美国资产规模最大的银行摩根大通(JPM.US)第四季度投行业务收入意外下滑，未能达成该行上月发布 的业绩指引。该行于美东时间周二发布第四季度财报，数据显示，Non-GAAP准则下Q4营收同比增长 7%至467.7亿美元，超出市场预期5.2亿美元;Non-GAAP每股盈利5.23美元，超出市场预期0.37美元。 摩根大通于周二拉开本轮银行业绩季序幕，美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团和摩根士丹利等 银行业巨头定于周三和周四陆续发布财报。在特朗普政策调整的推动下，预计该行业将录得有史以来第 二高的年度利润。 第四季度该行交易收入达到82.4亿美元，不仅超出分析师预估区间上限，股票与固定收益交易部门更是 双双跑赢市场预期。这为去年连续多个季度的强劲表现画上圆满句号，推动该业务全年总收入创下历史 新高。 投行业绩主要受到债务承销收入意外下滑2%的拖累，而此前市场普遍预期此项收入将实现19%的增 长。总部位于纽约的摩根大通在过去一年内已累计上涨33%，截至发稿，该股盘前微涨0.4%。 该行净利息收入表现强劲。去年前三季度，大型银行以金融危机以来最快速度扩张贷款规模，有力助推 了净利息收入增长。摩根大通四季度贷款余额 ...

智通财经获悉，银行财报季将于周二拉开序幕，摩根大通(JPM.US)和纽约梅隆银行(BK.US)率先发布，随后花旗集团(C.US)、富国银行(WFC.US)和美国银行 (BAC.US)将于周三公布业绩，高盛(GS.US)和摩根士丹利(MS.US)利则定于周四发布。 随着交易活动加速，投资银行业务收入预计将助力推动第四季度业绩。Dealogic数据显示，2025年全年全球投行业务收入同比增长15%至1030亿美元。并购 交易额同比增长42%至5.1万亿美元。 在第四季度每股收益的共识预期中，花旗集团在全球系统重要性银行中以同比增长21%位居前列；在信托银行类别中，纽约梅隆银行预期增长15%；在大型 区域性银行中，Citizens金融集团预期增幅达30%。 过去六个月中，每股收益共识预期上调幅度最大的是：全球系统重要性银行中的摩根士丹利(预期同比增长16%)、信托银行中的纽约梅隆银行(预期同比 7.1%)以及大型区域性银行中的美国合众银行。 尽管第四季度业绩本身很重要，但摩根士丹利分析师贝琪·格拉塞克在给客户的报告中指出："即将发布的业绩指引以及对资本市场复苏范围扩大的进一步确 认将更为重要。" 2025年第四季度 ...

Group 1: Earnings Reports and Expectations - The earnings season for banks will commence with JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon reporting on Tuesday, followed by Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday [1] - Consensus expectations for Q4 earnings per share (EPS) show Citigroup leading with a 21% year-over-year growth among global systemically important banks, while Bank of New York Mellon is expected to grow by 15% in the trust bank category [1] - The most significant upward revisions in EPS consensus over the past six months are for Morgan Stanley (16% growth), Bank of New York Mellon (7.1% growth), and U.S. Bancorp [1] Group 2: Investment Banking and Market Activity - Investment banking revenue is projected to support Q4 performance, with Dealogic forecasting a 15% year-over-year increase in global investment banking revenue to $103 billion and a 42% rise in M&A deal volume to $5.1 trillion [1] - Morgan Stanley's model predicts a 9% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees for Q4, slightly below the market expectation of 11%, while M&A advisory fees are expected to rise by 15% [2] - The trading revenue is anticipated to grow by 8% year-over-year, with equity trading expected to increase by 12%, surpassing the 5% growth forecast for fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities trading [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Insights - Analysts expect that transaction, wealth management, and investment banking will drive growth in 2026, with a slowdown in net interest income growth due to declining interest rates [3] - The banks with the best prospects for net interest income growth in the coming year are Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of New York Mellon, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are preferred in trading business [3] - In the M&A sector, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are viewed positively for their performance [3] Group 4: Accounting Changes and Financial Impact - Bank of America announced a change in accounting treatment related to tax-advantaged housing and renewable energy investments, which will minimally impact annualized net income [2] - Following the accounting change, Bank of America's retained earnings as of September 30, 2025, will decrease by $1.7 billion, reflecting cumulative effects from the timing differences in expense recognition [2]

Group 1: Strategic Growth Initiatives - The bank's strategic layout for the coming years will focus on non-interest income as a core growth engine, optimizing asset-liability structure, and exploring new growth points [2] - Key areas of focus include wealth management, investment banking (bond underwriting, asset securitization), and expanding supply chain finance [2] - The bank aims to enhance its digital banking capabilities and apply digital RMB, while maintaining strict risk control to ensure sustainable value creation for shareholders [2] Group 2: Credit Policy and Loan Quality - The bank's new credit policy for business loans prioritizes support for stable cash flow entities and merchants with good development prospects [3] - The proportion of collateralized and credit-based business loans is being monitored, with collateralized loans focusing on high-quality real estate [3] - Despite a decline in property prices, the bank assesses that the overall asset quality of business loans remains controllable due to rigorous pre-loan assessments and ongoing risk management [3]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投行业务有望回暖 券商投行在服务实体经济方面担当着至关重要的角色。 本报记者 于 宏 今年以来，在资本市场向好走势带动下，券商业绩表现亮眼。前三季度，43家A股上市券商合计净利润 同比增长62.48%。 在此背景下，基金等金融机构对券商的调研热情攀升。四季度以来截至12月7日，已有28家上市券商接 受机构调研，就国际化布局最新进展、投行业务特色战略等市场关切话题予以回应。 加速国际化布局脚步 当前，国际化市场日益成为中资券商开拓业绩增量的"必争之地"。今年以来，中资券商纷纷加速海外布 局步伐，力求打造新的业绩增长曲线，例如，11月份，国泰海通披露，该公司境外子公司将收购一家印 尼证券公司；10月份，东兴证券向在港子公司东兴香港增资3亿港元；此外，第一创业、西部证券等多 家券商纷纷宣布将在中国香港设立子公司以拓展业务。 在海外布局方面，综合实力雄厚的头部券商已构筑一定先发优势。招商证券国际业务坚持跨境融合发展 导向，采取"短期聚焦、中长期布局"的节奏推进，以做大中国香港市场为第一曲线，做强国际市场为第 二曲线。招商证券表示，未来将加快完善 ...

本报记者于宏 今年以来，在资本市场向好走势带动下，券商业绩表现亮眼。前三季度，43家A股上市券商合计净利润 同比增长62.48%。 在此背景下，基金等金融机构对券商的调研热情攀升。四季度以来截至12月7日，已有28家上市券商接 受机构调研，就国际化布局最新进展、投行业务特色战略等市场关切话题予以回应。 加速国际化布局脚步 当前，国际化市场日益成为中资券商开拓业绩增量的"必争之地"。今年以来，中资券商纷纷加速海外布 局步伐，力求打造新的业绩增长曲线，例如，11月份，国泰海通披露，该公司境外子公司将收购一家印 尼证券公司；10月份，东兴证券向在港子公司东兴香港增资3亿港元；此外，第一创业、西部证券等多 家券商纷纷宣布将在中国香港设立子公司以拓展业务。 在海外布局方面，综合实力雄厚的头部券商已构筑一定先发优势。招商证券国际业务坚持跨境融合发展 导向，采取"短期聚焦、中长期布局"的节奏推进，以做大中国香港市场为第一曲线，做强国际市场为第 二曲线。招商证券表示，未来将加快完善环球交易平台，提升数字化运营能力，打通跨境投资渠道；同 时，在海外布局方面采取差异化策略，推动韩国子公司业务多元化发展，探索切入东南亚市场，构建层 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is facing challenges due to narrowing net interest margins, with the net interest margin recorded at 1.43%, 1.42%, and 1.42% for the first three quarters of the year, indicating a need for transformation towards diversified revenue sources and value-driven strategies [1][2] Group 1: Net Interest Margin and Revenue Structure - The net interest margin is at historical lows, prompting banks to adjust their asset-liability management and revenue structures to overcome profitability challenges [1] - Non-interest income has been gradually increasing, particularly through investment income, which has become a key driver for banks in a declining interest rate environment [1] - The proportion of loans in total assets has risen from 45% at the end of 2016 to 58% by the end of 2024, reflecting effective asset structure adjustments [1] Group 2: Credit Allocation and Loan Growth - Recent policies have directed bank credit towards technology, green, and inclusive finance sectors, which are expected to yield stable returns, optimizing the loan allocation structure [1] - Loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises, green projects, and technology-oriented SMEs have been growing faster than total loan growth, with technology loans leading since 2025 [1] Group 3: Liability Structure and Deposit Management - Deposits remain a cornerstone for banks, with their proportion in total liabilities stabilizing around 81% by the end of 2024, aided by ongoing financial deleveraging [2] - Banks are adjusting deposit term structures to manage liability costs, including controlling long-term deposit interest rates and implementing quota restrictions [2] Group 4: Business Strategies for Revenue Enhancement - Banks are focusing on wealth management by creating a "product supermarket" to diversify offerings and enhance customer loyalty, thereby increasing revenue contributions [3] - Customized payment and settlement services are being developed to serve clients' supply chain needs, facilitating bulk customer acquisition [3] - In the capital market, banks are adjusting trading strategies and may invest in overseas high-yield bonds to address asset shortages [3] - Investment banking services are being sought in both domestic and international markets, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy support, such as technology [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in impairment losses, with brokerage and proprietary trading achieving high growth, while asset management business is at a turning point [1][4] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.11 billion yuan, up 54.8% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights a strong performance in brokerage and proprietary trading, with brokerage revenue reaching 2.38 billion yuan, up 49.1% year-on-year, and proprietary trading income improving significantly [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues and net profits for 2025-2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 24.25 billion yuan (2025E), 25.50 billion yuan (2026E), 26.54 billion yuan (2027E) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 6.88 billion yuan (2025E), 7.45 billion yuan (2026E), 7.94 billion yuan (2027E) [5][7] - The report indicates a weighted ROE of 6.35% for the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [4] Business Performance - The company’s brokerage business revenue exceeded 1 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a continuous increase in client asset scale [6] - The investment banking business showed high growth from a low base, with quarterly average revenue increasing from 2.92 million yuan in 2024 to 3.9 million yuan in 2025 [6] - The asset management business revenue for Q3 2025 was 3.72 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% and a year-on-year increase of 20% [6] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report raises profit forecasts and maintains a "Buy" rating, citing high growth in brokerage and proprietary trading as the main sources of performance increase, along with a recovery in investment banking and a turning point in asset management revenue [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in performance, with a 54% year-over-year increase in revenue to 20.76 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, and a 130% increase in net profit to 6.57 billion yuan [4][12] - The company benefits from a strong international business presence and a solid wealth management advantage, which are expected to further enhance its performance [13][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 9M2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.76 billion yuan, up 54% year-over-year, and net profit of 6.57 billion yuan, up 130% year-over-year [4][12] - The weighted average ROE was 6.29%, an increase of 3.65 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4][12] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 7.93 billion yuan, a 75% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 2.24 billion yuan, a 255% year-over-year increase [4][12] Business Segments - Brokerage business revenue for 9M2025 was 4.52 billion yuan, a 76.3% increase year-over-year, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 1.86 billion yuan, up 136% year-over-year [13] - Asset management revenue for 9M2025 was 1.06 billion yuan, a 26.6% increase year-over-year, with Q3 2025 revenue of 380 million yuan, up 35% year-over-year [13] - Investment banking revenue for 9M2025 was 2.94 billion yuan, a 42.5% increase year-over-year, with Q3 2025 revenue of 1.27 billion yuan, up 63% year-over-year [14] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.5 billion yuan, 27.4 billion yuan, and 30.3 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth rates of 19.4%, 7.4%, and 10.8% respectively [16] - Net profit projections for the same period are 9.1 billion yuan, 10.4 billion yuan, and 12.2 billion yuan, with growth rates of 60.6%, 13.3%, and 18.2% respectively [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, achieving record high quarterly results driven by proprietary trading, with a revenue of 228 billion yuan, up 56% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 558 billion yuan, representing a 33% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 232 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's return on equity (ROE), which reached 8.15%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 84,603 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.63% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 31,330 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.35% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.07 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.43 [6] Business Performance Breakdown - The brokerage segment generated 109.4 billion yuan in revenue, a 53% increase year-on-year, while investment banking and asset management also saw double-digit growth [7] - The company's total assets reached 2.03 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, an 18% increase from the previous year, with client funds growing by 31% [7] - The investment income for Q3 2025 was 122 billion yuan, marking a 47% year-on-year increase [7] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company maintained a leading position in the refinancing and bond underwriting markets, with a market share of 22.9% and 13.8% respectively [7] - The report notes that the company's market share in margin financing reached 8.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The asset management segment saw significant growth, with the company's fund management arm, Huaxia Fund, achieving a net profit of 8.66 billion yuan, contributing 2.3 billion yuan to the company's profits [7] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report raises the profit forecast for the company, expecting net profits of 313 billion yuan, 338 billion yuan, and 374 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 8%, and 11% [7]