真正引人注目的，是两位拜登任命的理事：迈克尔·巴尔和丽莎·库克。这两位理事的投票，尤其是库克的投票，将可能决定最终是否降息。而库克恰恰是特 朗普曾力图解雇的对象之一！特朗普曾多次尝试通过各种途径解雇库克，认为她的政策立场与自己的理念不符。这一举动曾引起政界和法庭的广泛关注，最 终法院决定于2025年1月对特朗普与库克的争议进行审理。 库克一直以关注劳动力市场问题而著称，她的立场较为温和，倾向于支持能够促进经济增长和就业的政策。尽管她对12月的降息持谨慎态度，但她的投票可 能成为这场决策的关键。如果库克选择支持降息，美联储就能获得足够支持票，最终实现降息目标。这一切，可能会成为特朗普此前努力解雇库克的"反作 用力"，局面无疑充满讽刺性。 美联储的决策远不止是一次简单的利率调整。它涉及的，不仅是经济数据、市场反应和通胀控制问题，更深层次的是美联储与美国政治的紧密联系，尤其是 特朗普在任期间对美联储的强烈干预。从特朗普曾尝试解雇库克，到她成为影响美联储政策的关键人物，整个过程充满复杂政治博弈和不可预测因素。 12月，美联储的降息决策即将成为全球经济关注的焦点。但谁能料到，这一次的决策背后，竟然有一场"政治博弈"—— ...

在阅读本文前，请您先点一下关注，这样方便您与我一起讨论和分享。作者定会继续按时创作出更多优 质内容，感谢支持！ **前言** 大家好，我是环球哥，今天来聊聊特朗普的一些离谱操作。前不久，他因人工智能话题引起 争议，紧接着又将自己推上了原告席，起诉自己。特朗普的操作从来都不让人意外，这位现任美国总统 通过他的法律团队，向自己领导的司法部提出行政索赔，要求获得2.3亿美元的赔偿。这个自导自演的 戏码立即引发了美国政坛的震动。 **2.3亿自告自审的荒诞戏码** 2025年10月21日，特朗普正式递交了索赔申请，金额确定为2.3亿美元。 令人耐人寻味的是，这时特朗普仍然是现任总统，这场诉讼表面上是对政府提起诉讼，实际上却是现任 总统起诉自己领导的行政分支。这种情况在美国200多年的历史中前所未见。 **赔偿金背后的计划** 这笔赔偿几乎已经是板上钉钉的事情。为了避免自肥的批评，特朗普宣称这笔 赔偿款项将用于慈善或者白宫修缮。巧合的是，他最近刚启动了白宫东翼的拆除工程，计划改建一个能 容纳500人的豪华舞厅，预算高达2.5亿美元，2.3亿赔偿金几乎能够覆盖大部分开支。这番说辞，听起来 更像是在为可能的公款挪用找借口。 ...

《华尔街日报》最新披露，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的律师本周一首次对其按揭贷款申请记录进行了详细辩护。这位律师坚称，贷款文件中看似 存在的"出入"要么在当时是完全准确的，要么仅仅是"无心之失的笔误"。他强调，考虑到库克女士向贷款机构提供的其他披露信息，这些所谓的"出入"根本 不可能构成欺诈行为。这番强硬回应，无疑为这场围绕美联储高官的争议，投下了一枚重磅炸弹，也让外界对事件的真相充满了好奇。 此前，美国总统特朗普（Donald Trump）曾以库克涉嫌按揭贷款欺诈为由，试图将她从美联储理事的职位上解雇。然而，库克本人一直坚决否认有任何不当 行为，并已通过法律途径对特朗普的解职企图发起挑战。令人瞩目的是，到目前为止，她的法律战取得了阶段性胜利。美国最高法院已经暂时阻止了特朗普 解除库克职务的尝试，并定于明年1月听取双方的辩论。这场高层权力斗争，正一步步走向白热化，吸引了全美乃至全球的目光。 针对安娜堡的房产，洛厄尔律师坚称，库克女士在2021年对其进行再融资时，将其描述为"主要住所"是完全准确无误的。他解释说，当时库克女士仍居住在 那里，并且受雇于密歇根州立大学（Michigan State U ...

特朗普的专机刚刚返回美国，参议院就进行了一次投票。最终，51票赞成，47票反对，决定停止执行全 球范围内的"全部关税"政策。这一结果非常明确，态度也十分直接。需要强调的是，这并不是一场技术 性的表决，而是向白宫发出了一个强烈的政治信号，暗示着围绕关税的国内耐性、共识以及利益分配已 经到了必须公开摊牌的时刻。尽管共和党在参议院占有优势，但仍有四名成员背离党派立场，和民主党 联合投反对票，这也反映出党内存在一定的裂痕，且不乏"建制派"的影子。特朗普虽然改变了党内生 态，但并不意味着每个人都心甘情愿地跟随他，尤其是当形势不利时，一些人选择撤退，这也是他在党 内控制力的体现。 需要澄清的是，参议院的决议并不意味着政策会立即失效。整个程序还在继续，提案需要提交到众议 院，并且必须通过众议长约翰逊设定的特别规则。这意味着，可能连全院表决的门槛都难以突破。即便 勉强通过，考虑到共和党在众议院的多数，且白宫仍然握有否决权，要想推翻总统的否决，需要国会三 分之二以上的绝对多数。而按照当前的席位分布，这几乎是不可能实现的。因此，虽然这次表决对政策 的实际效力影响不大，但却极大地改变了政治格局。 这次的投票首先对党内产生了警示效应 ...

美国政府停摆已经创下历史纪录，停摆一个多月，造成了严重后果。320万乘客因为航班延误或取消而行程受阻，数千万低收入家庭无法领取到他们赖以生 存的救济金，旅游业也因此损失了数十亿美元。民众的生活困难与经济受损的双重冲击，导致两党在国会的僵局依然没有打破。 那么，为什么这场"政治闹剧"会让整个国家为此付出代价呢？背后有哪些复杂的博弈？ 停摆带来的"双重痛苦"：民生困境与经济损失 停摆的影响已经不仅仅限于政府部门，它已经扩展到普通民众的生活。机场成了混乱的重灾区，根据美国运输安全管理局（TSA）的数据显示，停摆期间， 部分机场的工作人员缺勤率一度高达30%以上，造成多个机场的安检通道关闭，导致超过320万名乘客面临航班延误或取消。 例如，芝加哥奥黑尔机场一天就取消了超过200架次的航班。有些旅客被迫滞留在机场过夜，计划好的探亲和商务旅行也因此泡汤。 此外，公共安全领域也面临严重影响。美国司法部报告指出，由于基层联邦执法人员无薪工作，许多执法人员的工作积极性下降，部分边境巡逻站的响应时 间延长了超过30%。 更让人揪心的是食品援助问题。美国农业部的数据显示，超过3800万依赖"补充营养援助计划"（SNAP）的低收入家 ...

美国政府停摆30天，经济数据发布系统几乎全面瘫痪。 原定于10月底公布的第三季度GDP数据"难产"，就业、贸易与零售销售等关键统计也集体"失踪"。 这场数据荒让美联储、企业和投资者集体"盲飞"，美联储失去了利率决策的指南针，企业制定明年预算时无所适 从，金融市场则在迷雾中剧烈震荡。 更棘手的是，部分数据可能永久丢失。海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗指出，如果停摆持续，10月数据可 能因无法收集而"蒸发"，即使后期补采，也会因依赖民众回忆而变成"失真数据"。 这场危机暴露了美国经济体系的脆弱性，尽管私营机构也提供经济指标，但官方数据长期被视为"黄金标准"。 如今，企业不得不依赖零散的商业调查和卫星图像猜测经济走势，就像试图用玩具望远镜观测星空。 牛津经济研究院经济学家马修·马丁观察到，企业因不确定性已开始放缓招聘，特朗普政府的关税政策更是雪上加 霜。 高盛预测，若停摆持续至11月中旬，延迟发布的数据可能要到12月才能面世，届时统计失真将蔓延至11月。 连锁冲击：从企业损失到民生危机 政府停摆的代价正像多米诺骨牌般蔓延，美国商会报告显示，仅前四周，与联邦政府签约的企业已损失约120亿美 元，6.55万家小企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new round of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is unlikely to fundamentally ease in the short term, but both sides have the motivation to avoid a complete economic decoupling [1] Group 1: Trade Relations and Measures - Since the Madrid economic talks in September, the U.S. has continued to introduce a series of restrictive measures against China, including adding multiple Chinese entities to export control lists, which has severely damaged the atmosphere for trade talks [1] - On October 9, China announced export control measures on rare earths and other related items, while on October 10, the U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 [1][2] - The alternating threats and conciliatory remarks from the U.S. reflect a strategy to exert pressure while also attempting to calm market reactions to tariff threats [3] Group 2: Economic Impact and Strategic Considerations - China's export controls on rare earths are expected to significantly impact the U.S. military industry, indicating that U.S. attempts to suppress China will not succeed [2] - The U.S. faces political and economic obstacles in imposing high tariffs on China, as such measures would burden the U.S. economy and face opposition from the American business community [3] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China trade tensions is characterized by a coexistence of competition and cooperation, with structural contradictions remaining difficult to resolve [4] Group 3: Potential Areas for Cooperation - Non-traditional security cooperation, such as in climate change and public health, may become breakthrough areas for U.S.-China collaboration [4]

Core Points - The Trump administration has initiated unprecedented permanent layoffs of federal employees during a government shutdown, marking a significant departure from past practices of temporary furloughs [1][5][7] - The layoffs are part of a broader political strategy against the Democratic Party, with Trump threatening to permanently cut funding for projects in Democratic-supporting areas [2][8] - Legal challenges have emerged from unions representing federal employees, seeking to block the layoffs [3][9] Group 1: Layoff Details - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) confirmed that the layoffs, referred to as "reductions in force" (RIF), have begun and are substantial, affecting "thousands of federal workers" across multiple departments [1][5][4] - The layoffs are being justified by the administration as a means to save funds for maintaining essential services during the shutdown [7] Group 2: Political Context - The ongoing standoff between the Trump administration and the Democratic Party over key issues, such as healthcare subsidies, has led to multiple failed attempts to pass temporary funding bills [2] - Trump has indicated that the government shutdown will be used as leverage to cut Democratic-supported projects, further politicizing the situation [8] Group 3: Legal and Union Response - Unions representing federal employees have filed for a temporary restraining order in court to prevent the layoffs, with a hearing scheduled for October 16 [3][9] - Criticism has arisen from lawmakers regarding the ethics and legality of the layoffs, with some arguing that they are unjust and potentially unlawful [3] Group 4: Republican Party Dynamics - There is a divide within the Republican Party regarding the layoffs, with some leaders expressing caution and advocating for the protection of federal employees [10][11] - Despite the administration's stance, there are calls for ensuring that all employees receive back pay regardless of their work status during the shutdown [10]

Core Points - The Trump administration has initiated unprecedented permanent layoffs of federal employees during a government shutdown, marking a significant departure from past practices of temporary furloughs [1][3] - The layoffs are expected to affect thousands of federal workers across at least nine government departments, including the Department of Interior, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Education [1][3] - The layoffs are part of a broader political strategy by the Trump administration to pressure Democratic constituencies and are linked to ongoing budgetary disputes over key issues such as healthcare subsidies [4][5] Group 1: Layoff Details - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) confirmed that the reductions in force (RIF) have begun, with a spokesperson stating that the scale is "considerable" [3] - The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has already notified employees of layoffs, particularly targeting those not aligned with the Trump administration's health agenda [3] - The OMB had previously instructed officials to prepare for RIFs during the shutdown, focusing on projects that are not legally mandated or conflict with Trump’s policy priorities [5] Group 2: Political Context - The layoffs are seen as a tactic to exert pressure on Democratic districts, with significant funding for infrastructure and energy projects in Democratic-supporting states being suspended [4] - Trump has publicly stated that the government will use the shutdown to "permanently cut" projects supported by Democrats, indicating a strategic political maneuver [4] - There is a division within the Republican Party regarding the layoffs, with some leaders expressing caution and advocating for the protection of federal employees [6] Group 3: Future Implications - Over two-thirds of federal employees remain on the job, either as essential workers or due to available funding for their positions, while the rest are on furlough without pay [7] - The White House has indicated that if the shutdown continues, layoffs will be an unfortunate consequence, although they hope for a resolution [7] - Any layoff notices issued in the coming days may include a 60-day notification period before actual termination, suggesting potential for revisions to the layoff plans post-shutdown [7]

当白宫官网的倒计时钟一秒一秒地滴答响起，屏幕上的"民主党导致停摆"字样显得格外刺眼。很少有人注意到，这场美国内部的政治博弈不仅仅影响了美国 本土，也开始波及全球。 美国政府停摆，导致75万联邦公务员被迫无薪休假，而中美之间的多个合作项目也陷入停滞，涉及基建和新能源等领域的数十家中国企业因此受到影响。20 家中国企业因审批停滞、资金被冻结，面临着严重的运营压力。 本次停摆不仅是美国两党之间的较量，更让中外企业和普通民众都付出了看不见的代价。根据牛津经济研究院的最新报告，每当美国政府停摆一周，经济增 速就会放缓0.1到0.2个百分点，按日计算，损失可高达10亿美元。旅游业是受冲击最直接的行业，一周内就损失了超过10亿美元，酒店预订被取消，景区关 闭，旅游从业者收入锐减。 更直接的影响落在了普通人身上。每天75万联邦公务员无法按时领到薪水，他们背后是成千上万的家庭。纽约的一位居民表示，停摆导致他未能按时拿到工 资，结果上个月的房贷逾期了。他无奈地指出，两党在争斗中，最后受影响的还是普通劳动者。 停摆的影响不仅仅局限于美国。此前中美达成的多个合作项目，如新能源电池研发、跨境物流建设等，因美国联邦政府停摆而停滞不前。审 ...