Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, while silver is expected to break through and rise. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation. Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories. Tin and aluminum will fluctuate within a range. Alumina is driven by short - term sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trend**: The price of gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44, down 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 774.32, up 0.49% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 36,087 compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 2,732. The SPDR Gold ETF's position remained unchanged at 956.23 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The US court started oral arguments on Thursday, and the "reciprocal tariffs" face the "risk of cancellation" [5][9]. Silver - **Price and Trend**: Silver is expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195, down 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 9234.00, up 0.46% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 611,380 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 5,678. The SLV Silver ETF's position increased by 14 to 15,173.92 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trend**: Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,840, down 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 79090, up 0.32% [2][10]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 10,226 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,348. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 251 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. India is delaying new trade concessions. The US is considering a 50% tariff on copper imports starting next week [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22655, up 0.04%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2805.5, down 0.83% [2][13]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 65,890 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,845. The LME Zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [14]. Lead - **Price and Trend**: Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16900, down 0.09%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2017.5, down 0.15% [2][17]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 24,548 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,012. The LME Lead inventory increased by 6,700 [17]. - **News**: Sino - US will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The US job vacancies in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [18]. Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,660, down 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 268,050, up 0.26% [2][21]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 26,514 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,387. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 160 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, Sino - US tariff - related issues and other macro - events are mentioned [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trend**: Aluminum and alumina will fluctuate within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20605, down 10. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3307, up 64 [2][26]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 68,337 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 12,465. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged at 51.40 million tons [26]. - **News**: Trump set a new deadline for Russia to reach a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the price of crude oil rose by more than 4% during the session. Trump and Bessent stated that the US will issue long - term bonds after the interest rate drops [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trend**: Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800, up 180. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,920, up 80 [2][30]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 177,969 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,420. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract decreased by 211,230 compared to the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [30][31].

Core Points - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, discussed U.S.-EU trade agreements with EU officials, highlighting that digital services tax and perceived attacks on U.S. tech companies will be key topics in future negotiations [1] - Steel and aluminum, which were not included in the initial agreement, will also be part of the discussions [1] - The pharmaceutical and automotive industries are identified as critical sectors for reaching a trade agreement with the EU, with significant tariffs expected if pharmaceuticals are not produced in the U.S. [1] - Trump is expected to announce his pharmaceutical policy within the next two weeks [1]

美国商务部长卢特尼克的最新表态显示，美欧贸易协议谈判尚未结束，在欧美达成初步的框架协议后， 在一些关键领域仍需大量协商。数字服务税、钢铝贸易等多个议题仍待解决。 据新华社报道，苏格兰当地时间7月27日上周日，美国总统特朗普和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩共同宣 布，美欧达成新贸易协议，美国将对欧盟输美产品征收15%的关税。欧盟将对美增加6000亿美元投资及 购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源等。 美东时间7月29日周二，卢特尼克向媒体透露，他当天上午与欧盟的官员通话，双方讨论了未来谈判议 程。欧盟针对美国科技公司的数字服务税政策将成为谈判重点，同时，未纳入当前协议的钢铁和铝产品 贸易也将是谈判议题。 这一表态表明，尽管特朗普与冯德莱恩上周末已达成框架协议，但多个关键领域仍存在不确定性。这些 悬而未决的问题可能影响投资者对美欧贸易关系稳定性的信心。 欧美将讨论数字服务税和钢铝贸易问题 欧美寻求8月1日前敲定联合声明阐明部分协议内容 本周二媒体援引欧盟高官的消息称，欧美双方目前寻求在8月1日前敲定一份不具法律约束力的联合声 明，进一步阐明上周末谈判达成的部分内容。一旦声明最终确定，美国将开始降低对欧盟特定行业的关 税。 据 ...

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and EU, while appearing as a truce, is characterized as an "asymmetrical" deal where the EU commits to significant future energy purchases and investments in exchange for a relatively lenient tariff environment [3][5] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to purchase up to $750 billion in energy products from the US over the coming years, alongside an additional $600 billion investment commitment, which is seen as a substantial benefit for the US [5] - The agreement does not signify the end of US-EU trade disputes but may herald a new round of negotiations, as evidenced by past tensions and tariff threats from the Trump administration [5][7] Group 2 - The EU's negotiating position appears weak due to its own economic challenges, as retaliatory tariffs could harm European consumers and specific industries, particularly in countries like France and Italy [7] - There are significant discrepancies in the interpretation of key details of the agreement, particularly regarding tariffs on steel and aluminum, indicating a lack of true consensus on core issues [8] - The agreement highlights Europe's vulnerability due to over-reliance on a single trade partner, raising concerns about the need for strategic autonomy and diversification of trade relationships [11]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. President Trump's abrupt halt in trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's proposed "digital services tax" on U.S. tech companies, which Trump labeled as a "blatant attack" [1] - The U.S. decision has thrown U.S.-Canada relations back into turmoil, despite previous agreements made during the G7 meeting to reach a new economic deal within 30 days [1] - As the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" approaches its end, countries like Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariff issues [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for its unilateral imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" since April, which they argue undermines the multilateral trade system and disrupts normal international trade order [3] - The number of countries reaching tariff agreements with the U.S. is significantly lower than expected, with only Vietnam and the UK making progress, while others remain in prolonged negotiations or adopt a wait-and-see approach [3] - Trump's frustration is evident as he publicly expressed concerns about the complexity of negotiations with over 170 countries still without agreements [3] Group 3 - Japan and South Korea are engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations with the U.S., but internal conflicts within Trump's team have complicated the discussions, leaving Japan uncertain about U.S. demands [5] - Despite the challenges, both Japan and South Korea are committed to pursuing trade agreements, with India's Prime Minister Modi also expressing a desire to resolve differences during his visit to the U.S. [5] - There are indications that Trump may visit China in the coming months with a large delegation of U.S. business leaders, aiming to focus on trade cooperation rather than conflict [5] Group 4 - In a recent interview, Trump stated that the U.S. is managing its relationship with China well, despite ongoing accusations against China regarding hacking and intellectual property theft [7] - The complexity of U.S.-China relations is attributed to extreme tendencies within the U.S. diplomatic decision-making, which have led to a misjudgment of the situation and potential crises [7] - The interdependence of U.S. and Chinese enterprises is highlighted as a stabilizing factor, suggesting that the trade war may conclude with the U.S. adopting a more conciliatory approach [7]

Group 1 - The trade conflict between Canada and the U.S. escalated after Canada announced a 25% tariff on U.S. imports that do not comply with the USMCA agreement, particularly targeting American automobiles [3] - Canada plans to impose a 3% digital services tax on major tech companies like Amazon, META, Google, and Apple, retroactively applying it to revenues exceeding $14.3 million since 2022 [3] - The economic disparity between Canada and China is highlighted, with China's GDP projected to be over seven times that of Canada in 2024, indicating Canada's limited capacity to confront the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Following Canada's firm stance, the U.S. responded by halting all trade negotiations until Canada retracts the digital services tax, with potential annual retaliatory tariffs of $2 billion on Canadian goods if investigations reveal subsidization or dumping [7] - Canada took measures against Chinese company Hikvision, citing national security concerns, which appears to be an attempt to gain favor with the U.S. despite lacking specific evidence of threat [7] - China has expressed strong opposition to any actions that sacrifice its interests for U.S. concessions, indicating potential repercussions for Canada's recent decisions [10]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. is using "reciprocal tariffs" as a negotiation tool to encourage trade partners to increase purchases of American goods and enhance supply chain security[2] - Countries like India, Pakistan, and Switzerland are likely to reach trade agreements with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, and South Korea are still in negotiations[2][21] - The U.S. has clarified its demands in trade negotiations, which will be crucial for reaching agreements by the July 9 deadline[4] Group 2: Trade Deficits and Tariff Rates - The trade deficit with China stands at $295.40 billion, with a proposed reciprocal tariff rate of 34%[5] - The EU has a trade deficit of $235.57 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 20%[5] - India has a trade deficit of $45.66 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 26%[24] Group 3: Economic Objectives - The U.S. aims to reduce its trade deficit primarily by increasing exports of energy and agricultural products, which account for about 28% of total exports[8] - The Trump administration seeks to reduce overseas spending and has linked trade policies to military spending commitments from NATO allies[12][13] - Strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience is a key goal, especially in critical sectors like semiconductors and medical supplies[16] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding "reciprocal tariffs" may decrease, but the Trump administration retains tools like Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, indicating ongoing trade policy uncertainty[2][30] - Non-U.S. countries are showing a willingness to compromise to reach trade agreements, while those failing to negotiate may face higher tariffs[30]

Group 1 - The article highlights the urgency among Japan, India, and the EU to negotiate with the US as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, with Merkel's comments serving as a wake-up call for the EU [1] - Merkel criticizes Trump's tariff policy, warning that it could ultimately harm American citizens and lead to an economic crisis, as evidenced by declining manufacturing orders and agricultural exports [3] - Merkel advises the EU to adopt a firm stance against the US, suggesting that they should respond with equal countermeasures if the US imposes further tariffs [3] Group 2 - The EU is prepared with countermeasures, demanding that the US first remove tariffs before any agreements can be made, rejecting the US's proposal for a phased agreement [5] - The EU has outlined two significant countermeasures: a €21 billion tariff and a more substantial €95 billion tariff targeting various American exports, including Boeing and California wine [7] - The EU's digital services tax, aimed at US tech giants, has sparked tensions, with France implementing a 3% tax and the US threatening retaliatory tariffs on French goods [7] Group 3 - The article suggests that the tariff disputes between the US and EU are symptomatic of a larger crisis, indicating a gradual decline of the Western alliance system established post-World War II [9] - The changing global dynamics have led European nations to reconsider their reliance on the US, emphasizing the need for strategic autonomy and multilateral cooperation [10] - The ongoing tariff conflict serves as a critical test for US-EU relations, prompting Europe to evaluate its future path in the evolving international order [10]

Tax and Spending Bill - The core provisions aim to make permanent the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by the Trump administration in December 2017, locking the corporate tax rate at 21% and permanently raising the estate tax exemption to $15 million, while maintaining a 37% individual tax rate for those earning over $500,000 [1] - The designed tax structure is presented as a means to "stimulate investment and create jobs," but evidence suggests that the wealth gap will widen, with the top 10% of households seeing a 2% increase in assets, while the bottom 10% will experience a 4% decrease due to welfare cuts [1] Food Stamp Reform - Daily benefits have been reduced from $5.90 to $4.80, leading to a 21% cut in welfare in Democratic-led states like Oregon, resulting in a 40% increase in families seeking assistance within a week of the bill's passage [2] - At least 16 states have joined in a lawsuit against the related provisions, with the Supreme Court potentially intervening [2] Tax Exemption for Tips - This provision is part of Trump's 2024 campaign promises, ostensibly benefiting 6 million service workers, but it primarily allows restaurant owners earning $400,000 annually to save an average of $27,000 in taxes, while servers gain less than $800 [3] Defense Budget Increase - The defense budget has risen to a historic high of $895 billion, with $20 billion allocated directly to the "Iron Dome" missile defense system, reflecting a trend of reallocating funds from social welfare to military spending [4] Enforcement Measures on Foreign Taxation - The bill authorizes the Treasury Secretary to impose punitive tariffs on countries implementing a "digital services tax" or "global minimum tax," viewed as a "nuclear option" or retaliatory tax by the Trump administration [5]

Group 1 - The trade relationship between the US and Canada shows signs of easing, but this positive development has not had the expected uplifting effect on the Canadian dollar exchange rate, which is currently fluctuating around 1.3650 against the US dollar [1][2] - The Canadian government has announced the cancellation of the digital services tax, which paves the way for the resumption of trade negotiations between the two countries. This decision ends a heated dispute over the tax, which was set to impose a 3% tax on revenues from digital services provided to Canadian users by tech companies [2] - The US government strongly opposed the digital services tax, arguing that it primarily affects large American tech companies such as Amazon and Google, and previously threatened to halt all trade negotiations with Canada [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis of the USD/CAD exchange rate indicates significant resistance, with the price facing selling pressure each time it approaches the 20-day exponential moving average. The relative strength index is hovering around 40, and a drop below this level would signal further bearish sentiment [3] - The key support level is at the June 16 low of 1.3540, and if this level is breached, it could open up a decline towards the psychological level of 1.3500 [3] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is a central focus for the market, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the July meeting, while a 25 basis point rate cut in September has been fully priced in [3]