雅砻江专题汇报：看好国投&川投低位布局机会 20260107 摘要 川投集团本质上是一个投资平台，其投资收益占利润规模比例接近 100%。从 构成来看，大部分收益来自雅砻江，还有少量来自大渡河及其他投资项目。从 历史业绩来看，川投集团与雅砻江公司的产能投入高度相关。第一次利润端跨 越式增长发生在 2013-2014 年景观电源组投产期间；第二次系统性提升发生 在 2022-2023 年两河口、杨房沟项目投入运营期间。此外，从 2025 年开始 推进四川两家能源主体整合，即四川投资集团与四川能源集团合并，也为未来 资产整合带来进一步预期。 国投集团目前资产构成及其发展情况如何？ 历史数据显示，水电板块在达到历史高点后的一段时间内，通常表现出 较好的绝对收益和赔率。尽管当前息差处于高位，但受市场风险偏好影 响，水电板块表现平淡，但这并不改变其具备绝对收益的判断。 长江电力成长性相对较弱，未来两年成长性预期较低，长期复合收益预 期为 3.5%-3.6%的股息率加上约 3%的成长性。国投电力和川投能源的 成长预期明显优于长江电力，能达到接近 10%甚至超过 10%的水平。 川投集团本质上是一个投资平台，投资收益占利润 ...

2026 电力行业年度策略：火绿重构，水核筑基，燃气优 化 20260106 摘要 2025 年电力板块整体表现一般，但火电受益于煤价下跌利润增长显著， 新能源受 136 号文影响表现突出但业绩承压，水电基本面平稳，核电估 值抬升但受政策影响业绩受限。煤价从 2024 年的 860 元/吨降至 700 元/吨左右，火电企业盈利因此受益。 2025 年用电需求结构变化明显，二产用电增速放缓拖累整体，三产及 城乡居民用电高增长拉动。信息类行业快速发展对三产用电影响显著， 建筑业等二产领域则对整体产业用电产生负面影响。未来制造业用电维 稳和信息类行业发展有望拉动整体用电需求。 2024-2025 年新能源装机维持高增，风光装机总量约 400GW。大量火 电竞指标将在未来 2-3 年内逐步投产，预计 2025、2026 年火电投放量 将分别达到 70GW 以上，导致电力供给相对宽松局面持续到 2027 年前 后。 电力市场改革持续推进，标杆电价改为浮动电价，2025 年浮动范围维 持正负 20%。全国统一电力市场政策将火电和新能源全面推向市场化。 部分地区机制电价竞价情况优于预期，但新能源资源过剩地区面临较大 压力。 ...

□ 本报记者倪敏 年度关键词:新能源装机"破亿" 【年度故事】元旦假期最后一天，返程的高铁上，我靠着椅背，指尖划过手机里过去一年抓拍的300多 个瞬间——缓缓转动的风车、连绵的光伏板、国网江苏电力调度控制中心大屏跃动的负荷曲线……2025 年，江苏的新能源装机在长三角地区率先突破1亿千瓦。这一年我循着新能源脉络走过10余座城市，"1 亿千瓦"这个宏观的数字，化为一个个具体而微观的时刻，让我印象深刻。 去年12月，如东海滩，清晨的寒气仿佛要渗进骨头里。我跟着供电公司95后"飞手"杨一洲去巡检无人机 机巢，远处海面上，一排排风机在朦胧的晨光里转动。小杨蹲在地上熟练地操作设备，屏幕亮起，输电 线路的温度通过红外影像清晰地呈现出来。"看那边，转一圈，就是3度电。"他指着海的方向说。我忽 然明白，原来新闻里常写的"绿电"，其生命线就藏在这片冻到人发抖的滩涂上；这日复一日平凡的守 护，将无形的海风，变成千家万户随时可以点亮的一盏灯。 听说到"十五五"末，作为江苏海上风电主阵地之一的如东，装机容量要达到1000万千瓦，继续领跑全 国。这片海承载的，不仅是风浪波涛，更是愈发清晰的绿电未来。从海风凛冽的滩涂转身，向内陆的乡 村 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, a hydropower platform under China Datang Group, demonstrates strong profitability and dividend advantages, primarily focusing on hydropower resources in Guangxi region [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is controlled by China Datang Group and is positioned as a hydropower resource integration platform in Guangxi, with a total installed capacity of 13.9013 million kilowatts as of the end of 2024 [1] - The core hydropower assets consist of six cascade power stations in the Hongshui River basin, accounting for 83% of the total hydropower capacity [1] - Hydropower is the main source of revenue and profit, contributing over 70% to revenue and over 85% to gross profit in normal years [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's return on equity (ROE) from 2020 to 2024 ranges from 6.59% to 17.98%, generally above the industry average [1] - The average dividend payout ratio from 2020 to 2024 is high at 81%, indicating strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns [1] Group 3: Hydropower Market Dynamics - In 2025, the company expects an increase in electricity generation due to the first full reservoir since the establishment of Longtan, with positive outlooks for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2] - The electricity price has been steadily increasing since the cancellation of the water power benefit policy in Guangxi in 2021, reflecting a low marketization level [2] - The company benefits from a significant reduction in financing costs, with the comprehensive financing cost dropping from 4.28% in 2020 to 2.28% in 2024 [2] Group 4: Dividend Potential - The company is projected to have theoretical dividend payout ratios of 67%, 74%, and 86% for 2025-2027, based on capital expenditure and debt repayment assumptions [3] - Historical performance shows that even in adverse conditions, such as low water levels in 2023, the company increased its dividend payout ratio to 129%, maintaining a stable dividend per share [3] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.93 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.5%, 5.7%, and 8.5% respectively [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected to be 18.19x and 2.73x, respectively, which are higher than comparable companies, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4] - The estimated fair value per share ranges from 7.45 to 10.76 yuan, with a central value of 8.87 yuan, leading to a "recommended" rating for investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that by December 31, 2025, its direct and holding companies' power plants achieved a cumulative electricity generation of 46.142 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.68% [1] Summary by Category Electricity Generation - The total electricity generation reached 46.142 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 26.68% [1] - Hydropower generation accounted for 41.568 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 35.92% [1] - Thermal power generation was 1.092 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 58.89% [1] - Wind power generation totaled 1.967 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.42% [1] - Photovoltaic power generation reached 1.515 billion kilowatt-hours, indicating a year-on-year increase of 34.43% [1] Factors Influencing Growth - The growth in electricity generation is primarily attributed to increased water inflow in the company's main hydropower plants and the expansion of new energy installed capacity [1]

光伏：国家发改委召开价格无序竞争座谈会，制定成本认定标准。11 月24 日，国家发展改革委会同有 关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作。会议指出，目前部 分行业价格无序竞争问题仍然突出，一些企业对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到位，甚至依然存在扰 乱市场价格秩序的行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治理企业价格无序竞争， 维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。这有助于光伏产业链各环节价格回归理性，行业实现可持续 发展。核心关注三大方向：1）供给侧改革下的产业链涨价机会，核心关注通威股份、隆基绿能、晶澳 科技、晶科能源、天合光能等；2）新技术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注迈为股份、爱旭 股份、聚和材料等；3）钙钛矿GW 级布局带来的产业化机会，核心关注金晶科技、万润股份、捷佳伟 创、帝尔激光、京山轻机、德龙激光、曼恩斯特等。 新能源车：龙蟠科技与楚能新能源签订130 万吨铁锂订单，对应近600GWh 的电池需求。11 月24 日， 龙蟠科技控股子/孙公司与楚能新能源全资子公司签署《生产材料采购合同协议之补充协议二》，将原 于2025 年5 月9 日签署的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The report highlights that in November, the newly installed capacity for photovoltaic (PV) was 22.02 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. As of the end of November 2025, the total installed capacity for PV reached 116 million kW, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. For the period from January to November 2025, the domestic PV newly installed capacity was 274.89 GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 33% [5] - For wind power, the newly installed capacity in November was 12.49 GW, a year-on-year increase of 110%. The total installed capacity for wind power reached approximately 60 million kW by the end of November 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. From January to November 2025, the domestic wind power newly installed capacity was 82.50 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59% [5] - The report indicates that from January to November, power generation investment decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, while grid investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment across the country were 2858 hours, a decrease of 289 hours compared to the same period last year [5] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - November's newly installed PV capacity was 22.02 GW, down 12% year-on-year. Total installed capacity reached 116 million kW, up 41.9% year-on-year. For the first 11 months of 2025, newly installed capacity was 274.89 GW, up 33% year-on-year [5] Wind Power Sector - November's newly installed wind power capacity was 12.49 GW, up 110% year-on-year. Total installed capacity reached approximately 60 million kW, up 22.4% year-on-year. For the first 11 months of 2025, newly installed capacity was 82.50 GW, up 59% year-on-year [5] Investment Insights - Power generation investment decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, while grid investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2858 hours, down 289 hours year-on-year [5] - The report suggests that the demand for new energy installations is expected to continue to grow in the long term, maintaining the "Recommended" rating for the industry [5]

（文章来源：新华社） 人民财讯11月26日电，11月24日，哈密-重庆±800千伏特高压配套新能源项目首批837万千瓦并网送电。 哈密新能源装机突破3200万千瓦，总装机达4579万千瓦，新能源占比超70.5%。 ...

华龙证券近日发布电力设备行业动态点评报告：10月光伏新增装机12.60GW，同比-38%。截至2025年 10月底，光伏装机容量11.4亿千瓦，同比增长43.8%。2025年1-10月，国内光伏新增装机252.87GW，同 比+39%。10月份，国内光伏新增装机12.60GW，同比-38%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件： 投资：1-10月电源投资同比+0.7%，电网投资同比+7.2%。1-10月份，全国发电设备累计平均利用2619小 时，比上年同期降低260小时；全国主要发电企业电源工程完成投资7218亿元，同比增长0.7%；电网工 程完成投资4824亿元，同比增长7.2%。 国家能源局发布10月份全国电力工业统计数据。 投资建议：行业方面，新能源装机需求长期有望持续增长。维持行业"推荐"评级。个股方面，建议关注 光伏龙头隆基绿能、爱旭股份、晶科能源、阿特斯、TCL中环等，建议关注盈利性较强的逆变器及储能 环节，阳光电源、德业股份、上能电气等，虚拟电厂业务标的国能日新、安科瑞等。 观点： 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险，政策不及预期，装机进度不及预期，成本大幅波动，电价大幅下行，利 用小时数波动，行业竞争加剧，重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the optimistic outlook for the energy storage sector, predicting significant growth in lithium battery and material shipments and price adjustments due to unexpected increases in energy storage demand [1][4]. Group 1: Energy Storage - The global energy storage demand is expected to surge, driven by the economic advantages of energy storage solutions, leading to a new cycle in the lithium battery industry [2][4]. - Domestic energy storage installations are projected to reach 300 GWh next year, contributing to a total lithium battery demand exceeding 2700 GWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4][5]. - The report anticipates that by Q4 2026, capacity utilization rates for key materials such as 6F, LFP, separator, and copper foil will reach 106%, 96%, 98%, and 95% respectively, indicating potential tightness in supply [1][5]. Group 2: Lithium Batteries - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with domestic energy storage installations projected to double by 2026 and global energy storage battery shipment demand reaching 943 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68% [5]. - The overall global lithium battery demand is forecasted to reach 2716 GWh by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% [5]. - Material supply constraints are anticipated due to a slowdown in production expansion among industry players, with current capacity utilization rates exceeding 75% and expected to surpass 80% by mid-2026 [5]. Group 3: Power Equipment - The export market for power equipment is experiencing high demand, particularly in North America and the Middle East, with core companies seeing significant growth in their export businesses [7]. - Domestic high-voltage equipment orders are robust, supporting a strong performance outlook for the industry in 2025 and beyond [7]. Group 4: Wind Power - The wind power industry is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on overseas markets, particularly offshore wind, expected to see significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [8]. - The domestic wind power market is anticipated to improve, with a healthy recovery in pricing and profitability expected [8]. Group 5: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with improvements in profitability across most segments, particularly in the silicon material sector [9]. - Ongoing policies aimed at controlling production and sales in the silicon material sector are expected to lead to further industry consolidation [9]. Group 6: AIDC Power Distribution - The demand for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant capital investments from major internet companies [10]. - The trend towards higher power density and the adoption of advanced power supply solutions, such as the 800V system, is driving innovation in the sector [10].