Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in China's photovoltaic (PV) installation capacity in June 2025, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 38.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 84.6% due to the end of the "531" policy's rush to install [1][3] - The cumulative PV installation capacity in China reached 1.1 TW by the end of June 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 54.2% [1] - The article predicts that the new PV installations in 2025 will total approximately 255 GW, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [3][6] Installation Trends - In the first half of 2025, the market experienced a surge in installations due to the release of two key notifications by the National Energy Administration, which ignited a rush to install PV systems [3][6] - The peak installation month was May 2025, with a record of 92.9 GW installed, following which the installation rate dropped significantly in June [3][6] Policy Impact - The "Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Development and Construction Management Measures" and the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid Connection Prices" are pivotal in shaping the market dynamics [3][7] - The article notes that 21 provinces have already met their "14th Five-Year Plan" PV installation targets ahead of schedule, indicating regional disparities in progress [6][7] Future Projections - The article anticipates that the growth rate of PV installations will continue to slow down in 2025, influenced by factors such as grid capacity limitations and policy changes [6][7] - Despite the expected slowdown, the PV market in China is projected to remain at a high level globally, supported by ongoing large-scale project developments and the implementation of local PV grid connection policies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant progress and transformative changes, establishing China as a stable and reliable force in global development [1] Economic Strength - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP has consistently crossed milestones of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected reach of around 140 trillion yuan this year, contributing over 30% to global economic growth [2] - The average economic growth rate over the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" was 5.5%, showcasing resilience amid various challenges [2] - China remains the world's largest manufacturing power, goods trading nation, and foreign exchange reserve holder, with the largest middle-income group and social security system [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand has been the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 86.4% to economic growth during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Final consumption contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Investment has played a crucial role in optimizing supply structure, with high-tech industry investment growth outpacing overall investment growth [3] Security Foundations - The security foundations in food, energy, industry, and national defense have been strengthened, with food production achieving a record of 1.4 trillion jin [4] - China has built the world's largest power infrastructure system, with a power generation capacity accounting for one-third of the global total [4] - The energy self-sufficiency rate remains above 80%, ensuring energy supply for over 1.4 billion people [4] Green Development - China's forest coverage rate has increased to over 25%, contributing to a quarter of the world's new greening area [5] - Air quality has improved, with the proportion of days with good air quality stabilizing at around 87% [5] - The scale of renewable energy generation has surpassed that of coal, establishing the largest clean power generation system globally [5] Innovation and Technology - R&D expenditure is expected to grow by nearly 50% by 2024 compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan [7] - China has the largest R&D workforce globally and leads in the number of high-tech enterprises, with over 460,000 [7] - The production of integrated circuits is projected to increase by 72.6%, adding approximately 190 billion units [9] Institutional Advantages - The welfare of the population has improved, with stable participation rates in education, healthcare, and social security systems [10] - The business environment has improved, with significant reductions in restrictions on foreign investment and an increase in the number of private enterprises [11] - China's commitment to global green development and cooperation has expanded, with a reduction of 11.6% in energy consumption per unit of GDP over four years [12]

Group 1 - China's total installed photovoltaic capacity has surpassed 1,000 gigawatts, marking a significant advancement in the development of renewable energy [15] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved 322 projects since its establishment, with total financing exceeding $60 billion, which has mobilized over $200 billion for infrastructure development [20] - The Ministry of Finance announced a funding support of 2.28 billion yuan for 90 inclusive finance development demonstration zones, aiming to promote the growth of inclusive finance loans [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Insights - In April 2025, domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity surged to 45.22GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 215% and a month-on-month increase of 123% [12][13] - From January to April 2025, the total newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 104.93GW, up 75% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential in the domestic photovoltaic market [12][13] - The report highlights a significant recovery in inverter exports to Europe, with April 2025 inverter export volume reaching approximately 28.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 31% [3][39] Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic Photovoltaic Installation and Export Data - April 2025 saw a record high in domestic photovoltaic installations at 45.22GW, with a total of 104.93GW installed from January to April 2025, reflecting a 75% year-on-year growth [12][13] - Battery component exports in April 2025 amounted to 161.6 billion yuan, down 9% month-on-month, while inverter exports improved significantly, reaching 58.2 billion yuan, up 28% month-on-month [14][34] Section 2: Market Performance - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry remains resilient, with a strong performance in newly installed capacity and inverter exports, particularly to emerging markets in Asia and Africa [20][37] - The overall market sentiment is reflected in the performance of the industry indices, with the photovoltaic equipment sector experiencing a decline of 3.19% [66][66] Section 3: Price Trends in the Photovoltaic Supply Chain - The report provides insights into the pricing of key materials in the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating stable prices for polysilicon and silicon wafers, while battery cell prices showed slight declines [4][4] - The pricing trends for photovoltaic glass and EVA films also reflect minor fluctuations, suggesting a stable supply chain environment [4][4]