全球央行政策分化正加速显现。美联储在延续降息路径的同时，欧洲、加拿大、日本、澳洲、新西兰等央行却普遍维持紧缩倾向，甚至步入加息 通道。货币政策的背离预计将在2026年通过汇率市场形成显著影响，美元面临的贬值压力成市场焦点，可能成为影响欧央行政策走向的关键外部 变量。 当地时间周三，美联储如预期降息25个基点。高盛分析师Rich Privorotsky最新研报指出，尽管市场因鲍威尔对中性利率的审慎表态及会议出现多 张反对票而滋生鹰派预期，但本次决议实际传递出鸽派基调。 与此形成鲜明对比的是，欧洲央行官员明确表示不会密切关注美联储降息。法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦·德加豪近日明确表示，"认为欧洲央行会亦步 亦趋跟随美联储是一种误解"，并指出"欧洲的货币政策立场已比美国更显宽松"。 欧洲央行多位官员在美联储12月议息会议前后密集发声，强调其货币政策独立性。法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦·德加豪上周五表示，欧洲央行应保持降 息选项，但"不应因美联储的行动而放弃自身政策节奏"。 欧洲央行执行委员会委员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔在接受采访时进一步指出："美国货币政策态势的变化不会对欧洲央行产生直接影响。我们依据欧元 区自身的数据和分析独立制定政策 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar is expected to decline next year due to the anticipated further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will lower hedging costs [1][2] - The forecast includes a prediction of a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.22 by the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by increased growth expectations in the Eurozone due to German fiscal stimulus [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks a significant shift in monetary policy, which is expected to have profound effects on European financial markets and economic trends [1]. Group 1: Impact on European Markets - Historical data suggests that European stock markets tend to perform well in the 3 to 6 months following a Federal Reserve rate cut, primarily due to increased market liquidity and more available investment funds [3]. - The rate cut is likely to lead to an appreciation of the euro against the dollar, positively impacting the European financial market and alleviating some debt pressures faced by EU member states [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications for the EU - While the rate cut may enhance the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets and reduce the import costs of energy and raw materials priced in dollars, it also poses risks to the EU economy [5]. - European export products may become more expensive, potentially harming export-oriented industries as they struggle to compete with cheaper goods, particularly from the U.S., which could negatively affect EU economic growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The European luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges due to currency fluctuations and tariff policies, leading to a decline in stock prices for major luxury groups and a slowdown in market growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major luxury groups such as LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, and Kering have seen stock price declines of 26.31%, 17.98%, 19.84%, and 13.33% respectively over the past six months [3]. - The MSCI Europe Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods Total Return Index has dropped 17% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 27% [3]. - NDR's report indicates that the luxury goods sector's growth is slowing, partly due to the fading benefits of favorable exchange rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Results - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue and a 22% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with recurring operating profit down 15% [7]. - Kering's second-quarter sales fell 15% to €3.7 billion, with Gucci's sales down 25% to €1.46 billion [7]. - Hermès experienced an 8% sales growth in the first half, significantly lower than the 15% growth reported in the previous year [7]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing deeper structural challenges, including weak consumer confidence and brand value dilution, leading to a loss of approximately 50 million consumers over the past two years [11][12]. - The Z generation has seen a 7% decline in sales, equating to a loss of $5.7 billion in consumption, marking the largest drop among all generations [11]. - High-net-worth individuals are becoming more discerning in their luxury purchases, focusing on value and personalized services [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Bernstein has revised its global luxury goods revenue growth forecast for 2025 from an increase of 5% to a decrease of 2% [12]. - UBS estimates that luxury brands have increased prices by an average of 33% from 2019 to 2023, which may have overstretched market tolerance [12]. - Following a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, a 15% baseline tariff on luxury goods imported from Europe is expected to raise prices in the U.S. by an average of 2% and globally by about 1% [12].

Group 1 - The euro to US dollar exchange rate reached 1.171 on June 26, the highest level since September 2021, following a breakthrough of 1.16 on June 24 [1][2] - The European Central Bank's reference rate for the euro to dollar on June 26 was 1.1695 [2] - Many economists believe the US dollar may continue to weaken due to erratic government policies, which have further undermined market confidence in the dollar [2] Group 2 - The recent exchange rate changes are primarily attributed to the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, leading to a passive appreciation of the euro [2] - The rise of the euro against the dollar is not due to strengthening European economic fundamentals, but rather a result of large-scale sell-offs of dollar assets [2] - The euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not concerned about the appreciation of the euro, as stated by President Christine Lagarde, who emphasized that while exchange rates are not a target, they are considered in inflation forecasts [1]. Group 1 - Analysts note that Lagarde did not provide further details on the ECB's stance regarding the euro's exchange rate [1]. - The ECB's current position indicates a lack of immediate concern over the euro's strength [1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its current monetary policy, which aligns with market expectations. However, there are concerns regarding the potential for interest rate cuts if the euro continues to appreciate significantly [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady was anticipated by market participants [1] - The ongoing press conference is addressing the implications of the euro's strength on future monetary policy decisions [1] - There is speculation about whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will consider reinitiating interest rate cuts in response to a stronger euro [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, marking the first time since June of the previous year that it has not made any adjustments [1] Group 1: Interest Rates - The ECB has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - This decision reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid ongoing US-EU trade negotiations and the unclear impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that there is internal disagreement within the ECB regarding the future monetary policy path [1] - Investors generally anticipate that the ECB may lower interest rates once more before the end of the year, potentially in December [1] Group 3: Currency Considerations - The appreciation of the euro is also a significant factor influencing the ECB's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from MUFG express that the European Central Bank's (ECB) concerns regarding the recent appreciation of the euro are unlikely to prevent its continued strength [1] Group 1: ECB Concerns - The ECB's increasing unease about the euro's recent appreciation may suppress its upward momentum in the short term [1] - However, such concerns are not expected to trigger a sustained decline in the euro's value [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite the potential for a stronger euro to lead to lower inflation, market participants have shown decreased confidence in the ECB's likelihood of further rate cuts this year [1] - The threat of U.S. tariffs has not significantly influenced market expectations for additional rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar, with recent developments in trade negotiations and economic indicators influencing its value [2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is currently around 1.1674, down 0.21% from the previous close of 1.1699, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 13% [1]. - Over the past month, the euro has appreciated by 2.18% against the dollar, and by 7.95% over the past year [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the deposit rate to 2.00% in June and is expected to maintain it this month, with market expectations of a further 25 basis point cut by the end of the year [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, raising inflation expectations for 2025 due to tariffs impacting prices [2]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Significant progress has been made in EU-US trade negotiations, with a potential framework agreement that may include a 10% baseline tariff and exemptions for key products like Airbus aircraft [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the outcome of these negotiations, as a successful agreement could strengthen the euro further, while uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and global economic fluctuations remain [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The initial resistance level for the euro against the dollar is at 1.1830, with further resistance at 1.1815 and 1.1852 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1441 (55-day SMA), followed by 1.1210 and 1.1064, with a significant psychological level at 1.1000 [3].