（央视财经《正点财经》）17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，这是美联储货币政策的重大转向，分析人士指出，这一举措势必对欧 洲金融市场和经济走势产生深远影响。 欧洲政策中心高级政策分析师 菲利普·劳斯贝格：历史经验表明，每当美联储降息，欧洲股市在未来3到6个月内的表现往往相当不 错。这主要是因为市场流动性增强，投资资金更为充裕，同时，美国资产的收益率通常会下降，因此对于寻求更高回报的投资者来 说，转向其他市场，包括欧洲市场，是一个明智选择。 欧洲政策中心高级政策分析师 菲利普·劳斯贝格：欧洲的出口产品将变得更加昂贵，这可能会对欧洲出口导向型产业的出口产生负 面影响。因为它们将更难与其他变得更便宜的商品竞争，尤其是美国商品，所以这将会对欧盟经济增长产生负面影响。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 劳斯贝格还表示，美联储降息还将在当前欧洲央行维持利率不变的情况下导致欧元升值，从而为整个欧洲金融市场带来积极影响， 并在一定程度上缓解部分欧盟成员国面临的债务压力。 总台记者 朱曦莉：尽管美联储降息将推高欧元兑换美元汇率，从而增强欧元资产的吸引力，吸引更多投资，并降低以美元结算的 能源和原材料等商品的进口成本，有利于缓解欧盟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges due to currency fluctuations and tariff policies, leading to a decline in stock prices for major luxury groups and a slowdown in market growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major luxury groups such as LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, and Kering have seen stock price declines of 26.31%, 17.98%, 19.84%, and 13.33% respectively over the past six months [3]. - The MSCI Europe Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods Total Return Index has dropped 17% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 27% [3]. - NDR's report indicates that the luxury goods sector's growth is slowing, partly due to the fading benefits of favorable exchange rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Results - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue and a 22% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with recurring operating profit down 15% [7]. - Kering's second-quarter sales fell 15% to €3.7 billion, with Gucci's sales down 25% to €1.46 billion [7]. - Hermès experienced an 8% sales growth in the first half, significantly lower than the 15% growth reported in the previous year [7]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing deeper structural challenges, including weak consumer confidence and brand value dilution, leading to a loss of approximately 50 million consumers over the past two years [11][12]. - The Z generation has seen a 7% decline in sales, equating to a loss of $5.7 billion in consumption, marking the largest drop among all generations [11]. - High-net-worth individuals are becoming more discerning in their luxury purchases, focusing on value and personalized services [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Bernstein has revised its global luxury goods revenue growth forecast for 2025 from an increase of 5% to a decrease of 2% [12]. - UBS estimates that luxury brands have increased prices by an average of 33% from 2019 to 2023, which may have overstretched market tolerance [12]. - Following a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, a 15% baseline tariff on luxury goods imported from Europe is expected to raise prices in the U.S. by an average of 2% and globally by about 1% [12].

Group 1 - The euro to US dollar exchange rate reached 1.171 on June 26, the highest level since September 2021, following a breakthrough of 1.16 on June 24 [1][2] - The European Central Bank's reference rate for the euro to dollar on June 26 was 1.1695 [2] - Many economists believe the US dollar may continue to weaken due to erratic government policies, which have further undermined market confidence in the dollar [2] Group 2 - The recent exchange rate changes are primarily attributed to the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, leading to a passive appreciation of the euro [2] - The rise of the euro against the dollar is not due to strengthening European economic fundamentals, but rather a result of large-scale sell-offs of dollar assets [2] - The euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not concerned about the appreciation of the euro, as stated by President Christine Lagarde, who emphasized that while exchange rates are not a target, they are considered in inflation forecasts [1]. Group 1 - Analysts note that Lagarde did not provide further details on the ECB's stance regarding the euro's exchange rate [1]. - The ECB's current position indicates a lack of immediate concern over the euro's strength [1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its current monetary policy, which aligns with market expectations. However, there are concerns regarding the potential for interest rate cuts if the euro continues to appreciate significantly [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady was anticipated by market participants [1] - The ongoing press conference is addressing the implications of the euro's strength on future monetary policy decisions [1] - There is speculation about whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will consider reinitiating interest rate cuts in response to a stronger euro [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, marking the first time since June of the previous year that it has not made any adjustments [1] Group 1: Interest Rates - The ECB has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - This decision reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid ongoing US-EU trade negotiations and the unclear impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that there is internal disagreement within the ECB regarding the future monetary policy path [1] - Investors generally anticipate that the ECB may lower interest rates once more before the end of the year, potentially in December [1] Group 3: Currency Considerations - The appreciation of the euro is also a significant factor influencing the ECB's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from MUFG express that the European Central Bank's (ECB) concerns regarding the recent appreciation of the euro are unlikely to prevent its continued strength [1] Group 1: ECB Concerns - The ECB's increasing unease about the euro's recent appreciation may suppress its upward momentum in the short term [1] - However, such concerns are not expected to trigger a sustained decline in the euro's value [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite the potential for a stronger euro to lead to lower inflation, market participants have shown decreased confidence in the ECB's likelihood of further rate cuts this year [1] - The threat of U.S. tariffs has not significantly influenced market expectations for additional rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar, with recent developments in trade negotiations and economic indicators influencing its value [2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is currently around 1.1674, down 0.21% from the previous close of 1.1699, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 13% [1]. - Over the past month, the euro has appreciated by 2.18% against the dollar, and by 7.95% over the past year [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the deposit rate to 2.00% in June and is expected to maintain it this month, with market expectations of a further 25 basis point cut by the end of the year [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, raising inflation expectations for 2025 due to tariffs impacting prices [2]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Significant progress has been made in EU-US trade negotiations, with a potential framework agreement that may include a 10% baseline tariff and exemptions for key products like Airbus aircraft [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the outcome of these negotiations, as a successful agreement could strengthen the euro further, while uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and global economic fluctuations remain [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The initial resistance level for the euro against the dollar is at 1.1830, with further resistance at 1.1815 and 1.1852 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1441 (55-day SMA), followed by 1.1210 and 1.1064, with a significant psychological level at 1.1000 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect the euro to face a correction in the next one to three months due to potential warnings from European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding the strong euro [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The market has observed initial signs of ECB officials attempting to curb the euro's strength [1] - There is a widespread expectation that the German economy will remain weak throughout the year, which, combined with a stronger euro and potential U.S. tariffs, will increase pressure on exporters [1] Group 2: Currency Forecast - The euro is projected to rise to 1.20 against the U.S. dollar within the next 12 months, but a pullback in the euro's recent gains is anticipated in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that recent tariff increases and the appreciation of the euro are expected to negatively impact exports [1] Group 1 - The ECB highlighted concerns regarding the adverse effects of tariff hikes on trade dynamics [1] - The recent strengthening of the euro is anticipated to further challenge export competitiveness [1] - The combination of these factors may lead to a slowdown in economic growth within the eurozone [1]