文︱陆弃 在华盛顿，智库曾被视为政策的实验室、思想的竞技场，是立法、行政和司法之外的"第五种权力"。然 而，当特朗普再度踏入白宫，戴上那顶标志性的红色"MAGA"帽时，这些曾经秉持独立研究、专业分析 的机构，似乎突然被赋予了全新的角色——忠诚的政治工具。 传统研究型智库的辉煌岁月正在急速消退。布鲁金斯学会、卡内基国际和平基金会、卡托研究所，这些 曾以专业性和独立性闻名的机构，如今被特朗普阵营贴上各种标签：自由派、国际主义、建制派……一 纸标签，让多年的专业积累瞬间失效。资金削减、人员裁撤、交流渠道关闭，曾经可以自由对话的学者 们，如今连踏入白宫的门槛都被严严实实封锁，留下的只有"忠诚优先"的新兴力量。 而新兴保守派智库，如传统基金会（HF）、美国优先政策研究所（AFPI）、保守派伙伴关系研究所 （CPI），则借此机会一路高歌猛进。这些机构专门筛选忠于特朗普和保守派议题的人才，搭建了一个 闭环的人才输送体系——从研究员到白宫幕僚，从政策顾问到内阁成员，无一不带着浓烈的"特朗普味 道"。HF的"右翼版领英"数据库、AFPI向政府输送的多位部长与高官，让整个政策系统都被忠诚度绑 架，专业性和独立性被彻底稀释。 智库 ...

最近我读到了一本非常有意思的书——美国《华盛顿邮报》的资深记者戴维·林奇所著的《世界最糟的赌注：全球化豪赌如何失控（及如何重回正轨）》。 通过这本书，我终于理解了"全球化是豪赌"这一说法的深意。简单来说，美国的工人其实不过是全球化这场赌局中的筹码，输赢和他们没有半点关系。 林奇在书中提到，早期大家普遍认为全球化是一个理想的乌托邦，资本可以自由跨国流动，新市场等待开发，而发展中国家也能借此崛起。但当我们回顾像 印度尼西亚的动荡、俄罗斯的卢布危机，以及美国工人失业的情形时，不难看出，今天的经济动荡和政治分裂，很多都与全球化的走向密切相关。 林奇多年来一直关注贸易协定与工人生活状况，他的视角特别，专注于资本与劳动之间的对立。他通过深入剖析新自由主义到民族主义的变化，揭示了全球 化走向失控的路径。 1990年代，克林顿总统提出全球化是"无敌的力量"。当时大多数美国人同意加入世界贸易组织，尽管五分之三的人也明白这会导致国内工人受损。经济学家 丹尼·罗德里克早就警告过，全球化的好处是资本和高技能人才能赚钱，而低技能的工人则会失业，他们的工作岗位被低价劳动力取代。这个不平等的局面 不仅加剧了社会矛盾，也让富人和企业能逃避税 ...

这种基层压力也传导至自民党上层，导致上层态度都愈发分化。最终除了林芳正等少数死忠外，石破茂 政权内部的关键人士也纷纷跳船。大势已去的石破茂不得不宣布自己将辞去职务。 2025年10月4日下午，高市早苗在第二轮自民党总裁选举中，击败前首相小泉纯一郎之子小泉进次郎。 此次总裁选举的直接诱因，是日本首相石破茂在年中的选举中成为参众两院的"双少数政府"。在党内的 逼宫下，石破茂不得不宣布辞职，以承担败选的政治责任。 大部分舆论在选前更看好小泉进次郎，然而出人意料的是，高市早苗在第一轮就展现出基层民意的强大 支持。在麻生太郎的及时跳船下，高市早苗当选为新一届自民党总裁。 秦失其鹿，天下共逐之。媒体很快将焦点集中在小泉进次郎和高市早苗两人身上。在去年的总裁选第一 轮中，高市早苗就以181票位居第一；石破茂以154票位居第二；小泉进次郎以134票位居第三。在第二 轮选举中，小泉选择支持石破茂。石破茂最终以215票战胜高市早苗的194票。 高市早苗的当选，意味着岸田文雄时代以来的温和中立宣告结束；也宣告自民党上层的精英思路破产。 正如特朗普在2016年赢得共和党初选一样，自民党的基层支持者也发出来自己的明确信号：日本自民党 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the failures of capitalism in the United States, particularly highlighting the widening income and wealth gaps that have accelerated during the pandemic and post-pandemic era [1][2][5][15]. Economic Disparities - The article presents data showing that the real income of the bottom 60% of workers has stagnated since 1980, while the top 10% and 1% have seen their incomes double [19][21][28]. - The wealth gap is at its highest level since the late 1930s, with the top 1% holding more wealth than the bottom 90% combined [25][31]. - The likelihood of children earning more than their parents has dropped from 90% in 1970 to 50% today, indicating reduced economic mobility [23][38]. Education and Opportunity - The article emphasizes the importance of equal educational opportunities, noting that children from low-income families face significant disadvantages, including higher rates of poverty and food insecurity [44][45][46]. - The U.S. education system ranks poorly in standardized tests compared to other developed countries, particularly affecting students from high-poverty schools [48][49][52]. - There is a significant disparity in funding between public schools in wealthy and poor communities, exacerbating educational inequalities [68][70]. Social and Economic Consequences - The article argues that the widening income and wealth gaps lead to social unrest and political polarization, with rising populism on both the left and right [97][104][105]. - The increasing incarceration rates and their correlation with educational attainment highlight the systemic issues affecting low-income families [82][84][85]. - Health outcomes are also negatively impacted, with lower-income individuals experiencing higher rates of premature death and poorer health [88][89][91]. Recommendations for Reform - The article suggests that reforms are necessary to address the failures of capitalism, including the need for strong leadership to tackle income and wealth disparities [136][137]. - It advocates for bipartisan cooperation to redesign the economic system, focusing on equitable resource distribution and improving productivity [138][139]. - The establishment of clear metrics for success and accountability in addressing these issues is emphasized as crucial for effective reform [140][141].

有不少人喜欢把美国比作"新罗马"，冷战后它确实风光无限，像极了当年的罗马帝国。 可近几年美国的迷之操作越来越多，更是踩了不少坑，而罗马帝国的衰亡，是不是就预示了美国的未来？ 作为西方世界的一方霸主，美国的衰落，又或是在预示西方世界的衰落？ 罗马当年能撑那么久，靠的是一张庞大的贸易网。 现在美国也在干类似的事，2024年，美国突然对中国的电动车、太阳能电池加了高额关税。 之前他们自己的贸易部门还问过大家意见，结果绝大多数企业和机构都反对，说这会让美国消费者多花钱，还会丢工作。 可政府压根没听，硬是把政策推了下去。 没过多久数据就出来了：关税成本全转嫁到了老百姓身上，光这一项就丢了14.2万个工作岗位。 更讽刺的是，2025年美国又想对中国造的商船额外收费，连自家商会和马士基这样的大公司都急了，直说这是胡乱来，毕竟美国自己一年都造不出5艘商 船，全球90%的份额都在别人手里。 从埃及的粮食到东方的丝绸，顺着商路流进帝国，既喂饱了人，也充实了国库。 可到了晚期，一群土地贵族怕外来商品抢生意，非要搞保护主义，把好好的贸易网拆得七零八落，最后财税崩了，帝国也跟着垮了。 但另一边，330万份移民庇护申请堆在那儿没人管，申 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights significant trends and changes in the global economy and financial markets, emphasizing the impact of populism, inequality, monetary policy, productivity, valuation, artificial intelligence, protectionism, global rebalancing, dollar depreciation, and the rise of cryptocurrencies [1] - In 2024, 32 political elections are expected globally, with 26 resulting in the ousting of incumbents, indicating a shift in political sentiment [1] - The U.S. government debt has reached a historical high of $37 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of China, Japan, Germany, and India [1] Group 2 - The average unemployment rate for U.S. college graduates has surged to 8.1%, the highest since July 2021, reflecting potential challenges in the job market [3] - The capital expenditure of the "Big Seven" U.S. stocks has increased to 55% of their operating cash flow, up from 20% in 2012, indicating a shift in investment strategies [3] - The effective import tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 15%, the highest since 1937, suggesting a trend towards protectionism [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the duality of America, highlighting the coexistence of liberalism and non-liberalism throughout its history [2][4] - It emphasizes that the liberal tradition in America has often overshadowed its non-liberal aspects, which include white supremacy and hierarchical exclusion [4][6] - The book "The Crisis of Freedom" by Steven Hahn provides a historical perspective on America's current challenges, arguing that non-liberalism has been a structural part of its political development for 250 years [1][11] Group 2 - The rise of populism in America, exemplified by Donald Trump, is rooted in a deep social foundation and historical inevitability, reflecting the frustrations of white working-class communities [7][10] - Trump's support base includes three main factions: the MAGA movement, traditional right-wing Wall Street supporters, and Silicon Valley tech elites, although tensions exist within these groups [7][9] - The article notes that the political landscape is highly polarized, with significant divisions between Republican and Democratic parties, further exacerbated by economic inequality [10][11] Group 3 - Economic inequality in America is highlighted, with 1% of the population holding a disproportionate amount of wealth, leading to social unrest and movements like Occupy Wall Street [11][12] - The decline of manufacturing in the U.S. has resulted in the deterioration of many white working-class communities, contributing to the rise of populist sentiments [12][14] - The article suggests that understanding America's complexities is crucial for engaging with it effectively, especially in the context of its historical and philosophical underpinnings [14][17]

Macro Factors - UBS highlights concerns over rising populism leading to irresponsible fiscal policies, estimating a need for a 3% GDP fiscal tightening to stabilize the US government debt-to-GDP ratio [2] - Bank stocks perform better relative to other sectors during rising bond yields, with their performance closely tied to the steepening of the yield curve [2] - The growth of private sector loans is rebounding in Europe, particularly in corporate loans in France and Italy, with UBS's macro model indicating European bank stocks are currently fairly valued [2] Valuation Insights - Bank stocks in Europe and the US are trading at approximately 10% below their long-term average P/E ratios, with UBS suggesting that the cost of equity in Europe is too high at 11.6% compared to 8.8% in the US [3] - A 20 basis point increase in default loss rates or a drop in interest rates below 1% would be required to achieve the estimated 10%-14% EPS downgrade already factored into valuations, which UBS believes is unlikely [3] - UBS maintains global GDP growth forecasts at 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] Reasons for Revaluation of Bank Stocks - Banks have demonstrated stronger resilience during the current downturn due to stress tests, high capital requirements for risky loans, and strict regulations [4] - Non-macro headwinds have significantly diminished, with deleveraging nearly complete and a reduction in litigation and fines against banks [4] - The risk of disruption from emerging technologies has decreased as these "disruptors" face stricter regulations and some have been acquired by traditional banks [4][5] Tactical Considerations - The banking sector is not overly crowded, ranking 8th globally and 9th in Europe in terms of sector crowding [6] - Earnings expectations for the banking sector are improving, with UBS ranking it 2nd in Europe and 5th globally for earnings revisions [6] - The banking sector is not severely overbought, with current overbought levels at one standard deviation, typically leading to outperformance [6] Recommended Banks - UBS recommends several banks across different regions, including BAWAG, ING, Standard Chartered, Barclays, and Intesa in Europe/UK, and Citizens Financial, KeyCorp, and Webster Financial in the US [7] - The selection criteria focus on countries nearing the end of interest rate hikes or those with high rates expected to decrease, as well as banks in strong currency countries [7] Strategic Preferences - UBS's global equity strategy team favors retail banks in Europe, select emerging market exposures, US investment banks like JPMorgan, and Japanese banks [8] - The preference for US banks is weaker due to anticipated domestic demand slowdown and faster-than-expected interest rate declines [8] - UBS identifies banks with a consensus "sell" rating but positive earnings revision trends, such as the Canadian National Bank and ABN AMRO, as potential investment opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS highlights multiple favorable factors driving global bank stocks, including populism, fiscal easing, currency appreciation, structural improvements, and attractive valuations [1][2]. Macro Factors - The rise of populism is leading to concerns over fiscal easing, which is pushing up bond yields, benefiting bank stocks as they are highly localized and gain from currency appreciation in regions like Europe and Japan [1][3]. - UBS maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a 1% rate cut by the end of the year, which will strengthen the euro and yen, directly enhancing the asset value and profitability of local banks [7][11]. Structural Improvements and Valuation - The banking sector has significantly improved its risk resilience post-financial crisis, with reduced litigation risks and manageable fintech disruption [2][26]. - Current bank stock valuations are attractive, reflecting excessive market concerns about an economic slowdown, with forward P/E ratios in Europe and the US showing about a 10% discount to historical norms [16][20]. Credit Growth and Economic Recovery - A turning point in private sector credit growth is evident, particularly in Europe, where demand for corporate loans is increasing, signaling a new upward cycle for banks' core lending business [11][15]. Indicators Supporting Bank Stock Allocation - UBS identifies several indicators supporting bank stock allocation, including moderate crowding and strong earnings revisions, with bank stocks ranking favorably in terms of earnings adjustments [36][41]. - The macro model indicates potential upside for bank stocks, particularly in Europe and Japan, where interest rates are nearing the end of a tightening cycle and will benefit from currency appreciation [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of new political trends in Japan following the recent Senate elections, highlighting the rise of populist parties that criticize established political elites and attract voter dissatisfaction [1][2]. Group 1: Political Landscape Changes - The recent Senate elections in Japan have seen the rise of new opposition parties that embody populist sentiments, while traditional parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party have stagnated [1][2]. - The perception of established parties, including the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as part of "old politics" has intensified, leading to a decline in their support [2]. Group 2: Decline of Traditional Party System - The article notes that the reliance on 20th-century political organizations is diminishing, with younger voters increasingly disengaged from the two-party system [2][3]. - The voting behavior of younger generations indicates a shift towards individualism, with social media playing a significant role in connecting politicians with voters [2]. Group 3: Electoral System and Multi-Party Dynamics - Japan's electoral system, particularly the mixed-member proportional representation, has contributed to the fragmentation of the political landscape, making it difficult for a two-party system to thrive [3]. - The LDP's seat share has decreased to 41% in both houses, marking a significant shift from its historical dominance [3]. Group 4: Rise of Right-Wing Populism - The article highlights the emergence of right-wing populism in Japan, drawing parallels with global trends, although Japan's context differs due to lower immigration rates and less pronounced wealth disparity [5]. - The potential for right-wing populism to grow in Japan remains uncertain, with factors such as immigration and economic conditions influencing public sentiment [5].