谈及美国，人们常想到自由、民主、机会之地等词汇，这些构成美国对外形象，塑造世界认 知。但观察当下美国，总统权力扩张、贸易保护主义抬头、民粹主义泛滥等现象，与"自由 灯塔"形象不符，让人质疑美国是否真是自由主义典范。 普利策奖、班克罗夫特奖获奖者史蒂文・哈恩在《自由之困》中，以严谨研究和细腻笔触呈 现不同的美国历史画卷，帮助我们从历史根源理解美国当下困境。该书打破传统自由主义主 导的美国历史叙事，指出非自由主义贯穿美国250年历史，是塑造其政治发展的结构性部 分，扎根于国家建构、法律制度与社会秩序。 今年7月，中信出版集团邀请金灿荣教授、李翔及译者袁野举办《自由之困》新书分享会。 对谈中，深入探讨美国为何一面标榜"自由灯塔"，一面深陷非自由困境，如何从历史看清其 表象下的复杂肌理，读懂当下美国社会撕裂与制度困境的缘由。对话旨在以新视角理解美 国，也为思考自身社会发展提供镜鉴。 以下内容基于金灿荣教授的讲述整理而成： 01美国的双重性：自由主义与非自由主义的长期并存 美国标榜自己是世界上最自由的国家。最早讲这个特点其实是法国人，就是托克维尔，他到美国转了一 圈，写了一个《论美国的民主》，说美国这个国家跟欧洲不同， ...

Macro Factors - UBS highlights concerns over rising populism leading to irresponsible fiscal policies, estimating a need for a 3% GDP fiscal tightening to stabilize the US government debt-to-GDP ratio [2] - Bank stocks perform better relative to other sectors during rising bond yields, with their performance closely tied to the steepening of the yield curve [2] - The growth of private sector loans is rebounding in Europe, particularly in corporate loans in France and Italy, with UBS's macro model indicating European bank stocks are currently fairly valued [2] Valuation Insights - Bank stocks in Europe and the US are trading at approximately 10% below their long-term average P/E ratios, with UBS suggesting that the cost of equity in Europe is too high at 11.6% compared to 8.8% in the US [3] - A 20 basis point increase in default loss rates or a drop in interest rates below 1% would be required to achieve the estimated 10%-14% EPS downgrade already factored into valuations, which UBS believes is unlikely [3] - UBS maintains global GDP growth forecasts at 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] Reasons for Revaluation of Bank Stocks - Banks have demonstrated stronger resilience during the current downturn due to stress tests, high capital requirements for risky loans, and strict regulations [4] - Non-macro headwinds have significantly diminished, with deleveraging nearly complete and a reduction in litigation and fines against banks [4] - The risk of disruption from emerging technologies has decreased as these "disruptors" face stricter regulations and some have been acquired by traditional banks [4][5] Tactical Considerations - The banking sector is not overly crowded, ranking 8th globally and 9th in Europe in terms of sector crowding [6] - Earnings expectations for the banking sector are improving, with UBS ranking it 2nd in Europe and 5th globally for earnings revisions [6] - The banking sector is not severely overbought, with current overbought levels at one standard deviation, typically leading to outperformance [6] Recommended Banks - UBS recommends several banks across different regions, including BAWAG, ING, Standard Chartered, Barclays, and Intesa in Europe/UK, and Citizens Financial, KeyCorp, and Webster Financial in the US [7] - The selection criteria focus on countries nearing the end of interest rate hikes or those with high rates expected to decrease, as well as banks in strong currency countries [7] Strategic Preferences - UBS's global equity strategy team favors retail banks in Europe, select emerging market exposures, US investment banks like JPMorgan, and Japanese banks [8] - The preference for US banks is weaker due to anticipated domestic demand slowdown and faster-than-expected interest rate declines [8] - UBS identifies banks with a consensus "sell" rating but positive earnings revision trends, such as the Canadian National Bank and ABN AMRO, as potential investment opportunities [8]

全球银行股面临多重利好因素驱动！瑞银在最新研报中指出了全球银行股上涨的"核心逻辑"，宏观层面利好因素包括民粹主义、财政宽松、本币升值，以 及结构性改善和估值具有吸引力等。 7月24日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银全球股票策略团队在最新研报中重申对银行股的长期超配立场，并提出了银行股上涨的核心逻辑： 民粹主义引发财政宽松担忧，推高债券收益率，而银行股是债券收益率上升的最大受益者之一；银行股作为高度本土化行业，从欧洲、日本等 地货币升值中受益显著。 瑞银还在报告中指出，从结构性改善与估值优势方面来看， 银行板块经历了后金融危机时代的去杠杆和严监管，如今风险抵御能力显著增强，诉讼、金 融科技冲击等逆风因素减弱。 最后，瑞银补充道，多项指标支持银行股配置，包括拥挤度适中，盈利修正强劲，以及宏观模型显示上涨空间。该行建议关注欧洲、日本及部分新兴市场 的银行股。 宏观层面：民粹主义、高利率与本币升值的"完美风暴"，私人部门放贷增长回暖 1、报告称，2024年是120年来首次所有主要发达市场的执政党都失去了政权或多数席位。这种政治变化的反应通常是增加支出、收紧移民政策，并在某些 情况下提高最低工资。 瑞银指出，当前全球最大的宏观 ...

民粹主义是一种打着"局外人"旗号，依托民众，批判既成精英的政治手法。对既成政党的不满越高，越 容易获得支持。从这个定义来看，此次日本参议院选举中表现亮眼的参政党和国民民主党都可以归为民 粹主义政党，反观既成政党则呈现衰退趋势。 值得关注的是，在野第一大党立宪民主党此次基本原地踏步。未能成为反对执政党的受托者，立宪民主 党与自民党一样，也被冠以"旧政治＝既成精英"的印象。公明党、共产党同样失去议席，党内高龄化导 致组织疲软已难以掩盖。 千叶大学的水岛治郎教授指出："依赖20世纪型组织、团体的政治整体上正在走向终结。以往人们隶属 于团体，团体支撑政党的政治结构正在崩塌"。水岛治郎教授关注不同世代的投票行为，表示："自民党 与立宪民主党这两大势力，已完全无法承接年轻与中年选民的诉求。在中年以下人群中，'两大政党'已 不复存在"。 从比例代表选区行业团体或工会所属候选人的得票情况来看，较以往减少的候选人更为显眼。与组织、 团体的联系正在减弱，选民的投票行为趋向"个体化"。社交媒体作为政治家与选民直接连接的管道日益 显著，成为民粹政党的有力工具。 7月19日聆听参政党演说的听众（东京芝公园，Reuters） 佐藤贤：随 ...

【环球时报驻日本特约记者 王军 环球时报记者 邢晓婧 环球时报特约记者 孙晓蕾】编者的话：在7月20 日举行的日本国会参议院选举中，民粹主义政党参政党获得14个席位，成为此次选举的主要赢家之一。 这个刚成立5年的政党，在面临人口危机的日本通过宣扬"日本人优先"获得不少选民支持。在这背后， 既有日本民众对当前经济低迷和物价高涨的不满，也有对丑闻不断建制派政党的惩罚。在自民党和公明 党失去对国会两院控制权的背景下，参政党将如何影响日本的政治格局，这是很多人提出的问题。此 外，该党党首曾否认日本侵华罪行，其政治力量的增加将如何影响日本对华政策，值得关注。 西村林太郎认为，日本多个反对党在近期选举中的胜利，反映了部分选民已经厌倦了建制派政治，他们 通过支持反对党来发泄不满并惩罚自民党。美国天普大学东京校区日本问题学者库塞克称，参政党的许 " 反全球化政党 " 宣传 " 日本人优先 " 参政党成立于2020年新冠疫情期间。该党在其官网上表示，那些感到"如果不改变政治现状，日本的未 来将充满不确定性"的民众聚集在一起，以"没有我们想投票的政党，所以要从零开始创建一个"为口 号，成立参政党。 据日本共同社、《日本时报》、英 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of Trump's return to power on transatlantic relations, highlighting the challenges and adjustments faced by the EU in maintaining its alliance with the US while addressing issues related to security, trade, and international order [2][22][36] - The EU has adopted a multi-faceted approach to cope with Trump's policies, utilizing cultural ties and institutional channels to maintain communication and cooperation with the US [4][5][22] - The article emphasizes that the EU has refrained from retaliating against US tariffs, opting instead for negotiations, reflecting a strategic choice to avoid direct confrontation with Trump [7][8][19] Group 2 - The EU's response to the Ukraine conflict illustrates its ability to adapt to Trump's stance, as it continues to support Ukraine while also aligning with Trump's calls for peace negotiations [9][10][22] - The article notes that the EU has shifted its approach towards China, moving from criticism to cooperation, which serves as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the US [14][16][22] - The historical context of transatlantic relations is explored, indicating that the relationship has entered a phase of decline due to the absence of a common enemy and changing geopolitical dynamics [25][36][36]

本文来自微信公众号：凤凰WEEKLY国际，作者：关珺冉，编辑：漆菲，题图来自：视觉中国 7月20日，东京气温高达34摄氏度，为日本国会参议院选举史上最热的投票日。本次选举打破的另一项纪录是，执政党自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在 国会众参两院皆未能取得过半数席位。 日本国会参议院设有248个议席，议员任期六年，每三年改选一半。此次选举共争夺125个议席，包括74个选区议席、50个比例代表议席和1个补选议席。 最终，多个在野党共获得78个议席，加上48个非改选议席，达到参议院248个总议席的一半。而自民党和公明党共获得47席，加上75个非改选议席，达到 122席。这一数字较改选前的141席大幅减少。 首相石破茂7月21日在自民党总部召开记者会，表示接受此次参议院选举结果，身为自民党总裁，他对此表示歉意。但他表示，眼下有迫在眉睫的美国关 税谈判问题、物价上涨问题，为了不使国政出现停滞，应该尽到责任，他将继续执政。此前，自民党元老、最高顾问麻生太郎已对周围的人表示"不能允 许他继续任职"，展现出明显的"逼宫"态势。 与之相对，国民民主党和参政党等中小在野党，因主张下调消费税税率、日本优先等政策不断在参议院攻城略地 ...

虽然如果对特朗普没有什么滤镜的话，事前大概能猜到，爱泼斯坦案的调查不会有什么突破性结果，会公布一些看起来内容很复 杂，实际上关键内容涂黑，所以什么都没说的文件。但特朗普在这件事上的表态还是太惊世骇俗，他直接表示，爱泼斯坦名单不 存在，没人关心这玩意，这是民主党搞出来的阴谋。这直接把maga们整崩溃了。 爱泼斯坦案件毫无疑问是这几年美国政治的核心话题之一。其完美符合了右翼的阴谋论世界观，全球主义者不仅暗中统治世界， 个人道德还极度败坏。利用这个事件，特朗普成功动员了大量选民，打击了民主党的选情。毕竟统治世界是抽象的，但是对道德 败坏的攻击却是非常高效的。 当然，民主党高层这帮人道貌岸然，实际上却道德败坏，这点有良心的人都不会否认。但是道德败坏的远不止他们，共和党这帮 人就有什么区别吗？这种事情又不分驴象，说白了，两党都是差不多的。 就算说建制派都是坏人，那么特朗普本人呢？特朗普现在这个表现，很多MAGA心里边也犯嘀咕，觉得马斯克爆料说不定是真 的，特朗普也是参与者。甚至我们再往前一点，看看保守派的历史，宗教界一向和针对未成年人的犯罪密切相关。这事细说的 话，一下子就破坏了MAGA心里的道德优越感，自然就有反噬了 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market is expected to face a prolonged decline following the upcoming Senate elections, with predictions indicating that the ruling coalition may lose its majority, impacting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government [1] - Political concerns have already affected market performance, with local stocks underperforming compared to the MSCI World Index this month [1] - If the ruling party loses its majority, the market may take an average of 35 to 75 days to bottom out, with an average total decline of about 8% during this period [1] Group 2 - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 1.2% in July after three months of gains, with a potentially weak minority government complicating trade negotiations with the U.S. and disrupting investor sentiment [2] - The increase in tariffs by Trump on Japanese goods, particularly the rise from 24% to 25%, has negatively impacted Japan's exports and heightened the risk of a technical economic recession [5] - The upcoming elections may influence corporate governance reforms in Japan, which have been a significant driver of the stock market's rise in recent years [5] Group 3 - There is a growing populist sentiment in Japan, similar to trends seen in the West, with income redistribution becoming an important theme moving forward [7] - The impact of the elections on Japan's $6.8 trillion stock market could be complex, with export companies potentially benefiting from yen depreciation while consumer stocks may rise due to opposition proposals to lower food sales tax [7] - If extreme right and left-wing parties gain strength, there could be a "triple decline" in the yen, bonds, and stocks [7]

Group 1 - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may lead to the ruling coalition losing its majority, which could negatively impact the country's $6.8 trillion stock market [1] - The Japanese stock market has underperformed compared to the MSCI global index this month, raising concerns about the potential governance capabilities of a weak minority government [1][4] - Political uncertainty is eroding investor confidence, as evidenced by a 1.2% decline in the Tokyo Stock Exchange index after three months of gains [4] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that if the ruling party loses in elections, the market may take 35 to 75 days to bottom out, with an average total decline of about 8% [4] - Analysts warn of a potential "triple whammy" in the Japanese financial market, affecting stocks, bonds, and currency if extreme political factions gain power [6] - A weaker yen could benefit exporters affected by U.S. tariffs, while opposition parties' proposals to cut food consumption taxes may boost consumer stocks [6] Group 3 - The election may have profound implications for corporate governance reforms, a key driver of recent stock market gains in Japan [7] - The potential coalition formation by the ruling party could alter its stance on corporate governance, which investors may not be fully aware of [8] - Rising populism in Japan is reflected in increasing support for new political parties advocating for changes in profit distribution models [8]