证券研究报告 长江电力 (600900 CH) 业绩符合预期，财务费用管控能力强 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 发电 目标价(人民币): 32.59 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 黄波 研究员 SAC No. S0570519090003 SFC No. BQR122 李雅琳 研究员 SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 胡知* 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120002 huzhi019072@htsc.com 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 32.59 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 29 日) | 28.09 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 687,312 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 2,549 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 26. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][9]. Core Views - The company is a listed platform under Shudao Group, focusing on the clean energy generation business through asset restructuring [8][11]. - The acquisition of Shudao Clean Energy Group aims to enhance the company's focus on clean energy generation, transitioning away from traditional businesses [19][37]. - The company is expected to benefit from the resource advantages of Shudao Group, which is actively involved in the development of multiple hydropower projects and renewable energy resources [32][37]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2023 is 2,509 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.14%. However, a decline in revenue is expected in subsequent years, with 2024 projected at 2,483 million RMB, a decrease of 1.05% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -342 million RMB in 2023, worsening to -409 million RMB in 2024, before improving to -127 million RMB in 2025 [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.45 RMB in 2023, improving to -0.16 RMB by 2025 [7]. Business Strategy and Development - The company plans to divest from its traditional businesses in rail transit and bridge components, focusing instead on clean energy generation [19][33]. - Shudao Clean Energy is projected to have an operational and under-construction installed capacity of 10.5 million kW by the end of 2024, with significant contributions from hydropower projects [11][37]. - The company is also exploring new models that integrate transportation and energy, as well as renewable energy and mining [11][32]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned as one of the five major listed platforms under Shudao Group, which is a significant player in the transportation and energy sectors in Sichuan Province [32][33]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio of comparable companies is approximately 7.5, while the company's current P/B ratio is about 5.6, indicating potential for growth post-restructuring [9][11].

Core Insights - The Chinese hydropower industry is transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality development, playing an irreplaceable strategic role in the national energy system [1][13] - Hydropower serves as a cornerstone for energy security, a key non-fossil energy source for achieving carbon neutrality goals, and a critical tool for comprehensive river basin management [1][18][20] Industry Overview - As of early 2025, the total installed capacity of hydropower in China is expected to exceed 420 million kilowatts, with pumped storage capacity surpassing 55 million kilowatts, indicating rapid growth [1][34] - The annual hydropower generation is stable at around 1.3 trillion kilowatt-hours, although its share in total electricity generation is slightly declining [1][35][38] - The distribution of hydropower resources is uneven, with Sichuan, Yunnan, and Hubei leading in installed capacity [1][39] Industry Development Stages - The development of the hydropower industry has gone through three stages: foundational exploration, large-scale construction, and optimization for high-quality development [1][21][25] - The focus has shifted from rapid expansion to optimizing existing assets and enhancing operational efficiency through technological innovation and digital transformation [1][25][16] Market Dynamics - The market is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with specialized companies like Yangtze Power performing exceptionally well [2] - The industry faces challenges such as ecological and environmental pressures, complex resettlement issues, and seasonal fluctuations in generation [2][14] - Opportunities include the integration of hydropower with wind and solar energy, expansion of pumped storage, and the revaluation of existing assets [2][16] Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream sector is led by China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering, which dominate planning and engineering construction [1][42] - The midstream sector is characterized by manufacturers like Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric, achieving significant domestic production of turbine generators [1][42] - The downstream sector focuses on operations led by companies like Yangtze Power, addressing power consumption issues through the "West-to-East Power Transmission" project [1][42] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to strengthen top-level planning, improve market mechanisms, and innovate ecological compensation and benefit-sharing mechanisms [2] - Companies are encouraged to undergo strategic transformations, accelerate digitalization, and prioritize ESG management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost the capital market and energy sector, leading to a surge in related stock prices and substantial economic growth in Tibet [1][3]. Investment Impact - The 1.2 trillion yuan investment is projected to generate a GDP increase of 2.04 trillion yuan, providing over 20 billion yuan in annual fiscal revenue for Tibet [3]. - The total installed capacity of the project is estimated to be between 60 million to 70 million kilowatts, making it the largest hydropower station globally, with an annual electricity generation of approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours [3][5]. Energy Development Potential - The project is part of a broader initiative to develop 50 million kilowatts of solar and wind energy resources in the region, creating a comprehensive clean energy base [3][7]. - The electricity generated will primarily be transmitted to high-demand areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, reshaping China's energy landscape [3][8]. Clean Energy Contribution - The project will facilitate the export of 500 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually, contributing significantly to China's carbon reduction goals [3][6]. - The annual electricity output is equivalent to the energy consumption of 100 million households and will account for about 3% of the national electricity generation in 2024 [3][5]. Infrastructure and Grid Development - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project is accompanied by significant upgrades to the local power grid, including the establishment of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines to facilitate electricity export [15][16]. - The project will integrate various energy sources and modern infrastructure, including 5G networks and rail extensions, to enhance energy and information connectivity [15]. Regional Energy Integration - Future plans include the establishment of a South Asia energy internet, which aims to connect China's clean energy resources with South Asian markets [10][9]. - The development of the project will require overcoming significant challenges related to inter-regional cooperation and infrastructure integration [4][17]. Challenges and Barriers - The extreme geographical conditions in Tibet pose significant challenges for the successful implementation of the electricity export plan [4]. - There are existing barriers to inter-regional electricity trade, including local protectionism and the need for cooperation between different power grid operators [18][20].

Core Insights - The hydropower industry in China plays a crucial role in energy security, achieving "dual carbon" goals, and watershed management. By early 2025, the total installed capacity of hydropower is expected to exceed 420 million kilowatts, with pumped storage capacity surpassing 55 million kilowatts, marking a shift from scale expansion to stock optimization and high-quality development [1][13][19]. Industry Overview - Hydropower is a strategic cornerstone of China's energy security, providing a stable and reliable energy source that is less susceptible to geopolitical risks compared to fossil fuels [18]. - The industry has transitioned through various development stages, from initial exploration to large-scale construction and now to stock optimization and high-quality development [23][24][27]. - The macro environment for hydropower development is shaped by political, economic, social, and technological factors, with strong government support and policy direction [29][30][35]. Industry Chain Analysis - The hydropower industry chain includes upstream planning and design, midstream equipment manufacturing, and downstream power station operation, with major players like China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering leading the market [2][45][47]. - The "West-East Power Transmission" project addresses the imbalance of resource distribution and load, although it faces challenges such as transmission costs and market reforms affecting hydropower pricing [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with local energy platforms also participating. The regional layout is concentrated in the southwest, with significant developments in the Jinsha River and Yarlung Tsangpo River basins [1][3][29]. - The installed capacity of hydropower is highly concentrated in western provinces, with Sichuan leading the nation [42][43]. Technological Advancements - China has become a global leader in high dam construction and large-scale turbine manufacturing, with widespread application of smart hydropower station technologies and cascade reservoir scheduling [1][13][35]. - The industry is increasingly focusing on digital transformation and innovative technologies to enhance operational efficiency and economic benefits [27][35]. Challenges and Opportunities - The hydropower industry faces challenges related to ecological protection and social impacts, particularly concerning environmental sustainability and the resettlement of affected populations [14][32]. - Opportunities include the integration of hydropower with wind and solar energy, accelerated development of pumped storage, and the revaluation of existing hydropower assets [16][27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project marks a significant milestone in China's energy revolution and ecological development, with an estimated total investment exceeding 2 trillion yuan, making it the largest hydropower project in human history [3][6][16]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with potential additional investments bringing the total to over 2 trillion yuan [3][6]. - The project will consist of five hydropower stations with an installed capacity of 60-70 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [6][8]. - The project is expected to take 12-15 years to complete and will play a crucial role in China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategy [6][16]. Group 2: Key Beneficiaries - The China Three Gorges Corporation will be the largest shareholder of the newly established Yajiang Group, holding 35% of the shares, and is expected to be the primary beneficiary due to its extensive experience in hydropower construction and operation [7][8]. - China Huaneng Group is also positioned to benefit significantly, leveraging its established presence in the region and its extensive hydropower assets [8][9]. Group 3: Engineering and Construction - China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation are identified as the main engineering forces for the project, with expertise in large-scale hydropower construction [10][12]. - The project will utilize innovative construction techniques to address challenging geological conditions, including a total tunnel length exceeding 50 kilometers and a maximum depth of 3,000 meters [11][12]. Group 4: Supporting Infrastructure - The project will be complemented by the construction of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines, including the recently approved "Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area ±800 kV DC project," which will facilitate the long-distance transmission of electricity [14][15]. - The anticipated investment for the HVDC infrastructure could reach approximately 600 billion yuan, indicating significant future capital requirements for supporting the hydropower project [15][16].

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is a significant national infrastructure initiative with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aimed at enhancing energy supply and optimizing energy structure in China [1][2] - The project will consist of five tiered power stations and is expected to significantly boost the economic development of Tibet and surrounding regions, creating numerous job opportunities [1][2] - The establishment of the new central enterprise, Yajiang Group, reflects the government's commitment to ensuring the successful construction and operation of the hydropower project, aligning with national energy security strategies [1][2] Group 2 - The hydropower project will enhance the strategic dispatch capability of southwest hydropower and support the creation of a unified national electricity market [2] - The construction will positively impact multiple industries, including power equipment manufacturing, construction, and transmission sectors, while also stimulating local tourism, transportation, and logistics [2] - As of the end of 2024, China has built over 94,000 dams, with a hydropower installed capacity of 436 million kilowatts, accounting for 57% of renewable energy generation [3] Group 3 - The future role of hydropower is expected to evolve from merely generating electricity to becoming a system energy source, contributing to peak regulation, energy storage, and frequency stabilization [3] - The integration of hydropower with wind, solar, and pumped storage will form a green energy dispatch network, promoting the development of new energy and smart grids [3] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is seen as a milestone for the hydropower industry, marking a transition towards technological, ecological, and capital upgrades [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a favorable water inflow at the Wudongde reservoir, with a total inflow of approximately 39.964 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, which is 9.01% higher than the same period last year [3]. - The total power generation from the company's six domestic hydropower stations reached approximately 126.656 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5.01% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company is actively investing in pumped storage projects and integrated renewable energy bases, with a total investment of no more than 7.739 billion yuan for the Jiangxi Xunwu pumped storage power station project [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35.102 billion yuan, 36.981 billion yuan, and 38.831 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 19.8, and 18.9 [4][6]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is 86.242 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2% compared to the previous year [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.43 yuan, with a steady increase in subsequent years [6].

Core Viewpoint - Huaneng Hydropower (600025) is focusing on clean energy development in Yunnan, with a strong growth outlook supported by ongoing reforms and operational improvements [1][2] Company Performance - In 2024, Huaneng Hydropower achieved a total electricity generation of 1,120.12 billion kWh, ensuring energy supply for economic development [2] - The company reported a reduction in financial expenses by 0.56 billion yuan year-on-year, and issued green bonds worth 6.14 billion yuan at low interest rates, enhancing capital management [2] - The water and wind power integration has improved operational efficiency, with over 80% of hydropower plants meeting first-class standards [2] Growth Prospects - The hydropower segment is experiencing steady growth, with a 2.72% year-on-year increase in electricity sales to 1,066.87 billion kWh in 2024, and an increase in on-grid electricity price by 1.11 yuan per MWh [3] - The company is actively developing hydropower and wind-storage projects in the upper reaches of the Lancang River, ensuring long-term growth potential [3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a significant increase in electricity generation, achieving 212.92 billion kWh, a 31.22% year-on-year increase [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain steady growth with projected revenues of 26.498 billion yuan, 27.272 billion yuan, and 28.227 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 8.896 billion yuan, 9.273 billion yuan, and 9.823 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.49 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.55 yuan [4] - The stock has received a "buy" rating from multiple institutions, with 14 out of 18 institutions recommending a buy in the last 90 days [5]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power industry, highlighting a stable income center and declining costs for hydropower assets [1][4][21] - Hydropower generation is closely linked to water flow and rainfall, with the Three Gorges Dam serving as a prime example of utilizing water head for energy conversion [19][20] - The hydropower sector is expected to see a significant increase in profitability as depreciation costs decrease over time, enhancing the value creation capability of hydropower enterprises [21][23] Group 2 - The report indicates that there is still growth potential in hydropower installations, with traditional hydropower and new energy projects contributing to a second growth curve for hydropower companies [26][28] - The hydropower industry is entering a phase where high-quality large hydropower assets are becoming scarce, as the country has already developed a significant portion of its technical hydropower capacity [28][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of water and wind-solar integrated bases in expanding the total installed capacity of hydropower, with notable projects planned for the upcoming years [26][42] Group 3 - The report discusses the stability of non-market electricity prices in the short term, while market prices are expected to rise in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan, supporting hydropower revenue [22][23] - Financial costs, including depreciation and interest expenses, are projected to decline, leading to improved cash flow and lower debt ratios for hydropower companies [23][40] - The report highlights the consistent growth in cash dividends from hydropower companies, reinforcing their status as stable investment options in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7][18]