燃料油周报 | 2025-09-28 市场分析 本周燃料油期货市场表现：随着地缘局势升温，原油价格本周出现一定幅度反弹，对下游能源板块形成一定提振。 此外，高硫燃料油基本面边际改善，且FU期货仓单部分注销，促进了盘面结构的走强。FU主力合约周度涨幅录得 4.36%，LU主力合约周度涨幅录得1.9%。 油价呈现反弹态势，FU盘面结构边际走强 供应方面：近期燃料油市场未出现大规模断供事件，但局部的供应扰动值得关注。伊朗方面，参考船期数据，9月 份伊朗高硫燃料油发货量目前预计在128万吨，环比减少5万吨，同比下降46万吨。随着美国制裁持续加码，伊朗 油物流与到港遭遇一定阻力，但整体基本盘仍存，需要关注相关制裁政策的变化情况。俄罗斯方面，参考Kpler数 据，9月份俄罗斯高硫燃料油总发货量预计为289万吨，环比增加33万吨，同比下降7万吨。8月份乌克兰无人机的 攻击导致多家俄罗斯炼厂受损而检修，其燃料油供应仍面临一定制约，近期出口有所恢复。往前看，如果俄乌谈 判进展顺利，美国放松制裁、乌克兰停止袭击，俄罗斯燃料油供应存在进一步的增长空间。中东方面，随着欧佩 克放松减产（增产部分以中重质含硫原油为主），将对燃料油的供应 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-24燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡贸易消息人士称，亚洲低硫燃料油市场正面临供应过剩问题，且近期未见收紧迹象。低硫船 用燃料油的疲软走势导致新加坡低硫燃料油与高硫燃料油现货价差收窄；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油393.54美元/吨，基差为127元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为466.5美元/吨，基差为55元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油9月17日当周库存为2315.9万桶，增加12万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多减， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread oscillated, and the EW spread oscillated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal - external spread weakened slightly to -$0.8 [4]. - The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated at $9 [4]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory decreased, but it was still not the highest in the same period of history. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, this week's arrivals oscillated, the UAE's shipments rebounded month - on - month, and net exports increased significantly [5]. - The on - land inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East, decreased, the floating storage inventory of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the ARA residue inventory increased, and the US residue inventory decreased, with significant inventory contradictions [5]. - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur continued. In the heavy - quality pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy - quality crude oil was the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions later [5]. - This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated, the LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread widening. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From August 13th to 19th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $3.30, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by $2.86, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.31, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $13.13, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $15.99, LGO - Brent M1 increased by $2.45, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by $0.44 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil - **Swap Prices**: From August 13th to 19th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $4.28, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $2.45, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $3.20, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by $1.56, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by $0.75, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $14.74 [2][10]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 13th to 19th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $4.45, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $1.56, the 380 basis decreased by $0.35, the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by $3.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged [3]. Domestic FU - From August 13th to 19th, 2025, FU 01 decreased by 26, FU 05 decreased by 22, FU 09 decreased by 27, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 4, FU 05 - 09 increased by 5, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 1 [3]. Domestic LU - From August 13th to 19th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 9, LU 05 decreased by 1, LU 09 decreased by 25, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 8, LU 05 - 09 increased by 24, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 16 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread fluctuated, and the EW spread fluctuated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the internal - external spread of FU01 slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated at $9 [3][4]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory decreased, but the inventory was still not the highest in the same historical period. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, the arrivals oscillated this week, the shipments from the UAE rebounded month - on - month, and the net exports increased significantly. The on - shore inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East decreased, the floating storage of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the residue inventory in ARA increased, and the residue inventory in the US decreased, showing a large inventory contradiction [4]. - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. The LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken [4]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.94 | 389.64 | 394.21 | 390.27 | 388.24 | -2.03 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.82 | 448.06 | 453.27 | 452.69 | 450.47 | -2.22 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -3.23 | -3.58 | -3.95 | -4.33 | -4.85 | -0.52 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 638.66 | 628.39 | 631.89 | 635.32 | 624.89 | -10.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -185.84 | -180.33 | -178.62 | -182.63 | -174.42 | 8.21 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.10 | 21.18 | 20.51 | 21.97 | 19.81 | -2.16 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 55.88 | 58.42 | 59.06 | 62.42 | 62.23 | -0.19 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.22 | 394.38 | 391.90 | 390.95 | 390.54 | - | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 411.88 | 405.63 | 403.65 | 403.51 | 401.94 | - | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 484.51 | 476.53 | 476.59 | 476.79 | 479.27 | - | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.26 | 83.31 | 83.35 | 82.76 | 82.47 | - | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.02 | -3.07 | -3.49 | -4.09 | -4.49 | - | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -146.41 | -139.96 | -140.20 | -135.63 | -131.01 | - | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.64 | 388.41 | 387.09 | 387.36 | 387.68 | 0.32 | | FOB VLSFO | 483.55 | 475.21 | 476.12 | 477.51 | 475.97 | -1.54 | | 380 Basis | -3.95 | -4.05 | -3.95 | -3.40 | -2.90 | 0.50 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 1.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.1 | -2.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.5 | [2] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2800 | 2772 | 2750 | 2746 | 2739 | -7 | | FU 05 | 2770 | 2751 | 2736 | 2741 | 2735 | -6 | | FU 09 | 2770 | 2730 | 2700 | 2691 | 2713 | 22 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 4 | -1 | | FU 05 - 09 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 50 | 22 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -30 | -42 | -50 | -55 | -26 | 29 | [2] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3457 | 3430 | 3417 | 3420 | 3426 | 6 | | LU 05 | 3417 | 3394 | 3390 | 3395 | 3391 | -4 | | LU 09 | 3489 | 3442 | 3429 | 3423 | 3477 | 54 | | LU 01 - 05 | 40 | 36 | 27 | 25 | 35 | 10 | | LU 05 - 09 | -72 | -48 | -39 | -28 | -86 | -58 | | LU 09 - 01 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 51 | 48 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the FU01 internal - external spread strengthened slightly to $2.5. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $8. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high for the same period, and arrivals rebounded this week. UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, and net exports increased substantially. [6] - The divergence between the East and West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil is the strongest. It is expected to converge in both directions later. [6] - This week, LU's weakness was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 decreased slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread to widen, and short - term short positions in LU should exit. [6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$1.52 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$0.76 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.29 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +$6.27 | | VLSFO - G M1 | -$5.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | $0.00 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$2.28 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 380cst M1 | -$3.06 | | 180cst M1 | -$1.55 | | VLSFO M1 | -$1.64 | | GO M1 | +$1.06 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.17 | | VLSFO - GO M1 | -$9.49 | [3] Spot Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FOB 380cst | - | | FOB VLSFO | - | | 380 Basis | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$0.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$1.7 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FU 01 | -41 | | FU 05 | -42 | | FU 09 | -60 | | FU 01 - 05 | +1 | | FU 05 - 09 | +18 | | FU 09 - 01 | -19 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | LU 01 | -45 | | LU 05 | -34 | | LU 09 | -78 | | LU 01 - 05 | -11 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -33 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the analysis of fuel oil shows a mixed view with some factors being positive and others negative [3][4] Report's Core View - The fuel oil market has a complex situation. On one hand, the market sentiment has improved, but sufficient inventory may suppress future market fundamentals. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, and the supply in Singapore is expected to limit the upside potential. On the other hand, the reduction in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the spot premium over futures are positive factors. The market was previously weak due to trade negotiation uncertainties, but with the US - EU trade agreement and the possible extension of the China - US tariff exemption period, the fuel oil may stabilize in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 2820 - 2880 range, and LU2510 in the 3530 - 3580 range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily提示 - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors. The supply is sufficient, but the inventory has decreased. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short positions with a reduction in short positions. The market may stabilize in the short term due to trade - related news, and the prices of FU2509 and LU2510 are expected to operate within specific ranges [3] 2. 多空关注 - **Likely to rise**: There is an expected increase in summer power generation demand [4] - **Likely to fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3. 基本面数据 - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Aramco's competitive selling in the spot market and sufficient inventory may suppress future market fundamentals. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, and the supply in Singapore is expected to limit the upside potential [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 42 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 83 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels [3] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - **Main positions**: Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short positions, and the short positions are decreasing [3] 4. 价差数据 - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing a graph of high - low sulfur futures spreads [13] 5. 库存数据 - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has shown fluctuations. On July 23, it was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated at - $5, and the 09 oscillated at + $10. There was a large amount of near - month delivery cargo, maintaining a loose pattern [4]. - The low - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 oscillating around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly but was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, floating storage inventory oscillated, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were resolved. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month internal - external spread of FU is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East, while the LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 26 to July 2, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by $11.97, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by $2.45, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by $0.07, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $19.63, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $17.18, LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - $9.52 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From June 26 to July 2, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by $10.35, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by $9.17, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by $9.25, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by $3.21, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by - $0.03, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $14.50 [2][6]. - **Spot Data**: From June 26 to July 2, the FOB 380cst price changed by - $0.39, FOB VLSFO changed by $2.85, the 380 basis changed by - $3.55, the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by - $0.6, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged [3]. Domestic Fuel Oil Data - **FU Data**: From June 26 to July 2, FU 01 changed by - 6, FU 05 changed by - 8, FU 09 changed by - 19, FU 01 - 05 changed by 2, FU 05 - 09 changed by 11, and FU 09 - 01 changed by - 13 [3]. - **LU Data**: From June 26 to July 2, LU 01 changed by - 7, LU 05 changed by - 3, LU 09 changed by 6, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 4, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 9, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 13 [4].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 2, 2025 [1][2] Market Data Rotterdam Market - From June 25 to July 1, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 414.85 to 405.07, a change of -0.79; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from 468.83 to 460.85, a change of -12.96 [3] Singapore Market - In the Singapore market, from June 25 to July 1, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 420.87 to 413.43, a change of -4.53; Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 428.68 to 421.09, a change of -4.65 [3][12] Domestic Market - For domestic FU, from June 25 to July 1, 2025, FU 01 increased by 5, FU 05 increased by 8, and FU 09 decreased by 11 [4] - For domestic LU, from June 25 to July 1, 2025, LU 01 decreased by -5, LU 05 decreased by -11, and LU 09 increased by 9 [5] Core Views - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the FU07 internal - external spread fluctuated at -$5, while the 09 spread fluctuated at +$10. There was a large amount of near - month delivery goods, maintaining a loose pattern [5] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly, and fluctuated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread fluctuating around $17 [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage fluctuated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, floating storage inventory fluctuated, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [6] - This week, geopolitical risks were resolved. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur fundamentals were in a fluctuating pattern. Recently, high - sulfur is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month FU internal - external spread is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly due to the expected tight supply in June. The supply of compliant low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be limited in the next two weeks due to the lack of medium - sulfur blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the increasing power generation demand as the Middle East and South Asia enter the peak air - conditioning electricity consumption season. - The spot prices of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are at a premium to the futures prices. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4. - The prices of fuel oil are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil main contracts have short positions, and the short positions are decreasing. - Overnight, with the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the financial market strengthened. Fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil, and the fundamentals are slightly strong. It is expected to perform better than crude oil today. The FU2507 is expected to trade in the range of 2930 - 2990, and the LU2508 is expected to trade in the range of 3530 - 3590 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main contract positions. It also gives the expected trading ranges for the FU2507 and LU2508 contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positives**: OPEC+ has extended additional production cuts (though implementation needs to be tracked), and China has issued import quotas. - **Likely Negatives**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the co - existence of supply - side production cuts that need to be observed and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight in the short term due to the lack of blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by power generation demand. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 261 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 201 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4 [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide detailed spread data analysis, but shows a chart of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil futures spread over a long - term period [14]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from March 26 to June 4 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels. The inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels in the week ending June 4 [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread declined slightly, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread oscillated at a high level, and the basis strengthened again. The low - sulfur crack spread oscillated, the near - end monthly spread oscillated, and the basis weakened [3][4]. - This week, inventories continued to accumulate on land in Singapore, slightly increased at ARA ports, decreased for US residual oil, and significantly decreased at Fujairah. After the low - sulfur valuation was realized recently, there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and the monthly spread after supply recovers. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, basically unchanged in Singapore, and the total marine fuel was weak year - on - year. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities in the future. Recently, the net import of Saudi residual oil has rebounded, and Egypt's purchases continue. The high - sulfur near - end remains strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium and long term [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 6.04, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 7.05, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.19, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 9.43, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 2.38, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.43, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 1.01 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 6.98, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 6.83, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 7.07, Singapore GO M1 increased by 1.09, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.26, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 decreased by 0.99 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 11.43, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 7.14, the 380 basis increased by 4.10, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.9, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 5, FU 05 increased by 10, FU 09 increased by 13, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 5, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 8 [2]. Domestic LU - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 48, LU 05 increased by 24, LU 09 increased by 46, LU 01 - 05 increased by 24, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 22, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 2 [3].