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贝森特暗示美联储未来方向:通胀“区间制”,取消“点阵图”,支持财政部,回归“幕后”
美股研究社· 2025-12-25 10:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's suggestion for significant adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including the introduction of an inflation "range" system and the potential elimination of the widely watched interest rate "dot plot" [3][4][7]. Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Becerra advocates for a shift from a fixed inflation target of 2% to a more flexible range system, such as 1.5% to 2.5% or 1% to 3%, once inflation is under control [4][7]. - He criticizes the current use of the "dot plot" as a communication tool, suggesting it may be abolished to reduce market dependence on short-term interest rate predictions [7][8]. Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Becerra harshly criticizes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, labeling them as an "engine of inequality" that has exacerbated wealth disparities by artificially inflating asset prices [8]. - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations and not be a long-term strategy, highlighting that the Fed faces approximately $100 billion in annual losses from high-priced bond purchases [8]. Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - Becerra emphasizes the need for closer coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates a commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to facilitate fiscal tightening [10]. - He envisions a future economic landscape where fiscal and monetary policies work in tandem, aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2026 [10].
贝森特暗示美联储未来方向:通胀“区间制”,取消“点阵图”,支持财政部,回归“幕后”
美股IPO· 2025-12-24 04:13
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, supports a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's inflation target once inflation stabilizes at 2%, suggesting a shift to a range-based target [1][4] Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent criticizes the current fixed inflation target and advocates for a more flexible range, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%, arguing that economic systems are complex and nonlinear [1][4] - He suggests the potential elimination of the "dot plot" tool used for guiding market expectations on interest rates, aiming to reduce market dependency on short-term predictions [3][4] - Bessent indicates that the new Federal Reserve chair may favor a reduction in the Fed's role, moving away from being the central focus of economic policy [3][4][6] Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Bessent labels quantitative easing as an "engine of inequality," asserting that it has artificially inflated asset prices and widened the wealth gap between asset holders and wage earners [5][6] - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations, contrasting current practices with historical norms where central banks would remit profits to the Treasury [5][6] Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent emphasizes the need for closer collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to support fiscal tightening [7] - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like providing investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy [7]
贝森特暗示美联储未来方向:通胀“区间制”,取消“点阵图”,支持财政部,回归“幕后”
华尔街见闻· 2025-12-24 04:01
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's suggestions for significant adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including the introduction of an inflation "range" instead of a fixed target and the potential elimination of the widely watched interest rate "dot plot" [1][6]. Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent advocates for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's intervention in the economy, suggesting a return to a more traditional behind-the-scenes role and improved policy coordination with the Treasury [2][9]. - He emphasizes that while the inflation target of 2% should not be adjusted until inflation is under control, he supports the introduction of a flexible "range" concept for future targets [2][8]. - Bessent criticizes the current use of the "dot plot" as a tool for guiding market expectations on interest rates, indicating that it may be abolished under new leadership to reduce market dependency on short-term rate predictions [6][8]. Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing and Economic Inequality - Bessent harshly criticizes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, labeling them as an "engine of inequality" that has exacerbated wealth disparities by artificially inflating asset prices [10]. - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations and not used as a long-term strategy, highlighting that the Fed currently faces approximately $100 billion in annual losses due to high-priced bond purchases [10]. Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent calls for closer cooperation between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates a commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to facilitate fiscal tightening [12]. - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like the "Trump accounts" to provide investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy and equity ownership [12].
美联储要降息100个基点?人民币进入6时代,美国疯狂押注国运
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 03:52
美联储理事沃勒 除了降息之外,现在的美国无论是美联储还是特朗普政府似乎都无法找到拯救美股AI泡沫破裂的方法。 随着甲骨文的业绩暴雷,华尔街以及全球金融市场对于美国将整个国运押注到AI行业发展的突破质疑声音已经是越来越大。 伴随着纳斯达克指数的下跌2026年美联储真的会连续降息100个基点吗?对于人民币和人民币资产会产生什么样的影响? 建设特朗普账户? 12月17日英国《金融时报》报道称,Blue Owll将不会支持甲骨文下一个100亿美元的数据中心交易。 这个消息虽然不大,但是对于整个AI科技公司和纳斯达克指数来说相当于晴天霹雳,这意味着美国的科技公司现金流紧张,无法继续支撑对AI芯片甚至硬 件的支出。 其实说白了给满足标准的美国人加税,这部分税收将会是建立新生儿ETF,或者是特朗普账户的资金来源。 科技股的连续表现受挫,让纳斯达克指数跌幅一度达到了1.8%,走出了持续下跌的走势。可以预见的是,如果特朗普政府和美联储不尽快采取行动,那么 更糟糕的情况就会发生。 目前看空美元资产的情绪已经大幅度蔓延,只要美股的AI相关公司爆出任何不好的消息都会导致美股的全面下跌,甚至连虚拟货币市场也受到影响,比特 币的价格一度 ...
“特朗普账户”再获企业支持
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 15:43
Core Insights - BlackRock (BLK) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) have joined philanthropists such as Michael Dell and Ray Dalio to fund a children's "Trump Account" initiative, where the government will deposit up to $1,000, and donors can contribute an additional maximum of $250 [1][2]. Group 1 - BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon are participating in a philanthropic initiative aimed at supporting children [1][2]. - The initiative involves government contributions of up to $1,000 per child, with additional donations allowed from private donors [1][2].
马斯克炮轰“特朗普账户”!达里奥、戴尔狂撒百亿,他却认为多此一举?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 07:47
Core Viewpoint - Billionaire Ray Dalio plans to match a donation of $250 for children in Connecticut, following a similar initiative by Michael Dell and his wife, who donated $250 each to children under 10 through the "Trump Accounts" initiative [1][7]. Group 1: Donations and Initiatives - The Dell family has recently donated $6.25 billion to provide $250 each to 25 million eligible children under 10 across the U.S., with Dalio's involvement increasing the initiative's visibility [1][7]. - The "Trump Accounts" initiative aims to establish accounts for children born between 2025 and 2028, with the government providing an initial $1,000 for investment in low-cost index funds [1][7]. - Dalio's matching donation is expected to benefit approximately 300,000 eligible children in Connecticut [1][7]. Group 2: Philosophical and Educational Aspects - Dalio emphasizes the need for reform in capitalism, stating that the "Trump Accounts" not only invest in stocks for young people but also educate them on finance and capitalism [2][8]. - He plans to conduct financial literacy education activities alongside the donation [2][8]. - Dalio and his wife have pledged over $7 billion to the Dalio Foundation and are members of the "Giving Pledge" [2][8]. Group 3: Responses and Future Participation - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced more details about the "Trump Accounts" and initiated a "50 State Challenge" to encourage billionaires across the states to participate [2][8]. - Elon Musk, the world's richest person, expressed skepticism about the necessity of such initiatives, suggesting that future advancements will eliminate poverty [9][10]. - Dalio hopes other philanthropists will follow suit and engage in the "Trump Accounts" initiative and the "50 State Challenge" [10].
特朗普年终讲话“晒KPI”,透露美联储主席人选、住房改革等信息
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 07:41
Group 1 - President Trump addressed the nation on December 17, highlighting achievements over the past 11 months and announcing measures to alleviate economic anxiety among the public [1][4] - Trump claimed to have reduced costs for various goods and services, including gasoline, eggs, airline tickets, and hotels, while also increasing wage growth and curbing immigration [1][4] - The announcement included the upcoming selection of a new Federal Reserve chair, with candidates likely being National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed Governor Warsh, both of whom have differing views on monetary policy [1][4] Group 2 - Trump revealed that the government sent checks of $1,776 to 1.45 million military personnel, a figure symbolizing the year of America's founding [6] - Recent polls indicate that public concern over economic issues is high, with only 33% of Americans approving of Trump's economic management and 39% approving of his overall job performance [6] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated the vision of the "Trump Account" plan, aimed at increasing stock market participation among Americans, with a one-time deposit of $1,000 for newborns to invest in index funds [6]
一文读懂“特朗普账户”:给新生儿发1000美元买股票,18年后能变成多少钱?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-18 06:10
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has reiterated the vision of the "Trump Account" plan aimed at increasing stock ownership among Americans, with a goal to reduce the 38% of Americans who currently do not own any stocks to zero [1][2]. Group 1: Plan Overview - The "Trump Account" is part of the "Big Beautiful Plan" and aims to reshape American households' balance sheets through government funding and compounding effects [1]. - The plan will automatically deposit $1,000 for eligible newborns, which could grow significantly by retirement age, potentially reaching around $600,000 based on a 10.5% annual growth rate of the S&P 500 [1][3]. - The plan is designed to supplement the social security system, allowing more Americans to participate in the distribution of corporate value creation [2]. Group 2: Financial Projections - Without additional contributions, the initial $1,000 could grow to $5,800 in 18 years and $18,100 in 28 years [3]. - If families contribute an additional $250 annually, the account value at adulthood could reach approximately $20,700, while maximum contributions of $5,000 per year could lead to over $300,000 by age 18 [3]. Group 3: Funding Sources - The plan features a diverse funding structure, allowing contributions from federal funds, businesses, philanthropists, and state governments [4]. - For children not qualifying for the $1,000 seed funding, additional support of $250 will be provided for those in households earning below $150,000, funded by notable philanthropists [4]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The plan is expected to officially open for contributions after July 4, 2026, with parents required to register through a specific form or website [5]. Group 5: Criticism and Concerns - Critics argue that the tax incentives are insufficient, as funds are sourced from after-tax income and may not provide better tax treatment than traditional brokerage accounts [6]. - There are concerns that the opt-in registration mechanism may exclude low-income families who do not file taxes, undermining the goal of reducing wealth inequality [6]. Group 6: Ideological Intent - The plan aims to cultivate a new generation of "capitalists" by enabling young people to experience the investment system firsthand, potentially leading to a more favorable view of capital markets [7]. - Financial services are closely monitoring the plan's implementation, particularly regarding the selection of private institutions to manage the funds, which could impact market dynamics [2][7]. Group 7: Corporate Interest - Companies like Uber, Dell, and Charter Communications have expressed interest in contributing to employee children's accounts, indicating corporate support for the initiative [8].
新“全民炒股”时代来了!美国婴儿一出生即股东,贝莱德、达利欧等巨头集体入局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 02:31
Core Insights - Ray Dalio and BlackRock are joining a growing number of corporations and wealthy individuals in funding Trump's signature initiative, the "Trump Accounts" [1][6] - The initiative aims to provide investment accounts for American children, with initial funding and matching contributions from various companies [2][8] Group 1: Corporate Contributions - Dalio's foundation will donate $250 for each of the approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut to their "Trump Accounts" [1] - BlackRock announced it will match federal contributions for its employees' children's accounts, providing an initial $1,000 for each account [1] - Other companies like Visa, Mastercard, Uber, and Charter Communications are also listed as supporters, although details of their involvement remain unspecified [1][6] Group 2: Funding Details - Michael and Susan Dell announced a donation of $6.25 billion to provide $250 for each of 25 million American children, targeting older children who do not qualify for federal funding [2][10] - The New York Mellon Bank has also launched a plan to match federal contributions for eligible newborns [2] - The initiative is expected to attract more donors from all 50 states to contribute to these tax-advantaged savings accounts [8] Group 3: Account Structure and Benefits - The "Trump Accounts" will be available for every child born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, with an initial funding of $1,000 invested in index funds [8][9] - Parents can contribute up to $5,000 annually to these accounts, which are managed in the child's name until they turn 18 [8][9] - The initiative is designed to promote wealth accumulation across generations, with projections suggesting that initial investments could grow significantly over time [9][10]
12月18日外盘头条:美光科技公布强劲营收展望 亚马逊重组AI部门 美欲借新一轮制裁施压俄接受和平协议
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 22:08
全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有: 白宫在周三公布了 "特朗普账户" 的新动态,其中包括对冲基金亿万富翁经理雷伊・达利欧及其妻子芭 芭拉的一笔追加捐款,这笔款项将用于资助儿童储蓄账户。 美国准备在普京拒绝俄乌和平协议的情况下对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁 据知情人士透露,美国准备在俄罗斯总统普京拒绝俄乌和平协议的情况下,对俄罗斯能源行业实施新一 轮制裁,以加大对莫斯科的压力。 因涉及内部磋商而要求匿名的知情人士表示,美国正在考虑多种选项,例如针对用于运输俄罗斯原油的 所谓"影子油轮船队"的船只,以及便利相关交易的贸易商等。 1、美国准备在普京拒绝俄乌和平协议的情况下对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁 2、达利欧追加捐款、戴尔捐62.5亿!一文了解特朗普儿童储蓄账户 3、美光科技公布强劲营收展望 人工智能硬件投资继续提振存储芯片需求 4、亚马逊重组AI部门:芯片、量子计算与AGI业务整合 5、贝森特称对哈塞特执掌美联储的任何担忧都是"荒谬的" 6、诺华和罗氏据悉接近与美国政府就药品价格达成协议 部分知情人士称,新的措施最快可能在本周公布。 达利欧追加捐款、戴尔捐62.5亿!一文了解特朗普儿童储蓄账户 过去一周,包括纽约 ...