美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 第一种结局是"彻底替代"。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素 中，"资本"本身变成了"劳动力"本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作， 财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入"东西很多、但没 人买得起"的困境。 第二种结局则是"历史重演"。AI像以往技术革命一样提高效率，却没有彻底取代人类劳动，仅仅是"赋 能"人类，新的工作不断出现，政策体系仍能修补冲击。在这种情况下，经济运行逻辑与过去几十年相 似，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。 2月27日，当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结"工作会不会被抢走"。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭 窄了。据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个 极端终局： ...

当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结"工作会不会被抢走"。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。 据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个极端终 局： 第一种结局是"彻底替代"。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素 中，"资本"本身变成了"劳动力"本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作， 财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入"东西很多、但没 人买得起"的困境。 马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于"机器"的著作，构想了全面自动 化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，资本主 义将变得过时，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃 隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。 从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完 全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的"相对稀缺 性"决定的。 回顾过去两百年的历史，以前 ...

美东时间10月29日，美股一开盘，英伟达股价再创历史新高，成为史上第一个市值突破5万亿美元的公司。 根据《2024年全球高科技行业报告》的数据显示，AI软硬件市场2027年市场规模将有望达到9900亿美元。 尽管AI 的发展相对隐秘而不透明，难以精确统计全球参与该产业的具体人数，但肯定已超过百万。若按目前的速度持续发展，这一规模还将显著扩大。 每当我们使用搜索引擎、与聊天机器人交流，甚至只是简单地使用智能吸尘器打扫卫生时，我们都在触发全球数据和资本的流动，这种流动将全球各地的 工人、公司和消费者紧密相连。 然而，许多科技公司在对外展示时，只呈现出光鲜、时尚、自主运行的机器形象，让人们认为机器能检索海量数据并自主学习，却刻意隐瞒了这些机器的 制造过程，对那些拿着微薄薪水、艰辛训练机器却又被机器所束缚的幕后工作者避而不谈。 在 《投喂AI：人工智能行业的全球底层工人纪实》中，牛津大学的 3位学者花费十余年时间，穿越肯尼亚、乌干达、爱尔兰、冰岛、英国和美国，深入 访谈了200多名数据标注员、内容审核员、机器学习工程师、AI伦理学家、仓库员工、劳工组织者和行业专家，揭开了AI全球产业链的神秘面纱，生动展 现了那些常被 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the response of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to a Gallup poll indicating that 39% of Americans have a positive view of socialism, while the approval rating for capitalism has dropped from 60% in 2021 to 54% last year [1] - Bessent links the positive perception of socialism to the fact that 38% of American households do not have stock market exposure, promoting the "Trump Account" initiative as a means to increase participation in economic growth [1] - The "Trump Account" is a key benefit of the "Big and Beautiful Act," which will automatically inject $1,000 into a low-cost index fund tracking the S&P 500 for newborns from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, with additional contributions allowed from parents and employers [1] Group 2 - Bessent revealed that over 600,000 families have completed account registration within three days of the tax season opening, with the "Trump Account" set to launch on July 4, coinciding with the 250th anniversary of American independence [2] - An article from Fortune magazine criticized Bessent's claims, stating that the data he referenced regarding non-investing households is inaccurate, with a report from the Philadelphia Fed indicating that approximately 57.2% of American households do not invest in the stock market [2] - The article also pointed out that correlation does not imply causation, noting that dissatisfaction among young Americans with the current economic model stems from structural issues such as low wages, high debt, and rising housing costs, and that stock market gains are concentrated among the top 10% of households [2]

真正值得深入探究的，或许已经不在于当代美国青年为何"再次走向社会主义"，而是美国Z世代的社会 主义热忱与过去相比，发生了哪些变化。 其一，从规模与可见性来看，美国Z世代对社会主义的认同更加普遍，也更为公开。前两个历史周期 中，美国青年社会主义者的规模较小，其在政治表达上的独立性与可见性相对较弱，更多是通过社会主 义政党下设的青年组织来参与思想宣传或支持工人罢工。而如今的Z世代借助自媒体平台和公共舆论空 间，直接表达自身立场，并利用选票工具将自己的政策偏好转变为现实影响。这使得当代美国的青年社 会主义者不再依附于传统组织，而以更加显性的方式引起社会关注。 其二，从组织形式与思想基础来看，美国Z世代的社会主义思潮呈现明显的去组织化、去理论化特点。 过去，美国的青年社会主义者多内嵌于工会体系或社会主义左派政党中，需要接受系统的理论训练，并 在纪律约束下参与政治实践。而在当下，美国Z世代对社会主义的支持，更多体现在情绪表达和价值态 度上。许多美国年轻人并未加入任何青年社会主义组织，仅在社交媒体上自我标榜为"社会主义者"，并 在具体的政策选择中表现出明显的民主社会主义倾向。他们对"社会主义"概念的界定不甚相同，因此难 ...

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the relationship between AI development and capital investment, questioning whether AI production requires capital as a prerequisite [1][2] - The article critiques the notion that capitalism is solely driven by profit maximization, suggesting that modern society has developed a belief in the importance of making money without a clear purpose for its use [2][3] - Elon Musk's provocative statement about the potential disappearance of currency implies that wealth accumulation is a social construct rather than an objective reality, hinting at the possibility of AI replacing capitalism [3][4] Group 1: AI and Capitalism - The article raises the question of whether AI production is dependent on capital investment, contrasting it with traditional industries where capital is essential for production [1] - Musk's assertion that "wealth accumulation is meaningless without humans" suggests a shift in perspective on the role of capital in society, indicating that AI could redefine production dynamics [3] - The potential for AI to enhance productivity is acknowledged, but the article questions the implications for ownership of production resources and the distribution of wealth [3][4] Group 2: Political and Social Implications - The text discusses the historical context of capitalism and its relationship with political structures, emphasizing the need for a reevaluation of economic systems in light of technological advancements [2][4] - The concept of technological equality is introduced, questioning whether AI can genuinely distribute power and resources fairly among the population, given past experiences with technology centralization [3][4] - The article highlights concerns about the future of employment and taxation in a society increasingly reliant on AI, raising questions about the sustainability of government and social structures [4]

Group 1 - Westpac's commodity research head Robert Rennie indicates that global financial markets are underestimating the seriousness of the situation regarding Greenland, particularly in light of the Trump administration's attempts to exert control over the territory [1] - The market is awaiting Trump's speech at the Davos Forum and the results of an emergency European summit to better understand the severity of the situation [1] Group 2 - Bank of America reports that global investor sentiment has reached its highest level since July 2021, with a significant drop in cash holdings to a historical low of 3.2% [2] - The bank's bull-bear indicator has surged to an "ultra-bull" level of 9.4, with 38% of surveyed fund managers expecting economic strength and concerns about recession at a two-year low [2] - Liquidity conditions are the best since 2021, and nearly half of respondents have no hedging measures against a significant stock market decline [2] Group 3 - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that global capitalism is losing public trust as prosperity is not benefiting a wide population, suggesting that success should be measured by people's ability to perceive and feel it [3] - Fink expresses concerns that artificial intelligence could exacerbate inequality, urging Davos to listen more to the voices of ordinary people rather than just the elite [3] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs predicts that emerging market equities will be the most attractive investment destination globally over the next one and five years, with an expected base return rate of 8% [4] - The probability of emerging market returns exceeding expectations is estimated at 20%, while the chance of experiencing low single-digit negative returns is 25% [4] Group 5 - Citigroup's Japan market head, Akira Hoshino, suggests that if the yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times in 2026, potentially doubling the current rate [5] - Hoshino indicates that if the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeds 160, a rate hike could occur as early as April, with further hikes possible in July and by the end of the year [5] Group 6 - Tokyo State Street Asset Management's senior fixed income strategist, Masahiko Loo, states that the "high market trade" strategy remains effective, with shorting the yen being the simplest strategy [6] - Loo notes a significant herd effect in the Japanese market, leading banks to refrain from buying until the Bank of Japan raises rates [6] Group 7 - CICC reports that recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is partly due to seasonal increases in settlement demand, particularly in December and January [7] - The report highlights that historically, the RMB has appreciated by 0.5% and 0.8% against the USD in December and January, respectively, with probabilities of appreciation at 75% and 67% [7] Group 8 - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that AI and anti-involution themes may become the main lines of the A-share market in 2026, with AI-driven trends extending from upstream infrastructure to downstream applications [8] - The report notes that AI's contribution to improving PPI is primarily reflected in the prices of non-ferrous metals and technology sectors [8] Group 9 - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism about the dividend value of the banking sector, citing structural monetary policy tools and improving credit demand as supportive factors [9] - The report anticipates that the first batch of listed banks will show stable recovery in performance, with ongoing policy effects expected to be released [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities sees high certainty in the development of computing power and anticipates significant investment opportunities in domestic computing chips and system-level manufacturers by 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in various sectors, suggesting a focus on office, coding, agent, and multi-modal AI applications [10] Group 11 - CITIC Securities notes a cooling of market speculation, with record outflows from the ETF market, while technology and cyclical sector ETFs continue to attract funds [11] - The report suggests that a multi-dimensional comparative allocation strategy is more prudent in the current environment, recommending attention to various ETFs in sectors like new energy and healthcare [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of AI on capitalism and the potential for AI to replace traditional economic structures, questioning the necessity of capital investment for production in the future [3][5][7]. Group 1: Capital and AI - The development of AI raises questions about the role of capital in production, suggesting that AI may not require capital investment as a prerequisite for production [3]. - The author references Marx Weber's idea that capitalism emerged from a new ethical framework, but argues that this perspective is outdated as modern economies recognize the need for consumption to drive production [4]. - The article highlights a statement by Elon Musk regarding the potential disappearance of currency, emphasizing that wealth accumulation is a social construct rather than an objective reality [5]. Group 2: Technology and Power Distribution - The article suggests that Musk's comments imply a belief in technological equality, where AI could distribute power and resources more equitably among individuals [6]. - It questions the historical trend of technological advancements leading to centralization of power, contrasting it with the promise of decentralization that new technologies like AI claim to offer [6]. - The author references Peter Thiel's argument that modern economics cannot effectively address political issues, suggesting that technological advancements may be the key to resolving these challenges [7]. Group 3: Societal Implications of AI - The article raises concerns about the societal impact of AI, particularly regarding job displacement and the implications for taxation and government structure [7]. - It questions the feasibility of AI replacing human roles and the potential consequences for social rights and responsibilities [7]. - The author expresses skepticism about the notion that AI can fully replicate human intelligence, emphasizing the limitations of AI in understanding human experience [7].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "slaughter line" has emerged as a cultural phenomenon in the U.S., highlighting the inherent characteristics of capitalism, particularly how it deals with individuals who fall below a certain financial threshold [3][4][8]. Group 1: Definition and Implications of the "Slaughter Line" - The "slaughter line" refers to a critical point where an individual's financial and living conditions become so precarious that a minor setback can lead to irreversible negative consequences, resulting in a rapid decline in their social standing [9][10]. - The existence of the "slaughter line" illustrates the capitalist system's prioritization of capital preservation over individual welfare, leading to a mechanism that quickly discards those who can no longer contribute value [4][6]. Group 2: Societal Consequences - The consequences of falling below the "slaughter line" include increased medical debt, homelessness, and substance abuse, with statistics indicating that 40% of American adults carry medical debt totaling $220 billion, and 66% of personal bankruptcies are related to medical expenses [10][12]. - The phenomenon of homelessness has surged, with over 650,000 individuals reported as homeless in the U.S. as of January 2023, marking a 12% increase from the previous year [10][12]. Group 3: Structural Factors Contributing to the "Slaughter Line" - Wealth and income inequality in the U.S. is stark, with the top 1% of households holding 30.5% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% possess only 2.5% [13][14]. - The lack of a comprehensive social safety net exacerbates the situation, as U.S. social welfare spending is only about 16% of GDP, lower than the OECD average, and many low-income families lack adequate health insurance [13][14]. Group 4: Government Response and Limitations - The U.S. government has implemented measures such as unemployment benefits and emergency rental assistance, but these are often seen as temporary solutions that do not address the root causes of poverty and inequality [19][20]. - Political polarization and limited resources hinder the effectiveness of public policies aimed at addressing the issues surrounding the "slaughter line," leading to a lack of long-term solutions [20][21].

【文/观察者网专栏作者 周德宇】 通过"牢A"的出圈，想必今年很多人都了解到了美国西雅图这个城市中，底层生活的悲惨一面。想要理 解为什么西雅图这样一个看似经济发达科技先进的城市，底层会有这样的遭遇，我们可以从一个词谈 起，就是"士绅化"（gentrification），毕竟西雅图就是美国"士绅化"问题最严重的城市之一。 在美国前 可能这位读者想的是我国城市发展的时候，被拆迁的人会领到补偿款，所以他觉得士绅化导致流离失所 的人都是活该——怎么说呢，这就是文化差异了，你从中国人的常识角度，是不可能理解美国在发生什 么的。 士绅化的过程，正如资本主义的过程一样，往往是伴随着无形甚至有形的暴力的。看不见的手自然就不 用说了，对于大部分没有积蓄的美国人来说，他们完全无法应对生活成本的上涨。而对于本来就处于租 金最低廉区域的穷人来说，士绅化带来的房租增长往往意味着他们直接没有任何容身之处，连消费降级 的希望都没有。至于补偿款？那是给地主的，跟你们普通人有什么关系？ 100个大城市中，西雅图市的士绅化程度排在第三位 图自《西雅图时报》 士绅化是什么意思呢？是一个街区吸引更多的资本和人才流入的过程，是一个街区减少犯罪增加便利 ...