独立储能机遇与产业实操 (闭门分享会) 2025年12月16-17日上海 主办方: SMG 第四经 ( Jack看租赁 独立储能业务市场分析和项目筛选机制 分享嘉宾：天炜新能总经理 徐晓栋 公司托管运营独立储能电站超5GWh 独立储能市场开发和业务实战 分享嘉宾:天炜新能副总裁 韩冬 主管独立储能业务市场开发和运营工作 独立储能融资租赁业务实战和风险管理 分享嘉宾:Jack看租赁 创始人 王俊鹏 培训业务服务租赁公司超 800 家 2 | | 12月16-17日(周二、周三) < | | --- | --- | | 9:30-12:00< 12月 16日< 14:00-16:30< | 独立储能业务市场分析和项目筛选机制(2 | | | 独立储能市场开发和业务实战2 | | 16:30-17:30< | 融资租赁赋能独立储能产业发展研讨会(2 | | 12月17日 9:30-12:00(2 | 独立储能融资租赁业务实战和风险管理(2 | | | 线下(上海) < | 详细议程 第一部分 12月16日 9:30-12:00 独立储能业务市场分析和项目筛选机制 分享嘉宾：天炜新能 联合创始人兼总经理 徐晓栋 全球 ...

Group 1 - The company is focusing on the development of energy storage solutions, including household storage, commercial and industrial storage, and large-scale storage [2] - The company has already made some shipments of household storage solutions to the European market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth potential of energy storage demand, particularly in relation to lithium carbonate demand, driven by the increasing installation of renewable energy sources and the need for energy storage solutions to balance supply and demand [5][6]. Group 1: Energy Storage Demand Growth - Since Q3 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded from its annual low, with the current fluctuation center elevated to the level seen in Q1 of this year, where the growth rate of energy storage demand is a key unexpected driver [5][7]. - The cumulative production of energy storage cells from January to November is expected to reach 465.23 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%, indicating that energy storage battery production has maintained high growth rates in recent years [7][10]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged significantly, reaching 113,500 yuan per ton as of November 3, up 129% from the lowest point in July, further highlighting the robust growth in energy storage [10]. Group 2: Future Growth Space for Energy Storage - The article discusses the basic concept of energy storage, which is essential for stabilizing the power system due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar [14][20]. - By 2024, the global installed capacity of energy storage projects is expected to reach 372.0 GW, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, with lithium-ion batteries continuing to dominate the market [24]. - The article predicts that from 2026 to 2030, the annual new installation of lithium-ion energy storage could see an average growth rate of 52% to 118%, depending on various factors [51][52]. Group 3: Lithium Demand from Energy Storage - The demand for lithium carbonate from energy storage is projected to reach significant levels, but it may not surpass the demand from the electric vehicle sector until 2028 [52][54]. - The article suggests that the growth of lithium-ion storage is not uniform and may exceed theoretical estimates due to policy support and economic viability, indicating a potential for substantial increases in lithium demand [54][55]. - The total capacity of domestic energy storage batteries may face short-term challenges in meeting installation demands, necessitating close monitoring of production expansion rates [54].

Core Viewpoint - The strong growth in global energy storage demand is driving significant increases in the stock price of Ruipu Lanjun (00666), which has risen over 6% recently, reflecting a robust market outlook for energy storage solutions [1] Industry Summary - The energy storage market is experiencing a surge in demand, with major manufacturers achieving capacity utilization rates exceeding 80%, and some nearing 90% as of the first half of 2025 [1] - Following the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements in China, independent energy storage demand is expected to grow rapidly, with an annual growth rate projected between 30% and 40% [1] - In the United States, project installation rates are anticipated to increase by approximately 40% ahead of a surge in demand [1] - European and emerging markets are expected to maintain high growth rates of 1-2 times [1] - The strong expansion in battery demand is leading to continuous full-capacity operations among battery manufacturers [1] Company Summary - Ruipu Lanjun achieved over 50 GWh in energy storage battery shipments from January to September 2025, positioning itself among the top global energy storage battery suppliers [1] - In the residential energy storage segment, Ruipu Lanjun holds the largest market share in the supply of 100Ah cells, thanks to stable partnerships with leading integrators such as Maitian Energy, Sige New Energy, and GoodWe [1]

Core Insights - The global energy storage market is experiencing explosive growth, driven by increasing demand as energy storage becomes essential for stabilizing and regulating power systems [3][4][5] - Major companies in the energy storage sector are reporting significant revenue increases, with forecasts predicting a nearly 50% growth in the global energy storage market by 2026 [3][10] Industry Overview - Energy storage is recognized as a core value in the power system, with its role as a "stabilizer" and "regulator" becoming increasingly important [3] - The synergy between renewable energy and energy storage is leading to a "spiral upward" development logic, where increased storage capacity supports further renewable energy growth [3][10] Company Performance - Haibo Sichuang reported a remarkable third-quarter performance in 2025, with revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.42%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 872.24% [4] - Sungrow Power achieved a revenue of 66.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 33% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 11.88 billion yuan, up 56% [5] - EVE Energy reported a revenue of 45 billion yuan, a 32.17% increase, with net profit reaching 2.816 billion yuan [5] Market Demand - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing, with significant orders reported from overseas markets, particularly in Europe, Australia, and the Middle East [7][10] - The energy storage battery and system integration sectors are seeing a surge in orders, with Chinese companies securing 308 overseas energy storage orders totaling 214.7 GWh in the first nine months of the year, a 131.75% increase year-on-year [7] Future Projections - Analysts predict that the energy storage market will maintain a high growth trajectory into 2026, with a shift in demand structure towards longer-duration storage solutions [9][10] - The market is expected to see a significant increase in demand for AIDC (AI Data Center) energy storage systems, with a transition from "demand explosion" to "scale deployment" anticipated [9] Competitive Landscape - Companies in the solar energy sector, such as Trina Solar and JinkoSolar, are increasingly focusing on energy storage as a new growth point to enhance profitability amid pressures in the solar market [10][11] - Trina Solar has set a target of 8 GWh for energy storage shipments in 2025, with plans to double this figure in 2026 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's profitability improved sequentially in Q3 2025, with significant growth potential in independent storage and operation maintenance [1][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing domestic independent storage capacity and favorable pricing policies [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.2%, and a net profit of 620 million yuan, up 98.6% year-on-year [8] - Q3 2025 revenue reached 3.39 billion yuan, reflecting a sequential increase of 124.4% and a year-on-year increase of 14% [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.6%, with a net profit margin of 9% [8] - The company expects to maintain a total shipment of 30 GWh for the year, with projections of 70 GWh for 2026 [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 6.982 billion yuan (2023A), 8.270 billion yuan (2024A), 11.990 billion yuan (2025E), 19.252 billion yuan (2026E), and 28.081 billion yuan (2027E) [1] - Net profit forecasts are: 578.12 million yuan (2023A), 647.84 million yuan (2024A), 911.01 million yuan (2025E), 1.902 billion yuan (2026E), and 3.091 billion yuan (2027E) [1] - The expected P/E ratios are 85.51 (2023A), 76.31 (2024A), 54.26 (2025E), 25.99 (2026E), and 15.99 (2027E) [1]

Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions - Shenzhen has issued the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Mergers and Acquisitions and Restructuring (2025-2027)", aiming for a total market value of listed companies to exceed 20 trillion yuan by the end of 2027 and to complete over 200 merger projects with a total transaction amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The plan includes the establishment of a matrix of merger funds to foster a trillion-level "20+8" industrial fund group, promoting collaborative mergers in key industrial chains [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Unicom reported a net profit of 8.772 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a revenue of 292.985 billion yuan, up 1% [3][6] - Q3 results for various companies include: - Q3 revenue of 1.946 billion yuan for Qianfang Technology, up 5.69%, with a net profit of 19.224 million yuan, up 445.61% [3] - Q3 revenue of 2.4 billion yuan for Kaisheng New Materials, up 19.96%, with a net profit of 27.2706 million yuan [4] - Q3 revenue of 10.6 billion yuan for Taotao Vehicle, up 27.73%, with a net profit of 264 million yuan, up 121.44% [5] - Q3 revenue of 1.05 billion yuan for *ST Chengchang, up 266.57%, with a net profit of 33.7253 million yuan, up 565.20% [5] Group 3: Corporate Actions - Farsen plans to sell a 10% stake in China Belkalt Steel Cord Co., which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [5] - Time Space Technology announced plans to acquire 100% of Shenzhen Jiahe Jingwei Electronics Technology Co., which is also expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [5] - China Unicom intends to spin off its subsidiary Zhinet Technology for a listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market [6] - Meili Ecology has received a notice from a creditor applying for restructuring due to inability to repay debts, indicating potential financial distress [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, there may be a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. - The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increasing tender volume indicates strong installation demand. However, the overall increase in supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,000 yuan/ton with no change; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 72,660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 72,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 72,960 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 72,940 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 72,800 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 828 yuan/ton with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1025 yuan/ton, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1725 yuan/ton, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6025 yuan/ton, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7125 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,530 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 155,800 yuan/ton with an increase of 1200 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 128,500 yuan/ton with an increase of 3000 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 132,650 yuan/ton with an increase of 1000 yuan/ton [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is 280 yuan/ton with a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 134,801 tons with a decrease of 2024 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 34,747 tons with an increase of 1255 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 59,765 tons with a decrease of 1128 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 40,290 tons with a decrease of 2150 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 33,076 tons with a decrease of 2104 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,330 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1394 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,178 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 5225 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, while demand increases, supply also increases simultaneously, and the futures price may mainly fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, production increases overall, which is the main factor suppressing the futures price. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and after the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, with the increase in tender volume indicating strong installation demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 with no change, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 with no change. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 [1][2] - Among futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,580 with a 0.33% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,340 with a 0.27% increase; lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,500 with a 0.38% increase; lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,440 with a 0.38% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 is 73,240 with a 0.6% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 843, down 15; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1110, down 15; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1835, down 20; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6080; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7190 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 152,350, up 2000; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,850, up 1500; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 129,850, up 2500 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 210, down 540; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160, down 100; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 100, up 60 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801, down 2024; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,747, up 1255; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,765, down 1128; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 40,290, down 2150; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 42,379, up 670 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 74,486, and the profit is - 2006; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,806, and the profit is - 7315 [3] Technological Breakthrough - A research team led by researcher Huang Xuejie from the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Physics, in collaboration with Huazhong University of Science and Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, developed an anion regulation technology, solving the problem of poor contact between the electrolyte and lithium electrode in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3] Market Demand and Supply - In the fourth quarter, it is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increase in tender volume indicates strong installation demand. The overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]

| | 锂云母 | | | | 电硕-工候价差 元/吨 | = 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1125 | | -15 | | TT/ H | | | 锂云母 | | | | | | | | (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1855 | | -20 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 6080 | | -70 | | | | | 磷锂铝石 | 7190 | | -95 | | | | | (Li20:7%-8%) | | | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 33640 | | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 150350 | | 1000 | | | | | 三元材料523 (单晶/动力型) | 122350 | | 600 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 127350 | | 700 | ...