证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|牧原股份（002714） 业绩表现亮眼，股东回报兑现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年08月25日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司披露 2025 年中报，实现营收 764.63 亿元，同比增长 34.46%；归母净利润 105.30 亿元， 同比上升 1169.77%；拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 9.32 元(含税)。公司 2025 年上半年 度生猪养殖业务板块营收 754.46 亿元，同比增长 34.68%；公司共销售生猪 4691.0 万头，其 中商品猪 3839.4 万头，仔猪 829.1 万头，种猪 22.5 万头。2025 年上半年，公司生产成绩持 续改善，生猪养殖成本逐月下降，2025 年 6 月生猪养殖完全成本低于 12.1 元/kg。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 马鹏 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 基本数据 | 总股本/流通股本(百万股) | 5,463/3,811 | | --- | --- | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) ...

牧原股份 (002714) 业绩兑现分红提升,生猪龙头量增本降高质量发展 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 s 、(维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 50.21 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 51.76/35.02 | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.81 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 191,330 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,771.10/11,919.76 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | 基础数据: | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 14.17 | | 资产负债率% | 56.06 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盛对比走势： 相关研究 《牧原股份 (002714) 点评: Q1 出栏高增 成本继续下降,扭亏为盈业绩延续兑现》 2025/04/25 《牧 ...

SAC 执业证书编号： 点评： 农林牧渔行业 2025 年 8 月 21 日 投资要点： 分析师：魏红梅 事件：公司发布了2025年中报。公司2025年上半年实现营业总收入764.63亿 元，同比增长34.46%；实现归母净利润105.3亿元，同比增长1169.77%。业绩 符合预期。 评 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 业绩大幅增长主要受益于生猪养殖业务和屠宰业务较快增长。2025 年上 半年，公司销售商品猪 3839.4 万头（包括向屠宰肉食类子公司合计销售 1138.8 万头），同比增长 32.5%，国内市场市占率约 10.5%；公司共计 屠宰生猪 1141.48 万头，同比增长 110.8%，占国内规模以上生猪定点屠 宰企业屠宰量的 6.2%；公司完成鲜、冻品猪肉销售 127.36 万吨，同比 增长 105.4%。上半年，公司养殖业务实现营业收入 754.46 亿元，同比 增长 34.68%，主要受益于生猪销量增长及猪价回升；屠宰、肉食业务实 现营业收入 193.45 亿元，同比增长 93.83%，主要受益于屠宰量增长。 公 司 研 究 生猪养殖成本优势显著。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dekang's pig farming business shows strong performance in the first half of 2025, with per-head profitability leading the industry, while poultry and meat business performance meets expectations. The company actively responds to national calls for high-quality development in the breeding industry, showcasing its responsibility as a leading pig enterprise [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.1 to 1.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 202% to 285% [2]. - The company anticipates a pig output of approximately 5.117 million heads in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a sales price of about 15 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The estimated total cost for pig farming is around 12.4 yuan per kilogram, leading to a per-head profit of approximately 300 to 320 yuan, placing it at the forefront of the industry [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - In the poultry segment, the company expects to sell 42.7 million yellow feathered chickens in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with a sales price of about 12.89 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The high-quality slow-growing yellow feathered chicken accounts for a significant proportion of the company's offerings, although the segment is currently under pressure due to low prices [2]. - The high-end meat business, in collaboration with Tonnis, is expected to start production in 2024 and is currently in the capacity ramp-up phase, with no short-term profit contribution anticipated [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The pig farming industry is gradually moving towards high-quality development, supported by policies, with leading companies expected to gain excess profits due to cost advantages [3]. - The yellow feathered chicken industry has seen significant capacity reduction after three years of downturn, providing a basis for price recovery, although the industry is currently facing deep losses due to low prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, leveraging its breeding advantages to keep livestock costs lower than peers [4]. - The company's self-bred Dekang E breed pigs have significantly reduced costs, with total costs estimated to be below 12.5 yuan per kilogram, placing it in the top tier of the industry [4]. - The company plans to develop its family farm model while promoting shared industry development benefits with cooperative farmers, aligning with national calls for responsible leadership in the pig farming sector [4].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is Dongrui Food Group Co., Ltd., with stock code 001201 [1] - The half-year performance forecast exchange meeting was held on July 14, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 765,000 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 116.18% [5] - Sales revenue from pig sales reached 1.067 billion yuan, up 71.71% compared to the same period last year [5] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 15.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.50% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Profit Forecast - The company expects a profit of 2.6 million to 3.9 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 102.36% to 103.54% year-on-year [5] - The turnaround to profitability is attributed to improved production management, increased capacity utilization, and reduced breeding costs [5] Group 4: Cost Management - The target for the complete cost in the second half of 2025 is below 14 yuan/kg [7] - Cost reduction channels include increased output from capacity release, improved management efficiency, and differentiation between export and domestic breeding systems [7] Group 5: Breeding Costs - The complete cost for contracted breeding pigs is approximately 13.5 yuan/kg, while self-bred pigs cost about 14.5 yuan/kg [8] - The company anticipates further reductions in self-bred pig costs with improved capacity utilization [8] Group 6: Future Plans - The company aims to achieve an output of 100,000 pigs in the contracted breeding segment over the next three years, with 60,000 pigs expected this year [9] - The company plans to implement a shareholder dividend return plan once profitability is achieved, considering its current rapid development phase and significant capital expenditures [10] Group 7: Key Metrics - The recent PSY (Pigs per Sow per Year) is approximately 25, and the cost of weaned piglets is about 310 yuan per head [11]

Core Insights - Multiple listed pig companies released their sales reports for June, indicating a general decline in sales prices and varying performance in sales volume and revenue among different companies [1][3][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - Muyuan Foods reported sales of 7.019 million pigs in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.35%, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, up 27.65% year-on-year [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.0073 million pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, showing a decline in sales volume and average price compared to May [3][4] - Shennong Group's sales volume decreased to 219,000 pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 385 million yuan, reflecting a drop in both sales volume and price [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling price of Muyuan Foods' pigs was 14.08 yuan/kg in June 2025, down 20.59% year-on-year [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group's average price for pigs was 14.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.40% [3] - Shennong Group's average price for pigs was 14.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.55% from May [4] Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - Many pig companies have managed to control breeding costs effectively, enhancing operational efficiency despite the overall low price trend [5][6][7] - New Hope reported a recent cost of 13 yuan/kg for fattened pigs, while Tianbang Bio aims to reduce costs to below 12.8 yuan/kg by the end of 2025 [7][8] - Muyuan Foods highlighted its cost advantage in piglet sales, contributing positively to its profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports for June from multiple listed pig companies indicate a general decline in both sales prices and volumes, with notable variations among different companies [3][5][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Leading pig company Muyuan Foods reported sales of 7.019 million pigs in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.35%, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, up 27.65% year-on-year [5]. - Another major player, Wens Foodstuff Group, sold 3.0073 million pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year price decline of 20.50% [6][7]. - Shennong Group reported a sales volume of 219,000 pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 385 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in both sales volume and price compared to May [8]. - Dabeinong's sales figures for June 2025 showed a total of 666,100 pigs sold, generating a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan, with a decline in sales price [9]. Group 2: Cost Control and Efficiency - Despite the overall low prices in the pig market, many companies have managed to maintain effective cost control through refined management practices [11][12]. - New Hope reported that its recent operating cost for fattened pigs is around 13 yuan per kilogram [13]. - Tianbang Biological aims to reduce its breeding costs to below 12.8 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2025, with a target of 6.5 to 7 million pigs for the year [14]. - Haida Group has made significant progress in reducing overall breeding costs due to its established breeding model and advantages in feed research and development [15]. - Muyuan Foods claims to have a cost advantage in piglet sales, contributing positively to its profitability [16].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the pig farming industry, with a focus on low-cost and high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Lihua Agricultural [68]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a phase of quality improvement after a period of rapid expansion and excess profits following the African swine fever outbreak [52][61]. - The average price of live pigs has shown stability with fluctuations, while the price of piglets has experienced a rise followed by a decline due to supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand [9][14]. - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising has remained stable, while the profitability of purchasing piglets has been volatile, indicating a challenging environment for external sourcing [14][64]. - The supply of breeding sows has stabilized, with a slight increase in the number of newborn piglets, which may exert pressure on pig prices in the latter half of the year [15][41]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards increased efficiency in breeding, with key metrics such as the number of healthy piglets per litter and survival rates remaining high [20][22]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.56 yuan/kg as of June 27, 2023, reflecting a 7.6% decrease since the beginning of the year but a 0.9% increase year-on-year [9]. - Piglet prices peaked in April 2023 but have since declined due to increased supply and lower demand [9]. Profitability - Self-breeding operations have maintained profitability, while external piglet sourcing has faced longer periods of loss, with an average loss of 132 yuan per head reported as of June 27, 2023 [14]. - The report indicates that the profitability of the industry is expected to improve as pig prices stabilize and the supply-demand balance adjusts [68]. Supply Dynamics - The number of newborn piglets increased by 10.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, indicating a potential increase in supply pressure on pig prices [15]. - The number of breeding sows has stabilized, with a slight increase noted, suggesting a balanced supply situation [15][41]. Cost Trends - The costs of corn and soybean meal have shown a downward trend compared to last year, contributing to lower overall breeding costs for both large-scale and small-scale farms [32]. - The report highlights that the cost control measures adopted by listed pig companies have become a core competitive advantage [55]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the second half of the year due to reduced supply pressure and seasonal demand increases [42][68]. - The industry is expected to continue focusing on quality improvement and cost efficiency as key drivers of profitability moving forward [68].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both pig sales volume and revenue in May, indicating challenges in the pig farming industry due to falling prices and market conditions [1][2]. Company Summary - In May, New Hope sold 1.3339 million pigs, generating revenue of 1.972 billion yuan, both figures showing a year-on-year and month-on-month decline [1]. - For the first five months of the year, the company achieved cumulative pig sales of 7.1193 million heads and sales revenue of 10.182 billion yuan [1]. - The average selling price of pigs in May was 14.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.75% decrease month-on-month and a 5.38% decrease year-on-year [1]. - New Hope aims to drive business growth through its feed, pig farming, and slaughtering segments, focusing on "flexible management, continuous cost reduction, and improving labor efficiency" [1]. Industry Summary - The pig market is currently characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a downward trend in prices [2]. - Analysts predict that the profitability of pig farming enterprises will show a divergence, with larger companies maintaining profitability due to cost advantages, while smaller enterprises may continue to face pressure [3]. - Despite low prices, the overall expansion in the industry is limited, and New Hope remains cautiously optimistic about the year, having achieved slight profits in the first quarter [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 51.30 [7][8]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant year-on-year increase in pig output, with April's output reaching 8.11 million heads, a 49% increase year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to April was 30.77 million heads, up 43% year-on-year. The sales revenue for the same period was approximately RMB 48.5 billion, reflecting a 39% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's breeding costs have improved significantly, with the complete cost per kilogram dropping to RMB 12.4 in April, down approximately RMB 0.7 from the beginning of the year. The target for the full year is set at RMB 12 per kilogram, with a clear path for further cost reduction [2][3]. - The company is advancing its internationalization strategy by submitting an application for H-share issuance, which is expected to enhance its global presence and investor relations. The company emphasizes sustainable cash dividends and plans to reduce its overall debt by around RMB 10 billion this year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Cost Management - The company has achieved a high growth rate in pig output, with a clear strategy for reducing breeding costs and enhancing the value of each pig through improved production techniques [2][3]. Internationalization and Investor Relations - The submission of the H-share issuance application marks a significant step in the company's global strategy, aiming to reshape its investment value and expand its global business footprint [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of RMB 19.73 billion, RMB 18.26 billion, and RMB 47.17 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is set at RMB 51.30, based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.3x for 2025 [4][6].