全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第167期) 上不希安期货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 65. 00 | 59.00 | 60.00 | 52. 48 | 53. 38 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | -2. 11% | -3.52% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -6. 00 | 1.00 | -7. 52 | 0. 90 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 59.16 | 58. 46 | | 单项竞价成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | 总成交量(万吨) | 0. 00 | 0.00 | 0. 00 | 27.75 | 331.78 | | 挂牌协议成交量 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 10. 19 | 94. 74 | 大宗协议成交量 237. 05 0.00 0. ...

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第166期) 310月底,随着履约压力逐步显现、强制流通配额释放接近尾声,上涨动能有望积 ,碳价可能进入趋势性回升阶段。 聚, 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择超额抛售变现;3、未 风险 考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转;4、CCER供应量剧增。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 65.00 | 59.00 | 60. 00 | 53. 61 | 55. 33 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | -4.06% | -1.02% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -6. 00 | 1.00 | -6. 39 | 1.72 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 59.77 | 58.77 | | 单项竞价成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/ ...

40 20 07-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 2025-09-24 2025-09-25 增减 涨跌幅 增减 -0. 34% 76.02 35. 47 2. 54 75. 76 0. 33 0. 00 现货成交量(手) 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 2025-09-24 2025-09-25 运费占比 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 -0. 33% 75. 36 -2877 75. 61 1313 17.66 1.68% 图表5: EUA期现价格及基差 图表6:12月合约持仓-李节性图 -2026 -- 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -期货价格 欧元/吨 == 基差(右轴) =- 现货价格 万手 50 100 www. would on and with 20 -50 04-01 07-01 10-01 01-01 01-1 2023-01 202 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 164, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: September 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price rebounds, with daily trading volume increasing by 16.5% compared to the previous day [5] - From September, key emission - control units will formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances, and carbon prices may face downward pressure. By the end of October, as compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [8] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of carbon price reversal may be seen as early as September [7] - It is recommended that enterprises with allowance gaps make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 4: Market Conditions Summary CEA Market - CEA24 shows weak and stable operation, while other targets show slight rebounds. The volume of listed allowances is 813,000 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 845,000 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 closes at 65.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 closes at 59.00 yuan/ton with a 5.36% increase; CEA22 closes at 60.00 yuan/ton with a 3.43% increase; CEA23 closes at 57.13 yuan/ton with a 2.62% increase; CEA24 closes at 57.65 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [10] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.00 tons; CEA21 is 0.00 tons; CEA22 is 18,500 tons; CEA23 is 646,100 tons; CEA24 is 993,100 tons [10] - The total trading amount of CEA19 - 20 is 58,991,100 yuan; CEA21 is 1,108,400 yuan; CEA22 is 41,935,500 yuan; CEA23 is 0.00 yuan; CEA24 is 60,000 yuan [11] CCER Market - The volume of listed agreement transactions of CCER is 139,800 tons, and the average transaction price is 78.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14%. The trading amount is 10,948,500 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 3,160,500 tons [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on developing a "three-dimensional virtual power plant" system to enhance operational efficiency and reliability while also pursuing carbon neutrality through various initiatives [2][3]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Xinhonggang Thermal Power Co., Ltd. was established on October 17, 1997, and listed on July 7, 2021. The company primarily engages in the production and supply of thermal and electric power through cogeneration [7]. - The main revenue composition includes 95.17% from cogeneration, 4.73% from energy storage, and 0.10% from other sources [7]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, the company had 20,400 shareholders, a decrease of 4.18% from the previous period, with an average of 19,622 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.37% [8]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 364 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 61.81 million yuan, down 4.62% year-on-year [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 344 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 204 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9]. Market Activity - On September 26, the company's stock rose by 0.69%, with a trading volume of 33.01 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.95%, bringing the total market capitalization to 3.493 billion yuan [1]. Investment Initiatives - The company plans to construct a "three-dimensional virtual power plant" system to monitor and enhance the efficiency of power plants using advanced technologies [2]. - The company aims to establish itself as a regional comprehensive energy supply center and carbon neutrality center, focusing on improving efficiency and reducing carbon emissions through new unit expansions and technological upgrades [2][3].

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the national carbon emissions trading market has a cumulative transaction volume of 696 million tons and a transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan, with the 2024 transaction value reaching a new annual high since the market's launch in 2021 [3] - The national carbon market, which started online trading on July 16, 2021, is the largest carbon market globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions coverage, initially including 2,162 enterprises in the power generation sector and covering a carbon quota of 4.5 billion tons [3] - Following the market's expansion in May, approximately 1,500 key emission units from the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries were added, increasing the total carbon emissions coverage to 8 billion tons, accounting for over 60% of the national total [3] Group 2 - The national carbon market has enhanced companies' awareness of low-carbon development, with significant improvements in carbon emission control capabilities [5] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that the carbon emission intensity of the national power sector decreased by 10.8% in 2024 compared to 2018 [5] - The trading scale of the national carbon market reached a historical high, with increased participation willingness from trading entities and a gradual enrichment of trading products and methods [5] Group 3 - The China Carbon Registration and Settlement System (referred to as "Zhong Carbon") is the core infrastructure of the national carbon market, responsible for registration, settlement, and clearing functions [3] - Zhong Carbon has completed 20 system upgrades and implemented quantum encryption technology to ensure data security, achieving nearly 1,000 billion yuan in cumulative clearing amounts with zero errors in settlements [4] - Baosteel Co., Ltd. has been active in carbon trading since 2013, successfully implementing 270 energy-saving projects from 2022 to 2024, resulting in a reduction of 2.59 million tons of carbon emissions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Xinhonggang Thermal Power Co., Ltd., is focusing on developing a "three-dimensional virtual power plant" system and aims to enhance its carbon neutrality efforts through various projects and technologies [2][3]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Xinhonggang Thermal Power Co., Ltd. was established on October 17, 1997, and listed on July 7, 2021. The company primarily engages in the production and supply of thermal and electric power through cogeneration, with 95.17% of its revenue coming from this segment [7]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, the company reported a decrease in revenue to 364 million yuan, down 17.74% year-on-year, and a net profit of 61.81 million yuan, down 4.62% year-on-year [8]. Market Activity - On September 24, the company's stock rose by 2.76%, with a trading volume of 50.71 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.43%, bringing the total market capitalization to 3.581 billion yuan [1]. Investment Projects - The company is planning to construct a "three-dimensional virtual power plant" to improve operational efficiency and safety through real-time data analysis and modeling [2]. - The company aims to establish a regional comprehensive energy supply center and carbon neutrality center, focusing on enhancing efficiency and reducing carbon emissions through new unit expansions and technological upgrades [2]. Carbon Emission Management - The company reported a total carbon emission quota of 2.6483 million tons for 2019 and 2020, with actual emissions of 2.1483 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 500,100 tons, which is 18.88% of the quota [2]. - The company has initiated measures to reduce carbon emissions, including the production line of RDF and the upcoming operation of a biomass fuel boiler renovation project [2]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, the number of shareholders decreased to 20,400, a reduction of 4.18%, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 4.37% to 19,622 shares [8].

Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 29.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.98% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.88% [1] - The company proposed a cash dividend distribution plan, paying 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for approximately 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The growth in the company's performance is supported by an increase in both volume and price of products, with aluminum product output reaching 1.6132 million tons, up 15.59% year-on-year [1] - The average price of aluminum (A00) in the first half of 2025 was 20,317.4 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [1] - The domestic alumina price decreased to 3,170 yuan per ton, down 44.7% from the beginning of the year, which positively impacted the company's performance [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 54.3549 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46%, and a 3.06% increase when excluding export products [2] - Key growth areas for aluminum consumption include new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning, while sectors like aluminum material net exports and construction are expected to be drag factors [2] - The integration of the electrolytic aluminum industry into the national carbon market is progressing, which may lead to increased costs for fire-powered aluminum production and promote energy-saving measures [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the rise in aluminum prices, the profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 at 6.19 billion yuan and 6.92 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.9% and 13.4% from previous estimates [3] - A new profit forecast for 2027 is set at 7.59 billion yuan, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times for the respective years [3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, considering the potential premium for green hydropower aluminum following its inclusion in the carbon trading market [3]

Economic Outlook - Hong Kong's GDP growth is projected to be between 2% and 3% for the year [3] Infrastructure Development - The construction of the Hung Hom Station and the Hong Kong North Station is progressing rapidly, with completion expected in 2027 and 2030 respectively [5] - The establishment of the "Northern Metropolis Development Committee" aims to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis [7] Financial Market Initiatives - Hong Kong will collaborate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to explore new businesses in bulk commodity trading and carbon trading [8] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is promoting the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the "Stock Connect" program [12] Industry Development - A budget of HKD 1 billion has been allocated to establish the "Hong Kong Artificial Intelligence Research Institute" next year [11] - The government is actively fostering emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and data science [11] - Plans are in place to attract more pharmaceutical companies to set up operations in Hong Kong [11]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong will collaborate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses in bulk commodity trading and carbon trading [1] Group 1: Collaboration and Market Development - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is the controlling shareholder of the Qianhai Joint Trading Center and will continue to strengthen cooperation between the two regions [1] - The development of an offshore soybean spot market is a key focus for HKEX [1] - HKEX's carbon market, Core Climate, will conduct research on cross-border trading settlement with pilot carbon markets in the Greater Bay Area [1]