新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 2026 年黑色商品年度策略报告 双焦 潮退方显岸礁固，火淬乃知真金存 让衍生品成为 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/12/26 中辉期货研究院 2026 年双焦市场预计将整体承压，呈现 "宽幅震荡、重心缓降" 的格局。核心逻辑在于需求确定性收缩与供应结构性支撑的持续博弈。 黑色研究团队 从基本面看，需求侧是主要制约。在"十五五"钢铁行业减量调整的 导向下，粗钢及铁水产量预计延续萎缩，对焦炭及上游焦煤的总需求增长 乏力。供应端则呈现分化：焦煤面临国内产量约束及进口煤中优质主焦煤 占比偏低的结构性矛盾，蒙煤长协成本构成关键底部支撑；而焦炭行业产 能整体仍处过剩状态，供应相对宽松，使得焦煤基本面预期略强于焦炭。 从估值与板块强弱看，双焦已处于历史低位。数据显示，焦煤价格近 三年价格分位数仅 12.5%，但库存分位数高达 81.1%，显示低价已反映高库 存压力。相比之下，铁矿价格分位数（45.3%）更高且库存创三年 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipping volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mill daily hot metal production [29].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot - converted prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian Blend are at a premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward, being bearish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract has changed from short to long, being bullish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Factors Affecting Iron Ore Bullish factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories have decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The downstream steel prices are rising and can bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. 3.2. Market Indicators - **Iron ore port spot prices**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 825 with a basis of 49; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to the futures price is 846 with a basis of 70, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore shipment volume**: Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventories**: Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and clearance volumes**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline [2]. - **Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not elaborated on in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be in a high - level shock state due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral to slightly positive situation considering factors such as basis, inventory, and market trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decline, and the arrival level this month has decreased. Overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and policies on crude steel production reduction are expected. The trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 848, with a basis of 48. The spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 866, with a basis of 66. Spot prices are at a premium to futures, showing a positive situation [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, showing a positive situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main iron ore contract has decreased, showing a positive situation [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and capacity - reduction plans, a high - level shock approach is expected [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: High hot metal production, reduced port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices leading to a stronger ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Negative factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 864, with a basis of 60, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventories, port inventories are 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The market price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand will decline, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Indicators - Iron ore port spot prices [8] - Iron ore futures - spot basis [13] - Iron ore import profit [16] - Iron ore shipping volume [19] - Iron ore port inventories and steel mill inventories [23] - Iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [28] - Iron ore daily consumption [31] - Steel enterprise production situation [33] - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy is expected to be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price on the disk is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level oscillation strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory is decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, indicating a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - **Iron ore port spot price**: The report mentions the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port for basis calculation but does not elaborate further [2]. - **Iron ore basis**: The basis of PB powder at Rizhao Port is 46, and that of Brazilian blend is 64, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: The report mentions import losses as a bullish factor but does not provide specific data [6]. - **Iron ore shipping volume**: Future shipping volume is expected to increase as a bearish factor [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventory**: Port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume**: The report mentions that the arrival level this month has decreased but does not provide specific data [2]. - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing [2]. - **Iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not mentioned in the report.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a reduction in this month's arrival volume. The port inventory is decreasing, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The trade war is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and technical aspects, the market is expected to be in a high - level shock. The domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan of capacity reduction impacts the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill's hot metal production starts to decrease, this month's arrival volume decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy, trade war eases; overall assessment is neutral [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 836, with a basis of 49; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 854, with a basis of 67. The spot is at a premium to the futures; assessment is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; assessment is neutral [2]. Technical Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; assessment is neutral [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, and the long position decreases; assessment is bullish [2]. Expectation - Domestic demand decreases, and the capacity reduction plan impacts the market. Adopt a high - level shock mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory decreases [6]. - Import incurs losses [6]. - The downstream steel price rises, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and trade tensions are easing. The domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan for capacity reduction impacts the market. It is recommended to adopt a high - level oscillation strategy. The comprehensive evaluation of various factors is as follows: - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decline, the arrival level this month decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and policies and trade situations are neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **Trading Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main iron ore contract increases, which is bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory decreases [6]. - Import incurs losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products rises, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipment volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Data Information The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore futures - spot basis [13], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipment volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventory [19], iron ore arrival and departure volume [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production situation [26], and iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mill daily hot metal production [29]. However, specific data summaries are not provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of iron ore shows that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports has decreased this month, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a bullish sign [2]. - Port inventories are 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamental situation: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival at ports is lower this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there will be crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, being neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 817 with a basis of 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to futures price is 833 with a basis of 56, showing spot premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, being bearish [2]. - Main position: The main iron ore position is net long and the long position is decreasing, being bullish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - Bearish factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6]. Other Catalogs - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [14], iron ore shipments [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [29].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. With domestic demand decreasing and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The analysis of various factors shows a mixed situation, with some factors being bullish and some bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production has started to decrease, and the arrival level this month has decreased. Overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there will be crude steel reduction policies in the market, while the trade war has eased. The situation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 831, with a basis of 27; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 846, with a basis of 41. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The situation is neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main iron ore contract has increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the capacity - reduction plan impacts the market. A high - level oscillation mindset is adopted [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - Import is at a loss [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - Other catalogs such as "Iron ore port spot price", "Iron ore futures - spot basis", "Iron ore import profit", "Iron ore shipping volume", "Iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory", "Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume", "Iron ore daily consumption", "Steel enterprise production situation", "Iron ore port daily average transaction and steel mill daily average hot metal" are listed, but no specific content for these catalogs is provided in the given text.