1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market trend has stabilized with individual price adjustments. The weekly production of soda ash is 818,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,900 tons or 1.11%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8538 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,900 tons or 4.03%. The delivery of enterprises has accelerated, and the inventory in some areas has decreased significantly. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises have decreased and are maintained at more than 13 days [1]. - Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises have recovered. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to decline from a high level this week, and the downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly this week, the start - up of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable this week. At the end of the export rush, the demand is gradually weakening, and the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry has repeatedly reached new highs. Under the background of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will still remain at a high level in the near future. The new production capacity will put pressure, and the fuel price at the cost side is relatively strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the changes in the start - up of soda ash. It is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate in the near future [1]. - Factors to be concerned about include changes in soda ash start - up, the progress of new production capacity release, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has stabilized, with individual price adjustments. The weekly production has increased, the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the pending orders have decreased [1]. - The profits of soda ash enterprises have recovered. The start - up is expected to decline, downstream demand is expected to be stable, the production of float glass is expected to decline slightly, and the start - up of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable. The demand for photovoltaic glass is weakening, and its inventory has reached new highs. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 3.2 This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Soda Ash Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change (%) | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 48 | - 27 | 75 | 277.8 | Weekly | | Enterprise Inventory | 10,000 tons | 185.38 | 193.17 | - 7.79 | - 4.0 | Weekly | | Weekly Production | 10,000 tons | 81.81 | 80.92 | 0.89 | 1.1 | Weekly | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method | Yuan/ton | 227.5 | 166 | 61.5 | 37.0 | Weekly | | Ammonia - alkali Method Profit | Yuan/ton | - 25.3 | - 26.2 | 0.9 | 3.4 | Weekly | | Downstream Float Glass Start - up Rate | % | 70.55 | 71.05 | - 0.5 | - 0.7 | Weekly | | Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Start - up Rate | % | 66.34 | 66.34 | 0 | 0 | Weekly | [2] 3.3 Position Analysis | Ranking | Member Abbreviation (Trading Volume) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Increase/Decrease | Member Abbreviation (Long Position) | Long Position Quantity | Increase/Decrease | Member Abbreviation (Short Position) | Short Position Quantity | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Guotai Junan (Client) | 193,499 | - 12,175 | CITIC Futures (Client) | 64,884 | 143 | Yong'an Futures (Client) | 138,403 | - 6,618 | | 2 | Orient Futures (Client) | 192,205 | - 15,448 | Orient Futures (Client) | 57,204 | 5,100 | Guotai Junan (Client) | 106,439 | - 3,180 | |... |... |... |... |... |... |... |... |... |... | | Total | | 1,397,154 | - 12,269 | | 821,131 | 12,586 | | 979,958 | 7,228 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous week, reaching 1,202 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,190 yuan/ton, a 5.18% drop from the previous week [3]. - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend as enterprise maintenance begins. Next week, the expected operating rate is 82%, and the output is over 780,000 tons. Market sentiment has weakened, new - price transactions are average, and production and sales are maintained. Downstream demand is average, mainly on a need - to - buy basis, with low - price restocking. Consumption is stable with little overall fluctuation and no obvious new additions. The downstream's intention to restock at the new price has weakened, and they are mainly consuming inventory. As of March 19, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8538 million tons, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period [3]. - In the short term, soda ash is more affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,277 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.87%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1,255 yuan/ton to 1,190 yuan/ton, a 5.18% decrease. The main basis decreased from - 22 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton, a decline of 45.45% [8]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,190 yuan/ton, a 5.18% decrease from the previous week [14]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 25.30 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 227.5 yuan/ton [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87%, and the weekly output is 818,100 tons, including 434,000 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high [20][22]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are planned new production capacities for soda ash. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [23]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 101.92% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 145,800 tons, and the operating rate is 70.41% [29]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash is 1.8538 million tons, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: There is little cold - repair of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased its operating load, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market showed a stable - to - strong trend with narrow price increases. Last week, the soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2200 tons or 0.27%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9317 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,500 tons or 0.80%. The number of pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased slightly to over 14 days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises have recovered. It is expected that the domestic soda ash production will remain stable at a high level this week, and the downstream demand will be relatively stable in the near term. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly this week, and the operation of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable this week. As the end of the export rush approaches, demand is gradually weakening, and the inventory in the photovoltaic glass industry has reached new highs. Against the backdrop of loose supply - demand for soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near term. With the pressure from new - capacity releases and the relatively high cost of fuel, the focus should be on changes in soda ash production. It is predicted that the price of soda ash will fluctuate slightly weaker in the near term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable - to - strong, with prices slightly increasing. The production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and pending orders of soda ash enterprises showed corresponding changes. The production was 809,200 tons, up 0.27% week - on - week; capacity utilization was 87%, up 0.23%; inventory was 1.9317 million tons, down 0.80%; and pending orders increased slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: Soda ash enterprise profits have recovered. This week, domestic soda ash production is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand will be relatively stable. Float glass production may decline slightly, and photovoltaic glass operation will be stable. Demand for photovoltaic glass is weakening, and its inventory is at a high level. Soda ash inventory will remain high, new - capacity releases will put pressure, and fuel costs are high. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [1]. 3.2 Factors to be Concerned About - Changes in soda ash production, new - capacity release progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week - **Periodic and Spot Market**: The basis (East China) was - 27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton or - 285.7% [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly production was 809,200 tons, up 0.22 tons or 0.3% week - on - week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87%, up 0.23%. The double - ton profit of the combined - alkali method was 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 168.5 yuan/ton or 6740%. The profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 26.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.45 yuan/ton or 68.3% [1][3]. - **Demand**: The downstream float glass operation rate was 71.05%, up 0.24 percentage points or 0.3% week - on - week. The downstream photovoltaic glass operation rate was 66.34%, up 0.41 percentage points or 0.6% week - on - week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9317 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,500 tons or 0.80% [1][3]. - **Position Analysis**: The total trading volume of soda ash was 1,851,488 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1,060,509 lots. The total long - position holding was 807,257 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots. The total short - position holding was 941,279 lots, a decrease of 2827 lots [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 increased by 2.82% compared to the previous week, reaching 1,277 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week. The conflict between the US and Iran continued to escalate, and the bullish sentiment in the market persisted. In terms of supply, there were few maintenance operations in soda ash enterprises recently, with high operating rates and high - level overall supply. The expected output next week is 810,000 tons, and the operating rate is 87%. On the demand side, the spot and futures purchase volume increased significantly recently, the overall downstream consumption remained stable, there was no obvious new production capacity, and the pressure on finished products and funds continued. The daily melting volume of float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 150 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons. As of March 12, the inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history. In general, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict boosted the sentiment of the overall commodities, and the soda ash is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View - The soda ash futures fluctuated upward last week, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.82% higher than the previous week at 1,277 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week. The US - Iran conflict led to continued bullish sentiment. Supply was at a high level, with expected next - week output of 810,000 tons and an operating rate of 87%. Demand saw increased purchase volume, stable downstream consumption, no new capacity, and continued pressure on finished products and funds. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 150 tons to 146,900 tons, while photovoltaic glass increased by 1,600 tons to 89,400 tons. Factory inventory decreased by 0.80% to 1.9317 million tons, at a historical high for the same period. Short - term soda ash is expected to fluctuate upward [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to be beneficial**: Downstream float glass has few cold repairs, and the output remains stable [5]. - **Likely to be negative**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased its operating load, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6][7]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,242 | 1,220 | - 22 | | Current Value | 1,277 | 1,255 | - 22 | | Change Rate | 2.82% | 2.87% | 0.00% | [8] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week [14]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [17]. 3.6 Soda Ash Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87% [20]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [22]. 3.7 Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including Anhui Hongsifang (200,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (400,000 tons in the first - phase 1, 2, 3 lines and 1 million tons in other phases), Henan Lingshan (2 million tons in the fifth phase), and Chongqing Xiangyu (200,000 tons). - In 2024, the total new production capacity was 1.8 million tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (1 million tons in the first - phase 4 line), Henan Jinshan (500,000 tons in the sixth phase), and Henan Zhongda (300,000 tons). - In 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang (600,000 tons), Lianyungang Jianye (1.1 million tons), Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II (400,000 tons), Hubei Xindu (600,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (2.8 million tons in the second phase), and Henan Jinshan (2 million tons in the seventh phase) [23]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [26]. - **Soda Ash Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the operating rate is 71.05% [29]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No specific data provided in the given text. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3032 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish due to the high production of alkali plants, expected ample supply, declining daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass, and high inventory at soda ash plants [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - The inventory of soda ash plants is above the 5 - year average, although it decreased by 0.80% compared to the previous week, still bearish [2][30]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly due to cost - side support [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1256 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.08%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1230 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.65%. The main basis is - 26 yuan/ton, with a change of - 42.22% [5]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash Production - The production profit of heavy soda ash is at a historical low, with a profit of - 154.65 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 70.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.04%, and the weekly output is 80.70 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 43.23 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [22]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.85 tons, and the operating rate is 70.81% [25]. Inventory Analysis - The inventory of national soda ash plants is 193.17 tons, a decrease of 0.80% compared to the previous week, and it is above the 5 - year average [30]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate from 2017 to 2024E [31]. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be bullish**: Less cold - repair of downstream float glass and stable production; The conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The production load of the second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the production is expected to remain at a high level; The production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - **Main logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Thread Steel**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, overall steel supply and demand are relatively loose, and weak reality exerts pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory levels are high, supply and demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market will continue to suppress the market in the medium term, and there is some pressure on supply and demand, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories have accumulated, steel mills are consuming inventory and purchasing on demand, supply has decreased this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The negotiation on iron ore between China and Australia has escalated, which has pushed up ore prices in the short term. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may put emotional pressure on the market, so operate with caution [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Except for some coking enterprises in Hebei that have limited production, the operation in other regions has remained stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills' blast furnaces limited production, molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production intensively, and the average daily output of mines has continued to increase month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][16][17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The operating rate in the production area remains low, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. The quotes of some mainstream manganese mines in April continue to rise, providing strong support for the cost side. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has been launched one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation, production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, the current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, the daily melting volume is 148,500 tons, and in the face of weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventory. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash lacks support. The rise in energy prices has led to an overall increase in costs, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Thread Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices of thread steel futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,174, 3,119, and 3,147 respectively, with price increases of 33, 31, and 32 respectively. The latest prices of spot thread steel in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,100, 3,220, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 40 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of thread steel 01 in Shanghai is 46, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of thread steel 05 in Shanghai is 101, with a decrease of 1; the latest basis of thread steel 10 in Shanghai is 73, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of RB 10 - 01, RB 01 - 05, and RB 05 - 10 are -27, 55, and -28 respectively, with changes of -1, 2, and -1 respectively [2]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: The latest prices of hot rolled coil futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,291, 3,270, and 3,282 respectively, with price increases of 28, 40, and 38 respectively. The latest prices of spot hot rolled coil in different regions such as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,180, 3,260, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 50 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of hot rolled coil 01 in Shanghai is -31, with an increase of 2; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 05 in Shanghai is -10, with a decrease of 10; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 10 in Shanghai is -22, with a decrease of 8. The latest spreads of HC 10 - 01, HC 01 - 05, and HC 05 - 10 are -9, 21, and -12 respectively, with changes of 10, -12, and 2 respectively [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 741, 785, and 758 respectively, with price increases of 12, 13, and 12 respectively. The latest prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder are 773, 751, and 798 respectively, with price increases of 9, 11, and 0 respectively [6]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of PB powder for 01 is 83, with a decrease of 2; the latest basis of PB powder for 05 is 40, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of PB powder for 09 is 66, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of i 01 - 05, i 05 - 09, and i 09 - 01 are -44, 27, and 17 respectively, with changes of -13, 1, and 12 respectively [6]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,906.0, 1,740.0, and 1,803.5 respectively, with price increases of 50.5, 44.5, and 41.5 respectively. The latest prices of spot coke in different regions such as Lvliang, Rizhao, and Handan are 1,230, 1,470, and 1,370 respectively, with no price changes [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 74.0%, a decrease of 0.4%; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 110.3 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.3 tons, a decrease of 3.9 tons; the inventory available days are 12.5 days, an increase of 0.1 day; the port coke inventory is 203.1 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons; the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is 17.0 yuan, an increase of 24.0 yuan [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,468.0, 1,168.0, and 1,251.5 respectively, with price increases of 42.0, 45.0, and 35.0 respectively. The latest prices of spot coking coal in different regions such as Lvliang, Gujiao, and Meng 5 are 1,310, 1,230, and 1,175 respectively, with no price changes [15]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coal washing plants is 26.6%, an increase of 3.8%; the daily average clean coal output of sample coal washing plants is 19.9 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons; the coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 796.2 tons, a decrease of 33.3 tons; the inventory available days are 11.9 days, a decrease of 0.4 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 775.6 tons, a decrease of 16.8 tons; the inventory available days are 12.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the total port coking coal inventory is 267.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons [15]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5,960, 5,868, and 5,940 respectively, with price increases of 58, 0, and 22 respectively. The latest prices of silicomanganese futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 6,248, 6,132, and 6,184 respectively, with price increases of 26, 2, and 6 respectively. The latest prices of spot ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions have different price changes [18]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08%; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 26.55%, a decrease of 1.77%; the output of 187 silicomanganese enterprises is 195,860 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons; the inventory of 63 silicomanganese enterprises is 387,300 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 66,280 tons, a decrease of 4,120 tons [18]. Glass - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 are 1,280, 1,104, and 1,211 respectively, with price increases of 25, 17, and 17 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 368, an increase of 213.1; the main contract's open interest is 117, a decrease of 9.1 [22]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of glass in different regions such as Hubei, China, and East China are 1,090, 1,137, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The daily melting volume is 146,900 tons, a decrease of 0.16 tons; the inventory is 7,601 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 2,066 ten - thousand weight boxes [22]. Soda Ash - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 are 1,358, 1,276, and 1,330 respectively, with price increases of 26, 34, and 31 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 373, an increase of 233.8; the main contract's open interest is 109, a decrease of 5.9 [26]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, East China, and Central China are 1,260, 1,230, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The operating rate is 0.0%, a decrease of 86.82%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 146,925 tons; the enterprise inventory is 189.4 tons, an increase of 30.64 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Iron ore, ferromanganese, ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, and the overall supply and demand of steel are relatively loose. The high supply of raw materials and weak reality exert pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, the absolute inventory level is high, supply and demand changes conform to seasonal characteristics, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market still suppresses the market in the medium term, and there is certain pressure on supply and demand. However, the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories are accumulating, steel mills are consuming inventories and purchasing on demand. Supply has shrunk this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The escalation of iron ore negotiations between China and Australia has pushed up ore prices periodically. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may exert emotional pressure on the market, so cautious operation is required [1][8] - **Coke**: Except for some coke enterprises in Hebei being restricted in production, the operation in other regions remains stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills restricted blast furnace production, and molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term. Steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventories is insufficient. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is required [1][12] - **Coking coal**: Domestic coal mines are resuming production intensively, and the daily output of mines continues to rise month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventories is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand tend to be loose, the short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, and cautious operation is required [1][16] - **Ferromanganese**: The production area's operating rate remains at a low level, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventories have decreased month-on-month. Some mainstream manganese mines' quotes for April continue to rise, and the cost side provides strong support. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to a certain extent [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventories have decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders is starting one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to a certain extent [1][19][20] - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation. Production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a daily melting volume of 148,500 tons. Under weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventories. The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23] - **Soda ash**: The in-plant inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, with insufficient support for heavy soda demand. The rise in energy prices has driven up the overall cost, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the latest price of rebar 01 is 3,174 with a rise of 33, and the latest price of hot-rolled coil 01 is 3,291 with a rise of 28 [2] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Rebar demand is weak, and molten iron production is high, resulting in relatively loose supply and demand. Hot-rolled coil production and demand are stable, and inventory is high [1][4] - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the conflict between the US and Iran and weak reality, the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices have increased, and spot prices and related indexes have also changed. For example, the latest price of iron ore 01 is 741 with a rise of 12, and the latest price of PB powder is 773 [6] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Molten iron production is expected to rebound, port inventories are accumulating, and supply has shrunk this period, with improved fundamentals [1][8] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, but the sharp decline in the crude oil sector may bring emotional pressure [1][8][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices have increased, and spot prices are relatively stable. For example, the latest price of the coke 1-month contract is 1,906.0 with a rise of 50.5 [11] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Supply is relatively stable except for some restrictions in Hebei, and demand has decreased due to blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, with insufficient inventory replenishment willingness [1][12] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][12][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices have increased, and spot prices are mostly stable. For example, the latest price of the coking coal 1-month contract is 1,468.0 with a rise of 42.0 [15] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing due to concentrated resumption of production in domestic coal mines, and demand has decreased due to the decline in molten iron production, with overall loose supply and demand [1][16] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][16][17] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase. For example, the latest price of ferromanganese 01 is 6,248 with a rise of 26, and the latest price of ferrosilicon 01 is 5,960 with a rise of 58 [18] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Ferromanganese production area's operating rate is low, demand is increasing, and inventories are decreasing. Ferrosilicon supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventories are decreasing [1][19] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, with support from fundamentals and low valuation despite volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][19][20] 3.6 Glass - **Price Information**: Glass futures prices have increased, and spot prices are relatively stable. For example, the latest price of FG01 is 1,280 with a rise of 25 [22] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and a need for further supply reduction [1][23] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with the market affected by crude oil price fluctuations [1][23][24] 3.7 Soda Ash - **Price Information**: Soda ash futures prices have increased, and spot prices have different degrees of increase. For example, the latest price of SA01 is 1,358 with a rise of 26 [26] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Inventories are at a record high, production is at a neutral level, and demand is weak [1][27] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with short-term fluctuations due to rising energy costs [1][27][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The second - phase start - up load of Yuanxing Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,276 yuan/ton, the basis is - 26 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [3] - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3] - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [3] 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Likely factors**: Less cold repair of downstream float glass, stable output; the conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment of the market [5] - **Negative factors**: The start - up load of the second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, and the output is expected to remain at a high level; the production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | Heavy soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | Main basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,242 | 1,220 | - 22 | | Current value | 1,276 | 1,250 | - 26 | | Increase/decrease | 2.74% | 2.46% | 18.18% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 5. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 70.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15] 6. Soda Ash Start - up Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash is 807,000 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 432,300 tons, and the output is at a historical high [20] 7. Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - **2023**: The total new production capacity is 6.4 million tons, including Anhui Hongsifang (200,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (400,000 tons in the first - phase 1, 2, 3 lines and 1 million tons), Henan Lingshan (2 million tons in the fifth - phase), and Chongqing Xiangyu (200,000 tons) [21] - **2024**: The total new production capacity is 1.8 million tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (1 million tons in the first - phase 4 line), Henan Jinshan (500,000 tons in the sixth - phase), and Henan Zhongda (300,000 tons) [21] - **2025**: The planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang (600,000 tons), Lianyungang Alkali (1.1 million tons), Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II (400,000 tons), Hubei Xindu (600,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (2.8 million tons in the second - phase), and Henan Jinshan (2 million tons in the seventh - phase) [21] 8. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales Rate**: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 61.12% [24] - **Downstream Demand of Soda Ash**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.81% [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Not provided in detail, but there is a situation of production reduction and weakening demand for soda ash [5] 9. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32] 10. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Start - up Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch pattern between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The second - phase production load of Yuanying Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,205 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,225 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 20 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing; bearish [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely Positive Factors**: The cold repair of downstream float glass is less, and the output remains stable. The conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The production load of the second - phase production line of Yuanying Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, and the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,203 | 1,160 | - 43 | | Current Value | 1,225 | 1,205 | - 20 | | Change Rate | 1.83% | 3.88% | - 53.49% | [5] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,205 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 5. Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production method is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04%. The weekly output of soda ash is 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 61.12% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the operating rate is 70.61% [26]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [32]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 increased by 3.83% compared to the previous week, reaching 1194 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, up 3.60% from the previous week [2]. - In terms of supply, some soda ash enterprises resumed from maintenance. It is expected that the output will increase to 800,000 tons next week, with a capacity utilization rate of 86%, and the overall supply is abundant. On the demand side, the downstream demand recovered after the festival, but the procurement enthusiasm was poor, maintaining just - in - time low - price replenishment. The consumption was moderately weak. The daily melting volume of float glass was 148,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1600 tons [2]. - As of February 27, the inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 1.8944 million tons, a 19.29% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Overall, the conflict between the US and Iran may boost the sentiment of the overall commodities. The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected that soda ash will be driven to rise in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1150 yuan/ton to 1194 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.83%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1110 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.60%. The main basis increased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.00% [7]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1150 yuan/ton, a 3.60% increase from the previous week [13]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 162.25 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash was at a historical low [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 85.04%. The weekly output of soda ash was 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were plans for new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 61.12% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 148,600 tons, and the operating rate was 70.61% [28]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 1.8944 million tons, a 19.29% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: There was less cold - repair of downstream float glass, and the output remained stable [4]. - **Negative factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the terminal demand declined, the inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry had not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy increased its operating load, and there was no expectation of new maintenance, so the output was expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash reduced production, and the demand for soda ash weakened [5][6].