ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 LL - 500 - 12 - 12 / E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要 市 市 官 方 网 站 lle 打 线 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/11/19 总结 2数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年11月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5408 | -1.21% | -1.39% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5550 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2512 | 4872 | -0.53% | 0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5400 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5410 | - ...

2数据 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 == [本张音中的赠慧助源于公开可获得做资料，国贸湖货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的推确性及完整性枚任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资套议。也未针对个别投资者提熟的投资目标， 務状况或需要、投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资、责任自负。本报告仅向陈定客户推进。未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 2025/11/18 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 总结 纸浆价格数据 y 湖 | | | 2025年11月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5474 | -0.11% | 0.11% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5550 | 0. 00% | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on the Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, SP2601 was 5484 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 3.71%; SP2511 was 4888 with a daily increase of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; SP2605 was 5468 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 2.86% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian Needle was 5400 with a daily and weekly increase of 5.88%; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4380 with a daily and weekly increase of 3.06% [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Japanese Xihui was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5] - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged from the previous period [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5] - **Demand**: In November 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 11, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 512 with a quantile level of 0.953; the Silver Star basis was 662 with a quantile level of 0.889 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.593; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 36 with a quantile level of 0.681 [5] Market Situation Analysis - **Supply - Side**: In October, Chile's Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand - Side**: White cardboard has seen a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters recently, but whether the price increases can be implemented remains to be observed. Overall demand is still weak [10] - **Inventory - Side**: As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained. [6][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On November 3, 2025, among the futures prices, SP2601 was 5306 with a daily increase of 1.80% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2511 was 4890 with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 0.78%; SP2605 was 5346 with a daily increase of 1.63% and a weekly increase of 0.91%. [6] - Among the spot prices, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, Russian softwood pulp was 5100, and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, all with no daily or weekly changes. [6] - In the foreign market quotes (in dollars), the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged month - on - month. [6] - In terms of import costs, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month. [6] Fundamental Data - In terms of imports, in September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.10 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp was 135.60 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month. [6] - Regarding domestic production, on October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.7 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 million tons. [6] - For inventory, on October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 million tons. [6] - In terms of demand, on October 30, 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 20.60 million tons, coated paper was 8.60 million tons, tissue paper was 28.39 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 million tons. [6] Valuation Data - On November 3, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 210 with a quantile level of 0.9, and the basis of Silver Star was 610 with a quantile level of 0.866. [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557. [6] Supply - demand - inventory Situation - Supply: Chilean Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star price in October was 680 dollars per ton, down 20 dollars per ton; hardwood pulp Star was 540 dollars per ton, unchanged; and chemimechanical pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, unchanged. [6][11] - Demand: White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but it remains to be seen whether the price increases can be implemented. Overall demand is still weak. [11] - Inventory: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a narrow - range inventory accumulation compared with the previous period. [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not significantly improved, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced according to the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5224, down 0.34% day - on - day and 0.50% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4846, up 0.21% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5264, down 0.23% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5100, unchanged; and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; and the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; and the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [11]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, and paper prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11]. 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 254, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 654, with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 domestic needle pulp, and the futures price may be priced based on the Russian needle pulp and high - quality coniferous pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On October 28, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5226, 4828, and 5270 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 0.61%, - 0.17%, and - 0.53%, and week - on - week changes of 1.08%, - 0.62%, and 0.84% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp silver star, Russian needle, and broad - leaf pulp Jinge were 2500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes: The quotes of Chilean silver star, Japanese golden, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.86%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5] - Import costs: The import costs of Brazilian goldfish and Chilean Venus were 4344 and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 3.87% and 0.00% [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volumes of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp were 69.1 and 135.6 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of 12.54% and 7.79% [5] - The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, with a 4.50% increase [5] - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp in different weeks from August 28 to October 23, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [5] Inventory Data - As of October 23, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 205.5 tons, with a 0.9% decrease compared to the previous period, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [5][10] - The inventory in the futures delivery warehouse also showed a certain change trend from August 28 to October 23, 2025 [5] Demand - Side Data - The production volumes of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from August 28 to October 23, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [5] Valuation Data - On October 28, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 272 with a quantile level of 0.917, and the silver star pulp basis was 672 with a quantile level of 0.892 [5] - The import profits of coniferous pulp silver star and broad - leaf pulp goldfish were - 59 and - 94 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.512 and 0.556 [5] Market Situation - On the supply side, Chile's Arauco company's October coniferous pulp silver star offer was 680 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton; the broad - leaf pulp star offer was 540 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged [5] - On the demand side, the current demand for paper products is basically stable, the paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [10]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5258 with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly increase of 1.98%; SP2511 was 4836 with a daily decrease of 0.33% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; SP2605 was 5298 with a daily increase of 0.38% and a weekly increase of 1.65% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 27, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian needle pulp was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In October 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, a 2.86% decrease from the previous period; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars/ton, a 3.92% increase; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a 3.87% increase from the previous period; Chilean Silver Star was 5559, a 2.83% decrease; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162, a 4.50% increase [6] - **Production**: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations from August 28 to October 23, 2025 [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 205.5 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.6 tons [6][11] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations from August 28 to October 23, 2025 [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 27, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 264 with a quantile level of 0.913; the basis of Silver Star was 664 with a quantile level of 0.89 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 27, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.556 [6] Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Chilean Arauco's October softwood pulp quote decreased by 20 dollars/ton to 680 dollars/ton, and the hardwood pulp Star quote remained at 540 dollars/ton. The quote of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6][11] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products has remained basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11] - **Inventory - side**: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China showed a narrow - range destocking trend [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 contract. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp. The 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 13, 2025, SP2601 was 5158, up 1.58% day - on - day and down 2.16% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4842, up 1.13% day - on - day and down 3.47% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5228, up 1.79% day - on - day and down 1.28% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On October 13, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, down 0.36% day - on - day and down 1.79% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5000, down 0.99% day - on - day and down 2.91% week - on - week; hardwood pulp was 4250, with no change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, with no change [5] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, with no change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp in September 2025 was 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 3.7% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: In September 2025, the production of offset paper was 21.00 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.07 tons, and white cardboard was 35.90 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 13, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 158, with a quantile level of 0.877; the basis of Silver Star was 658, with a quantile level of 0.886 [5] - **Import Profit**: On October 13, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.284; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market are persistently weak, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate to find a bottom. The pulp market showed limited changes in the third quarter, and it is predicted that there will also be a lack of variables in the fourth quarter. The weak fundamental state of pulp is difficult to improve [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, pulp prices continued to oscillate, and port wood pulp inventories were higher than the same period in previous years. The overall pulp market was weak. In July, the anti - involution wave drove up commodities, causing pulp prices to rise, but they fell back to low levels as the wave receded [3][4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - From January to August, the cumulative imports of softwood pulp were 5.743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The cumulative imports of hardwood pulp were 11.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. Due to the continuous capacity expansion of hardwood pulp at home and abroad in the past two years, its supply - demand situation has deteriorated more significantly than that of softwood pulp. The needle - broad price difference has remained high and has recently seen a slight correction [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side - This year, the downstream paper - making industry has remained in a state of poor profits. The production profits of offset paper and coated paper declined significantly in the third quarter, highlighting weak terminal demand. The profits of white cardboard and household paper continued to remain at low levels. The low - profit situation has led to generally low operating rates in the paper - making industry, and the demand for pulp is weak. Although the operating rate of coated paper has increased to some extent due to less new capacity expansion, it is still difficult to change the overall weak demand for pulp [15][21]. 4. Price Trend Analysis - Currently, there are no bright spots on the demand side of pulp, and there are no signs of supply contraction. The fundamentals are continuously weak, so there is no upward driving force for prices. However, the current futures price is close to the cost of high - cost overseas pulp mills. Further price declines may stimulate domestic speculative replenishment demand, which will support pulp prices. Also, the exchange has temporarily excluded Russian softwood pulp from the delivery scope, reducing the low - cost warehouse receipts available for delivery in contracts after January, which also provides some support for the market [22].