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需求边际改善但持续性存疑 纸浆期货承压运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-24 23:40
截至2025年8月22日当周,纸浆期货主力合约收于5108元/吨,周K线收阴,持仓量环比上周增持27907 手。 本周(8月18日-8月22日)市场上看,纸浆期货周内开盘报5316元/吨,最高触及5316元/吨,最低下探至 5076元/吨,周度涨跌幅达-3.33%。 消息面回顾: 截止2025年8月21日,中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量为213.2万吨,较上期累库3.3万吨,环比上涨 1.6%,库存量在本周期呈现累库的走势。 8月21日,上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单233798吨,环比上个交易日减少601吨;纸浆厂库期货仓单18240 吨,环比上个交易日持平。 智利Arauco公司公布新一轮8月木浆外盘报价:针叶浆银星720美元/吨;本色浆金星590美元/吨;阔叶浆 明星520美元/吨,整体较6月报价持稳。 机构观点汇总: 建信期货:整体仍未摆脱需求淡季氛围,纸厂加工利润未有明显好转。有待基本面进一步改善,纸浆承 压运行。 西南期货:供应收缩预期主导情绪。国际浆厂主动减产,Suzano、Bracell等巨头宣布减产或转产,叠加 外盘报价提涨20美元/吨,成本支撑增强,理论上支撑当下阶段的纸浆市场走势。但需求边际改善但持 ...
能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:14
1. Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week's pulp outlook is slightly bullish. International pulp mills' production cuts and product conversions support the current pulp prices from falling, and the increase in foreign market prices further boosts market sentiment. However, the demand market is currently slow to follow up. Whether pulp prices can continue to rise or surge significantly depends on the shipment status and production fluctuations in the demand-side base paper market. Additionally, macro - policy stimuli can also affect the price fluctuations of pulp futures. It is recommended to monitor port inventory levels and base paper demand [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 10.5%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.375 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.7%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 18.0%. The total inventory of major sample ports was 2.099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 2.5% [6]. - Brazil's Suzano announced a reduction of nearly 500,000 tons in commodity pulp production over the next 12 months, equivalent to about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of hardwood pulp [6]. - China's pulp imports in July 2025 were 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The cumulative imports for the year were 21.455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5% [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the basis for coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 544 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% but a year - on - year increase of 29.52%. The basis for Russian Needle was - 6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 110.34% and a year - on - year increase of 80.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.70% and a year - on - year increase of 22.22% [12]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.84%. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36.36% [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp decreased. As of August 15, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% but a year - on - year increase of 57.14%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 83.33% [24]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp improved. As of August 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 36.74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year increase of 81.82%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was 87.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 769.10% and a year - on - year increase of 123.39% [28]. - The price of coniferous pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Russian Needle increased by 1.53% month - on - month [29]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Birdie, and Broadleaf were 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,150 yuan/ton, and 4,150 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases ranging from 2.44% to 2.94% [36]. - The price of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged month - on - month [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - In June 2025, European port pulp inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while global pulp shipments in May increased month - on - month [41]. - In June 2025, the performance of pulp imports continued to diverge. Coniferous pulp imports decreased by 6.07% month - on - month, while broad - leaf pulp imports increased by 10.96% month - on - month [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of some finished paper products showed an upward trend. As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.58%, 63.50%, 56.27%, and 57.18% respectively [49]. - The prices of finished paper products were generally weak. As of August 15, 2025, the average prices of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees month - on - month [50]. - The profits of finished paper products weakened [61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 235,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory warehouse) was 19,200 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 42.05% [66]. - Overall, port inventory was at a medium level for the year, and the inventory of major domestic ports showed an upward trend this period. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased, while Changshu Port's inventory increased [71].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
行业 纸浆日报 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 021-60635727 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635738 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(P ...
建信期货纸浆日报-20250715
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:24
1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures contract 09 was 5,228 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,244 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [7]. - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,070 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,920 - 5,950 yuan/ton [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Chile's Arauco announced its July offer. Yinxing had completed transactions with no new offers, and the net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp New Star was $500/ton [8]. - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in May decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year - on - year [8]. - According to Europulp data, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports in May increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year [8]. - China's pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, a 0.5% increase month - on - month and a 16.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.45% month - on - month, with only the inventory at Gaolan Port decreasing compared to the previous week. The overall shipment speed was stable [8]. - Downstream terminal orders were insufficient, and the prices of base paper were generally stable with some individual declines [8]. Operation Suggestions - The absolute price of pulp is currently at a relatively low level. The downside space due to weak fundamentals is limited, and a new round of upward movement depends on the improvement of terminal demand and the restoration of industry profits. In the short term, it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation at a low level [8]. 3. Industry News - On July 11, the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp (CTMP) project's Line 2 of Liansheng Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation. It took only 4 hours and 8 minutes to connect the entire system from feeding, and after 20 hours of system optimization after startup, the quality of the main pulp reached the requirements of the paper machine production line. The CTMP from Line 2 has been used in the PM1 white cardboard production line of Zhangpu Base [9]. - The successful commissioning of Line 2 of the second - phase CTMP project not only marks another major progress in Liansheng Pulp and Paper's Zhangpu Base's annual production of 3.9 million tons of forest - pulp - paper integration but also further strengthens the company's flexible self - supply capacity of raw materials [9]. - In the Zhangpu Base project with an annual output of 3.9 million tons, Valmet supplied a BCTMP production line, including various pulping process technologies such as wood chip washing, pre - impregnation systems, high - consistency refining, low - consistency refining, bleaching, high - consistency screening systems, and twin - roll washers, as well as engineering, procurement, on - site management (EPS), training, on - site services, and related spare parts [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][15][17][19][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250708
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:27
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5074 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.91% [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco's June Quotes: Yinxing was 740 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous quote [7] - Supply - side Data: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in May were 302 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [7] - Inventory Data: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, with only Qingdao Port's inventory decreasing compared to the previous week, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Downstream Market: The market orders of downstream paper mills had no obvious improvement, and the prices of finished paper remained stable. Currently, the port de - stocking speed was slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market was relatively loose, and it was oscillating in the low - level range [7] Group 3: Industry News - On July 4, Finland's Stora Enso announced that its Kemi pulp mill and the adjacent paper mill would resume production after weeks of maintenance and repair. Production would resume in stages, and the factory startup would take about two days. During the five - week annual maintenance shutdown, its subsidiary changed the digester damaged in the explosion in March 2024. The new Kemi pulp mill, put into use in Q4 2023, had the world's largest softwood pulp production line, with an annual production capacity of about 1.5 million tons, including about 1.1 million tons of market pulp [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including pulp spot and futures prices, price spreads, warehouse receipts, and inventory in different regions [14][16][18][25][27][29]
纸浆周报:需求制约,盘面低位震荡-20250706
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 02:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:39
Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - SP2509 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5044 yuan/ton, closing price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7] - SP2601 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5230 yuan/ton, closing price was 5284 yuan/ton, up 1.03% [7] - SP2605 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5178 yuan/ton, closing price was 5234 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: Coniferous pulp intended transaction price range was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low-end price stable compared to the previous trading day. Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] Operation Suggestions - Supply side: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp-producing countries decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year-on-year. European port wood pulp inventory in May increased by 13.3% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. As of June 26, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.49% month-on-month [8] - Demand side: Downstream paper mills' raw material procurement mentality remained cautious, mainly replenishing inventory at low levels for rigid demand [8] - Market outlook: The current port de-stocking speed is slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the expectation of new domestic production capacity, the improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and it will operate in a low-range oscillation [8] Group 3: Industry News - On July 2, Xianhe Co., Ltd. announced an overseas investment. On June 30, 2025, the company signed an investment agreement with the People's Government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp and paper integrated high-performance paper-based new material project. The total investment is expected to be about 11 billion yuan to build an 800,000-ton bamboo pulp and 1.2 million-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The project is planned in stages. The first phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The second phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line, corresponding supporting projects, and a bamboo forest base [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures-spot price difference, needle-broadleaf price difference, inter-period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, white cardboard and whiteboard price and price difference, copperplate paper and offset paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250620
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:07
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,254 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,220 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6,100 yuan/ton [7]. - International Quotes: Chile's Arauco announced its June quotes. Yinxing was at $740/ton, and Jinxing was at $620/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Supply Data: According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4%. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of June 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.7% month - on - month, and the inventory in major ports increased compared to the previous week, with a moderate overall shipment speed [7]. - Market Outlook: Downstream paper mills mainly consume their previous raw material inventories, with insufficient short - term pulp - purchasing enthusiasm. The new round of import pulp quotes is stable, the pulp market supply at home and abroad is loose, the port de - stocking speed is still slow, downstream paper mills continue to optimize the raw material cost structure, and the competition between domestic and imported pulp intensifies. Pulp prices fluctuate widely in a low - level range [7]. Group 3: Industry News - New Project in Xinjiang: On June 19, a new project with a total investment of 110 million yuan and an annual output of 1,000 tons of aramid paper new materials, introduced by the Huai'an Working Group of Jiangsu Aid to Yili, was officially signed and settled in the 7th Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps [8]. - Project Adjustment in Hubei: On June 13, Hubei Xianhe's special pulp and paper project with a total investment of 4.39 billion yuan had a key shift in its "core". The production of traditional cultural paper was significantly reduced, and the proportion of high - value - added special paper production capacity increased significantly. The production capacity of special food cardboard increased by 300,000 tons, the production capacity of release base paper increased from 25,000 tons to 50,000 tons, and the thermal base paper's structure focused more on high - end applications [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Chart 1 - 6 shows various data of pulp, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference in Shandong, and inter - period price differences [14][16][18] - Chart 7 - 12 shows data such as the total amount of warehouse receipts, pulp inventory in domestic main ports, wood pulp inventory in European main ports, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [25][27][29]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250610
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:21
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated June 10, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The paper pulp market shows that the new round of imported pulp quotes remains stable, the port de - stocking speed is still slow, the implementation effect of downstream price increase letters is average, and the shutdown of a 690,000 - ton coniferous pulp mill in Finland due to poor orders boosts the market trend, with the pulp rebounding in a wide range [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The pre - settlement price of the 09 contract of pulp futures was 5,226 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,290 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.22%. For SP2601, the increase was 0.91%, and for SP2605, it was 0.19% [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,280 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 - 6,170 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - related Data**: Chile's Arauco announced its June quotes, with Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4%. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of June 5, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.6% month - on - month [8] - **Downstream Market**: The downstream market has a clear demand for improved profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders is limited, and the raw material procurement mentality is cautious [8] 2. Industry News - On June 9, in Xingning, Meizhou, Guangdong, 33 key industrial projects were signed, started, and completed in the first half of 2025, with a total planned investment of 7.087 billion yuan. After reaching production capacity, the expected annual output value is 8.857 billion yuan, and the annual tax is 376 million yuan. Among them, there are 3 packaging projects with different planned investments, trial - production times, expected annual output values, and annual taxes [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cross - period spreads, import floating needle pulp spot prices, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures spreads, needle - broadleaf spreads, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and spreads of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, copperplate paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][15][17][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250530
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:23
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The pulp market has macro disturbances as the US International Trade Court blocked the April 2 tariff decision and the Trump administration appealed. New import pulp offers are mostly down, port inventory reduction is slow, and the implementation of price increase notices by downstream paper mills is generally ineffective. After the macro pressure weakens, pulp tries to fill the gap, but lacks fundamental support, so it may maintain low - level range - bound adjustment [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,194 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,356 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.12%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 6,300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and Demand Situation: The Trump administration's appeal against the court's tariff decision creates macro uncertainties. Chile's Arauco's May offers for Yinxing and Jinxing are down. In April, the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries' softwood pulp shipments decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, but the cumulative figure from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, down 11.1% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. Downstream market demand improvement is limited, and raw material procurement is cautious [8] 2. Industry News - Zhanjiang Zhongzhi Paper Co., Ltd. plans to significantly adjust the scale of its high - end packaging new materials project. The new plan includes a 400,000 - ton/year chemimechanical pulp production line, a 400,000 - ton/year chemical pulp production line, and two special paper production lines with a total annual output of 190,000 tons. The project will also build solid waste comprehensive utilization facilities to improve resource utilization efficiency and achieve green development, marking a shift from traditional white cardboard to high - value - added special paper [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, warehouse receipt volumes, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][25][27][29]