更何况，现在黄金市场依然有大量资金入场，黄金ETF持续不断有资金买入，各国央行也在不同程度地增持黄金。 今天，大A大幅度拉升，赚钱效应很强，算是给节前的大伙发了个红包。 但是我们一直强调： 大家的注意力不要只看着大A，在大A之外，还有很多的机会值得大家关注。 这不，在大A上涨的同时，今天还有一个资产静悄悄地又涨到了历史新高。 这个资产就是我之前在文章中提到的 黄 金 。 今天早上，现货黄金价格突破了3800美元/盎司，再次创下了历史新高。 到目前为止， 今年以来黄金已经累计上涨了接近45%。 上涨速度跑赢今年所有其他主要资产类别，同时也创下了自1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。 这个月月初的时候，很多人会觉得： 现货黄金的价格能涨到3500 美元/盎司，就已经很高了，接下来很难继续涨； 但没想到，黄金价格竟然能够一路上涨到3800 美元/盎司以上，上涨势头是一点都压不住。 黄金能够维持持续上涨的势头，宏观上是因为 美元和美元资产的信用在不断崩溃。 这一点我在之前的文章中反复提过—— 美元信用不如以往，最明显的信号就是 美联储独立性的丧失 。 最新入驻美联储的理事米兰，是懂王在经济政策领域的心腹，他把米兰塞进美联储 ...

今天，大A大幅度拉升，赚钱效应很强，算是给节前的大伙发了个红包。 但是我们一直强调： 大家的注意力不要只看着大A，在大A之外，还有很多的机会值得大家关注。 这不，在大A上涨的同时，今天还有一个资产静悄悄地又涨到了历史新高。 这个资产就是我之前在文章中提到的 黄 金 。 今天早上，现货黄金价格突破了3800美元/盎司，再次创下了历史新高。 到目前为止， 今年以来黄金已经累计上涨了接近45%。 上涨速度跑赢今年所有其他主要资产类别，同时也创下了自1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。 这个月月初的时候，很多人会觉得： 现货黄金的价格能涨到3500 美元/盎司，就已经很高了，接下来很难继续涨； 但没想到，黄金价格竟然能够一路上涨到3800 美元/盎司以上，上涨势头是一点都压不住。 黄金能够维持持续上涨的势头，宏观上是因为 美元和美元资产的信用在不断崩溃。 这一点我在之前的文章中反复提过—— 美元信用不如以往，最明显的信号就是 美联储独立性的丧失 。 最新入驻美联储的理事米兰，是懂王在经济政策领域的心腹，他把米兰塞进美联储，就已经说明此刻美联储的决策已经很难摆脱美国总统的影响 了。 美联储独立性丧失，就意味着美元独立性丧失， ...

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant rise in gold prices, with expectations for prices to reach between $3700 and $4000 per ounce [10][11][12] - Recent events, including the removal of a Federal Reserve board member and stable inflation data, have contributed to the acceleration of gold prices [12][18] - The current spot gold price has stabilized around $3470 per ounce, with expectations for it to surpass $3500 in the near future [19][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between rising gold prices and the A-share market, suggesting that both may rise in tandem until at least October [25][27] - The underlying logic of the current bull market in the A-share market is attributed to asset revaluation and efforts to escape deflation [30][32] - Institutional investors are driving the current market dynamics, with significant movements observed in popular sectors like computing power and semiconductors [36][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global debt market is experiencing significant turmoil, with rising yields indicating a loss of investor confidence in government bonds, particularly in developed countries like Japan, the UK, and Germany [1][2]. - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.222% on August 30, while the 10-year yield surpassed 1.627%, marking peaks not seen since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. - Overseas investors sold 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) of Japanese bonds in a single month, reflecting a drastic reduction in demand [2]. Group 2: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The article highlights that bonds from developed countries are increasingly interconnected, meaning that issues in one country's bond market can trigger crises in others [3][5]. - The rise in yields across European bonds, such as the UK's 30-year bond reaching 5.64%, indicates a broader trend of declining demand for government debt [2][3]. - The decline in demand for U.S. bonds, despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a growing reluctance among investors to hold these assets [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Economy - The rising yields and lack of buyers for government bonds signal potential crises in the global financial markets, which could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially worse than the 2008 crisis [6]. - The article warns that even countries with strong macroeconomic controls will be affected by these global trends, as their economies are tied to external demand [6][7]. - The current environment necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, with a recommendation to invest in recognized safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant rise in gold prices, with expectations of reaching between $3700 and $4000 per ounce [10][11] - Recent events, including the removal of a Federal Reserve board member and stable inflation data, have contributed to the acceleration of gold prices [12][18] - Gold prices have already reached historical highs, with COMEX futures surpassing $3550 per ounce and spot gold nearing $3499 per ounce [6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential impact of rising gold prices on the A-share market, suggesting that both may rise in tandem until at least October [25][28] - The underlying logic for the current bull market in A-shares is attributed to asset revaluation and a desire to escape deflation [30][32] - Institutional investors are driving the current market trends, with significant movements observed in popular sectors like computing power and semiconductors [36][38]

Economic Weakness: Financial Magic of Wall Street - The U.S. boasts a GDP exceeding $29 trillion, yet its manufacturing sector has shrunk to only 11% of the economy, relying on foreign countries like Japan for essential materials [4][6] - The comparison of purchasing power reveals that China accomplishes tasks with $18 trillion GDP that the U.S. requires $29 trillion to achieve [4] - During the pandemic, the U.S. struggled to produce basic medical supplies, highlighting a significant gap in capabilities compared to China [4] Military Illusion: Rusty Aircraft Carriers and Overpriced Supplies - Despite having 11 aircraft carriers, only about 4 are operational, with high failure rates in advanced systems like the Ford-class carrier [6] - The Pentagon faces corruption issues, with exorbitant prices for basic items, indicating inefficiencies in military spending [6] - The U.S. military's performance in conflicts has been poor, exemplified by the 20-year engagement in Afghanistan that ended with a swift Taliban takeover [6] Debt Crisis: $36 Trillion Debt Burden - The U.S. government faces immense pressure from daily interest payments of $2 billion, with total national debt sufficient to purchase the entire European Union [7][8] - A significant portion of the population lacks health insurance, and many middle-class families struggle to survive financially during unemployment [7] - The decline of the dollar's credibility is evident as countries increasingly turn to alternative currencies for trade, with central banks selling U.S. debt and accumulating gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with spot gold dropping below $3150 per ounce, marking a new low since April 10. Domestic gold jewelry prices have also followed suit, reflecting the downward trend in international gold prices [1][3]. Price Movements - As of May 15, spot gold was priced at $3146.78, down 1.22% from the previous day. COMEX gold futures fell by 2.07% to $3180.7 per ounce, while London gold dropped 2.24% to $3176.58 per ounce [2][6]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices saw reductions, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook Jewelry pricing their gold at 975 RMB and 976 RMB per gram, respectively, down from over 1000 RMB per gram earlier in May [1][5]. Market Sentiment - Investors have reported significant losses due to the recent price drop, with many expressing frustration over their inability to sell at a profit. Some investors who had previously made gains are now facing substantial losses and are seeking advice on how to navigate the current market [2][3]. Analytical Insights - Analysts attribute the gold price correction to multiple factors, including increased market divergence and the historical peak of gold prices adjusted for M2 money supply. The technical indicators for gold price volatility are also showing a downward trend [3][6]. - The narrative surrounding the "collapse of dollar credit," which previously supported gold prices, has been disrupted. A strengthening dollar often signals the end of a gold bull market, and the upcoming potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further diminish gold's appeal [6].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend for gold prices may still be upward, but short-term momentum has weakened, leading to increased trading divergence [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting Gold Prices - The narrative of "dollar credit collapse" supporting gold prices is being challenged due to the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the suspension of 24% counter-tariffs [1] - The improvement in U.S. fiscal revenue, with tariffs generating $13.5 billion since April 2, is expected to reduce the fiscal deficit rate from 6.2% to 5.8% [14] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily weaken the dollar, as these cuts are aimed at supporting the economy, potentially enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets [16] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Market speculation sentiment has shown signs of cooling, with net long positions in gold decreasing and price divergence reaching 11%, close to levels seen during the 2011 bull market [5] - Historical patterns indicate that gold bull markets are often driven by multiple factors, while the onset of bear markets is closely related to a strengthening dollar [8] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Although central bank gold purchases have supported gold prices, they are not sufficient to sustain a prolonged bull market [18] - Historical data suggests that central bank purchases have not consistently led to sustained increases in gold prices, and rising gold reserves may pose risks if prices decline [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in gold prices, driven by various factors including easing global trade tensions and adjustments in market expectations regarding future gold prices [1][4][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Decline - Gold prices fell sharply, with a drop of 2.1% to below $3200 per ounce, continuing to decline to around $3150 per ounce [1][10]. - The domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen a notable decrease, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook dropping below 1000 yuan per gram [2][4]. Group 2: Market Influences - The easing of the global tariff war has led Citigroup to significantly lower its gold price forecast from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a reduction of 10% [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend for gold may still be upward, short-term momentum has weakened due to increased trading disagreements and a strong dollar [3][9]. Group 3: Technical and Economic Factors - The failure of gold prices to maintain above the psychological level of $3200 per ounce has intensified selling pressure, compounded by a moderate U.S. CPI data that cooled expectations for significant Fed rate cuts [7][9]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has seen a decline in holdings from 957.17 tons to 936.51 tons, indicating reduced investor interest [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some analysts believe this could be a buying opportunity, with expectations that gold prices may rise again due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflation risks [8][9]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029, reflecting a potential increase of about 80% from current levels [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, with a drop of 2.1% to below $3200 per ounce, is attributed to easing global trade tensions and a major downgrade in gold price forecasts by Citigroup, which has surprised the market [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in gold prices is primarily influenced by breakthroughs in US-China trade negotiations, which have reduced market risk aversion and led to capital flowing out of safe-haven assets like gold [2][4]. - A general easing of geopolitical tensions has increased market risk appetite, further diminishing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Technical factors played a role, as gold prices failed to maintain the critical psychological level of $3200 per ounce, leading to intensified selling pressure [2][3]. - The recent US CPI data showed moderate performance, cooling expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the dollar and put additional pressure on gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Citigroup has significantly revised its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a reduction of 10%, indicating a more cautious outlook for the gold market [3][4]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has seen a decline in holdings from 957.17 tons to 936.51 tons, a drop of over 20 tons, reflecting reduced investor interest in gold [4]. - Analysts suggest that despite the current downturn, gold remains in a long-term upward trend, supported by ongoing demand from central banks and market conditions that may favor gold in the future [5][6]. - Predictions from Morgan Stanley indicate that gold prices could rise to $6000 per ounce by 2029, representing an increase of approximately 80% from current levels [6].