沃勒于2020年由唐纳德·特朗普任命为美联储理事，目前是接任杰罗姆·鲍威尔美联储主席职位的热门人 选(鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年5月届满)。他表示，此前关于主席职位的面谈进展顺利，内容聚焦严肃 的经济议题，不存在任何政治因素。 这位美联储官员透露，他倾向于继续推进降息，但同时强调，政策制定者需保持谨慎态度。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)表示，过去几个月美国就业增长或 许已转为负值，当前就业市场是他最关注的问题。 "过去几个月，就业增长很可能已经是负的了，"沃勒周五在接受采访时表示，"就业市场正处于疲软状 态，这是政策制定的关键考量——我们需要明确这一点。"原定于上周发布的9月非农就业报告，因美国 政府停摆而推迟公布。 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 据路透社报道，美国政府停摆导致官方就业数据推迟，市场转向替代指标评估 9 月劳动力市场状况。芝 加哥联储估算失业率维持在 4.3%，显示整体稳定但就业增长乏力。ADP 数据显示私企减少 3.2 万岗 位，Intuit 报告称小企业裁员超过 4.8 万，而 Challenger 报告则显示裁员环比下降 37%，但全年招聘计 划创 2009 年以来最低。整体迹象表明劳动力市场停滞，美联储可能继续推动降息。 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】近日，美国研究机构世界大型企业联合会发布的报告显示，9月美国消费者信 心指数为94.2，较8月下降3.6点，创下该指数自4月以来的最低水平。 报告还显示，认为工作机会"充足"的受访者比例下滑至26.9%，较8月下降逾3个百分点，而认为"工作难 找"的受访者比例则维持在19.1%。此外，人们对财务状况的悲观情绪更加强烈，对当前财务状况的看 法出现自2022年7月以来的最大单月跌幅。 对此数据，谘商会资深经济学家Stephanie Guichard指出，消费者对商业条件的判断在近几个月明显转 弱，对就业机会的看法已连续九个月恶化并创多年新低，这一情况与美国经济复苏放缓、家庭支出面临 压力的现实相呼应。 另有华尔街分析师认为，在美联储官员考虑下一步利率走势之际，劳动力市场稳定是其重要考量因素。 美联储副主席杰斐逊则表示，美国明年通胀率将下降，未来几年将达到2%，美国劳动力市场面临的下 行风险正在增加。 方正证券分析认为，连续2个月的新增就业数据超预期走弱，反映美国就业市场全线降温。但本轮就业 人数走弱的背景在于驱逐移民背景下，劳动力供给明显走弱，使得失业率并未大幅上行，且时薪增速仍 较为温和， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson anticipates a growth rate of approximately 1.5% for the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year, indicating potential pressure on the job market without Fed policy support [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - Jefferson supports a 25 basis point rate cut during the Fed's policy meeting on September 16-17 to balance the risks of persistent inflation above target levels and the observed threats to the job market [1] - He expects inflation to begin declining towards the Fed's 2% target after this year [1] Group 2: Job Market and Policy Uncertainty - The current job market is gradually softening, suggesting that without support, it may face pressure [1] - Jefferson highlights high uncertainty in his baseline forecast due to the impacts of the current U.S. government's new policies on employment and inflation [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The effects of trade, immigration, and other policies from the Trump administration are still evolving [1] - Although tariffs have a lower impact on inflation and other economic areas than some economists expected, Jefferson believes these effects will become more apparent in the coming months [1] Group 4: Interest Rate Adjustments - The Fed has already lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate adjustment since December of the previous year [2] - Following the last policy meeting, policymakers forecast two additional rate cuts for the remainder of the year [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a continuation of the easing cycle initiated in 2024 [1][3] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with a decrease in new job creation and increasing downside risks to employment [1][3] - The Federal Reserve forecasts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, followed by 25 basis points cuts in each of the next two years [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for the rate cut were already established, primarily driven by weak employment data indicating a deteriorating labor market [3] - Despite the employment challenges, inflation data shows resilience, requiring the Federal Reserve to balance monetary policy to support the job market [3] - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 172.85 points to 46,315.27, a 0.37% increase [3] Group 3 - International spot gold prices surged, breaking above $3,700 per ounce, driven by expectations of further rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and strong investment demand [5] - Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,000 per ounce, citing strong central bank demand and potential dollar weakness [5] - The rate cut is expected to benefit three key areas: gold assets, Hong Kong tech stocks, and A-share tech stocks, with the latter two likely to see valuation recovery due to external liquidity and domestic policy support [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[4] - The market had anticipated a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 96.1% prior to the meeting[7] - This marks a total of 125 basis points cut in the current cycle, with four reductions since the beginning of the cycle[16] Group 2: Divergence in Dot Plot - The dot plot indicates a widening divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members supporting 2 more cuts this year, while 6 members believe there should be no further cuts[8] - One member suggested a reduction to below 3%, implying a need for cuts exceeding 50 basis points in the next two meetings[8] - The voting showed one dissenting vote, with Stephen I. Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to a median of 1.6% while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5%[9] - Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly adjusted upward, with the Fed showing more tolerance for deviations from the 2% inflation target[9] - The Fed's statement highlighted a weakening job market as a significant reason for the rate cut, reflecting concerns over employment risks[10] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.33%, respectively[4] - Short-term Treasury yields declined, with the 3-month yield dropping by 2 basis points[30] - The dollar index showed volatility, initially falling before rebounding by the close of trading[30]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy by lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% due to economic slowdown and rising inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and inflation rates increasing [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August revealed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly down from a revised 79,000 in July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - The Labor Department revised down the projected job growth for the next year by 911,000, raising concerns about the weakness in the U.S. job market [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, with only Stephen Milan opposing, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment and inflation, indicating that future decisions will be data-driven, particularly focusing on inflation and employment data [3]. - The FOMC's economic forecast summary indicates an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.6% and an unemployment rate expectation of 4.5% [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures - President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with previous calls for Powell's resignation [1][2]. - The recent confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, who aligns with Trump's views, raises questions about the Fed's independence [2][3]. - Powell's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence amidst political pressures is crucial for future monetary policy decisions [3].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][3] - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11-1 vote, with the only dissenting vote coming from Stephen Moore, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's decision has raised questions about its independence, particularly in light of President Trump's previous pressures for rate cuts [2][8] Economic Data - The Fed's economic projections indicate that the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate is expected to reach 2.6% next year, up from a previous forecast of 2.4%, with the 2% target not expected to be met until 2028 [3] - Employment data shows a downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating a weaker job market than previously anticipated [3][4] - The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, with a notably high unemployment rate among recent graduates [4] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose [6] - Analysts suggest that the rate cut may lead to a gradual decrease in housing, auto, and credit card loan rates, but the overall impact on stocks remains uncertain [6][7] - Historical context indicates that previous Fed rate cut cycles have typically involved larger cuts, suggesting that the current cycle may not be as aggressive [7] Political Implications - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a response to Trump's economic policies, particularly in light of the tariffs that have increased household expenses [8] - There is a perception that the Fed's independence is compromised, with some media outlets suggesting that the current Fed is effectively operating under Trump's influence [8] - The internal contradictions between Trump's policies and the Fed's actions may lead to political repercussions for Trump in the future [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first rate cut of the year and indicating two more cuts may follow this year [1][3] - The new target range for the federal funds rate is now set at 4.0% to 4.25%, following a total of 100 basis points cut in the previous year [1] - Recent data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with a decrease in new job creation and increasing risks to employment [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts note that the 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations, reflecting the Fed's need to balance employment pressures and persistent inflation [3][6] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with significant downward revisions to non-farm employment data, raising concerns about economic slowdown [4][6] - Inflation remains above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [4][6] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cut has diminished the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets, leading to a rise in international gold prices [8] - The total U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about the scale and growth of U.S. debt [10] - There has been a significant inflow of capital into emerging markets, with net inflows reaching $256.08 billion from January to August, a 35% increase year-on-year [10] Group 4 - The World Gold Council reports that 95% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [12] - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to declining trust in the dollar, driven by high U.S. debt levels and a restructuring of global order [14]

Job Market Overview - The US job market is experiencing significant challenges, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since October 2021, after remaining between 4% and 4.2% since May 2024 [3] - Economic data revisions indicate a net loss of 13,000 jobs in June 2024, marking the first monthly job loss since December 2020, and nearly a million fewer jobs added than previously reported for the year prior through March 2025 [3] Job Seekers' Experience - Job seekers, particularly those trying to enter the labor market or switch jobs, are facing difficulties, as evidenced by one individual who submitted over 500 applications but only secured two interviews [4] - The share of unemployed Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks reached 25.7% in August, a level not seen since early 2022 [5] Employment Dynamics - Employed individuals are hesitant to leave their current jobs due to the challenging job market, leading to a situation where job applications have become a full-time endeavor for many [5] - The current labor market is characterized as a "no-hire, no-fire" environment, where economic uncertainty is causing companies to refrain from hiring [5]