美国总统特朗普又干了一件打破惯例的事：提前曝光了本应12小时后官方正式公布的部分就业数据。 美东时间1月9日周五上午8点30分，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布了2025年12月美国非农就业报告，全年的就业数据由此出炉。数据公布后，财经媒体和观 察人士发现，特朗普于美东时间8日晚8点20分在旗下社交媒体平台上发布的一张图表已经包含了本应9日公布的12月数据。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》首席经济记者Nick Timiraos转发了社交媒体上网友根据官方数据整理的1月以来每月私人部门和政府部门就业数 据增减情况，并补充说明指出， 以下截图可见，特朗普公布的上述图表显示，自"1月以来"，美国的私人部门合计增加65.4万个工作岗位，政府部门的就业岗位净减少18.1万个。这与BLS周 五公布的私人部门2025年新增就业人数完全吻合。该图表贴文发布比官方预定的发布时间早了约12小时，以图表发布的时间计算，特朗普应该至少提前12小 时得到了周五才公之于众的12月就业数据，并提前半天将它曝光。 特朗普的发帖时间为美东时间周四晚8点20分，当时白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）已获得12月就业报告、但BLS尚未公开发布数据 ...

对于正在求职的美国人而言，今年是艰难的一年。预测者认为，就业前景在2026年也不会有太大改善。 经济学家表示，尽管经济增长稳健，但失业率在明年几乎全年内都将保持高位。一些人士指出，这种不 寻常的组合是由于影响力日益增强的人工智能投资在推动经济增长的同时并未促进就业。 随着劳动力市场的平衡持续从工作者向雇主倾斜，所有这一切已经导致了工资增长的放缓。这与2022年 和2023年形成了鲜明对比，当时工人占据上风，雇主被迫提供更高的薪酬来吸引人才。 10月份进行的一项哈里斯民意调查显示，55%的在职美国人担心失业，近一半的人表示，如果他们失去 当前职位，认为需要至少四个月才能找到质量相近的新工作。 劳动力市场停滞意味着明年将再次面临就业机会有限、工资增长放缓的情形，这将加剧美国家庭在中期 选举前的财务压力。这也意味着就业结构将更显著地向医疗保健行业倾斜，该行业在2025年几乎贡献了 全部净增就业。 毕马威首席经济学家黛安.斯旺克表示："我们获得的很多GDP增长来自AI基础设施投资，这些投资创造 的就业岗位不多，而且AI还造成了一些岗位流失。我们尚不清楚其具体程度。看起来这只是其初始阶 段。" 尽管经济学家表示美国并未 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128-20251205) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.08 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251128-20251205)本周美国ADP就业和PMI数据双双不及预期，其中美国11月PMI录得48.2，预期49，前值48.7，ADP新增就业减少3.2万人， 预期增加1万人。景气度数据的不及预期巩固了美联储年内降息预期，本周全球流动性有所修复，全球权益和商品均多数上涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周上 升12BPs，美元指数下行0.46%，当前点位为99.0，弱美元交易持续；2）权益方面，本周A股指数除科创50指数外其余指数均收涨，创业板指领涨市场；全球市场中韩国综合股价 200领涨全球，巴西股市跌幅明显，总体上新兴市场好于发达市场；3）商品方面， ...

华福证券 海外市场周观察（1124-1130） 降息预期主导市场情绪 投资要点： 本周美股整体走强，现货黄金整体上扬。受弱于预期的零售数据、美联 储官员鸽派表态影响，12月美联储降息预期持续升温，本周美元指数高位震 荡后连跌，美债收益率普遍整体下行，美股整体走强。黄金和白银整体上 扬，黄金周初受降息预期推动大幅拉升，其后虽有震荡，但整体维持在近两 周高位附近，白银涨势更强，周中大幅走高。下周需重点关注11月ISM制造业 PMI及9月核心PCE等数据，以及美联储官员的后续讲话和下一任美联储主席可 能的线索。 本周全球主要大类资产涨跌互现。COMEX银（+12.88%）涨幅最大，NYMEX 铂（+10.52%），纳斯达克综合指数（+4.91%），标普500（+3.73%）涨幅居 前；美元指数（-0.71%）跌幅最大，韩元兑人民币（-0.71%），卢布兑人民 币（-0.69%），美元兑人民币（-0.43%）跌幅居前。 本周全球主要权益市场呈上涨趋势。其中，纳斯达克综合指数 （+4.91%）涨幅最大，标普500（+3.73%），深证成指（+3.56%）涨幅居 前。 分行业来看，美股材料行业（+6.43%）涨幅最大。港 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, highlighting both positive and negative signals in the labor market, and suggests that the apparent economic prosperity may be fragile and accompanied by underlying structural issues. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, and far above the Dallas Fed's estimate of 30,000 jobs per month [7] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, and revisions to previous months' data showed a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs, undermining the strength of the September figures [11][12] - The service sector was the main contributor, adding 87,000 jobs, with leisure and hospitality accounting for 47,000 of those jobs, linked to a rebound in consumer spending [18] Group 2: Structural Issues in the Labor Market - There is a structural imbalance in the labor market, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.4%, indicating an influx of 500,000 workers, but job growth lagging behind, leading to a higher unemployment rate [33] - The average duration of unemployment increased to 21 weeks, with 21% of unemployed individuals taking over 27 weeks to find new jobs, indicating decreased labor market fluidity [37] - Job growth is concentrated in low-wage sectors, which has led to a stagnation in overall wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing only by 0.2% [42] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The article suggests that the strong September data may be a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing structural issues and tightening credit conditions posing risks to the economy [53] - The Federal Reserve faces internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with hawks emphasizing employment resilience and doves focusing on rising unemployment rates [50] - Current expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting indicate a 60% probability of maintaining interest rates, reflecting uncertainty due to data gaps and internal disagreements [52]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September showed a surprising increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000, which has implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - Total non-farm employment increased by 119,000, with private sector jobs contributing 81.5% of the total [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, indicating a potential imbalance in the labor market despite job growth [4][22]. - The service sector was the primary driver of job growth, adding 87,000 jobs, with notable contributions from leisure and hospitality [9][10]. Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector added 47,000 jobs, reversing previous declines, while healthcare added 43,000 jobs, reflecting ongoing demand due to an aging population [9][10]. - Government employment increased by 22,000, primarily in education, as schools ramped up hiring for the new academic year [10][12]. - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 28,000 jobs, highlighting sector-specific challenges [3]. Data Adjustments and Methodology - August's job numbers were revised down significantly, with a total downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs over July and August, raising questions about the reliability of the data [4][14]. - The discrepancy between establishment survey (119,000 jobs) and household survey (251,000 jobs) indicates structural differences in data collection methods [18][19]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4%, with a notable influx of younger workers, but this also contributed to the rise in unemployment [23][25]. - Job growth was concentrated in lower-wage sectors, leading to a decline in average wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing only by 0.2% [29][30]. Economic Outlook - The strong job numbers may be a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal, with potential risks from tightening credit conditions and global demand slowdown [39][40]. - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with mixed signals from the labor market, leading to internal divisions on interest rate policy [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, particularly focusing on the performance of growth and value styles, the recovery of the A-share market, and the potential for consumer sector recovery in the future. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market opened low but closed higher, reaching a rating of 4.2 stars, close to 4.1 stars [1] - Growth style saw a significant increase today, while value style experienced a slight decline [2][7] - The ChiNext index experienced a correction of over 10% after reaching high valuations post the National Day holiday [3] - Recent earnings reports from leading companies in the ChiNext indicate good profit growth, contributing to the index's rise [4] Group 2: Style Rotation - The A-share market is characterized by style rotation, with growth style recently outperforming value style [5][6] - In the past few days, growth style had declined while value style was on the rise [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector Analysis - The current low performance in the consumer sector is attributed to a weak fundamental backdrop, similar to the period from 2013 to 2017 [10] - The consumer sector's valuation is at historical lows, comparable to the lowest levels seen in 2013 [12][13] - If the economic fundamentals improve and the consumer sector enters a growth cycle, profit growth for listed companies in this sector is expected to rise, leading to a potential recovery [32][35] Group 4: Future Outlook - The timing of a potential recovery in the consumer sector remains uncertain, with predictions ranging from this year to the next two years [34] - Investors looking at consumer stocks should be prepared for long-term investments, as the sector may experience significant volatility [36] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen an overall increase, with technology stocks leading the gains [8] - The article provides a summary of the valuation of Hong Kong stock indices for reference [9][37]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the Hang Seng Technology Index showed the highest revenue and net profit growth rates among major Hong Kong indices, with revenue growth at 14.43% and net profit growth at 16.18% [1][2] - Excluding Alibaba, JD Group, and Meituan, the net profit growth rates for the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index were -1.04%, 3.88%, and 25.34% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The materials, healthcare, and information technology sectors led in net profit growth rates, with the information technology sector showing a Q2 net profit growth of 29.67% [3][4] - The ROE (TTM) for the information technology sector increased by 2.44 percentage points to 13.18% compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector Performance - Non-essential consumer sector net profit growth significantly declined to 3.10% in Q2 2025 from 44.64% in Q1, with AI-driven companies performing well [4][5] - The media and entertainment sector saw a net profit growth of 32.27%, driven by AI business, with advertising and publishing sectors showing substantial increases [5] Group 4: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector's net profit growth was 5.02% in Q2 2025, recovering from a -2.56% decline in Q1, with securities and brokerage net profit growth at 73.80% [7] - The banking sector's net profit growth was -0.11%, indicating continued pressure on traditional banking profitability [7] Group 5: Healthcare Sector Performance - The healthcare sector's net profit growth reached 42.50% in Q2 2025, up from 26.47% in Q1, with significant improvements in ROE [6] Group 6: Energy and Materials Sector Performance - The energy sector experienced a net profit decline of 19.36% in Q2 2025, worsening from -12.63% in Q1 [8] - The materials sector showed strong performance with a net profit growth of 50.78%, supported by high ROE levels [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. is experiencing an unprecedented wave of CEO departures, with 1,358 CEOs leaving in the first half of the year, a 9% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level since 2002 [1] - The turnover rate for CEOs in publicly traded companies has reached a 20-year high, with at least 41 CEOs leaving S&P 500 companies by July, compared to 49 for the entire previous year [1] - Factors contributing to this high turnover include economic uncertainty, changing corporate values, tariffs, regulatory changes, evolving consumer behavior, and rapid implementation of new technologies [1] Industry Impact - The government and non-profit sector has seen the highest CEO turnover, with 286 departures, followed by technology (149) and healthcare (133) [3] - The consumer goods sector experienced 41 CEO departures, while retail saw 38, both representing a 100% increase from the previous year due to declining consumer confidence and tariff impacts [4] Leadership Trends - There is a notable trend of companies opting for interim successors, with 33% of new CEOs being temporarily appointed in the first half of the year, compared to only 9% in the same period last year [4] - The turnover rate for CFOs has also reached a historical high of 56%, influenced by rising retirement rates and the record CEO turnover [4]

Group 1 - Over 300 active equity funds established before 2021 have surpassed their 2021 peak net values since July 2023, indicating positive returns for investors who held since the peak [1][2] - The rebound in active equity funds is attributed to strategic investments in technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumer sectors by veteran fund managers [1][4] - Notable funds like the Fortune New Vitality Mixed Fund and Huabao Core Advantage Mixed Fund have shown significant recovery, with year-to-date gains of 29.86% and 37.47% respectively, reaching historical highs [2][3] Group 2 - The E Fund Healthcare Industry Mixed Fund has also capitalized on the structural market trends, with its net value surpassing the 2021 peak and reaching a new high of 4.691 yuan [3] - Veteran fund managers such as Fu Pengbo and Chen Peng have made notable comebacks, with their funds achieving substantial gains by focusing on emerging sectors [4] - The importance of adapting investment strategies to current market trends is emphasized, as the era of passive investment is over, requiring active engagement with new industries [5][6]