Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates, lowering the key Fed Funds rate to a range of 4.00-4.25% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [1] - The new Fed Funds rate is now set between 4.00% and 4.25% [1]

2025 年 09 月 17 日 铅：缺乏明显驱动，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17055 | -0.61% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2001.5 | -0.87% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 54978 | -3688 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5516 | -964 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 45095 | -1961 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 165625 | -277 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -48 | -2.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -25 | -15 | 进口升贴水（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to be highly unusual, with significant discussions expected regarding interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The meeting is described as potentially the strangest in years, indicating a departure from typical proceedings [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3680 per ounce, having reached a historical high of $3685.47 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields [2][4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to set the tone for the remainder of the year, influencing gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains strong as long as it stays above the 5-day moving average, with potential resistance levels at $3686, $3704, and $3746 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The price of U.S. crude oil is trading at approximately $63.32 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical events such as drone attacks on Russian refineries and U.S. pressure on NATO countries regarding Russian oil purchases [5] - The oil market is currently in a weak and volatile state, with prices fluctuating within a range of $61.20 to $64.40, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling during price rebounds and buying on dips, with key resistance at $64.5-$65.5 and support at $62.0-$61.0 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals has rejected former President Trump's request to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 [1] Group 1 - The court's decision allows Cook to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which is significant for monetary policy discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remained stable as investors refrained from making significant bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting this week [1] Group 1 - Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the tone of comments that Chairman Powell will adopt at the conclusion of the meeting [1] - Concerns exist about the guidance Powell will provide for future policy decisions [1]

Core Points - The Trump administration is seeking to expedite the firing of Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][4] - An emergency motion has been filed with the Court of Appeals for a stay pending appeal, indicating urgency in the matter [3] - The administration aims for a court ruling by September 15th to facilitate the firing before the Fed meeting [4] Implications for the Federal Reserve - The potential firing of Lisa Cook suggests a strategic move by the Trump administration to influence voting dynamics within the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The administration's actions indicate a lack of confidence that Cook would support a rate cut, which is a critical decision for the Fed [5]

Core Viewpoint - The September Federal Reserve meeting is described as a "meaningful" event, indicating that significant discussions are ongoing, but no decisions have been made yet [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Insights - The meeting held in September is characterized as having practical significance, suggesting that the outcomes could influence future monetary policy [1] - There is an emphasis on the fact that no definitive decisions have been reached during this meeting, highlighting ongoing deliberations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, some institutions have provided ratings for specific sectors: Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" stance on Chinese stocks, and Standard Chartered Bank maintains an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks in its "2025 H2 Global Market Outlook" [36]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had a mixed performance overnight, with most contracts falling. International precious metals generally rose, while international oil prices slightly declined. The global economic and policy environment is complex, with various factors influencing different markets such as macro - policies, corporate operations, and international trade relations [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Domestic Futures**: Most domestic futures main contracts fell. Soda ash dropped over 2%, and glass, coke, cotton, etc., dropped over 1%. Shanghai silver and caustic soda rose over 1% [3]. - **International Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 1.13% to $3516.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.62% to $40.723 per ounce [4]. - **International Oil Prices**: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.48% to $64.01 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.28% to $67.48 per barrel [5]. - **London Base Metals**: All London base metals rose. LME zinc rose 1.19%, LME nickel rose 0.93%, etc. [5]. - **International Agricultural Products**: International agricultural product futures had mixed performances. US soybeans rose 0.45%, US corn rose 2.25%, etc. [7]. Important Information Macro Information - As of July 2025, there were 150 futures companies in China, with a trading volume of 10.99 billion lots and an operating income of 4.282 billion yuan in July [9]. - As of August 29, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 29.7 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 1.6% [9]. - The NDRC will introduce policies to promote private investment and set minimum private investment participation ratios for major projects [9]. - From August 27 - 29, Chinese and US officials held talks on Sino - US economic and trade relations [9]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points [10][12]. - The Fed entered a "quiet period" before its September meeting [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - From September 1, 2025, the maximum daily opening position for non - futures company members or clients in the caustic soda 2601 contract is 10,000 lots [14]. - Last week, PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, down 1.59% month - on - month [14]. - In June, US crude oil production reached a record high, and LNG production increased by 12,000 barrels per day [14]. Metal Futures - Tin Industry Co., Ltd. will conduct a routine shutdown for equipment maintenance, expected to last no more than 45 days, with little impact on the annual production plan [16][17]. - Last week, copper inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and aluminum inventory increased by 991 tons [18]. - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff measures were illegal [18]. Black - Series Futures - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week [20]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 137.6302 million tons, down 821,800 tons [20]. - Shanxi Coking Coal's subsidiary had a safety accident and stopped production, with an annual approved capacity of 4 million tons [21]. - This week, the total urban inventory was 8.8916 million tons, up 349,900 tons from last week [23]. - In August, the steel industry PMI was 49.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - Colombia banned coal exports to Israel [23]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of August 29, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 32.24 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan per head [25]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange revised the rules for fresh apple futures [25]. - India allocated 2.35 million tons of sugar for domestic sales in September 2025, the same as in 2024 [25]. - Indonesia set the reference price for CPO in September at $954.71 per ton, up from August [27]. - In the first half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a 8.17% year - on - year increase in sugarcane crushing volume [27]. - The ISO expects the global sugar supply shortage in 2025/2026 to narrow significantly to 231,000 tons [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1.421486 million tons, up 10.2% from the previous month [29]. Financial Market Finance - Next week, 29 A - share stocks will face unlocking, with a total unlocking market value of 18.877 billion yuan, down 73.51% week - on - week [31]. - In H1 2025, Shanghai - listed companies' operating income was 24.68 trillion yuan, down 1.3% year - on - year, and net profit was 2.39 trillion yuan, up 1.1% [33]. - As of the end of August, the scale of Shanghai ETFs exceeded 3.7 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of over 350 billion yuan this year [33]. - As of June 30, 2025, the five A - share listed insurance companies' stock investment scale was nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, up 405.356 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [35]. - In August, A - shares continued to rise. Institutions expect the market to be volatile in September and focus on resource sectors, innovation drugs, etc. [36]. - Many foreign financial institutions are optimistic about the Chinese market. Hedge funds are net buyers of Chinese stocks [36]. - In the first eight months, the A - share market was strong, and the average return of active equity funds was 23.83% [36]. - Hesai Technology passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's hearing and plans to list in Hong Kong [37]. - Hefei Xinqi Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. and Easy Health Group submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [37]. Industry - Since August, nearly 20 small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit interest rates [38]. - From January to August, the sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 2.32705 trillion yuan, down 13.3% year - on - year [40]. - In August, the inventory warning index for Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year [40]. - In 2025, China's total box office (including overseas) exceeded 40 billion yuan [40]. - The mother - fund market cooled significantly this year, with 33 new mother - funds established [41]. - Shanghai's leading commercial health insurance companies are developing new group insurance products [41]. Overseas - Trump's global tariff policy and the lawsuit to remove Fed Governor Cook are facing the US Supreme Court's final ruling [42]. - Japan and the US are discussing a package deal including tariff reduction and a $550 billion investment plan [44]. - ECB Governing Council member Rehn said inflation risks are "downward - biased" [44]. International Stock Market - Tata Capital will launch a $2 billion IPO in September [45]. Commodity - Malaysia's palm oil exports in August were 1.421486 million tons, up 10.22% month - on - month [46]. Bond - Yuzhou Group's overseas debt restructuring became effective, involving about $6.68 billion in debt, and is expected to reduce the repayment pressure by about $3.5 billion [47]. Foreign Exchange - In the past two weeks, the RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, driven by the weakening US dollar index and narrowing Sino - US interest rate differentials [49]. - The Canadian dollar has risen 4.68% against the US dollar this year, being the worst - performing G10 currency [50].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker emphasizes the importance of maintaining an open mindset during each Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - Harker's approach reflects a commitment to adaptability in monetary policy discussions [1] - The statement suggests a focus on data-driven decision-making in response to economic conditions [1]