市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 居民存款"搬家"，增量资金流向何方？——"重 估牛"系列之资金篇（一） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 7 月至今，市场行情具有较为典型的"资金驱动"特征。居民资金或正从银行理财产品 逐渐转而流向非银理财产品与资本市场，而各行业融资余额上升幅度、小单资金净买入均与行 业涨跌幅成正相关。从不同资金行为上看，杠杆资金偏好机械设备、电子、医药等行业，7-8 月 小单持续流入市场，8 月起大单逐步流入市场，二者均流入计算机、机械设备、电子等行业较 多，ETF 资金整体维持稳定流入，市场中长期重要增量资金或稳步入市。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 居民存款"搬家"，增量资金流向何方？——"重 2] 估牛"系列之资金篇（一） [Table_Sum ...

今天的行情， 港股 的部分，比较容易理解。 一方面，恒生科技在上周四之前，已经震荡下跌了一个月左右的时间，而在此期间，港股三巨头， 腾讯、阿里、小米 ，合计被净买入超过230 亿，分列净买入排行榜的2-4位，仅次于被南下的ETF和平安疯狂加仓的国寿（被净买入超过110亿），因此，资金的基本盘，本就很牢固；与此 同时，因为上周蔚来新出的ES8口碑很好，今日股价大涨15%，因此新能车板块也没继续拖后腿。 另一方面， 我们昨晚在《 大的真的要来了？ 》里聊过， 美联储 的降息预期是明显的催化剂，叠加外资主动基金去年10月以来首度单周净流 入，外加港元汇率压力的阶段性解除，今天外资预计继续流入了港股，使得南下资金虽然净流出14亿，但港股全天一路向上，来了一发大的。 而 A股 这边的行情，请允许我用三个字、三个图，来描述一下。 三个字，分别是， "大"、"快"、"猛" 。 第二个字，"快"，指的是指数突破整数位，更快了。 这个观点，我们在上周的《 牛市加速了？ 》里已经提了，上证指数和wind全A在突破阈值后，近期突破新的整数位的速度在加快。 下图，wind全A，从上周五突破6000点，到 今天突破6100点，只用了1 ...

Market Overview - On August 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, with the total margin trading balance at 21,467.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.74 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai market was 10,889.49 billion yuan, down by 28.76 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance increased by 21.48 billion yuan to 10,503.39 billion yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Among the industries tracked by Shenwan, 15 sectors saw an increase in margin trading balances, with the computer industry leading with an increase of 26.26 billion yuan, followed by the electronics and communications sectors with increases of 20.33 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,820 stocks experienced an increase in margin trading balances, accounting for 48.96% of the total, with 405 stocks seeing an increase of over 5% [1] - The stock with the largest increase in margin trading balance was Wuxi Dingbang, which saw a balance of 7.6626 million yuan, an increase of 145.98%, despite a price drop of 2.23% on the same day [1] - Other notable stocks with significant increases in margin trading balances included Taihu Yuanda and Kosen Technology, with increases of 130.34% and 52.23%, respectively [1] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the largest increases in margin trading balances, the average price increase was 2.00%, with notable gainers including Songsheng Co., Weisaibo, and Jieya Co., with increases of 11.64%, 10.91%, and 10.23%, respectively [2] - Conversely, the top losers included Wantong Hydraulic, Weibao Hydraulic, and Haocen Software, with declines of 10.55%, 7.59%, and 6.68%, respectively [2] Margin Trading Balance Declines - In contrast, 1,897 stocks saw a decrease in margin trading balances, with 330 stocks experiencing declines of over 5% [4] - The stock with the largest decrease was Tiangang Co., with a margin trading balance of 5.8740 million yuan, down by 50.89% [5] - Other significant declines were observed in Hengli Drilling and Taipeng Intelligent, with decreases of 33.60% and 33.36%, respectively [5]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 此外，8月18日沪深两市合计成交2.76万亿元，成为历史第三大成交额，仅次于去年10月8日（3.45万亿元）、去年10月9日 （2.94万亿元）。 | 序号 | 截止日 | | 融资(频率:日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 融资余额(亿元) | 期间买入额(亿元) | 期间偿还额(亿元) | ↓期间净买入额(亿元) | | 1 | 2024-10-08 | 15,381.36 | 4.063.80 | 2,988.94 | 1,074.86 | | 2 | 2024-09-30 | 14,306,50 | 2.846.43 | 2.387.08 | 459.35 | | 3 | 2024-10-09 | 15,780.71 | 3.314.38 | 2,915.03 | 399.35 | | বা | 2025-08-18 | 20,881.05 | 3.266.31 | 2.871.25 | 395.06 | | 5 | 2020-07-06 | 12,035.90 | 1.881.40 | 1,513.1 ...

Group 1 - The margin financing and securities lending (two融) balance has surpassed 2.1 trillion yuan, marking the first time in 10 years that it has reached this level, with a current balance of 21,023 billion yuan as of August 18, 2025 [2][4] - The two融 balance has seen a significant increase of approximately 397 billion yuan from the previous trading day, achieving six consecutive days of growth, and has accumulated over 1,100 billion yuan in growth since the beginning of August 2025 [2][4] - The proportion of the two融 balance to the A-share circulating market value remains stable at 2.32%, indicating that the growth pace of the two融 balance is in line with the growth of the A-share circulating market value [4] Group 2 - The increase in the two融 balance is primarily driven by the growth in financing balance, which reached 20,881 billion yuan, also showing a six-day consecutive increase [4] - The daily two融 trading volume has surged, exceeding 300 billion yuan on August 18, 2025, reaching 327.3 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year and the third highest in history [4] - Various industry sectors have experienced significant financing net inflows, with electronics, machinery, and computer industries seeing net inflows exceeding 100 billion yuan, while several other sectors also reported substantial financing net inflows [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in margin trading balance, which has surpassed 2.1 trillion yuan for the first time in 10 years, indicating a robust market sentiment and trading activity [1][4]. Group 1: Margin Trading Balance - As of August 18, 2025, the margin trading balance reached 2.1023 trillion yuan, marking a growth of approximately 39.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, achieving six consecutive days of increase [4]. - The margin trading balance has accumulated a growth of over 110 billion yuan since the beginning of August 2025 [4]. - The proportion of margin trading balance to the A-share circulating market value remains stable at 2.32%, consistent with levels observed in early August 2025, indicating that the growth pace of margin trading balance aligns with the increase in A-share market value [2][6]. Group 2: Financing and Securities Lending - The growth in margin trading balance is primarily driven by an increase in financing balance, which reached 2.0881 trillion yuan as of August 18, 2025, with a daily increase of approximately 39.5 billion yuan [6]. - The daily margin trading volume also saw a significant rise, exceeding 300 billion yuan, reaching 327.3 billion yuan on August 18, 2025, marking a new high for the year and the third highest in history [6]. - In contrast, the securities lending balance remained stable at around 14.2 billion yuan, with a modest increase of approximately 400 million yuan since the beginning of August [7]. Group 3: Industry Financing Trends - Most industry sectors have experienced net financing inflows since August 2025, with significant net purchases in the electronics, machinery, and computer sectors, each exceeding 10 billion yuan [9]. - The financing balance for several industries has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with the electronics, non-bank financials, computers, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, machinery, and automotive sectors leading the way [10].

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its strong performance this week, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.55%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 8.58% [1] - Market trading activity significantly increased, with a total trading volume of approximately 2.27 trillion yuan [1] - There was notable divergence in individual stock performance, with 55 stocks rising over 30% during the week, led by Oulutong with an 82.52% increase [1] Industry Analysis - Among the stocks that rose over 30%, the electronics sector had the highest representation with 9 stocks, followed by the machinery equipment sector with 7 stocks [3] - Conversely, 36 stocks experienced declines of over 10%, with Jinlihua Electric, Jihua Group, and *ST Gaohong each falling over 20% [3] Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional fund movements showed a mixed pattern, with institutions appearing on the trading lists of 119 stocks, net buying 56 and net selling 63 [4] - 41 stocks received net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan from institutions, with five stocks, including Zhinan Zhen and Innovation Medical, seeing net purchases over 100 million yuan [4] - Zhinan Zhen had the highest net purchase amount among stocks on the trading list, rising 26% with a turnover rate of 54.55% and a total trading volume of 31.427 billion yuan [4] Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector performed exceptionally well this week, with several stocks achieving consecutive daily limit increases. Changcheng Securities recorded a "three consecutive limit up," while Tianfeng Securities hit the daily limit [5] - The first batch of semi-annual reports from brokerages showed significant profit growth for small and medium-sized firms. Jianghai Securities reported a revenue of 726 million yuan, up 81.17%, and a net profit of 288 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1311.60% [5] - Self-operated businesses were the main driver of performance growth for small and medium-sized brokerages, with Jianghai Securities' self-operated business revenue reaching 406 million yuan, a 211.77% increase [5] Margin Trading Activity - Margin trading saw a substantial net purchase of 45.7 billion yuan this week, marking the largest weekly net purchase of the year, with the total margin balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, the highest level since June 2015 [5] - The electronics sector was the most favored by margin traders, receiving over 13.3 billion yuan in net purchases, followed by machinery equipment with over 4 billion yuan [5]

Group 1 - A-shares have temporarily retreated below 3700 points after an "eight consecutive days" rally, with investors expressing mixed sentiments about the market's performance and future potential [1] - Despite the recent market adjustment, trading volume remains robust, with A-share turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan on consecutive days, indicating strong market activity [1] - The MSCI China Index has outperformed major global indices with a year-to-date increase of 26.9%, highlighting the strength of Chinese stocks on a global scale [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in A-shares has exceeded most expectations, driven by supportive policies, improved investor sentiment, and strong economic data, particularly in exports [2][3] - The shift in capital market focus from heavy financing to balanced investment and financing has created a healthier market environment, fostering a slow bull market [2] - The increase in A-share financing balance, surpassing 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, reflects heightened investor confidence and a positive outlook for the market [5][6] Group 3 - The current market rally is attributed to a combination of policy support and capital inflows, with the central bank maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy to ensure liquidity [4] - Institutional investors have begun to increase their equity allocations, while southbound capital has significantly contributed to the Hong Kong stock market's recovery [4] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with investors showing a greater willingness to enter the market, driven by the positive momentum and potential for future gains [3][7] Group 4 - Fund companies maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, emphasizing the importance of monitoring potential volatility due to profit-taking after recent gains [7] - The focus on sectors such as AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends is expected to drive market performance in the near term [7][8] - The demand for high-yield assets is anticipated to remain strong, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and ongoing policy initiatives aimed at boosting market confidence [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a steady rise, with margin financing balance reaching a significant milestone of 20,320.61 billion yuan as of August 13, marking a return to levels not seen in 10 years [1] Group 1: Financing Balance and Market Trends - As of August 13, the A-share financing balance has surpassed 20 trillion yuan, a level last seen on May 20, 2015, during a bullish market phase [1] - The financing balance has increased from 10 trillion yuan to 20 trillion yuan in approximately 100 trading days during the previous peak [1] - The current financing balance is approximately 2.26% of the A-share market's circulating market value, significantly lower than the historical peak of 4.72% in 2015 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance and Investment Focus - Since April 7, 2023, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, machinery, electronics, computers, and defense have seen net financing inflows exceeding 110 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in innovative drugs, new energy, semiconductors, computing power, and military industries [1] - The pharmaceutical sector has received the highest net financing inflow of 277.47 billion yuan since April 7, 2023 [2] - Among individual stocks, BYD, a leader in the new energy vehicle sector, received a net financing inflow of 43.63 billion yuan, while Xinyisheng, a leader in computing power, received 39.69 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - The number of margin financing and securities lending investors has exceeded 7.5 million, a significant increase from less than 4 million a decade ago, indicating a broader participation in the market [3] - The financing buy-in amount has fluctuated between 7.05% and 10.84% of the A-share trading volume since April 7, remaining relatively stable compared to the annual average of 9.11% [2]

Market Overview - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48%, with the total margin trading balance reaching 20,462.51 billion yuan, an increase of 11.718 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai market was 10,388.87 billion yuan, up by 3.431 billion yuan; in the Shenzhen market, it was 10,007.46 billion yuan, an increase of 8.254 billion yuan; and in the Beijing Stock Exchange, it was 6.618 billion yuan, up by 0.033 billion yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Among the industries classified by Shenwan, 26 industries saw an increase in margin trading balances, with the non-bank financial sector leading with an increase of 2.313 billion yuan, followed by the communication and pharmaceutical industries, which increased by 1.903 billion yuan and 1.706 billion yuan, respectively [1] Stock Performance - A total of 2,028 stocks experienced an increase in margin trading balances, accounting for 54.59% of the total, with 435 stocks showing an increase of over 5% [1] - The stock with the highest increase in margin trading balance was Xin'an Clean, with a latest balance of 8.9101 million yuan, reflecting a 100.64% increase compared to the previous trading day, and its stock price rose by 3.85% [1] - Other notable stocks with significant increases in margin trading balances included C Guangjianke and Bond Shares, with increases of 91.40% and 79.54%, respectively [1] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the highest increase in margin trading balances, the average increase in stock prices was 8.78%, with C Guangjianke, Tongguan Copper Foil, and Jin Chengzi leading with increases of 28.20%, 20.02%, and 20.01%, respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the largest declines included Meibang Technology, Geli'er, and Polijie, with declines of 1.55%, 1.18%, and 0.32%, respectively [2] Margin Trading Balance Changes - The top 20 stocks with the highest increases in margin trading balances included: - C Guangjianke: 9,514.23 million yuan, up 91.40%, with a stock price increase of 28.20% [3] - Bond Shares: 1,309.92 million yuan, up 79.54%, with no change in stock price [3] - In contrast, the stocks with the largest decreases in margin trading balances included: - Tianfangbiao: 1,087.23 million yuan, down 35.47%, with a stock price decline of 3.76% [5] - Boxin Biological: 373.22 million yuan, down 31.18%, with a stock price decline of 1.90% [5]