Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of September 22, 2025, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [2]. Historical LPR Changes - The 1-year LPR has seen a gradual decline from 3.70% in January 2022 to 3.00% in September 2025, reflecting a total decrease of 70 basis points over this period [2][3]. - The 5-year LPR has also decreased from 4.60% in January 2022 to 3.50% in September 2025, marking a reduction of 110 basis points [2][3]. Recent Adjustments - The only adjustment to the LPR in 2025 occurred on May 20, when the 1-year LPR was lowered by 10 basis points from 3.10% to 3.00% [3]. Market Expectations - Following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, industry experts anticipate that China may follow suit with potential reductions in reserve requirements or interest rates, suggesting a forthcoming wave of economic benefits [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher with performance divergence, large-cap blue-chip stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks. The market is in a random walk state this week with less macro data and fewer disturbances from domestic and overseas news. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, market trading is relatively dull. The previously announced economic data shows that the economy in August was still under pressure, and the real estate had an obvious drag on fixed investment. The marginal weakening of the "trade-in" policy also put pressure on social retail sales. It is necessary to wait for further policy efforts. Although Powell's hawkish remarks put short-term pressure on the RMB, the dot plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, which will also provide space for domestic policy easing. The market is expected to remain volatile before the policy is implemented. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2512) was at 4562.2, up 39.6; IF sub-main contract (2510) was at 4585.0, up 37.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 2953.6, up 15.4; IH sub-main contract (2510) was at 2953.8, up 14.6. IC main contract (2512) was at 7166.6, up 30.8; IC sub-main contract (2510) was at 7293.2, up 32.8. IM main contract (2512) was at 7281.8, down 6.6; IM sub-main contract (2510) was at 7444.6, down 10.2. There were also changes in various spreads and differences between different quarters and the current month [2] 3.2 Futures Positions - IF's top 20 net positions were -28,681.00, down 261.0; IH's top 20 net positions were -17,213.00, up 845.0. IC's top 20 net positions were -25,724.00, down 719.0; IM's top 20 net positions were -40,023.00, down 1530.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4593.49, up 27.4; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was at 2952.7, up 13.2. The CSI 500 was at 7341.3, up 17.6; the CSI 1000 was at 7506.5, down 27.7. There were also corresponding changes in the basis of each main contract [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 23,917.71, up 446.16; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 24,311.05, up 143.17. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2861.33, down 384.30. There were also changes in reverse repurchase, main funds, MLF, the proportion of rising stocks, Shibor, option prices and implied volatilities, and various ratios [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares were at 4.40, down 3.40; the technical aspect was at 2.70, down 5.50. The capital aspect was at 6.00, down 1.40 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 22, the loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%. At the press conference, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing introduced that the "science" content of the capital market has been further improved, and the market value of the A-share technology sector currently accounts for more than 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium and long-term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of the A-share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A-share market value [2]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both one-year and five-year terms has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% as of September 22 [1] - Market expectations align with the stability of the LPR, as the policy interest rates have not changed, and there is a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR spreads due to historical low net interest margins [1][2] - Experts anticipate that with the Federal Reserve potentially restarting interest rate cuts, China's monetary policy may have more room for adjustment, leading to a more accommodative external environment [1][3] Group 2 - There is potential for downward movement in policy rates and LPR by the end of the year to support domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - LPR changes are constrained by factors such as bank interest margins and deposit rates, with limited room for further reductions in deposit rates after multiple cuts this year [3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a balanced approach in its monetary policy, with possibilities for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, while ensuring stability in growth, interest margins, and foreign trade [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced the latest loan market quotation rates (LPR) on September 22, 2025, with the 1-year LPR set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [1] - The LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months since a 10 basis points reduction in May [2] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting resulted in a 25 basis points interest rate cut, marking the first rate cut of the year, which may influence global central banks to consider similar actions [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the low benchmark interest rates in China, there is still some room for monetary easing, although the central bank's capacity for further rate cuts is limited [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 1: Current LPR Situation - The stability of LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy rates and the lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR spreads due to historical low net interest margins [2][4] - Recent increases in medium to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit and 10-year government bond yields, have influenced market expectations [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts predict potential downward adjustments in policy rates and LPR by the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [3] - The easing of external constraints due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide a more favorable environment for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][5] Group 3: Constraints on LPR Changes - The decline of LPR is constrained by factors such as bank interest margins, which could be negatively impacted by rapid LPR decreases, and the already low levels of deposit rates [4] - The current low levels of newly issued loan rates further limit the space for reducing deposit rates [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank is expected to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on internal and external factors while implementing moderately loose monetary policies, with a preference for reserve requirement ratio cuts over interest rate reductions [5] - Future LPR changes will need to balance multiple objectives, including growth stabilization, interest margin maintenance, and foreign trade stability [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/9/22 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Relevant Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F30825507, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0020723 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the A - share major indices closed up collectively. The three major indices fluctuated widely, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly. Most industry sectors fell, with the social services sector leading the decline and the electronics sector strengthening significantly [2] - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The RMB weakened slightly recently due to this news. Domestically, in August, the growth rates of social retail, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly and were weaker than market expectations. The real estate market also showed an accelerating weakening trend. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed significantly, reaching the lowest level since June 2021, which may reflect the continuous improvement of residents' consumption willingness [2] - In the context of the low net interest margin of banks, the unchanged LPR quotation is in line with market expectations. Overall, the economic data in August was still under pressure, with real estate dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the "trade - in" policy pressuring social retail. However, the previously announced financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. Since financial data has a certain leading effect, it is expected to be reflected in subsequent economic data [2] - Although Powell's hawkish remarks pressured the RMB in the short term, the dot - plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year. The subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, providing room for domestic policy easing. Stock indices still have long - term upward potential. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4484.0, up 13.6; the IC main contract (2512) was at 7013.2, up 14.2; the IM main contract (2512) was at 7230.2, up 28.0 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. all increased. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1583.8, up 10.0 [2] - **Futures Term Structure**: The differences between the current - season, next - season, and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends. For example, IF current - season - current - month was - 22.4, up 0.2; IC current - season - current - month was - 130.2, down 9.2 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 25,689.00, up 1742.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 43,049.00, down 119.0 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4522.61, up 20.7; the CSI 500 was at 7,225.1, up 54.8 [2] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.6, down 1.1; the IC main contract basis was - 211.9, down 25.6 [2] Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume was 21,424.63 billion yuan, down 2069.50 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 23,981.85 billion yuan, down 42.81 billion yuan; the north - bound trading volume was 3263.94 billion yuan, down 453.97 billion yuan [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 40.08%, up 4.90%; the Shibor was 1.427%, down 0.034%; the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2510) was 91.40, up 4.00; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 20.86%, down 0.31% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares was 5.30, up 1.30; the technical aspect was 4.00, up 0.50; the capital aspect was 6.70, up 2.30 [2] Key Data to Follow - September 23, 15:15 - 16:30: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK September SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values; 21:45: US September SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value [3] - September 26, 20:30: US August personal expenditure/income, PCE, core PCE [3] - September 27, 9:30: China's August industrial enterprise profits of large - scale industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 1 - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate, which has not changed in September [1] - Recent increases in medium to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated one-year interbank certificates of deposit and the ten-year government bond yields, have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - The current net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low, further contributing to the lack of incentive to adjust LPR downwards [1] Group 2 - There is potential for a reduction in policy interest rates and LPR quotes before the end of the year, particularly as measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market are implemented [2] - The expectation of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter could lead to a significant decrease in loan rates for businesses and residents [2] - This monetary easing is seen as a crucial strategy to stimulate consumption and investment, effectively countering the slowdown in external demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of stability after a 10 basis point decline in May [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Influences - The stability of the LPR aligns with market expectations, influenced by the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as a policy interest rate [3][4]. - Recent increases in key mid-to-long-term market interest rates, such as the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit yield and the 10-year government bond yield, have limited banks' motivation to lower the LPR [3][4]. - Factors such as extreme weather, growth stabilization policies, external fluctuations, and adjustments in the real estate market have contributed to volatility in macroeconomic data, but ongoing fiscal policy support and positive export growth suggest a stable LPR [4][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is adjusting liquidity management tools, transitioning the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, indicating a move towards market-driven interest rates [6]. - Experts suggest that future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure of credit rather than merely increasing the total volume, given the high leverage and pressure on bank asset quality [6][7]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts and LPR adjustments exists, particularly in response to external pressures and the need to stimulate domestic demand [7][8]. - The recent Federal Reserve rate cut may reduce constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility in implementing measures to support economic growth [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, indicating stability in monetary policy and potential for future adjustments to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [1][6]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms remained unchanged in September, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [4]. - The PBOC's 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed, suggesting that the pricing basis for the LPR has not shifted significantly [1][4]. - Analysts believe there is still room for downward adjustments in policy rates and LPR before the end of the year to support economic growth and stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Future Outlook - Recent macroeconomic data has shown volatility due to various factors, including extreme weather and external market fluctuations, but fiscal policies have been supportive since the beginning of the year [4]. - The PBOC is expected to implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and consumers [7]. - The current low inflation levels provide sufficient space for a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing concerns about high inflation [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The shift to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding for the 14-day reverse repurchase operations indicates a move towards market-driven interest rates [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent Federal Reserve rate cut may improve the environment for China's monetary easing, allowing for more aggressive domestic policy adjustments [6][8]. - The need for further support in the real estate market is emphasized, with expectations for targeted reductions in the LPR for longer-term loans to stimulate housing demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, with both rates unchanged from the previous month [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rates** - The one-year LPR is set at 3.0% [1] - The five-year LPR is set at 3.5% [1] - Both LPRs have remained stable compared to the previous month [1]