双焦期货周度报告 2025年08月25日 七轮提涨落地 限产预期仍存 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格震荡运行。焦炭第七轮 提涨全面落地，成本支撑增强，但受政策调控和下游需求跟进不 足影响，盘面价格震荡承压。 基本面分析：产地端，个别煤矿因井下自身原因出现停减产 现象，多数煤矿维持正常生产。当前市场定价逻辑逐渐回归基本 面主导趋势。由于下游需求减弱和采购节奏放缓，洗煤厂及贸易 商采购趋于谨慎，交投活跃度下降，市场成交热度减弱。需求 端，焦炭第七轮提涨落地，当前钢厂在利润支撑下生产积极性较 高，基于钢厂高利润支撑和铁水产量高位，钢厂端表现为"高产 量、弱去库、强预期"的结构。焦炭价格受到需求韧性支撑，但 钢材累库压力与潜在的限产政策将对其上行空间形成制约。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,838.00 | +2.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,638.00 | +16.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 589,774.00 | -7005.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 453,095.00 | +716.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -80,936.00 | +676.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -35,845.00 | +746.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 92.00 | +12.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 160.00 | +6.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 71,820.00 | -1228.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 20,202.00 | -395.00↓ | | ...

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北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）8月20日，人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月 20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与上月保持 不变。 ...

| 期限 | LPR (%) | | --- | --- | | 137 T 1 | 3.00 | | EV ວ | 3. 50 | 8月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 ...

Group 1 - The National Office will hold a press conference regarding the preparations for the military parade on August 20, with key officials providing updates and answering questions [2] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for August will be announced on August 20, which includes the one-year and five-year rates [2] Group 2 - The 2025 World Educators Conference (WWEC) will take place from August 20 to 22 at the Shanghai National Exhibition and Convention Center, featuring nearly 20 professional forums covering various educational fields [3] Group 3 - On August 20, a total of 5 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a combined unlock volume of 46.6683 million shares, amounting to a market value of 675 million yuan [4] - The companies with the highest unlock volumes include Leshan Electric Power, New Asia Electronics, and Bocheng Co., with unlock volumes of 39.9202 million shares, 4.1524 million shares, and 1.8867 million shares respectively [4] - In terms of market value, Leshan Electric Power, New Asia Electronics, and Bocheng Co. also lead, with unlock values of 534 million yuan, 10.9 million yuan, and 2.4905 million yuan respectively [4] Group 4 - On August 20, 18 companies disclosed their stock repurchase progress, with 8 companies announcing new repurchase plans and 10 companies completing their repurchase plans [5] - Among the new repurchase announcements, three companies plan to repurchase over 10 million yuan, with the highest amounts being 200 million yuan, 160 million yuan, and 14.1146 million yuan respectively [5] - For completed repurchases, five companies have repurchased over 10 million yuan, with the highest amounts being 185 million yuan, 94.7017 million yuan, and 55.6813 million yuan respectively [5] Group 5 - A total of 118.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation on August 13 with an operation rate of 1.40% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continuous decline in bank deposit rates across various terms, reflecting broader trends in the banking sector and the impact of market reforms [1][2][3]. Deposit Rate Trends - The average deposit rates for different terms in June 2025 are as follows: 3-month at 0.949% (down 5.5 BP), 6-month at 1.156% (down 5.6 BP), 1-year at 1.287% (down 5.2 BP), 2-year at 1.372% (down 5.6 BP), 3-year at 1.695% (down 1.6 BP), and 5-year at 1.538% (down 3.5 BP) [2][3]. - The 5-year average rate has decreased by approximately 1 percentage point from 2.433% in June 2024 to 1.538% in June 2025 [2]. Market Reactions - Major state-owned banks adjusted their deposit rates on May 20, with the 1-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, prompting other banks to follow suit [3]. - The ongoing trend of declining deposit rates is attributed to the pressure on banks' net interest margins due to lower Loan Prime Rates (LPR) [3]. Structural Deposit Products - The average term for structured deposits in June 2025 is 103 days, with an average expected middle yield of 1.78% (down 7 BP) and an average expected maximum yield of 2.14% (down 11 BP) [4]. - Different types of banks show varying average terms and yields for structured deposits, with state-owned banks averaging 70 days and a maximum yield of 1.99% (down 19 BP) [4]. Performance by Linked Assets - For structured deposits linked to different assets, the average expected middle yield for currency-linked deposits is 1.77% (down 24 BP), while gold-linked deposits yield 1.78% (down 2 BP) [5]. - Deposits linked to indices, funds, and stocks show an increase in average expected middle yield to 2.00% (up 1 BP) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute indicates a continued decline in bank deposit rates, with medium to long-term rates entering the "1 era" and 3-month rates entering the "0 era" [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Trends - As of June 2025, the average interest rates for various term deposits are as follows: 3-month at 0.949%, 6-month at 1.156%, 1-year at 1.287%, 2-year at 1.372%, 3-year at 1.695%, and 5-year at 1.538% [2] - Compared to the previous month, the rates for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits have decreased by 5.5 BP, 5.6 BP, 5.2 BP, 5.6 BP, 1.6 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively [2] - The report also highlights that large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) have seen a decline in average rates across all terms, with the 3-month rate dropping by 5.96 BP and the 1-year rate by 8.39 BP [2] Group 2: Structured Deposits - In June 2025, the average term for RMB structured deposits was 103 days, an increase of 13 days from the previous month, while the average expected intermediate yield was 1.78%, down by 7 BP [3] - The average expected maximum yield for structured deposits was 2.14%, which decreased by 11 BP compared to the previous month [3] - Different types of banks showed varying average terms and yields for structured deposits, with state-owned banks at 70 days and an expected maximum yield of 1.99%, while foreign banks had an average term of 334 days and a maximum yield of 4.34% [4] Group 3: Performance by Underlying Assets - For structured deposits linked to foreign exchange, the average expected intermediate yield was 1.77%, down by 24 BP, while those linked to gold had a yield of 1.78%, down by 2 BP [4] - Structured deposits linked to indices, funds, and stocks saw an increase in average expected intermediate yield to 2.00%, with the maximum yield rising to 5.40%, an increase of 8 BP [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute indicates a continued decline in bank deposit rates, with medium to long-term rates entering the "1 era" and 3-month rates entering the "0 era" [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Trends - As of June 2025, the average deposit rates for various terms are as follows: 3-month at 0.949%, 6-month at 1.156%, 1-year at 1.287%, 2-year at 1.372%, 3-year at 1.695%, and 5-year at 1.538% [1][2] - The report shows a month-on-month decline in average rates across all terms, with 3-month rates down by 5.5 basis points, 6-month by 5.6 basis points, 1-year by 5.2 basis points, 2-year by 5.6 basis points, 3-year by 1.6 basis points, and 5-year by 3.5 basis points [2] Group 2: Large Certificate of Deposit Rates - For large certificates of deposit, the average rates in June 2025 are: 3-month at 1.179%, 6-month at 1.391%, 1-year at 1.477%, 2-year at 1.462%, 3-year at 1.768%, and 5-year at 1.700% [2] - All terms for large certificates of deposit also experienced a decline, with the 3-month rate down by 5.96 basis points, 6-month by 6.74 basis points, 1-year by 8.39 basis points, 2-year by 18.67 basis points, and 3-year by 30.01 basis points [2] Group 3: Structured Deposit Trends - The average term for RMB structured deposits in June 2025 is 103 days, an increase of 13 days from the previous month, with an average expected middle yield of 1.78%, down by 7 basis points [3] - Different types of banks show varying average terms for structured deposits, with state-owned banks at 70 days, joint-stock banks at 90 days, city commercial banks at 164 days, and foreign banks at 334 days [3] Group 4: Performance by Linked Assets - For structured deposits linked to different assets, the average expected middle yield for those linked to exchange rates is 1.77%, down by 24 basis points, while those linked to gold yield 1.78%, down by 2 basis points [4] - Structured deposits linked to indices, funds, and stocks show an average expected middle yield of 2.00%, which is an increase of 1 basis point, with the highest expected yield at 5.40%, up by 8 basis points [4]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for July 2025, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent with the levels set after a reduction in June 2025 [1] - Market expectations indicated a high probability of the LPR remaining stable due to unchanged policy rates and recovering economic data reducing the urgency for rate cuts [2] - The pricing mechanism for LPR remains stable, as the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate and reverse repurchase operation rate have not been adjusted, limiting the downward space for LPR [2] Group 2 - The economic policy is currently in an observation phase following the June LPR reduction, with the GDP growth rate for the first half of the year at 5.3%, leading to a decreased necessity for further rate cuts [3] - Commercial banks are experiencing pressure on net interest margins, which are at historical lows of 1.54%, limiting the motivation to compress interest spreads further [4] - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is constraining domestic rate cuts, especially with the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates [5] Group 3 - Mortgage rates remain low, with the average first-home loan rate at 3.90% and second-home loan rate at 4.81%, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] - The reduction in LPR has eased the repayment pressure for borrowers, with a typical monthly payment decrease of 54.32 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [7] - Current corporate loan rates are around 3.2%, indicating manageable financing costs for businesses [8] Group 4 - Short-term adjustments to the LPR are limited, with expectations of stability if economic data continues to improve in Q3 2025; however, a reserve requirement ratio cut is more likely than a rate cut [8] - There remains potential for a medium to long-term reduction in LPR if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts or if domestic demand weakens [8] - Regulatory measures may shift towards reducing non-interest costs and enhancing fiscal support to stimulate the economy [8]