文/ 中银证券全球首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 管涛 "十五五"规划将"扩大高水平开放"大幅前置，明确提出推进人民币国际化 与建议资本项目开放。金融开放具有市场超调和多重均衡特性，若缺乏深 层次改革配套，极易引发危机。借鉴新兴市场教训，紧扣外部挑战与美元 信用裂痕带来的机遇，我国亟需做强国内循环、增强科技创新、健全产权 保护、提升宏观治理、完善公司治理、夯实资本市场六大改革。必须坚持 改革与开放"双轮驱动"，动态评估改革进展以调整开放节奏，方能统筹发 展与安全，实现高水平开放行稳致远。 与"十四五"规划相比，"十五五"规划建议（下称《建议》）将"扩大高水平开放"的内容大幅前置，凸显了我国以开放促改革促发展的决心和勇气。同时， 在部署"扩大自主开放"时提出，要推进人民币国际化，提升资本项目开放水平。开放水平越高，对改革的促进作用越大；反过来，开放水平越高，对改革 的要求也就越高。根据《建议》对于"十五五"时期我国面对战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的发展环境的总体判断，以推进人民币国际 化为重要目标的高水平开放更需要与聚焦消除制约高质量发展体制机制障碍的深层次改革协调配套、整体推进，以更好 ...

金融开放即便没有严格的"条件论"和"次序论"，开放与改革也不能背离太远。 党的二十届四中全会紧紧围绕全面建成社会主义现代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，对未来五年发 展作出顶层设计和战略擘画，是乘势而上、接续推进中国式现代化建设的又一次总动员、总部署。全会 审议通过的《建议》是指导"十五五"时期经济社会发展的纲领性文件，其部署的以下重点领域、关键环 节的改革对于人民币国际化行稳致远至关重要。 一是做强国内循环体系。 与"十四五"规划相比，"十五五"规划建议（下称《建议》）将"扩大高水平开放"的内容大幅前置，凸显 了我国以开放促改革促发展的决心和勇气。同时，在部署"扩大自主开放"时提出，要推进人民币国际 化，提升资本项目开放水平。开放水平越高，对改革的促进作用越大；反过来，开放水平越高，对改革 的要求也就越高。根据《建议》对于"十五五"时期我国面对战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因 素增多的发展环境的总体判断，以推进人民币国际化为重要目标的高水平开放更需要与聚焦消除制约高 质量发展体制机制障碍的深层次改革协调配套、整体推进，以更好统筹发展和安全。 新兴市场危机大都缘于改革滞后 我国奉行渐进式对外开放，目前已 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant breakthrough in the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and capital account opening, highlighted by the launch of the CIPS system by South Africa's Standard Bank, marking a milestone for RMB cross-border payment networks in Africa [1][22] - The scale of foreign entities holding domestic RMB financial assets has reached 10.4 trillion yuan, indicating a growing acceptance of RMB in the international monetary system [3][11] - The article discusses the necessity of capital account opening to enhance the international acceptance of RMB, noting that the current level of capital account convertibility is approximately 60% [5][7] Group 2 - The article outlines the dual empowerment of capital opening and internationalization, suggesting that both elements mutually reinforce each other rather than one leading the other [12][14] - It highlights the importance of a balanced approach to capital account opening during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for over 80% of projects to be classified as "basically convertible" or "convertible" [14][28] - The optimization of channels for cross-border securities investment is noted as a crucial step, with the issuance of panda bonds expected to approach 200 billion yuan in 2024, providing more options for foreign entities to hold RMB assets [16][17] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the transformation of regulatory tools from quantity control and administrative approval to more market-oriented methods, enhancing the flexibility of capital account opening [19][28] - The expansion of the CIPS system's coverage, with multiple banks globally joining, is highlighted as a key infrastructure improvement facilitating RMB use in cross-border transactions [22][30] - Market-driven factors are identified as the core motivation for RMB internationalization, with real trade and investment demands under frameworks like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP supporting the growth of cross-border RMB transactions [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial opening during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting a more proactive approach compared to previous plans, particularly in promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhancing capital account openness [3][4]. Financial Opening Importance - Financial opening is deemed crucial for enhancing China's economic and financial security amid international competition, as China's GDP is projected to account for approximately 17% of the global total by 2024, while the Renminbi's share in global payments remains below 3% [3][4]. - The article argues that increasing financial openness is necessary to activate China's high savings rate and improve capital allocation efficiency, as China's total savings rate is higher compared to the US, EU, and Japan [4][17]. Preconditions for Financial Opening - Ensuring financial security is essential for advancing financial openness, as stable domestic macroeconomic conditions are closely linked to cross-border capital flows [5]. - Changes in macroeconomic factors, such as the relative positions of the Renminbi and US dollar exchange rates, create favorable conditions for further financial opening [5][6]. Policy Directions for Financial Opening - The article outlines potential policy directions for financial opening, focusing on both funding and asset dimensions [7]. - Hong Kong is expected to experience a dual expansion in funding and assets, supported by the central government's commitment to maintaining its unique status as an international financial center [8]. - Shanghai is highlighted as a key area for financial opening, with policies aimed at attracting foreign investment through a richer supply of financial products and enhancing the competitiveness of its international financial center [9].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," outlining the future monetary policy direction [1] - The report highlights significant external uncertainties and challenges to international economic trade order, while also acknowledging risks to domestic economic performance [1] - The third quarter GDP growth was reported at 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter, prompting the PBOC to emphasize the need for stronger domestic economic recovery [1] Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC signals the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy and the strengthening of policy execution and transmission [1] - There is a possibility of a further 10 basis points interest rate cut in the fourth quarter if domestic demand does not recover sufficiently, aimed at reducing financing costs and stabilizing overall demand [1] Support for Consumption - The report introduces measures to support personal credit repair, which is seen as a continuation and deepening of financial support for consumption system construction [1] Renminbi Internationalization - The PBOC's stance on Renminbi internationalization is increasingly positive, identifying "capital account opening" and "cross-border payments" as key strategies [1] Structural Optimization - The PBOC is focusing on the internal coordination of the interest rate system, indicating a shift in monetary policy from total volume control to a dual emphasis on structural optimization and effective transmission [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 12, 2025, equity index futures declined while CGB futures rose; commodity futures showed mixed performance, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The PBOC will strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, innovate financial tools, promote RMB internationalization, and raise the level of capital account liberalization. The CSRC will strengthen strategic capacity reserves and stabilization mechanism construction to enhance the intrinsic stability of the capital market [34][35][38]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - Financial futures: IH gained 0.3%, IC and IM both fell 0.4%; TL rose 0.1%. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were silver, tin and crude oil. Silver advanced 2.0% with open interest increasing 0.8% month - on - month; tin climbed 1.8% with open interest up 12.1% month - on - month; crude oil rose 1.5% while open interest decreased 4.3% month - on - month. The top three decliners were SCFIS（Europe）, eggs and Chinese jujube. SCFIS（Europe）dropped 3.4% with open interest falling 16.1% month - on - month; eggs slid 3.3% as open interest decreased 11.6% month - on - month; Chinese jujube declined 2.0% while open interest increased 1.5% month - on - month [9][10][11]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Tin (锡) - On November 12th, tin rose 1.8% to 292,440 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions are continuous. It's expected that Wa State's average monthly output will only increase to around 1,000 metal tons by the end of the year. Tight supply provides strong support for the bottom of tin prices [15][16][17]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On November 12th, crude oil rose 1.5% to 466.2 yuan/barrel. Supply pressure persists in the real sector, while OPEC+ has become cautious about increasing production in the expected sector, leading to short - term volatility. Pay attention to the actual output reduction of Russian oil in mid - to - late November [20][21][22]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop (下跌品种) 3.1.3.1 Glass (玻璃) - On November 12th, glass fell 1.2% to 1,049 yuan/ton. There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but midstream and downstream inventories are neutral to high. If there are no more cold repairs before the end of the year, prices may fluctuate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed [28][29][31]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - The PBOC released the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025. It will balance multiple relationships, strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and sustain efforts to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations [34][35]. 3.2.2 Industry News (行业要闻) - The PBOC will proactively and steadily prevent and resolve financial risks, expand and enrich the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, innovate financial tools, and maintain the stable operation of financial markets. It will also accelerate the construction of financial market systems and high - level opening - up, promote RMB internationalization, and raise the level of capital account liberalization. The CSRC will deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing, and strive to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [35][36][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5762, down 0.41%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5580, down 20 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks. [2] - On November 12, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5490, down 0.83%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5240, down 30 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,762.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,490.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00. [2] - The SM futures contract position was 582,481.00 lots, up 2096.00; the SF futures contract position was 379,354.00 lots, up 20468.00. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 46,046.00 lots, up 3175.00; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 25,289.00 lots, up 4776.00. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 56.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 26.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. [2] - The SM warehouse receipt was 18,263.00; the SF warehouse receipt was - 20.00. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,580.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 144.00. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5580.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,240.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00. [2] - The manganese - silicon index average was 5595.00 yuan/ton, down 51.00; the SF main contract basis was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 32.00. [2] - The SM main contract basis was - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 439.70 million tons, up 8.30. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 40.24%, down 2.75; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 201,880.00 tons, down 5845.00; the ferrosilicon supply was 114,100.00 tons, up 900.00. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 319,500.00 tons, up 5000.00; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 78,690.00 tons, up 6700.00. [2] - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121113.00 tons, down 3379.00; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19813.70 tons, down 461.60. [2] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80. [2] - The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are advancing. It is estimated that during the winter shutdown and production cut period, Xinjiang will reduce the production of construction steel by about 2 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total production of construction steel in Xinjiang in 2025. [2] - The central bank pointed out in the Third - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report that it will strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, study and implement policies to support individuals in repairing their credit, promote the internationalization of the RMB, and improve the level of capital account opening. [2] - The current RMB loan balance in China has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. As the base increases, the growth rate of financial aggregates will decline in the future, which is in line with China's economic transformation from high - speed growth to high - quality development. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually淡化 its focus on quantitative targets. [2] - The central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to changes in the economic and financial situation, and closely monitor changes in the monetary policies of major overseas central banks, and strengthen the analysis and monitoring of the supply and demand of bank system liquidity and changes in the financial market. [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For manganese - silicon, on November 12, the contract price decreased, the spot price decreased, the inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly from a high level, the inventory increased for 6 consecutive weeks, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 83,000 tons, and the demand for hot metal decreased seasonally. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 190 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 280 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] - For ferrosilicon, on November 12, the contract price decreased, the spot price decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory rebounded significantly this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 390 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 580 yuan/ton. [2]

Policy Changes - The focus of monetary policy has shifted back to "stabilizing growth," indicating a renewed emphasis on economic expansion[1] - The phrase "maintain policy continuity and stability" was replaced with "do a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," suggesting a cautious approach to policy strength[1] Economic Assessment - GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, making the annual target of 5% achievable, but Q3 growth slowed to 4.8%, necessitating measures to prevent further economic deceleration[1][2] - The external environment is described as having "many unstable and uncertain factors," while domestic demand needs to be further strengthened[2] Credit and Financing - The report maintains a steady credit support stance, emphasizing "keeping social financing conditions relatively loose" without increasing total credit supply[3] - New loans decreased by 851.2 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development[3] Structural Support - The report highlights the importance of structural tools, focusing on key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, and support for small and micro enterprises[4] - Specific measures include enhancing financial support for county-level economic development and expanding financial supply in the consumption sector[4] Interest Rates and Costs - The report reiterates the goal of reducing financing costs, with an emphasis on lowering bank liability costs to support a decrease in overall financing costs[5] - Banks are urged to avoid issuing loans with post-tax interest rates lower than the yield on government bonds of the same maturity[5] Capital Account and Exchange Rate - The report aims to enhance the level of capital account openness and promote the internationalization of the renminbi, removing previous cautious language[6] - The focus has shifted to maintaining exchange rate flexibility and strengthening market expectations, reflecting a stable renminbi exchange rate[6] Inflation and Demand - The report emphasizes that price levels are influenced by multiple factors, with supply-demand relationships being primary, and calls for coordinated macro policies to stimulate effective demand[6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the acceleration of financial market system construction and high-level opening-up [1] Group 1: Financial Market Development - The report advocates for the development of a "Technology Board" in the bond market, utilizing risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds to support more private technology enterprises and private equity investment institutions in bond financing [1] - It highlights the need to improve the legal framework for the bond market and promote the construction of corporate bond regulations [1] - The report calls for the acceleration of multi-tiered bond market development and the continuous expansion and standardization of over-the-counter bond business [1] Group 2: Risk Monitoring and Regulation - There is a focus on the continuous regulation of issuance pricing, underwriting, and market-making behaviors, along with strengthening risk monitoring in key sectors and industries [1] Group 3: Internationalization and Currency Use - The report promotes the high-quality development of the panda bond market and aims to advance the internationalization of the Renminbi, enhancing the level of capital account openness [1] - It proposes the initiation of high-level opening-up pilot projects for cross-border trade and investment, further expanding the use of Renminbi in cross-border transactions and deepening foreign currency cooperation [1] - The development of the offshore Renminbi market is also emphasized [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to accelerate the construction of financial market systems and enhance high-level openness to the outside world [1] Group 1: Financial Market Development - The PBOC plans to significantly develop the bond market, particularly focusing on a "Technology Board" to support private technology enterprises and private equity investment institutions in issuing bonds for financing [1] - There will be efforts to improve the legal framework of the bond market and promote the development of corporate bond legislation [1] - The PBOC intends to accelerate the development of a multi-tiered bond market and continue to expand and regulate over-the-counter bond business [1] Group 2: Risk Monitoring and Compliance - The central bank will continue to standardize issuance pricing, underwriting, and market-making behaviors while enhancing risk monitoring in key sectors and industries [1] Group 3: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The PBOC is focused on promoting the high-quality development of the panda bond market and advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] - There will be initiatives to enhance the openness of capital accounts and conduct high-level pilot projects for cross-border trade and investment [1] - The central bank aims to further expand the use of the Renminbi in cross-border trade and investment, deepen foreign currency cooperation, and develop the offshore Renminbi market [1]