上 市 公 司 农林牧渔 2025 年 09 月 24 日 康农种业 (837403) ——育繁推一体化企业，品种制胜，扩大全国销售版图 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 23.93 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 55.97/8.03 | | 市净率 | 4.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.84 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 1,389 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,821.83/13,119.82 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.85 | | 资产负债率% | 39.21 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 99/58 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01-23 02-23 03-23 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 0% 200% ...

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's seed segment sales revenue decreased compared to the same period last year due to oversupply in the domestic corn seed market and increased competition [2] - The pesticide segment also saw a decline, primarily due to a strategic shift to reduce low-margin product sales and improve safety and environmental production standards [2] - Fertilizer business revenue dropped due to climate change affecting planting seasons, leading to delayed fertilizer demand [2] Strategic Development - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are a key development strategy, focusing on high-quality targets in the corn and rice seed industries [3] - The company is analyzing potential acquisition targets and plans to conduct M&A activities in the near future [3][7] - The company has committed to increasing investment in research and development, maintaining an annual investment intensity of over 8% [8] Capital Increase and Stock Performance - The pricing benchmark for the upcoming capital increase is set at 5.91 CNY per share, based on the average stock price over the 20 trading days prior to the board meeting on November 14, 2024 [4] - The company acknowledges that its stock price is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and market sentiment, and aims to enhance company value through internal growth and external M&A [10][20] Research and Innovation - The company is focusing on integrating conventional, biological, and information technologies to enhance the competitiveness of its seed varieties [8][9] - It is actively pursuing partnerships with core biotechnology firms and research institutions to accelerate the development of genetically modified corn varieties [9] Market Position and Challenges - The company holds a market share of only 15% in the national seed industry, significantly lower than the 60% share held by the top ten global seed companies [7] - The fragmented nature of the seed industry presents challenges for consolidation and growth, with a need for policies to protect intellectual property and support leading enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaging in various sectors including corn and rice industries, mergers and acquisitions, agricultural chemicals, and a capital increase project, showcasing growth potential and strategic development plans [1][4][5][6]. Group 1: Corn Industry - The corn industry is experiencing revenue growth with multiple varieties such as Tie 391K, Tie 391, Fengle 520, and WK1505 being key contributors [2]. - Tie 391K, one of the first approved transgenic corn varieties in China, received its certification in December 2023 and has a significant promotion area in Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei [2]. - Fengle 520 is promoted in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, while WK1505 has shown excellent performance in Northeast China, setting new records for the company's new variety promotion [2]. Group 2: Rice Industry - The rice industry is focusing on differentiated and specialized development, enhancing its marketing network and regional resource integration [3]. - Sales of the Le You series, represented by Le You 966, and the Xiang Liang You series, represented by Xiang Liang You 676, are continuously increasing, with positive market feedback for other varieties [3]. Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions are a primary development strategy for the company, targeting high-quality acquisition candidates in the fragmented seed industry [4]. - The company plans to pursue acquisitions in the corn seed market across Huang-Huai-Hai, Southwest, and Northwest regions, as well as in the rice seed market in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemicals business experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 due to various factors, including reduced production of raw materials and increased fixed costs [5]. - The company aims to enhance profitability by optimizing product structure and exploring market potential [5]. Group 5: Capital Increase Project - The company has received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for a specific stock issuance project, which is currently under review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [6]. - The company is responding to inquiries from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is updating its semi-annual report data [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [20] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in both revenue and profit due to low grain prices and abnormal weather conditions, with a projected revenue of 369 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.41%, and a net profit of 35 million yuan, down 33.42% year-on-year [4][9] - The corn seed business has been particularly affected, generating revenue of 338 million yuan, a decrease of 12.04% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 29.08%, an increase of 3.93 percentage points [10][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 369 million yuan, down 9.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 35 million yuan, down 33.42% year-on-year [4][9] - The corn business revenue was 338 million yuan, a decrease of 12.04% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.08%, up 3.93 percentage points [10] Business Segments - The rice business achieved revenue of 9.328 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.50% - The vegetable seed business generated revenue of 9.9884 million yuan, down 6.98% year-on-year - The wheat business saw revenue of 3.0722 million yuan, a significant increase of 118.01% year-on-year [10] Research and Development - The company is actively investing in research and development, with an R&D expenditure of 43 million yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 13.72% year-on-year [11] - The company is advancing its biotechnology research center and has made significant progress in breeding and innovation, with six genetically modified corn varieties being promoted [11] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.29 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.60%, 9.85%, and 18.02% respectively - Net profit projections for the same period are 177 million yuan, 187 million yuan, and 206 million yuan, with growth rates of 212.06%, 5.71%, and 10.03% respectively [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 (25H1) was 2.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.11%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -164 million yuan, down 247.26% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit improved by 39.13% year-on-year to -157 million yuan [1]. - The rice seed segment showed resilience with a revenue of 779 million yuan in 25H1, a decline of 6.98%, but with a gross margin of 42.20%, up 2.65 percentage points from the previous year. The company is focusing on high-quality products and expanding new varieties to maintain its industry leadership [2]. - The corn seed segment faced challenges, with a revenue of 907 million yuan in 25H1, down 26.14%. However, the overseas business in Brazil showed a revenue increase of 2.11% to 868 million yuan, with a significant reduction in net loss by 59.13% due to operational improvements and cost reductions [2]. - The company completed a 1.2 billion yuan capital increase in the first half of 2025, reducing its debt ratio by 6.46% compared to the beginning of the year. Financial expenses decreased by 7.33% year-on-year, contributing to improved cash flow from operations, which increased by 52.66% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is recognized for its leading position in research and breeding, with significant breakthroughs in biotechnology for corn seeds, including the development of new varieties in Brazil [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company reported a revenue of 2.166 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of -164 million yuan, a decline of 247.26% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit improved by 39.13% to -157 million yuan [1]. - The rice seed segment generated 779 million yuan in revenue, down 6.98%, but with a gross margin of 42.20%, an increase of 2.65 percentage points [2]. - The corn seed segment's revenue was 907 million yuan, down 26.14%, while the overseas business in Brazil saw a revenue increase of 2.11% to 868 million yuan [2]. Capital Management - The company completed a 1.2 billion yuan capital increase, reducing its debt ratio by 6.46% from the beginning of the year. Financial expenses decreased by 7.33% year-on-year, and cash flow from operations improved by 52.66% year-on-year [2][3]. Research and Development - The company has a strong research and breeding capability, with advancements in biotechnology for corn seeds and the introduction of new rice varieties [3].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance this year, with significant gains in various related stocks, while other sectors like industrial metals and communication devices have faced declines [2][3][6]. Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks have performed strongly, with the Helicobacter pylori concept leading the gains. Notable stocks include Kintor Pharmaceutical, which hit a 20% limit up, and *ST Sailong, which achieved 13 limit ups in 17 trading days [3]. - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector also saw a comprehensive rise, with indices related to innovative drugs and healthcare showing significant increases. The innovative drug index rose nearly 11% year-to-date, with 6 stocks gaining over 100% [6]. - Major pharmaceutical companies are gaining international recognition for their innovative drug development capabilities, indicating a competitive edge in the global market [7]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector saw a collective rise, with stocks in fisheries, pet economy, and food processing experiencing significant gains. Companies like Baolingbao and Xiyang Food reached their daily limit up [8]. - The food processing industry is expected to expand significantly, with a projected global market size of 26.4 trillion yuan by 2029, driven by health-conscious consumer trends [10]. - Consumption stimulus policies in China, particularly in maternal and infant care, are boosting demand in related sectors, attracting institutional attention [11]. Company Highlights - Lihai Food reported strong sales performance for its UHT product line, with expected sales nearing 500 million yuan in 2024, marking a nearly twofold increase year-on-year [11]. - Zhongnong Lihua announced a significant increase in cash dividends, with a projected payout ratio of 59.48% for 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [12]. - The vitamin, NMN concept, and biopharmaceutical sectors also saw strong activity, with companies like Huason Pharmaceutical and Yuheng Pharmaceutical achieving limit up [13].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.709 billion CNY and a net profit of 114 million CNY, with steady growth in seed business revenue and sales [2] - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 87.62% year-on-year, with non-recurring net profit being negative [5] Group 2: Challenges and Responses - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased competition, higher operating costs, and the need for credit impairment provisions [1] - The company plans to enhance profitability through product structure optimization, cost control, and brand management [2] Group 3: Growth Strategies - The company aims to improve seed business gross margins by focusing on differentiated product advantages and enhancing production efficiency [2] - Future growth points include strengthening R&D innovation, expanding overseas markets, and improving marketing efforts [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Industry Outlook - The seed industry is facing pressure from low grain prices and high inventory levels, leading to decreased profitability across the sector [4] - The company is committed to enhancing its competitive edge through industry chain integration and potential mergers or collaborations [5] Group 5: Product Development and Innovation - The company is actively involved in the development of transgenic corn varieties, with five new varieties currently under review [6] - A patented method for creating broad-spectrum disease-resistant transgenic corn has been developed, which is expected to have significant application value [6] Group 6: Sales and Distribution - The company is optimizing its sales network by diversifying sales channels, including online platforms and partnerships with agricultural cooperatives [6] - The fastest-growing segments are grain and silage feed, with a revenue growth of 44.22% in 2024, indicating a focus on these areas for future resource allocation [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30][36] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in gross margin and an increase in impairment provisions, leading to a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][9] - The company is expected to benefit from its leading position in rice seed business and rapid expansion in corn seed business, with a forecasted net profit of 2.0/2.4/2.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][30][36] - The stock is considered to have a reasonable valuation range of 10.4-11.4 yuan, representing a premium of approximately 10-20% over the current stock price [30][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%, primarily driven by growth in grain and seed business [1][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 114 million yuan, a significant decline of 58.23% year-on-year, mainly due to lower gross margins and increased impairment provisions [1][9] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 835 million yuan, up 24.13% year-on-year, but net profit dropped to 2 million yuan, down 87.62% year-on-year [1][9] Business Segments - The rice seed segment generated revenue of 1.858 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.67% increase, but gross margin decreased to 39.81%, down 3.00 percentage points [2][26] - The corn seed segment saw revenue of 589 million yuan, a 20.43% increase, with gross margin improving to 33.15%, up 7.87 percentage points [2][26] - The order grain business revenue increased by 44.54% to 1.022 billion yuan, but gross margin fell to 1.56%, down 3.33 percentage points [2][26] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 13.48%, down 6.26 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of -2.02%, down 4.51 percentage points [2][18] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was -777 million yuan, representing -93.00% of operating revenue [3][20] - Inventory days stood at 360 days, while accounts receivable turnover days were 69 days [3][20] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain growth in its rice seed business, with projected revenues of 1.951 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 5.0% growth [27][24] - The corn seed business is anticipated to generate revenues of 648 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.0% [24][27] - The order grain business is forecasted to achieve revenues of 1.175 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining a stable growth trajectory [24][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The corn seed market is experiencing a downturn, leading to short-term pressure on revenue and profits. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.566 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.13% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114 million yuan, down 43.08% year-on-year. Excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit was -289 million yuan, a significant decline of 159.31% year-on-year [1][8] - The hybrid rice seed business has seen growth in both volume and profit due to innovation and business synergy, with revenue reaching 2.008 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 12.97% year-on-year [2] - The company is adjusting production and reducing seed inventory, resulting in improved inventory turnover efficiency. The inventory turnover days decreased by approximately 20 days year-on-year to 168.6 days in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 85.66 billion yuan, down 7.13% year-on-year, primarily due to the global grain price decline affecting corn seed sales [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 1.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.08% year-on-year, with significant losses attributed to reduced main business income and increased financial expenses due to exchange rate fluctuations [1][8] Segment Performance - The corn seed segment generated revenue of 50.21 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 16.74% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.63%, down 5.38 percentage points [2] - The hybrid rice seed segment achieved revenue of 20.08 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 12.97% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.60%, up 1.23 percentage points [2] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 200 million yuan and 470 million yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 370 million yuan and 620 million yuan [19] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.2 yuan, 0.4 yuan, and 0.5 yuan, respectively [19] Market Position and Future Outlook - As a leading player in the domestic corn seed market, the company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of genetically modified corn, which may lead to a rebound in both volume and profit in the future [19]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qianyin Gaoke, reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by increased sales in its seed business, particularly in rice and corn [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%, with a net profit of 114 million yuan [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 835 million yuan, up 24.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.197 million yuan [2]. - The company aims to reach a revenue target of 5 billion yuan and a net profit of 300 million yuan for 2025 [2]. Seed Business Overview - The rice seed sales revenue reached 1.858 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 5.67%, with a total sales volume of 216 million kilograms, up nearly 7% [3]. - The corn seed segment generated a revenue of 589 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 20.43% increase, with a gross margin of 33.15% [4]. Innovation and Patents - The company received a national patent for a method of creating broadly resistant transgenic corn, marking a significant advancement in disease-resistant crop development [5]. - In 2024, 59 new rice varieties and 13 new corn varieties were approved, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [3][4]. International Market Development - In 2024, the company exported 19.3735 million kilograms of seeds, a 74.80% increase year-on-year, generating an overseas revenue of 492 million yuan, up 72.39% [6][7]. - The company is actively pursuing international breeding collaborations to expand its global market presence [7]. Audit and Financial Health - The company maintains that its accounts receivable and inventory valuations are accurate, and it plans to take measures to recover outstanding receivables over the next two years [8]. - The Q1 2025 report indicated a debt ratio of 62.94%, with a gross margin of 13.48% [8].