Core Insights - The report highlights the integrated development of Kangnong Agriculture, focusing on hybrid corn seed production, breeding, and promotion, achieving a revenue CAGR of 30.5% and a profit CAGR of 42.1% from 2022 to 2024 [2][10] - The industry is experiencing a demand for high-yield and quality varieties, with a projected tight balance in corn supply and demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to stable corn prices and positive planting enthusiasm among farmers [2][10] - Kangnong's flagship product, Kangnong Yu 8009, is expected to drive growth, with sales projections indicating significant volume increases in the coming years [2][10] Company Overview - Kangnong Agriculture specializes in hybrid corn seeds and has streamlined its operations across breeding, propagation, and promotion since 2017 [2][10] - The company has successfully entered new markets, including the Huanghuaihai summer sowing area and northern spring sowing area, which have become new growth drivers [2][10] Industry Analysis - The seed market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected supply-demand ratio of 175% for the 2024/25 season, indicating a high inventory situation that may take 2-3 years to improve [2][10] - High-quality varieties are favored in the market, commanding better price premiums, while competition among homogeneous varieties remains intense, putting pressure on prices [2][10] Short-term Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to achieve both revenue growth and cost reduction, with expectations of increased gross margins due to self-propagation models [2][10] - The anticipated gross margin for 2025 is projected to improve by 1.2-5.0 percentage points based on sensitivity analysis [2][10] Long-term Strategy - Kangnong plans to expand its national sales footprint, leveraging its market position in the Southwest and introducing diverse product offerings in the Huanghuaihai and Northeast markets [2][10] - The company has a robust pipeline for transgenic varieties, with a strategic rollout across different regions [2][10] Investment Rating and Valuation - The report forecasts Kangnong's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.96 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.50 billion respectively, with a target market capitalization of 4.5 billion, indicating a potential upside of 90% from the current closing price [2][10] - The report assigns a "Buy" rating based on the company's growth potential and favorable market conditions [2][10]

Core Insights - The report focuses on Kangnong Agriculture (837403), which specializes in hybrid corn seeds and has integrated breeding, propagation, and promotion since 2017, leading to significant growth in new markets [3][11] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 30.5% and a profit CAGR of 42.1% from 2022 to 2024, driven by the successful launch of its main product, Kangnong Yu 8009 [3][11] - The report highlights the favorable market conditions for high-yield and quality seed varieties, with a predicted stable corn price and strong planting enthusiasm among farmers [3][11] Company Overview - Kangnong Agriculture has established a comprehensive development model that connects breeding, propagation, and promotion, enhancing its market competitiveness [3][11] - The company has successfully entered new markets in the Huanghuaihai summer sowing area and the northern spring sowing area, which have become new growth drivers [3][11] Industry Analysis - The seed market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a supply-demand ratio of 175% expected for the 2024/25 season, indicating a high inventory situation that may take 2-3 years to improve [3][11] - High-quality seed varieties are favored in the market, commanding better premiums, while competition among homogeneous varieties remains intense, leading to price pressures [3][11] Short-term Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to increase revenue while reducing costs, with Kangnong Yu 8009 expected to lead growth [3][11] - The self-propagation model is anticipated to lower costs, with a projected gross margin increase of 1.2-5.0 percentage points in 2025 based on sensitivity analysis [3][11] Long-term Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its national sales footprint, leveraging its market position in the southwest and introducing diverse product combinations in the Huanghuaihai market [3][11] - Kangnong Agriculture has a robust pipeline of transgenic varieties, with a structured approach to commercialization across different regions [3][11] Investment Rating and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.96 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.50 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25, 19, and 16 times [3][11] - A target market capitalization of 45 billion is set for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 90% from the closing price on September 25, 2023, with a "Buy" rating assigned [3][11] Catalysts for Stock Performance - Key catalysts include exceeding expectations in contract liabilities for Q3 2025, higher-than-expected sales of Kangnong Yu 8009, and progress in promoting high-protein corn [3][11]

上 市 公 司 农林牧渔 2025 年 09 月 24 日 康农种业 (837403) ——育繁推一体化企业，品种制胜，扩大全国销售版图 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 23.93 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 55.97/8.03 | | 市净率 | 4.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.84 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 1,389 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,821.83/13,119.82 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.85 | | 资产负债率% | 39.21 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 99/58 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01-23 02-23 03-23 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 0% 200% ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of approximately 45.87 million, a year-on-year decline of 2.68%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.22% to about 8.69 million [1] Revenue Breakdown - The sales revenue from hybrid corn seeds was 42.72 million, down 5.12% year-on-year, primarily due to the earlier timing of the Lunar New Year in 2025, which led to a reduction in shipment volume in January [1] - The company did not realize sales revenue from traditional Chinese medicine seedlings and konjac seeds in the first half of 2025, attributed to the downtrend in these industries and a strategic focus on hybrid corn seed business [1] - Other business revenue increased by 56.37% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in contract breeding area for external units, resulting in higher income from breeding services [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in contract liabilities, up 410% year-on-year, indicating strong market acceptance of its corn seed products [6] - In H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 45.87 million yuan, a decrease of 2.68% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.69 million yuan, an increase of 12.22% year-on-year [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market and enhancing its domestic "big product" strategy, with successful collaborations and research advancements [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of August 20, 2025, was 25.28 yuan, with a one-year high of 55.97 yuan and a low of 7.96 yuan [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 39.46%, an increase of 13.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s contract liabilities reached 110 million yuan, reflecting a strong pre-sale performance for the 2025-2026 sales season [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 93 million, 114 million, and 139 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.1, 22.0, and 18.1 [6][7] - Revenue is expected to grow from 431 million yuan in 2025 to 687 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24.27% [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a new international division to expand its market reach, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [6] - Collaborations with ten research institutions have led to significant advancements in seed variety development [6]

Industry Overview - The global seed industry has a high concentration, with a CR5 of 52% in 2021, while China's seed industry CR5 is only 17%, indicating significant room for improvement[4] - Major grain prices in China have shown a slight increase, with corn prices up by 11.9%, while soybean prices decreased by 0.7%, and wheat prices increased by 2.9% as of May 23, 2025[4] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) - Three batches of genetically modified corn varieties have been approved for commercialization, totaling 161 varieties, with significant advantages for leading companies[4][16] - The domestic market for genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with companies like Kangnong Seed focusing on high-yield and resilient hybrid corn varieties[19] Company Performance - Kangnong Seed's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 337 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.80%, with a net profit of approximately 82.60 million yuan and gross/net profit margins of 35.79% and 24.72%, respectively[30] - The company's three-year CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2021 to 2024 is 33.45% and 24.53%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential[30] Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange consumer service sector decreased from 57.9X to 53.2X, reflecting a broader market trend[34] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector fell from 119.36 billion yuan to 116.79 billion yuan during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical data inaccuracies, which could impact the overall market performance[52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30][36] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in gross margin and an increase in impairment provisions, leading to a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][9] - The company is expected to benefit from its leading position in rice seed business and rapid expansion in corn seed business, with a forecasted net profit of 2.0/2.4/2.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][30][36] - The stock is considered to have a reasonable valuation range of 10.4-11.4 yuan, representing a premium of approximately 10-20% over the current stock price [30][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%, primarily driven by growth in grain and seed business [1][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 114 million yuan, a significant decline of 58.23% year-on-year, mainly due to lower gross margins and increased impairment provisions [1][9] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 835 million yuan, up 24.13% year-on-year, but net profit dropped to 2 million yuan, down 87.62% year-on-year [1][9] Business Segments - The rice seed segment generated revenue of 1.858 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.67% increase, but gross margin decreased to 39.81%, down 3.00 percentage points [2][26] - The corn seed segment saw revenue of 589 million yuan, a 20.43% increase, with gross margin improving to 33.15%, up 7.87 percentage points [2][26] - The order grain business revenue increased by 44.54% to 1.022 billion yuan, but gross margin fell to 1.56%, down 3.33 percentage points [2][26] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 13.48%, down 6.26 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of -2.02%, down 4.51 percentage points [2][18] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was -777 million yuan, representing -93.00% of operating revenue [3][20] - Inventory days stood at 360 days, while accounts receivable turnover days were 69 days [3][20] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain growth in its rice seed business, with projected revenues of 1.951 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 5.0% growth [27][24] - The corn seed business is anticipated to generate revenues of 648 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.0% [24][27] - The order grain business is forecasted to achieve revenues of 1.175 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining a stable growth trajectory [24][27]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.77% in 2024, but net profit decreased by 58.23% due to various factors including declining seed gross margins and increased operating expenses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, up from the previous year, primarily driven by increased seed exports and domestic corn seed sales [2][3] - The company's net profit for 2024 was 114 million yuan, a significant decline of 58.23% compared to the previous year, resulting in a decrease of 160 million yuan [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - The largest revenue source was rice seed sales, generating 1.858 billion yuan, a growth of 5.67% year-on-year [2] - Corn seed sales reached 589 million yuan, marking a 20.43% increase [2] - The fastest growth came from order grain and silage feed, which generated 1.191 billion yuan, up 44.22% [2] Profitability Issues - The decline in net profit was attributed to three main factors: reduced gross margins in seed business due to increased competition, higher research and management expenses, and significant impairment losses [3][4] - The company reported total impairment losses of 238 million yuan, including credit impairment losses on receivables and inventory write-downs [3][4] Audit Concerns - The audit firm KPMG issued a qualified opinion on the financial statements due to two key issues: the existence and valuation of certain receivables and the accuracy of inventory valuation [1][5] - The first issue involved receivables related to grain sales, where the company failed to provide sufficient evidence for the existence and accuracy of the amounts [5][6] - The second issue pertained to the valuation of inventory, where the company could not substantiate its sales forecasts for corn seed inventory, leading to questions about the adequacy of inventory write-downs [7][8] Management Response - The company plans to assign personnel to pursue the collection of receivables from three grain sales companies and aims to recover the amounts within two years [8] - For the corn seed inventory, the company intends to implement various measures to ensure sales over the next two years [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.77% in 2024, but net profit decreased by 58.23% due to various factors including declining seed gross margins and increased operating expenses [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, up from the previous year, primarily driven by increased seed exports and domestic corn seed sales [5][6]. - The sales revenue from rice seeds was 1.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.67%, while corn seed sales reached 589 million yuan, growing by 20.43% [5]. - The fastest growth came from order grain and silage feed, which generated 1.191 billion yuan, marking a 44.22% increase [5]. Profitability Issues - The company reported a net profit of 114 million yuan, down 58.23% from the previous year, resulting in a decrease of 160 million yuan [1][6]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to three main factors: reduced gross margins in seed business, increased R&D and operating expenses, and significant impairment losses [6][7]. Impairment Losses - The total impairment losses for the year amounted to 238 million yuan, which significantly impacted the net profit [6][7]. - Specific impairment losses included 85.6686 million yuan for accounts receivable, 21.6848 million yuan for other receivables, and 80.7006 million yuan for inventory [6][7]. Audit Concerns - The company's financial statements received a qualified opinion from the auditing firm due to two key issues: the existence and accuracy of certain receivables and the valuation of inventory [7][8]. - The first issue involved accounts receivable related to grain sales, where the company could not confirm the existence and accuracy of 32.7759 million yuan in receivables [7][8]. - The second issue pertained to the valuation of inventory, where the company failed to provide sufficient evidence to support its sales forecasts for corn seed inventory [8][9]. Management Response - The company plans to actively pursue the collection of receivables from three grain sales companies and aims to recover the amounts within two years [9]. - For the corn seed inventory, the company intends to implement various measures to ensure sales within the next two years [9].

证券简称： 康农种业 证券代码： 837403 湖北省宜昌市长阳经济开发区长阳大道 553 号 湖北康农种业股份有限公司 湖北康农种业股份有限公司招股说明书（申报稿） 本公司的发行申请尚未经中国证监会注册。本招股说明书申报稿不具有据以发行股票的法律效 力，投资者应当以正式公告的招股说明书全文作为投资决定的依据。 本次股票发行后拟在北京证券交易所上市，该市场具有较高的投资风险。北京证券交易所主要 服务创新型中小企业，上市公司具有经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较 大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解北京证券交易所市场的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审 慎作出投资决定。 保荐机构（主承销商） （北京市西城区武定侯街 6 号卓著中心 10 层） 二零二三年九月 中国证监会和北京证券交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对注册申 请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其对发行人的盈利能力、 投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证。任何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实 陈述。 根据《证券法》的规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行人自行负 责；投资者自 ...