【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：供需宽松下震荡，远月价格或存低估 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 棉花：15 日新疆阿克苏区域机采棉 3129B 含杂 2.7%以内对应 2601 合约疆内 库销售基差在 910-980 元/吨,提货价在 14750-14900 元/吨，较上周五上涨 50 元/吨左右。北疆博州区域纺企采购 31 级双 29 含杂 2.7%以内机采新棉疆内库 2601 合约基差成交价 980-1080 元/吨，提货价在 14900-15100 元/吨，较前一日 上涨 50-100 元/吨。 现货宽松下，远月种植面积结构调整引发盘面出现一定反弹，但是 2026 年 度的减产预期更多在现货面会体现在 10 月后，而近月可能上行空间仍有较大限 制，今天盘面冲高回落更是印证了上方压力，预估震荡偏强为主。 1 122441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、泛糖科技 、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to have a slightly weak and volatile short - term trend due to supply pressure, with limited adjustment range, waiting for time to resolve the situation. The USDA report is relatively bearish, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing rapidly [1]. - Sugar is under pressure. With more sugar mills starting production and import pressure, if there is no continuous positive news in the syrup and premixed powder import segment, the market may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the October import data of syrup and premixed powder [1]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 65.44 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.3% to 13,395 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 6,347 to 565,000. The 3128B spot price index was 14,280 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan. The market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation affecting market sentiment. The USDA report increased the expected cotton production in the world, China, and Brazil. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is significant, and the cotton commercial inventory is rising rapidly [1]. - **Sugar**: In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the total import was 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% increase. The spot prices in different regions were adjusted downwards. India's new sugar production is progressing steadily, and the market sentiment is suppressed by the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's production [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 with no change, the main contract basis was 1394, up 38. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,558 yuan per ton, down 21, and the national spot price was 14,789 yuan per ton, down 12 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 54, down 8. Some data sources for sugar were missing [2]. 3. Market Information - On November 18, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10 to 4386, and the valid forecasts were 928. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [2][3]. - On November 18, the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11 to 8611, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, are presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weak US dollar boosts commodity prices, and soft commodities receive short - term support. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5750.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5725.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closes at 14.47, with a change of - 3.34%. US cotton closes at 64.65, with a change of 0.73% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 7795.0, with a change of - 4.76%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2488.0, with a change of - 0.60% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills was postponed. The impact on sugar beet production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, major sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14000 to 16000 yuan [3] Data Quick View Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars) was 14.97 on October 26, 2025, and 14.47 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 3.34% - US cotton (in dollars) was 64.18 on October 26, 2025, and 64.65 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.73% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning) was 5750.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming) was 5730.0 on October 24, 2025, and 5725.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.09% - Cotton Index 328 was 3281 on October 24, 2025, and 3280 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.20% - Cotton (Xinjiang) was 14650.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 was 48.0 on October 26, 2025, and 46.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.17% - SR05 - 09 was - 14.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 11.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 21.43% - SR09 - 01 was - 34.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 35.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 2.94% - CF01 - 05 was 0.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 10.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - inf% - CF05 - 09 was - 160.0 on October 26 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - CF09 - 01 was 160.0 on October 26, 2025, and 170.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 6.25% - Sugar 01 basis was 284.0 on October 26, 2025, and 280.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.41% - Sugar 05 basis was 332.0 on October 26, 2025, and 326.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.81% - Sugar 09 basis was 318.0 on October 26, 2025, and 315.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.94% - Cotton 01 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1268.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.40% - Cotton 05 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1258.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.40% - Cotton 09 basis was 1103.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1098.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.45% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 75.55 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit was 1650.5 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5400, the implied volatility is 0.0752, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 7.1 - For SR601P5400, the implied volatility is 0.0743 - For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.074, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 7.97 - For CF601P13600, the implied volatility is 0.0752 [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar was 8185.0 on October 24, 2025, and 7795.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.76% - Cotton was 2503.0 on October 24, 2025, and 2488.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.60% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon disasters in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention [1][3]. - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,500 yuan [1] 3.2 Disk - U.S. sugar closed at 15.53 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.29 with a change of 0.00% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and with the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,418.0, with a change of - 0.24%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,653.0, with a change of - 2.61% [2] 3.5 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia is not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills is postponed. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period are suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas are higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] 3.6 Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. The cotton index 328 increased by 0.10%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: All price differences and basis of sugar and cotton remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 16 to 17, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.61% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst tense international trade sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 15.57, with a change of - 3.29%. U.S. cotton closed at 63.54, with a change of - 0.36% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was relatively high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, with a change of 0.00% [2] 3.4 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the sugar factory's start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, the main sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.6 Data Overview - **Outer - market Quotes**: From October 12 to 13, 2025, U.S. sugar dropped from 16.1 to 15.57, a decrease of 3.29%; U.S. cotton dropped from 63.77 to 63.54, a decrease of 0.36% [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar dropped from 5810.0 to 5780.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.52%; the cotton index 328 remained at 3280, and Xinjiang cotton remained at 14650.0 yuan [4] - **Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from October 12 to 13, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 18.52%, SR05 - 09 increasing by 266.67%, etc [4] - **Import Prices**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the cotton cotlookA remained at 75.3 [4] - **Profit Margin**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the sugar import profit remained at 1459.0 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0844, and its futures underlying is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.69; the implied volatility of CF601C13200 is 0.0971, and its futures underlying is CF601 with a historical volatility of 7.76 [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts remained at 8681.0, and cotton warehouse receipts remained at 2867.0 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The textile market has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", and cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally, with upward price momentum [1][2]. - The overall growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected by drought and excessive rainfall respectively, resulting in a delay in the start - up time of sugar mills. Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14950.0 yuan [1]. Market - U.S. sugar closed at 16.4, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton closed at 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8981.0, with a change of - 5.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [1] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar (in dollars) rose from 16.35 on September 28, 2025, to 16.4 on September 29, 2025, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton (in dollars) fell from 66.33 to 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [3]. Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, and Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5810.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 fell from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.32%. Xinjiang cotton spot price fell from 15000.0 yuan to 14950.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.33% [3]. Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, and sugar 05 and 09 basis points have changed to varying degrees, while the spreads of CF09 - 01 and cotton 01 and 09 basis points remained unchanged [3]. Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 77.7 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1484.5 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Options - The implied volatility of SR601C5500 and SR601P5500 is 0.0859, and the historical volatility of SR601 is 6.48. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1195, and the implied volatility of CF601P13400 is 0.1234, with the historical volatility of CF601 being 7.39 [3]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9464.0 on September 28, 2025, to 8981.0 on September 29, 2025, with a change of - 5.10%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3397.0 to 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [3] Strategy Recommendations - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to summer cold drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in some areas has been affected, delaying the sugar mill start - up time. [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the new - season cotton has generally grown better than last year. The cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the price has the motivation to rise. [1][3] Summary According to Related Contents Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5870.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5860.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15200.0 yuan. [1] Futures Market - U.S. sugar closed at 15.51, with a change of - 2.33%. U.S. cotton closed at 67.18, with a change of - 0.72%. [1] - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10988.0, with a change of - 2.48%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4615.0, with a change of - 3.03%. [2] Data Comparison | Category | Item | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outer - market Quotes | U.S. sugar (USD) | 15.88 | 15.51 | - 2.33% | | | U.S. cotton (USD) | 67.67 | 67.18 | - 0.72% | | Spot Prices | Sugar (Nanning) | 5890.0 | 5870.0 | - 0.34% | | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5865.0 | 5860.0 | - 0.09% | | | Cotton Index 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.07% | | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% | | Spread Overview | SR01 - 05 | 23.0 | 19.0 | - 17.39% | | | SR05 - 09 | - 6.0 | - 9.0 | 50.00% | | | SR09 - 01 | - 17.0 | - 10.0 | - 41.18% | | | CF01 - 05 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 14.29% | | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 150.0 | - 3.23% | | | CF09 - 01 | 120.0 | 110.0 | - 8.33% | | | Sugar 01 basis | 318.0 | 331.0 | 4.09% | | | Sugar 05 basis | 341.0 | 350.0 | 2.64% | | | Sugar 09 basis | 335.0 | 341.0 | 1.79% | | | Cotton 01 basis | 1405.0 | 1420.0 | 1.07% | | | Cotton 05 basis | 1440.0 | 1460.0 | 1.39% | | | Cotton 09 basis | 1285.0 | 1310.0 | 1.95% | | Import Prices | Cotton cotlookA | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0.00% | | Profit Margins | Sugar import profit | 1587.5 | 1587.5 | 0.00% | | Options | SR601C5500 | 0.0875 | SR601 | 6.13 | | | SR601P5500 | 0.0855 | | | | | CF601C13800 | 0.1156 | CF601 | 6.82 | | | CF601P13800 | 0.1124 | | | | Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) | Sugar | 11268.0 | 10988.0 | - 2.48% | | | Cotton | 4759.0 | 4615.0 | - 3.03% | [4] Strategy Suggestion - Mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate as extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production, while summer cold drink consumption boosts demand and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but are still expected to be within the annual forecast range [1][3] - Cotton prices are also expected to oscillate. Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. With decreasing commercial inventories and the upcoming cotton textile peak season, cotton prices have bottom support [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar decreased from 16.14 to 16.05, a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton increased from 66.05 to 66.23, a change of 0.27% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 increased by 0.34%, and Xinjiang cotton decreased from 15400.0 to 15300.0, a change of - 0.65% [4] Spread Quick View - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 decreasing by 23.08% and CF01 - 05 decreasing by 20.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA decreased from 77.95 to 77.5, a change of - 0.58% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit increased from 1550.0 to 1570.0, a change of 1.29% [4] Options - Implied volatilities and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided, e.g., SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0882 and SR601 has a historical volatility of 6.33 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13202.0 to 12782.0, a change of - 3.18%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6131.0 to 5996.0, a change of - 2.20% [4] Conclusions and Strategy Recommendations - Sugar: Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but the annual total is still expected to be within the forecast range [3] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, so cotton prices are supported [3] - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weakening US dollar provides support, and soft commodities will experience short - term oscillations [1] - For sugar, from July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1][3] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The overall growth progress is earlier than usual. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%. US cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, US sugar decreased by 0.56% to 16.05 US dollars, and US cotton increased by 0.27% to 66.23 US dollars [4] - **Spot Prices**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.34% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton decreased by 0.65% to 15300.0 yuan [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: There were significant changes in the price differences between different futures contracts of sugar and cotton, and the basis of sugar and cotton futures also changed to different degrees [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1550.0 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have corresponding implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 3.18% to 12782.0, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.20% to 5996.0 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar demand has a seasonal increase due to summer cold - drink consumption, and recent sugar imports have risen significantly driven by the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range. Meanwhile, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may impact sugar production and requires continuous monitoring. [1][3] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, with some parts of Xinjiang entering the boll - opening stage, and the overall growth progress is ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5910.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5825.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.34 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 66.53 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 13434.0, with a change of - 3.46%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6320.0, with a change of - 2.98% [2] Data Quick View External Market Quotations - US sugar price remained at 16.34 from August 31 to September 1, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton price remained at 66.53, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5960.0 to 5910.0 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, a decline of - 0.84%. Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5825.0, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton Index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a change of 0.99%. Xinjiang cotton spot price remained at 15250.0, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 spread increased from 37.0 to 39.0, a gain of 5.41%. SR05 - 09 spread decreased from - 24.0 to - 53.0, a change of 120.83%. SR09 - 01 spread changed from - 13.0 to 14.0, a change of - 207.69%. CF01 - 05 spread increased from 40.0 to 60.0, a gain of 50.00%. CF05 - 09 spread decreased from 410.0 to 370.0, a decline of - 9.76%. CF09 - 01 spread changed from - 450.0 to - 430.0, a decline of - 4.44% [4] Basis - Sugar 01 basis decreased from 221.0 to 216.0, a decline of - 2.26%. Sugar 05 basis decreased from 258.0 to 255.0, a decline of - 1.16%. Sugar 09 basis decreased from 234.0 to 202.0, a decline of - 13.68%. Cotton 01 basis increased from 1088.0 to 1454.0, a gain of 33.64%. Cotton 05 basis increased from 1128.0 to 1514.0, a gain of 34.22%. Cotton 09 basis increased from 1538.0 to 1884.0, a gain of 22.50% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA price remained at 78.7 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1493.0 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0837, and the underlying futures is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.36. SR601P5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0824. CF601C14000 has an implied volatility of 0.1217, and the underlying futures is CF601 with a historical volatility of 6.63. CF601P14000 has an implied volatility of 0.1196 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13916.0 to 13434.0 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, a decline of - 3.46%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6514.0 to 6320.0, a decline of - 2.98% [4]