12月29日，华泰瑞思研报指出，多重扰动下，近期经济数据走弱。这一趋势和今年广义财政支出节奏在 前置后边际放缓有关：9月后内需增长下行、与广义财政净融资和新增赤字的缺口扩大（即结余上升） 的时点相吻合。 随着财政支出力度减退，近期市场对逆周期调节政策的预期亦有所减弱。华泰瑞思发现，2022年后，广 义财政支出节奏和经济增长均呈现较为明显和相似的季节性：每年增长都呈现"开门红"走势，4个季度 中1季度复合增长率最高、4季度次之。 明年是"十五五"开局之年，且年末政治局和经济工作会议上中央对明年"良好开局"均有明确部署。华泰 瑞思估算，9月后财政结转资金量和财政存款明显上升，留有支持明年"开门红"的"储备"。同时，中央 和地方在项目和政策方向上也有一定的准备；资金投向方面，"两重"、城市更新、稳消费、稳地产及现 代化产业体系的建设方面政策支持值得期待。 一、2022年来"开门红"成为季节性规律，财政为重要支撑 今年下半年以来财政力度边际放缓，偏高基数下，明年财政继续前置发力支持"开门红"的必要性再度凸 显。回溯2022年以来的规律，广义财政支出呈现"年初年末集中发力、年中相对平缓"的季节性特征，增 长则相应呈现一 ...

消费领域方面，乔虹表示，2025年以来中国社会消费品零售总额增速约为4%，这一增长主要得益于政 府推出的"以旧换新"补贴计划，重点支持汽车、家电和电子产品等大件商品。不过受去年同期高基数影 响，近几个月相关领域的消费增速有所放缓。 乔虹预计，2026年政府将延续规模约3000亿元人民币的补贴计划，且可能将补贴范围从大件商品扩大至 更多小件商品，进一步支持商品消费；而服务消费相关提振措施最早或于2026年下半年推出。 对于房地产市场，乔虹指出，内地楼市的下行趋势预计将在2026年见底。她对21世纪经济报道记者表 示，一线城市房价有望率先回暖，待其企稳后，复苏态势将逐步传导至二三线城市市场。 12月16日，美银证券大中华首席经济学家乔虹在亚洲及大中华区经济宏观展望会上表示，预计中国2026 年全年GDP增长率将达到4.7%。她同时表示，届时内地有望出台更多逆周期调节政策，以支持经济增 长贴近目标水平。 她进一步分析指出，2026年中国经济增长的动力结构将发生变化，内需的重要性进一步提升，而出口对 增长的拉动作用相较于2025年或有所减弱。 乔虹表示，为持续刺激内需，内地货币政策将会适度宽松。中国人民银行在2026 ...

记者丨 张伟泽 编辑丨李莹亮 和佳 12月16日，美银证券大中华首席经济学家乔虹在亚洲及大中华区经济宏观展望会上表示， 预 计中国2026年全年GDP增长率将达到4.7%。 她同时表示，届时内地有望出台更多逆周期调节 政策，以支持经济增长贴近目标水平。 她进一步分析指出，2026年中国经济增长的动力结构将发生变化，内需的重要性进一步提升， 而出口对增长的拉动作用相较于2025年或有所减弱。 乔虹表示，为持续刺激内需，内地货币政策将会适度宽松。中国人民银行在2026年将会有两次 10基点的降息。 政策性利率下降将有望在2026年第一季度和第二季度发生。 投资领域内部则呈现出分化与挑战。美银证券大中华区经济学家皮晓晴指出，尽管政府部署了 包括4%财政赤字、1.3万亿元超长期国债及创纪录的4.4万亿元地方政府专项债等财政工具，但 基础设施投资一度面临地方政府流动性紧缩的制约。随着年底季节性支出和增量政策的逐步到 位，基建投资有望在2026年第一季度后回升。长期来看，投资重点将从传统的交通网络转向能 源基建、5G、数据中心等新基建以及公共服务设施领域。 尽管面临贸易保护主义抬头和关税增加的外部挑战，今年中国出口表现仍 ...

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 美银证券大中华首席经济学家乔虹在亚洲及大中华区经济宏观展望会上表示，预计中国2026年全年GDP 增长率将达到4.7%。她同时表示，届时内地有望出台更多逆周期调节政策，以支持经济增长贴近目标 水平。乔虹表示，为持续刺激内需，内地货币政策将会适度宽松。中国人民银行在2026年将会有两次10 基点的降息。政策性利率下降将有望在2026年第一季度和第二季度发生。对于房地产市场，乔虹指出， 内地楼市的下行趋势预计将在2026年见底。一线城市房价有望率先回暖，待其企稳后，复苏态势将逐步 传导至二三线城市市场。 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251212 今年11月进口同比增长1.9%，出口同比增长5.9%，增速分别较上月加快0.9和7个百分 点。CPI同比上涨0.7%,涨幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月 扩大0.1个百分点，主要受去年同期基数抬升和部分工业品价格下跌的影响。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 随着"两新"政策的效用边际减弱，以及汽车、家电、移动通讯等耐用品需求提前释 放，相关行业利润增长放缓，下游企业经营压力依然较大，仍在主动去库存阶段。 利率 流动性 沪深两市融资余额上升至24888.31亿元，央行本周共开展6685亿7天期逆回购操作， 实现净投放47亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 企业盈利 资金面 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美联储12月会议如期降息 ...

人民币持续走强！ 继前一日在岸、离岸双双升破7.09之后，11月26日，在岸、离岸价盘中又双双击穿7.08。截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币报 7.07428。 同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报7.0796，较上个交易日调高30个 基点。今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，人民币持续升值主要原因有二：一是近期人民币对美元中间价持续向偏强方向调整；二是 今年我国出口超预期，7月以来国内资本市场走强，在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 王青认为，美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击正逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限；不 过，年初以来美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 国内方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响逐步显现，10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，当月进一步安排5000亿 元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，逆周期调节政策适时加力将确保四季度经济运行基本稳定。这 方面有充足的政策空间，也意味着经济基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have both surpassed the 7.09 mark, reaching a high not seen in over a year, driven by a weak dollar environment and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of November 25, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0826, an increase of 21 basis points from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1000 basis points [1] - Analysts attribute the recent appreciation of the RMB to two main factors: the continuous adjustment of the RMB central parity rate towards a stronger direction and the unexpected growth in exports, which has boosted confidence in the RMB [2][1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, with key factors to monitor including the US dollar's movements, the adjustment of the RMB central parity rate, and the effectiveness of domestic growth policies [2] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the impact of US tariff policies are likely to limit the upward movement of the dollar index, while the RMB is expected to remain stable with limited volatility against the dollar [2] Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Indices - As of November 21, all three major RMB exchange rate indices showed an increase, with the CFETS index at 98.22 (up 0.39), the BIS index at 104.66 (up 0.5), and the SDR index at 92.6 (up 0.34), all reaching their highest levels since April 2025 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data and the need to digest external negative factors, the stock index will enter an adjustment phase from high - level oscillation; the hawkish speeches of Fed officials have further dampened the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the short - term rebound of gold may continue to adjust [44]. - Medium - to long - term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; with the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing space for further interest rate cuts by the Fed, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding for 8 consecutive months; infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, turning negative for the first time since September 2020; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new low since February 2021 [6]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1. Enterprise Profit and Capital - In October this year, the scale of new loans and social financing declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.2%, and that of M1 was 6.2%, down 0.2 and 1 percentage points from the previous month respectively, and the gap between them widened again [19]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 24724.55 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 1676 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 554 billion yuan [23]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1. Interest Rate and Inflation - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. Many Fed officials made hawkish speeches, expressing concerns about high inflation, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is running at a high level [28]. 3.3.2. Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - The economic data in October this year generally weakened, with the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment expanding, industrial production slowing down, and the growth rate of consumption declining marginally. In terms of enterprise profits, there is a differentiation among different industries. The decline in profits of upstream raw material processing industries has narrowed, while the profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained rapid growth. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [43]. - Considering that the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, there is no pressure to achieve the expected annual development target, and the necessity of further strengthening macro - policies at the end of the year has decreased. Influenced by the continuous slump in the external market, there are concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble. With the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the market expectation is gradually returning to reality, and the stock index may enter a phased adjustment in the short term [43]. - The minutes of the Fed meeting released hawkish signals. Many officials are concerned about high inflation and need to be cautious about further interest rate cuts. It implies that without sufficient evidence of an unexpected decline in inflation or continuous weakness in the labor market, the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts at the December meeting. Due to the shutdown of the US federal government, the November non - farm payrolls report has been postponed to December 16, meaning that there will be no new employment data for the Fed's December meeting, and the market has further reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut. In the short term, the internal differences within the Fed on future interest rate policies have increased, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising, pushing up the US dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, and gold has come under pressure again in the short term [43].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a one-year high of 7.0908 on November 14, driven by a weak dollar environment and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1][2]. Exchange Rate Trends - On November 14, the RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 40 basis points to 7.0825, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1000 basis points [2]. - The RMB has shown a consistent upward trend against the dollar throughout the year, starting at 7.27 and experiencing a low of 7.42879 in April before rebounding as the dollar weakened [3][4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong position in the short term, with potential to test the 7.0 mark against the dollar, influenced by a weak dollar and seasonal demand for currency exchange [5]. - By 2026, the RMB is expected to experience moderate appreciation, supported by a favorable external environment and domestic economic stability [6][7]. Economic Factors - The RMB's strength is attributed to the anticipated acceleration of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact of US tariff policies on the US economy, limiting the dollar's upward potential [4][6]. - Domestic policies, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government debt management, are expected to stabilize the economy and support the RMB [4][6]. Market Sentiment - Market analysts express a cautious optimism regarding the RMB's ability to break the 7.0 barrier, with some projecting a year-end rate closer to 7.0 under baseline scenarios [5][6]. - The potential for a new appreciation cycle starting in 2025 is also highlighted, with expectations for the RMB to reach levels between 6.70 and 6.80 by the end of 2026 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].