一、 日内特殊时刻与主力资金行为刻画 日内特殊时刻： 不同时刻下的订单具有不同信息含量，我们发现在日内跌幅较 大、股价较低、成交量较高、量价背离等日内特殊时刻的主力资金交易行为具有 更多的信息含量。 主力资金交易行为刻画——标准化笔均成交金额SATD因子： 以平均每笔成交金 额（ATD）指标刻画主力资金，将特殊时刻笔均成交金额除以全天笔均成交金 额，得到去量纲后的标准化笔均成交金额（SATD）因子。 二、 基于股价涨跌的主力资金交易行为刻画 股价下跌时刻蕴含的Alpha信息： 根据分钟股价涨跌将不同时刻划分为上涨、下 跌和横盘，发现下跌时刻SATD因子对股价未来收益具有较好的预测效果。进一步 地，下跌幅度越大，因子表现越好。 基于逐笔成交数据改进SATD因子： 引入逐笔成交数据，根据每笔成交的主动买 卖方向对特殊时刻成交记录进行划分，构造主买和主卖SATD因子。 跌幅最大时刻主卖SATD因子： 基于跌幅最大时刻、主动卖出订单构建的主卖 SATD因子，RankIC均值8.96%，年化RankICIR为4.24，月胜率86%。 三、 基于股价高低的主力资金交易行为刻画 股价最低时刻主卖SATD因子： 基于股价最低 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月07日 金融工程专题研究 日内特殊时刻蕴含的主力资金 Alpha 信息 日内特殊时刻与主力资金行为刻画 日内特殊时刻：不同时刻下的订单具有不同信息含量，我们发现在日内跌幅 较大、股价较低、成交量较高、量价背离等日内特殊时刻的主力资金交易行 为具有更多的信息含量。 主力资金交易行为刻画——标准化笔均成交金额因子：以平均每笔成 交金额（）指标刻画主力资金，将特殊时刻笔均成交金额除以全天笔均 成交金额，得到去量纲后的标准化笔均成交金额（）因子。 基于股价涨跌的主力资金交易行为刻画 股价下跌时刻蕴含的 Alpha 信息：根据分钟股价涨跌将不同时刻划分为上 涨、下跌和横盘，发现下跌时刻因子对股价未来收益具有较好的预测 效果。进一步地，下跌幅度越大，因子表现越好。 基于逐笔成交数据改进因子：引入逐笔成交数据，根据每笔成交的主 动买卖方向对特殊时刻成交记录进行划分，构造主买和主卖因子。 跌幅最大时刻主卖因子：基于跌幅最大时刻、主动卖出订单构建的主 卖因子，RankIC 均值 8.96%，年化 RankICIR 为 4.24，月胜率 86%。 基于股价高低的主力资金交易行为刻画 股价最低时刻 ...

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币界网6月19日讯，BTC价格在今日凌晨突破关键阻力位，最高触及108652美元，创下近三个月新高。 BOSS Wallet最新技术分析显示，尽管交易量出现阶段性萎缩，但MACD柱状图持续收窄、KDJ死叉后 的反弹预期，正为多头积蓄能量。价格博弈的漩涡之中，XBIT去中心化交易所平台凭借其深度流动性 池与精准策略工具，成为投资者捕捉行情的"隐形武器"。 比特币价格"过山车"背后：量价背离暗藏玄机 图源:币界网 XBIT：如何用工具破解行情密码？ 第一，量价背离：价格创阶段新高，但交易量较前4小时下降12%，暗示上涨动能可能面临衰竭； 第二，MACD多空博弈：DIF线与DEA线在零轴下方金叉，柱状图由负转正，显示多头力量悄然反扑； 第三，KDJ中性信号：K值22、D值28、J值14形成"死叉后钝化"，市场或进入方向选择临界点。 XBIT首席分析师指出："当前BTC走势类似2024年11月'减半前夜'的震荡格局，关键支撑位103249美元 （前低）与阻力位108309美元（整数关口）构成多空决战区间。若量能无法在48小时内放大，需警 惕'假突破'风险。" 据币界网APP数据在传统交易所因流动性不足导致滑点频发的当 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhou Li Fu's long-awaited IPO is set to launch on June 26, 2025, with a global offering of 46.808 million shares at a price of HKD 24.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 1.024 billion [1] Company Overview - Zhou Li Fu, established in 2004, is a well-known jewelry brand in China, primarily engaged in the design, production, and sales of jewelry through both offline and online channels [2] - As of the end of 2024, Zhou Li Fu had 4,129 stores, ranking fifth among Chinese jewelry brands, with 4,125 located in China and 4 overseas [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhou Li Fu's revenue reached RMB 5.718 billion, but the growth rate plummeted to 11% from 66% the previous year, indicating a significant slowdown [2] - The company's net profit for the year was RMB 706 million, with a net profit margin dropping from 18.5% in 2022 to 12.4% in 2024, a decline of 6.1 percentage points [2] Market Position and Challenges - Zhou Li Fu faces a differentiation dilemma, lacking a unique brand identity compared to competitors like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook, leading to severe product homogeneity [3] - Despite rising gold prices, the jewelry industry is experiencing a "volume-price divergence," with many companies, including Zhou Li Fu, reporting declining profits [3][4] Inventory and Sales Issues - Zhou Li Fu's inventory reached RMB 2.59 billion as of April 30, 2025, posing a risk of inventory impairment if gold prices decline [4] - The total order volume for self-operated stores decreased from 122,000 in 2023 to 117,000 in 2024, with same-store sales revenue dropping from RMB 369 million to RMB 291 million [4] Franchise Model and Management Challenges - Zhou Li Fu's rapid expansion relies heavily on a franchise model, with 97.8% of its stores being franchisee-operated, which has led to quality control issues and management challenges [5][6] - In 2024, the number of closed franchise stores (674) exceeded new openings (424), indicating instability in the franchise system [5] Legal and Brand Issues - Zhou Li Fu has faced multiple legal challenges regarding trademark infringement, with 95 ongoing cases, raising concerns about its brand strategy [7] - The company's name has been criticized for being misleading and similar to established brands, which could hinder long-term growth [7] Dividend Distribution and Ownership Structure - Zhou Li Fu has distributed over RMB 944 million in dividends over two years, primarily benefiting the controlling Li family, which holds approximately 93.7% of the company's shares [8] Conclusion - While the IPO may represent a significant moment for Zhou Li Fu, underlying issues such as a fragile franchise model, brand controversies, and product homogeneity remain critical challenges [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, describing it as a "trend detector" in the stock market that helps investors understand price movements and market sentiment. Group 1: MACD Overview - MACD consists of two lines (DIFF and DEA) and a histogram (energy bars), which visually represent market trends and momentum [3]. - The white line (DIFF) is the fast line, while the yellow line (DEA) is the slow line, with red and green bars indicating bullish and bearish momentum respectively [3]. Group 2: Practical Techniques - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the DIFF line crosses above the DEA line, signaling a potential buying opportunity, while a death cross indicates a selling signal when the DIFF crosses below the DEA [4]. - **Energy Bars**: The appearance of red bars indicates bullish strength, while green bars suggest bearish pressure. The length of these bars reflects the intensity of the market movement [4]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the MACD does not, indicating potential weakness. Conversely, a bottom divergence suggests a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the MACD does not [4]. Group 3: Practical Considerations - MACD is best suited for analyzing medium-term trends, such as 30-minute or daily charts, while it may be too sensitive for short-term analysis [5]. - In a volatile market, relying solely on MACD can be misleading; it is advisable to combine it with other indicators like moving averages for better accuracy [5]. - It is crucial to consider volume alongside MACD signals to avoid false indicators, as a lack of volume during a golden cross may suggest a weak signal [5].

周五，沪深A股主要的大盘指数下跌，走势基本符合预期。盘面上看，绝大多数个股下跌，跌停20家，人气比较低迷。A股跳水，释放什么信号？ 再来看科创50指数。 科创50指数，今天盘中反弹，这是昨天分析到的，但是反弹的目标位比较小，就是十日均线，盘中基本达到了目标位，所以今天冲高回落也是正常的走势。 今天的K线，实体比较大，上影线比较长，释放了调整信号。所以，下周一该指数大概率还有调整。不过，从周期面来看，今天是有效调整的第九个周期， 即便是最近三个交易日的三连阴，也走出了小型周期的第三个有效周期，下周一是个变盘节点。 一、大盘指数分析 中午，重点分析了上证50指数和创业板指数，指出午后警惕大盘指数跳水。接下来，重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证指数。 上证指数，今天冲高回落，午后跳水，日K线是阴线，实体比较大，带有明显的下跌惯性。所以，下周一上证指数大概率还有调整。更为关键的是，最近一 段时间反复提及的潜在双重顶形态，今天的中阴线跌破了颈线位，使得阶段性顶部形态成立了，这意味着接下来一段时间，大盘指数都以调整为主。实际 上，本轮上涨，不仅连续走出高开缺口，到现在都没有回补，更为关键的是一段上涨都没有放量， ...

投机大拿判断，那么在这种情况下，买方一定是具有官方背景的资金。他强调，昨日下午市场能够横 盘，只有两种可能：一种是有官方资金在下跌过程中承接了所有卖盘，之后再无买盘，所以横盘；另一 种可能是下午过程中一直有买盘支撑，才能保持横盘。从结果来看，昨日下午成交量相对低迷，说明既 没有太多的卖盘，也没有太多的买盘。由此可以推断，上午的卖盘基本被承接，下午没有更多的卖盘出 现，才导致了北证50横盘结果。 因此，投机大拿分析认为，近期市场的下跌确为有机构离场，但神秘资金已经出手，承接了卖盘，所以 市场各大指数均呈现出跌不下去，横盘整理的走势。因此，他认为如果国家层面有托举指数的决心，卖 盘能被悉数承接，那么未来市场方向相对来说是比较稳定的。 （原标题：投顾观市：机构资金离场，但是有神秘资金承接？） 5月23日，和讯投顾投机大拿在今日市场分析中指出，近期 A 股出现下跌态势，基本可以确定是机构资 本离场所致。若仔细观察便会发现，上证、深证、创业、科创以及北证昨日走势如出一辙，下跌的起始 点一致，止跌的起始点也相同，甚至下午的横盘走势都极为相近。能够使整个市场所有指数呈现出如此 统一的步调，绝非一般资金能够达成，因此可以确定 ...

5月22日，和讯投顾朱一鸣分析，现在跟各位去谈一谈就今天的这个走势，我们其实早在一两周以前就 已经连续的跟各位提过，我说盘面上的这个行情是有一定的问题的，结果呢他当时没有直接鉴定，而是 在今天啊出现了一个比较明显的下跌，目前来讲下跌家数超过4000家。嗯这个走势怎么理解？呢我跟各 位谈一下，就是目前来讲它的这个走势，其实这个下跌和调整我觉得是刚刚开始的，并不是说今天跌的 多了，就直接的并不是这个概念，因为这个量价之间的背离关系，他是从5月份的月初，大概5月7号8号 那个时候就已经开始了，到现在已经5月快月底了对吧？整整半个月都是一个保持无量上涨无量震荡的 一个格局。并且我们在之前的这个过程里面也跟各位明显的就提过这个点，从4月7号3040点开始，直到 今天5月22号3400点附近，整整340~50个点的这个上涨，持续了一个半月的走势，没有出现过大幅度的 调整。 （原标题：和讯投顾朱一鸣：冲击3400失败，回落明显，拐点来了吗？） 唯一的一次调整是在我们端午啊五一假期前那几天有一个小幅度的调整。也就是说现在我们面临这个调 整，首先我们刚刚说的刚开始，其次这个调整的级别很大概率是一个日线，甚至有可能演变成周线级别 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a clear divergence, with financial stocks leading the decline and dragging down the index, while small and medium-sized stocks are showing signs of recovery [1] - The overall market is weak, with trading volume shrinking to over 800 billion, and this trend has persisted for nearly 20 trading days, indicating a significant volume divergence [2] - The pressure at the 3400 level is substantial, with the index having attempted to break through this level five times since October 8 of the previous year, each time with greater volume but ultimately failing [2][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock index has entered a previous resistance zone after a significant rise, suggesting a high probability of subsequent fluctuations and adjustments [3] - The current short-term technical indicators suggest that the index has not yet shown a clear end to its corrective phase, necessitating a defensive strategy to protect capital [3] - The critical support level to watch is 3352, as this area represents a concentration of positions for both retail and institutional investors, making it crucial for market stability [3]