中金发布研报称，近日，商务部、海关总署联合发布公告，决定对《出口许可证管理货物目录(2025 年)》进行调整，将部分钢铁产品纳入出口许可证管理范围。本次钢铁出口新政的核心目的之一在于压 缩"买单出口""挂靠出口"等违规操作空间，新政落地后，钢铁出口合规成本与可追溯性明显提升。当前 钢铁板块整体估值仍处于历史偏低区间，在出口合规化与反内卷政策协同推进的背景下行业竞争格局有 望持续改善，马太效应有望凸显，核心资产有望迎戴维斯双击。 26年钢铁反内卷仍可期，行业供需格局无需过于悲观 中金认为，本次出口新政标志着国家对出口内卷问题的重视，26年行业反内卷政策值得期待，通过行业 分级差异化管控产量及收紧产能置换，逐步出清淘汰落后低效产能，钢铁行业供给变革有望在26年加 速，行业供需无需过于悲观。 标的方面 重点推荐华菱钢铁（000932）(000932.SZ)、天工国际(00826)。 风险因素 中金主要观点如下： 出口许可管理重启，旨在引导行业高质量发展 本次钢材产品出口许可证管理重启，背景是过去三年我国钢材出口量持续"量增价减"：截至2025年11月 我国钢材出口量达1.077亿吨，同比增6.7%，创历史新高，而出 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及钢铁制造、加工 及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 覆盖普钢、特钢等领域，具有显著的行业集中特征，成分股每半年调整一次，确保紧密跟踪行业动态。 信达证券指出，钢铁行业在政策引导与市场调节下正逐步摆脱低水平同质化竞争的"内卷"困局，迈向高 质量发展阶段。供给端呈现总量收缩与结构分化，2025年1-10月粗钢产量同比下降3.9%，制造业用钢 （如冷轧薄板、电工钢板带）产量增速显著高于建筑用钢。需求端内需持续收缩，房地产与基建用钢疲 软，但出口同比增长6.4%，成为重要支撑。盈利端受益于原料价格回落，行业毛利率升至6.4%，利润 总额同比大幅增长。钢价中枢下移至3447元/吨，但PPI转正预期增强，预计2026年二季度钢铁PPI有望 回升。行业通过产能置换、环保升级等措施优化供给结构，高端产品占比提升，整体呈现供需双降、结 构优化、盈利边际改善的态势。 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者董红艳 北京报道 同时，多股出现跟涨。鄂尔多斯收盘价11.37元，涨幅5.18%；方大特钢收盘价5.91元，涨幅4.05%；南 钢股份涨幅达3.74%，收盘价4.99元；久立特材、首钢股份、华菱钢铁等也分别有2.98%、2.33%、 2.23%的涨幅，共同支撑板块整体强势。 不过，板块内并非全线飘红，宝钢股份收盘价7.05元，跌幅1.95%；大中矿业跌幅2.02%，收盘价25.70 元；杭钢股份收盘报7.96元，跌1.73且创60日新低；哈焊华通跌幅最大，达8.72%，收盘价49.29元。不 过，整体看来，这些下跌个股对板块整体走势的拖累有限。 从市值来看，宝钢股份以1535.64亿元总市值位居板块首位，即便当日下跌，依旧凭借庞大体量成为板 块权重核心；包钢股份、中信特钢也分别有1077.87亿元、762.63亿元的高市值。成交方面，包钢股份成 交量达2.89亿元，在板块中处于前列，而部分高市值个股如中信特钢，换手率仅0.48%，交易活跃度相 对较低。 市场普遍认为，钢铁板块的股价集体上涨，与此前公布的"钢铁产品实施出口许可证"政策相关。 与出口许可政策形成呼应 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月15日08时26分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。本周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大。短期来看，钢材出口许可制度的 调整以及生产许可证制度方面的变化对市场仍有一定的压力 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约整体依然是震荡走势，隔夜低开高走，上方存在 较大的阻力。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，如果后市继续下跌，且形成新的下行趋势，可以适当减仓或平仓离场。当前的位置不建议做空。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3060 -9 -0.29% -97 -3.07% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3232 -6 -0.19% -88 -2.65% 螺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation. This move aims to guide the standardized export of steel products and promote high-quality development in the steel industry [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the implementation of export license management for 300 steel product categories, covering the entire industry chain from raw materials to finished products [3]. - This policy is part of a broader strategy to address challenges in the steel industry and is aligned with the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by multiple government departments [4]. Group 2: Export Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with an expected total export volume of 115 million tons for the year, surpassing the historical high of 112 million tons in 2015 [4]. - Despite the increase in export volume, there are structural issues, such as declining export prices and a surge in low-value-added primary product exports, which could lead to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][5]. Group 3: Trade Friction and Market Strategy - The steel industry has faced a significant rise in trade friction, with over 50 anti-dumping cases reported since 2024, the highest in history. Countries like Vietnam, India, and South Korea have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products, with rates reaching up to 38.02% [5]. - The introduction of export license management is expected to increase compliance costs for low-value-added products, prompting companies to adjust their product structures and explore new markets in Africa and Latin America [5]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific product categories under the new management and prepare necessary documentation for export contracts and quality inspections [6]. - There is a call for increased R&D investment to develop high-end products such as high-performance bearing steel and gear steel, with some leading companies already exporting "green steel" products that significantly reduce carbon emissions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation [2][12]. Group 1: Policy Background - The policy adjustment is a necessary response to multiple challenges facing the steel industry, including a projected steel export volume of 115 million tons for 2025, a 6.7% year-on-year increase, despite a 10.3% drop in average export prices [3][13]. - The steel industry has faced a record high of over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, with countries like Vietnam and India imposing tariffs as high as 38.02% on Chinese products [3][13]. - The surge in low-value primary product exports, such as 5.89 million tons of steel billets in the first half of 2025, reflects a concerning trend of "volume over price" that increases energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][3]. Group 2: Policy Content - The export license management will cover 300 customs product codes, spanning the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [5][14]. - Specific products include non-alloy pig iron, recycled steel raw materials, and hot-rolled coils, with a focus on compliance with national standards for recycled materials [6][15]. - The application process requires exporters to provide contracts and quality inspection certificates, enhancing the quality reputation of Chinese steel products [6][15]. Group 3: Policy Connection - The announcement is part of a broader framework of recent policies aimed at strengthening steel product export management and optimizing product structure [7][16]. - The policy aligns with the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by multiple government departments, emphasizing the need for improved export management [7][16]. Group 4: Industry Significance - The policy aims to curb the chaotic export of low-value products, pushing companies to adjust their product structures and reduce reliance on price competition [8][17]. - It will help companies navigate international trade barriers by encouraging diversification into emerging markets like Africa and Latin America [8][17]. - The management will also facilitate the green transition of the steel industry, coinciding with the introduction of carbon trading and border adjustment mechanisms in the coming years [8][17]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are encouraged to adapt proactively to the new policy, preparing necessary documentation and understanding the specific product categories affected [9][18]. - Increased investment in R&D for high-end products and the adoption of "green steel" practices are recommended to enhance competitiveness [10][18]. - Establishing a robust quality management system is crucial, as compliance with quality inspection requirements will be a key factor in maintaining export capabilities [10][18].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the steel industry and maintaining global trade balance [1][2]. Group 1: Export License Management - The new export license management will cover 300 customs product codes, encompassing the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [1]. - This policy is a response to the challenges faced by the steel industry, including structural contradictions in export volumes and prices, and aims to optimize the export product structure [2][3]. Group 2: Export Volume and Pricing - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with an expected total export volume of 115 million tons for the year, surpassing the historical high of 112 million tons in 2015 [2]. - Despite the increase in export volume, there is a notable decline in export prices, with the average export price dropping by 10.3% to $699.3 per ton in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Trade Friction and Market Strategy - The steel industry has faced over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, with countries like Vietnam, India, and South Korea imposing anti-dumping duties as high as 38.02% on Chinese steel products [3]. - The export license management is expected to compel companies to adjust their product structures and reduce reliance on traditional markets with high anti-dumping duties, while exploring emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [3]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific products under the new management and prepare necessary documentation for export licenses starting December 15, 2025 [4]. - There is a push for increased R&D investment in high-end steel products, with some leading companies already exporting "green steel" products that significantly reduce carbon emissions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reintroducing export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in steel export regulation after 16 years of deregulation [1][2]. Group 1: Export License Management - The export license management will cover 300 customs commodity codes, encompassing the entire steel industry chain from raw materials to finished products [1]. - This initiative aims to guide the standardized export of steel products, promoting high-quality development in the steel industry and maintaining global supply-demand balance [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has emphasized the need to strengthen steel product export management to optimize the export product structure [2]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected annual total of 115 million tons, surpassing the historical high of 112 million tons in 2015 [2]. - Despite the growth in export volume, there are structural issues, such as declining export prices and a surge in low-value-added primary product exports, which contradict the long-term goals of high-quality development [2][3]. Group 3: Price and Trade Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, steel exports amounted to 58.15 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year increase, but the average export price fell by 10.3% to $699.3 per ton, leading to a 2.0% decrease in export value to $40.66 billion [3]. - The significant increase in steel billet exports, which tripled to 5.89 million tons, alongside a 15.3% drop in export prices, indicates that some companies are still engaged in price competition at a basic level [3]. Group 4: Trade Friction and Market Strategy - The steel industry has faced a record number of trade friction cases, with over 50 anti-dumping cases since 2024, affecting products like hot-rolled sheets and medium-thick plates, with tariffs as high as 38.02% imposed by countries such as Vietnam and India [3]. - The export license management is expected to compel companies to adjust their product structures and optimize export market strategies, reducing reliance on traditional markets with high anti-dumping duties and exploring emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [3]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to familiarize themselves with the specific product catalog under management and prepare necessary export contract and quality inspection documents ahead of time [4]. - There is a call for increased R&D investment to develop high-end products such as high-performance bearing steel and gear steel, with some leading domestic companies already exporting "green steel" products that achieve significant carbon reductions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry has shown significant improvement in operational efficiency in the first three quarters of the year, with a total revenue of 4.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, and a profit of 96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The cumulative crude steel production in China for the first three quarters was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with expectations to maintain a downward trend for the entire year [4]. - Domestic apparent consumption of crude steel was 649 million tons, down 5.7% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline [4]. - Steel exports increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 87.96 million tons, while imports decreased by 12.6% to 4.53 million tons, resulting in a net export of 96.76 million tons, up 21.0% [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to face challenges in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand decline, particularly with ongoing downturns in the real estate market and negative growth in infrastructure investment [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined a plan for the steel industry aiming for an average annual growth of 4% in industrial added value, emphasizing efficiency and quality over expansion [6]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt a disciplined approach to production and inventory management to mitigate pressures on supply and demand balance [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Hualing Steel plans to build a new large billet continuous casting machine project to enhance product quality and expand specifications in response to market demands and high-end product structure [1][2] Group 1: Project Details - The investment for the new continuous casting machine project is 512 million yuan, with a construction period of 15 months, funded by the company's own resources [1] - The existing continuous casting capacity is insufficient to meet the production needs for high-quality rebar, limiting the ability to expand product specifications [1][2] Group 2: Market Context - The steel market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in the special steel market, which has high added value and significant demand from major global projects [1][2] - The demand for high-quality steel materials is increasing, driven by the development of large-scale equipment in sectors such as shipbuilding, offshore engineering, and wind power [1] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, Hualing Steel reported revenue of 94.598 billion yuan and a total profit of 4.229 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.510 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.72% [2]