铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：再生供应增加，且炒作题材弱化，价格偏弱震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17400元/吨 沪铅12合约持仓库存比处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 25 pb2412.shf pb2508.s ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the production of secondary lead is rapidly recovering. Consumption is temporarily stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The production of primary lead has increased, and secondary lead enterprises have large profits, leading to a rapid rise in production. Terminal consumption is temporarily stable, with an increase in the operating rate of battery factories and more raw material purchases. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and short - volatility operations can be considered. With the increase in domestic lead inventory, the long domestic and short overseas arbitrage should be continued to hold [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,490 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.40%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,012 US dollars, with a decrease of 0.64%. The LME lead spot premium has changed from - 26.48 to - 10.74, and the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts has changed from - 80 to - 60 [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 258 to 21,903 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 2,583 to 38,582 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,000 to 31,800 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 203,700 tons, with the注销仓单 ratio at 49.95% [6]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 27,206 lots, a decrease of 21,113 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 59,818 lots, a decrease of 8,366 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,307 lots, an increase of 4,935 lots, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The production, import volume, and actual consumption of lead concentrate in China are presented in the data, and the inventory in Lianyungang shows certain fluctuations over the years. The import and domestic treatment charges of lead concentrate have changed, and the profit of lead concentrate smelting has also fluctuated [24]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased, and the weekly operating rate has shown different trends over the years. The production of secondary lead has also increased, and the operating rate has recovered. The by - product silver output and the price of sulfuric acid in the lead - smelting process are also presented [29][30]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are shown in the data, and the net import and export volume of refined lead also have corresponding changes [36][40]. Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has shown different trends over the years, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are presented. The export volume of batteries also shows certain changes [44]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the data, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing while the demand is weak, which restricts the price increase. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 17,200 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The processing fee of lead concentrate remains weak [3][5][7]. - The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased. The start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The spot end's role in pushing up the price has weakened. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 17,595 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.05%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,575 yuan, with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The LME lead cash - forward spread changed from - 41.85 to - 36.64, with a change of 5.21. The premium of lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 112.5. The spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead changed from - 25 to - 10, with a change of 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 75, with a change of - 25 [8]. - **Inventory**: From October 16th to October 23rd, the domestic lead inventory decreased from 37,700 tons to 31,900 tons, still at a relatively low level for the same period in history. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,034 tons to 23,048 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 31,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons [7][8]. - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 79,514 lots, an increase of 39,872 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 83,846 lots, an increase of 43,628 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LME S - lead 3 was 4,991 lots, a decrease of 997 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate continues to be weak. The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate decreased to - 125 US dollars/ton this week. The import lead concentrate processing fee decreased from - 110 to - 125 US dollars/ton, and the import lead concentrate smelting profit decreased by 152 yuan/ton to - 1,850 yuan/ton. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead concentrate smelting profit remained at - 2,800 yuan/ton [5][7][8]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Some secondary lead enterprises in some regions are under maintenance due to environmental protection control, but the profit of primary lead has increased, and the supply of waste batteries is abundant. Secondary lead enterprises in Anhui have resumed production more [7]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: Consumption is gradually entering the off - season. The enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased, the start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in previous years is shown in the data, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are also provided [7][46]. - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead in previous years is shown in the data, along with the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market lacks obvious drivers, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3]. - The processing fee for lead concentrate remains weak. The primary lead supply pressure is emerging, while demand shows a phased recovery. The price is expected to oscillate. On the supply side, primary lead production is under pressure, and the profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to a profitable level, increasing the expectation of resuming production. On the consumption side, it is gradually improving, with dealers showing good enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories remaining at a low level. In terms of unilateral trading, it is recommended to buy on dips or short volatility. In terms of spreads, the long - short position in the Shanghai lead term has decreased [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LmeS - lead3 closed at 2018, with a weekly increase of 0.17%. The LME lead premium decreased by 3.63, the bonded area lead premium decreased by 2.5, the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged, and the secondary - primary lead spread decreased by 25 [8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2014 to 32,082, the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 1785 to 41,701, the social inventory increased by 800 to 37,700, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,400 to 250,400 [8]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 3334 to 39,642, and the position decreased by 4577 to 40,218. The trading volume of LmeS - lead3 decreased by 7579 to 5988, and the position increased by 6194 to 142,000 [8]. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and other data are presented in the report. The processing fee (TC) of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains weak. The lead concentrate production in 2025 shows a certain trend, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has corresponding changes [26][27]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead in 2025 are presented. The weekly operating rate of primary lead and the production and operating rate of secondary lead also show corresponding trends. The profit of secondary lead smelting has recovered, and the production in many places has increased [31][32]. - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are presented. The profit of secondary lead smelting is maintained at around 200 yuan/ton [38][39][41]. - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots are presented [42]. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries are presented. The consumption of lead - acid batteries is gradually improving, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories remains at a low level [46]. - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows both increasing supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The overall supply pressure of primary lead is significant, while the demand has a notable phased increase. The domestic lead inventory has decreased, reaching a historically low level for the same period. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, and it is advisable to buy on dips. The term spread arbitrage of SHFE lead can be temporarily held [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.18%. The closing price of the night session was also 17,140 yuan/ton, with no change. The LME lead 3-month contract had a closing price of 2,009 dollars/ton last week, a decrease of 0.35%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread was -38.22 dollars/ton last Friday, a change of -2.92 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead was -25 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lead in five locations decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,696 tons to 30,068 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 9,293 tons to 39,916 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons to 36,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 500 tons to 237,000 tons [3][8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last week was 36,308 lots, a decrease of 12,967 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 44,795 lots, a decrease of 15,867 lots. The trading volume of LME lead 3-month contract was 13,567 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8] 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate has been continuously weak. The weekly average spot import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate was -110 dollars/ton. The production of lead concentrate in China, its import volume, consumption, and the inventory in Lianyungang have shown different trends over the years [5][7][27] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, while the profit of recycled lead enterprises has recovered to a profitable level, and the expectation of resuming production has increased. After the maintenance of smelters in regions such as Henan and Inner Mongolia ended, they resumed production, and the operating rate of smelters increased marginally. With the continuous pressure on the price of waste batteries and the presence of smelting profits, some enterprises in regions such as Anhui and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and it is expected that the production of recycled lead will increase significantly in the later stage [7] 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The consumption of lead-acid batteries has improved, the finished product inventory is low, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is at a high level for the year [7] - **End-Use Markets**: The actual consumption of lead has shown different trends over the years, and it is related to the production of end-use products such as automobiles and motorcycles [49]

Report Information - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixian Fei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The primary supply pressure is significant, and the demand has a significant incremental increase in the short - term, which supports the short - term price. The production of primary lead is under pressure, and the profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to the profitable level. The consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally. [6] - From the perspective of supply and demand, domestic lead inventory has decreased from 67,600 tons on September 18th to 46,400 tons on September 25th. The ratio of long - position to inventory of the SHFE Lead 10 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has continued to narrow. It is recommended that existing long positions be held, and new long positions should be cautious. Before the holiday, control the position. In terms of spreads, short - term consumption has improved, and enterprises' restocking has reduced inventory, so the SHFE lead calendar spread arbitrage can be held temporarily. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction - related - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,110 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.20%. The LME lead 3 - month contract's closing price last week was 1,995.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.37%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread increased by 4.65 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [7] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,525 tons from the previous week to 34,764 tons. The SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons. The social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 46,400 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.20% to 10.09%. [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 49,275 lots, an increase of 13,300 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 60,662 lots, an increase of 27,919 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of the LME lead 3 - month contract was 4,919 lots, an increase of 1,192 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week. [7] 2. Supply - related - **Lead Concentrate**: The production of lead concentrate in China, its import volume, actual consumption, and operating rate are presented in the report. The import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate spot has dropped to - 110 US dollars/ton this week, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises is under pressure. [6][27] - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are shown. The profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to the profitable level, and some enterprises in Anhui, Hubei and other regions have started to resume production. [6][32][33] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are included. The price of waste batteries has been under pressure, and smelting is profitable. [6][39][40] - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, monthly import volume of lead ingots, import profit and loss, and export volume of lead ingots are provided. [43] 3. Demand - related - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally, and large lead - acid battery enterprises have increased raw material procurement before the holiday. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries are also presented. [6][46] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles are shown, reflecting the end - user demand for lead. [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the delayed arrival of the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, the lead price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand is weak, but the price has strong bottom support. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices and for calendar spreads in the Shanghai Lead futures [8] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract last week was 16,880 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,870 yuan, with a decrease of 0.06%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,988, with a decrease of 0.20% [9] - **Futures Price - Spot Price Spread Changes**: The LME lead cash - 3 months spread changed from -33.79 to -41.07, a decrease of 7.28. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium changed from -25 to 0, an increase of 25 [9] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract last week was 43,853 lots, an increase of 20,908 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 49,182 lots, an increase of 8,017 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 was 5,890 lots, an increase of 771 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9] - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly from 69,900 tons on August 21st to 67,100 tons on August 28th. The LME lead inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [8][9] Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The import TC of 60% lead concentrate was -90 US dollars/ton this week. The production of domestic lead concentrate and its import volume have shown different trends over the years. The inventory in Lianyungang has also fluctuated [8][27] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, and smelters in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Qinghai are under maintenance. The scope of production cuts for secondary lead enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Jiangxi is expanding due to policy impacts and continuous losses [8] - **By - products of Primary Lead**: The prices of 1 silver and 98% sulfuric acid in the East China region have fluctuated over the years, and the output of silver by - products has also changed [36][37] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and its profitability have all shown different trends over the years [38][39][40][41] - **Imports and Exports**: The net import of refined lead, the import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots have all fluctuated over the years [42] Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - **Batteries**: The peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries has not arrived. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has decreased, and large battery manufacturers have started to reduce prices to transfer inventory to dealers. The export volume of batteries has also changed over the years [8][45] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles, and the total monthly production of motorcycles have all shown different trends over the years [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The logic of lead smelting production cuts is gradually emerging, and the price bottom is rising. The strength analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic lead supply pressure is gradually emerging, but the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved, and the price is expected to show an overall shock. The supply side is more rigid and has a longer time cycle for price influence, so the price bottom support is still strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for positive arbitrage in spot-futures of Shanghai lead [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.66%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.15%. The LME lead 3-month closing price last week was 2,023 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.48%. The LME lead premium has changed, and the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium has decreased [9] - **Inventory**: Domestic lead total inventory has shown a marginal decline, from 73,000 tons on July 31st to 71,100 tons on August 7th. Various lead inventories such as Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory, total inventory, and social inventory have also changed [6][8][9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3-month contract have changed compared with the previous week [9] Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and inventory have shown different trends over the years. The profit of lead concentrate and the treatment charge (TC) have also changed [30][32] - **Primary Lead and Recycled Lead**: The production and operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead have changed over the years. The recycled lead has been in a loss state, and some enterprises will start to cut production [8][36][37] - **By-products**: The prices of primary lead by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid have changed over the years [39] - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory, price, cost, and profit of recycled lead smelting enterprises have changed over the years [43][44][45][46] - **Import and Export**: The net import, import volume, and export volume of refined lead have changed over the years, and the import profit and loss have also changed [47] Lead Demand - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate, finished product inventory days, and export volume of lead-acid battery enterprises have changed over the years [50] - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, automobile production, and motorcycle production have changed over the years [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead production is under pressure, and with the expectation of the consumption peak season, prices will be supported. The supply of primary lead is decreasing, and secondary lead is in continuous loss. As the consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises will rise. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge in the third quarter, supporting price recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - futures arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a decrease of - 0.65%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,037 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.27% [7] - **Spread**: LME lead basis increased by 0.78 dollars/ton compared to the previous week; Shanghai 1 lead spot basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton; the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 125 tons compared to the previous week, and the total inventory increased by 919 tons. Social inventory increased by 2,400 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [7] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract increased by 14,475 lots compared to the previous week, and the position increased by 22,746 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 decreased by 4,557 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The spot import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, lower than last week's level, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/ton, at a historical low [6] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, a smelter in Jiangxi may slightly increase production, and a smelter in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production, but the supply increase is limited [6] - **Secondary Lead**: The smelting profit of secondary lead is in large losses, with enterprises shutting down and resuming production coexisting, and the supply increase is restricted [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: At the end of the month, some battery enterprises are conducting inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, as the consumption peak season approaches in August, the consumption of lead - acid batteries may improve, and the operating rate is likely to rise, with enterprises increasing raw material inventory on dips [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows certain trends, and the production of related end - user products such as automobiles and motorcycles also has corresponding fluctuations [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as having a "strong" outlook, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand contradiction in the lead market will gradually emerge, supporting a strong price trend. The third quarter is expected to see significant supply-demand contradictions, and it is recommended to buy on dips. There are also opportunities for positive spreads in the Shanghai lead futures market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,820 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.49%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,980 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.95%. The LME lead 3-month contract was at 2,063, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread increased by 9.42 to -24.2 [7] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7,183 to 60,084 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 7,186 to 62,335 tons. The social inventory increased by 7,900 to 69,000 tons. The LME lead inventory increased by 19,025 to 268,400 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 6.09% to 27.93% [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 20,173 to 32,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,898 to 50,581 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3-month contract increased by 3,535 to 9,912 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,583 to 136,098 lots [7] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: Domestic lead smelting has been continuously reducing production, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been continuously weakening. The spot import TC of lead concentrate is -55 US dollars/ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, and some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning will enter the annual maintenance period in August [6] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead has decreased, and recycled lead has been in continuous losses. The loss of recycled lead has widened, forcing smelters to cut production. The price of waste battery recycling is relatively firm, and recycled smelters are facing greater production pressure [6] 3. Lead Demand (Lead-Acid Batteries, End-Users) - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has risen to a relatively high level in the same period of history. The hot weather in many parts of the country has increased the replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, driving the continuous increase in the operating rate of enterprises. Although downstream enterprises have not carried out a large amount of raw material replenishment, with the continuous improvement of terminal consumption, enterprises may enter the replenishment cycle [6] - **End-Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles has also increased, indicating that the demand for lead in the end-user market is relatively strong [48]