铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17500元/吨 铅：供需双增，价格区间震荡 五地铅总库存下降，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铅精矿加工费持续弱势 0 500 1000 1500 200 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：假期前企业补库，社会库存下降支撑价格 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17500元/吨 五地铅总库存下降 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-10 10-22 11-03 11-14 11-26 12-08 12-19 12-31 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-1 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月31日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16700-17000元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 ◆ 风险点：东南亚等海外消费崩塌，严重影响中国铅酸蓄电池出口。 五地铅总库存边际回落 再生铅开工率持续走低 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-10 10-22 11-03 11-14 11-26 12-08 12-19 12-31 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The logic of lead smelting production cuts is gradually emerging, and the price bottom is rising. The strength analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic lead supply pressure is gradually emerging, but the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved, and the price is expected to show an overall shock. The supply side is more rigid and has a longer time cycle for price influence, so the price bottom support is still strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for positive arbitrage in spot-futures of Shanghai lead [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.66%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.15%. The LME lead 3-month closing price last week was 2,023 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.48%. The LME lead premium has changed, and the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium has decreased [9] - **Inventory**: Domestic lead total inventory has shown a marginal decline, from 73,000 tons on July 31st to 71,100 tons on August 7th. Various lead inventories such as Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory, total inventory, and social inventory have also changed [6][8][9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3-month contract have changed compared with the previous week [9] Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and inventory have shown different trends over the years. The profit of lead concentrate and the treatment charge (TC) have also changed [30][32] - **Primary Lead and Recycled Lead**: The production and operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead have changed over the years. The recycled lead has been in a loss state, and some enterprises will start to cut production [8][36][37] - **By-products**: The prices of primary lead by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid have changed over the years [39] - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory, price, cost, and profit of recycled lead smelting enterprises have changed over the years [43][44][45][46] - **Import and Export**: The net import, import volume, and export volume of refined lead have changed over the years, and the import profit and loss have also changed [47] Lead Demand - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate, finished product inventory days, and export volume of lead-acid battery enterprises have changed over the years [50] - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, automobile production, and motorcycle production have changed over the years [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead production is under pressure, and with the expectation of the consumption peak season, prices will be supported. The supply of primary lead is decreasing, and secondary lead is in continuous loss. As the consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises will rise. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge in the third quarter, supporting price recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - futures arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a decrease of - 0.65%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,037 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.27% [7] - **Spread**: LME lead basis increased by 0.78 dollars/ton compared to the previous week; Shanghai 1 lead spot basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton; the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 125 tons compared to the previous week, and the total inventory increased by 919 tons. Social inventory increased by 2,400 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [7] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract increased by 14,475 lots compared to the previous week, and the position increased by 22,746 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 decreased by 4,557 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The spot import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, lower than last week's level, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/ton, at a historical low [6] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, a smelter in Jiangxi may slightly increase production, and a smelter in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production, but the supply increase is limited [6] - **Secondary Lead**: The smelting profit of secondary lead is in large losses, with enterprises shutting down and resuming production coexisting, and the supply increase is restricted [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: At the end of the month, some battery enterprises are conducting inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, as the consumption peak season approaches in August, the consumption of lead - acid batteries may improve, and the operating rate is likely to rise, with enterprises increasing raw material inventory on dips [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows certain trends, and the production of related end - user products such as automobiles and motorcycles also has corresponding fluctuations [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as having a "strong" outlook, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand contradiction in the lead market will gradually emerge, supporting a strong price trend. The third quarter is expected to see significant supply-demand contradictions, and it is recommended to buy on dips. There are also opportunities for positive spreads in the Shanghai lead futures market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,820 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.49%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,980 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.95%. The LME lead 3-month contract was at 2,063, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread increased by 9.42 to -24.2 [7] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7,183 to 60,084 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 7,186 to 62,335 tons. The social inventory increased by 7,900 to 69,000 tons. The LME lead inventory increased by 19,025 to 268,400 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 6.09% to 27.93% [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 20,173 to 32,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,898 to 50,581 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3-month contract increased by 3,535 to 9,912 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,583 to 136,098 lots [7] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: Domestic lead smelting has been continuously reducing production, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been continuously weakening. The spot import TC of lead concentrate is -55 US dollars/ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, and some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning will enter the annual maintenance period in August [6] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead has decreased, and recycled lead has been in continuous losses. The loss of recycled lead has widened, forcing smelters to cut production. The price of waste battery recycling is relatively firm, and recycled smelters are facing greater production pressure [6] 3. Lead Demand (Lead-Acid Batteries, End-Users) - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has risen to a relatively high level in the same period of history. The hot weather in many parts of the country has increased the replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, driving the continuous increase in the operating rate of enterprises. Although downstream enterprises have not carried out a large amount of raw material replenishment, with the continuous improvement of terminal consumption, enterprises may enter the replenishment cycle [6] - **End-Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles has also increased, indicating that the demand for lead in the end-user market is relatively strong [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for lead is "Strong" in the medium - term, with a focus on the performance during the consumption peak season [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The losses of secondary lead smelters have been repaired. For primary lead, smelters in Yunnan and other regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply this week. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and the price of waste batteries has increased with the rise of raw materials. Meanwhile, the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, and the losses of smelters have been significantly repaired this week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [5]. - Driven by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of the mid - year node, the downstream replenishment has strengthened marginally. At the mid - year node, some battery enterprises have increased their inventory preparation stage by stage. Coupled with the continued expectation of the subsequent consumption peak season, the inventory replenishment space of enterprises has also marginally expanded. It is expected that there will still be room for demand expansion during the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter [5]. - The supply - demand contradiction may be more prominent in the third quarter, and the price will be on a medium - term upward trend. Currently, the replacement consumption is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, from the demand side, the subsequent strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support. The supply - demand contradiction may gradually become prominent, and the price may fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the peak season in the third quarter [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,170 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,992 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.15%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 22.14 dollars/ton last Friday, an increase of 6.35 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 50 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory last week was 45,885 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous week. The SHFE total lead inventory was 51,929 tons, an increase of 638 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 56,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,425 tons, a decrease of 10,650 tons compared to the previous week, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 25.85%, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 40,650 lots, an increase of 13,772 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 51,800 lots, an increase of 17,693 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 5,471 lots, an increase of 1,635 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 151,106 lots, a decrease of 2,923 lots compared to the previous week [6] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate, domestic production, and inventory data are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows certain fluctuations over the years. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuates, and the operating rate of lead concentrate has its own trend. The processing fees for imported and domestic lead concentrates remain stable this week [24][25]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: For primary lead, smelters in Yunnan and other regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply this week. The production and operating rate of primary lead show certain trends over the years. For secondary lead, the losses of smelters have been repaired this week, and the operating rate has increased. The production of primary lead and secondary lead combined also shows a certain trend [5][26]. - **Waste Batteries**: The supply of waste batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and the price of waste batteries has increased with the rise of raw materials. The price of waste batteries for electric vehicles and the cost of secondary lead show certain trends over the years [5][28] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows certain fluctuations over the years. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries is affected by the consumption peak season expectation and the mid - year node, showing a certain trend. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers also show certain trends [32]. - **End - Users**: The monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles shows certain trends over the years. The actual consumption of lead also shows a certain trend [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The significant losses of secondary lead smelters limit the downside of prices, while weak replacement consumption restricts the short - term upward momentum. In the medium to long term, there is a relatively good risk - reward ratio for long positions, and subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support. Attention should be paid to the mid - year sales push in June and the consumption performance during the peak season in the third quarter [5] Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,945 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.98%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,920 yuan, with a decline of 0.15%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead3 last week was 1,960.5 dollars, with a decline of 0.68% [6] - **Spread**: The LME lead spot premium changed from - 26.98 dollars to - 25.93 dollars, an increase of 1.05 dollars. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 45 yuan to - 35 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [6] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lead warehouse receipts inventory increased by 2,430 tons to 44,229 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons. The social inventory increased by 800 tons to 54,700 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased from 16% to 29.61% [6] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 32,714 lots, an increase of 1,861 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 43,604 lots, a decrease of 6,371 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 last Friday was 5,109 lots, an increase of 539 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 147,029 lots, a decrease of 122 lots [6] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate shows a certain trend over different years. The domestic production of lead concentrate also has its own pattern. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang fluctuates. The processing fees of imported and domestic lead concentrates remain stable, and the profits of lead concentrate smelting have changed [25][26] - **Waste Battery**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and waste battery shells have changed. The cost, profit and loss of secondary lead are affected by waste battery prices, and currently, secondary lead is in a state of significant losses [29] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead shows a certain trend over different years, and the weekly operating rate also fluctuates. The production of by - products such as silver also has corresponding changes [27][28] - **Secondary Lead**: The production of secondary lead shows a certain trend over different years, and the operating rate is currently at a low level. The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises also changes [27][29] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows a certain trend over different years. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises fluctuates, and the finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers also change [33] - **End - User**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles shows a certain trend over different years, and the actual consumption of lead also has corresponding changes [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices moving sideways at the bottom [3] - Low production of recycled lead continues, and lead ingot inventories are accumulating [4] - It is expected that from May to mid - June, downstream demand will be weak, and there will be significant upward pressure. However, the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large, and prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, low - level buying operations can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,915 yuan/ton, with an overnight increase of 0.27%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,944.5 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.41% [6] - **Transaction and Position Changes**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 32,484 lots, an increase of 3,529 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 28,562 lots, a decrease of 4,892 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 3,624 lots, an increase of 829 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 146,138 lots, a decrease of 3,586 lots [6] - **Spread Changes**: The LME lead spot premium last Friday was - 4.45 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.14 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 49,921 tons, an increase of 10,955 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 56,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons compared to the previous week [6] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume and domestic production of lead concentrate showed certain trends from 2021 - 2025. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuated during this period. The import and domestic processing fees and profits of lead concentrate had corresponding changes [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 showed different trends. The production of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid also had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Recycled Lead**: The production of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 showed certain trends. The price of waste batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead, and the raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises also had corresponding changes [28] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2025 showed different trends [32] - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 showed certain trends, and the actual consumption of lead also had corresponding changes [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the lead market has weak supply and demand, with significant upward pressure, but the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large. It is expected to trade in a range. Battery companies, especially large ones, still have room to replenish inventory, which provides support when prices fall. In the second quarter, the supply of waste batteries is in a low - season. As long as demand does not collapse, the cost support of waste batteries remains significant. In the medium - to - long - term, buying at low levels can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [4] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,805 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,950, with a decrease of 0.36%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,880, with a night - session increase of 0.45% [7] - **Transaction and Position Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last Friday was 28,955 lots, a decrease of 5,479 lots from the previous week. The position was 33,454 lots, a decrease of 2,652 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,140 lots, an increase of 1,325 lots from the previous week. The position was 149,724 lots, an increase of 2,660 lots [7] - **Spread Changes**: The LME lead premium changed from - 15.21 to 4.69, an increase of 19.9. The spread between nearby and first - continuous contracts changed from - 40 to 20, an increase of 60 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 291 to 38,966 lots. SHFE total lead inventory increased by 2,718 to 49,504 lots. Social inventory increased by 2,200 to 47,500 tons. LME lead inventory decreased by 10,700 to 253,425 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.40%, a decrease of 2.50% [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelters in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Shandong are under maintenance. The weekly production and operating rate of primary lead are provided in the historical data [6][26] - **Recycled Lead**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss - making situation, with a loss of about 600 yuan/ton. Due to tight raw material supply and losses, most recycled lead smelters reduce production through maintenance, and the weekly production has further decreased [6] - **Waste Battery**: The supply of waste batteries is tight during the consumption low - season, and the price is firm [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The battery market has entered the consumption low - season, with continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory and pressure on the downstream operating rate. It is expected that the low - season consumption will last throughout May, and there may be a possibility of a mid - year sales rush in June [6] - **End - User**: Data on the production of automobiles, motorcycles, and the actual consumption of lead are presented, reflecting the demand situation of the end - user market [33]