美联储12月降息预期再度升温，这一因素也会支撑人民币汇率走强。而年末是传统季节性结汇高峰，有 望继续为人民币汇率提供重要升值动能。今年以来，我国外汇市场在复杂多变的国际局势下保持平稳运 行，表现出较强韧性和活力，市场预期和交易理性有序，人民币汇率经受住了市场波动的考验。展望未 来一段时间，市场普遍看好人民币汇率维持稳定甚至升值的阶段性趋势。随着越来越多的企业树立汇率 风险中性理念，以及汇率风险管理水平稳步提升，价格机制促进市场供求平衡的作用愈发凸显，人民币 汇率稳的基础将进一步夯实。 11月26日，人民币对美元中间价再度上调，创逾一年高点；在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双走 高至7.08附近。近一段时间以来，人民币与美元呈现"双强"格局，美元指数从9月中旬的96左右走强至 100附近；同期人民币对美元汇率震荡上行，反映人民币对一篮子汇率的CFETS人民币汇率指数同样走 强，与众多非美货币相比走出独立行情。 9月以来，人民币对美元汇率曾数次升破7.10。尽管此次能否打破这一关键阻力点位尚需观察，但支撑 人民币走强的因素不断积累。 从基本面看，今年以来，我国经济顶住压力，出口韧性进一步增强，国际收支状况良好。 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable despite fluctuations in the international financial market, with a reported surplus in bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange [1][2] Group 1: Bank Settlement and Sales Data - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange at USD 214.2 billion and sold USD 196.5 billion, resulting in a surplus of USD 17.7 billion, which shows a narrowing trend compared to previous months [1] - The foreign exchange income for clients was USD 623.1 billion, while foreign payments amounted to USD 571.9 billion in the same month [1] - The dollar index increased by 2.1% to 99.8 in October, indicating a general upward trend in the dollar's value [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In September, there was a slight net outflow of cross-border funds due to holiday factors, but October saw an increase in net inflows, with an average monthly surplus of USD 24 billion over the two months [2] - High levels of net inflow from trade funds were maintained, while seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to travel and dividends [2] - Future bank settlement and sales are expected to remain stable, influenced by both domestic economic fundamentals and international market conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with a balanced supply and demand, as indicated by the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) for October, showing a surplus in bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In October, banks settled 214.2 billion USD and sold 196.5 billion USD, resulting in a settlement surplus of 17.7 billion USD, which has narrowed compared to previous months [1] - The settlement and sales rates are consistent with the average levels observed in the first nine months of the year, indicating a more balanced foreign exchange activity [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with a slight net outflow in September due to holiday factors, followed by an increase in net inflows in October, leading to an average monthly surplus of 24 billion USD over the two months [1] - High levels of net inflow from trade in goods were maintained, while seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to travel and foreign enterprise dividends [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The Deputy Director of SAFE, Li Bin, noted an increase in volatility in international financial markets and a general rise in the US dollar index since October [1] - Overall, the expectations for China's foreign exchange market remain stable, with a balanced supply and demand, showcasing strong resilience and vitality [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported data on bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for October, indicating a stable foreign exchange market in China despite increased volatility in international financial markets [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Data - In October, banks settled foreign exchange at $214.2 billion and sold $196.5 billion, resulting in a surplus of $1.77 billion, which has narrowed compared to previous months [1] - The foreign exchange rates for settlement and sales remained consistent with the average levels from the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with a net inflow of capital in October following a slight net outflow in September due to holiday factors [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months was $24 billion, with high levels of net inflow from trade in goods [1] - Seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to travel and dividend payments, while outflows from service trade and investment income decreased compared to previous months [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for October 2025, indicating significant foreign exchange activity in the banking sector [1] Group 1: Bank Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange amounting to 15,194 billion RMB and sold 13,940 billion RMB [1] - From January to October 2025, cumulative bank settlements reached 147,941 billion RMB, while cumulative sales totaled 142,201 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, banks settled 2,142 million USD and sold 1,965 million USD in October 2025 [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, banks settled 20,675 million USD and sold 19,866 million USD [1] Group 2: Bank Customer Foreign Exchange Income and Payments - In October 2025, banks recorded customer foreign exchange income of 44,207 billion RMB and foreign payments of 40,579 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, customer foreign exchange income reached 464,836 billion RMB, while foreign payments totaled 452,607 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, customer foreign exchange income was 6,231 million USD and foreign payments were 5,719 million USD in October 2025 [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, customer foreign exchange income amounted to 64,936 million USD, with foreign payments at 63,227 million USD [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported significant foreign exchange activities in October 2025, with banks settling 15,194 billion RMB and selling 13,940 billion RMB [1] - Cumulative foreign exchange settlements from January to October 2025 reached 147,941 billion RMB, while cumulative sales totaled 142,201 billion RMB [1] Summary by Category Foreign Exchange Settlements - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange amounting to 2,142 billion USD and sold 1,965 billion USD [1] - From January to October 2025, cumulative settlements were 20,675 billion USD, with cumulative sales at 19,866 billion USD [1] Customer-Related Foreign Exchange Income - In October 2025, banks recorded customer-related foreign income of 44,207 billion RMB and foreign payments of 40,579 billion RMB [1] - For the period from January to October 2025, cumulative customer-related foreign income was 464,836 billion RMB, while cumulative payments were 452,607 billion RMB [1] Customer-Related Foreign Exchange Income in USD - In October 2025, customer-related foreign income amounted to 6,231 billion USD, with payments at 5,719 billion USD [1] - Cumulative customer-related foreign income from January to October 2025 reached 64,936 billion USD, and cumulative payments totaled 63,227 billion USD [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in October 2025, banks settled 15,194 billion RMB and sold 13,940 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively from January to October 2025, banks settled 147,941 billion RMB and sold 142,201 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, banks settled 2,142 billion USD and sold 1,965 billion USD in October 2025 [1] - Cumulatively from January to October 2025, banks settled 20,675 billion USD and sold 19,866 billion USD [1] Foreign Exchange Income and Payments - In October 2025, banks recorded foreign-related income of 44,207 billion RMB and foreign payments of 40,579 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively from January to October 2025, banks had foreign-related income of 464,836 billion RMB and foreign payments of 452,607 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, foreign-related income in October 2025 was 6,231 billion USD and foreign payments were 5,719 billion USD [1] - Cumulatively from January to October 2025, foreign-related income totaled 64,936 billion USD and foreign payments amounted to 63,227 billion USD [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In September, the Fed initiated its first rate cut of the year, the US dollar index fluctuated, onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed mixed trends, and the "three - price" unification trend intensified with stable market expectations [2] - The recent RMB appreciation has increased the negative impact on export enterprises' financial conditions, but China's foreign trade growth remains resilient [2] - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow, with securities investment being the main contributor [2] - The enhanced willingness to settle foreign exchange led to a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Rate Cut and RMB Exchange Rate - In September, the Fed started its first rate cut of the year due to increased employment downside risks in the US. The US dollar index first declined and then rebounded, and the RMB exchange rate appreciation slowed down [3] - The RMB central parity rate fluctuated slightly in a narrow range; the onshore and offshore spot exchange rates first rose and then fell. The "three - price" unification trend of the RMB exchange rate intensified, and market expectations were basically stable [4] - The RMB's nominal and real effective exchange rate indices continued to rise, but China's goods export volume still increased year - on - year, indicating that exchange rate changes are not the main factor for China's foreign trade resilience [6] Cross - border Capital Flows - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow. Securities investment was the main contributor [2] - Foreign investors slowed down their reduction of RMB bonds, and the balance of their RMB stocks continued to increase, but different types of foreign capital flow data showed differentiation, indicating a cautious and optimistic attitude towards participating in the A - share market [2] Bank Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - The willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, driving the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales to have a continuous surplus for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] - The change in the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship since March was mainly due to the weakening of market participants' motivation to purchase foreign exchange [2] - In the future, if the exchange rate expectation turns to the appreciation direction, it may trigger a concentrated release of foreign exchange settlement demand [2]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported significant foreign exchange activities for September 2025, with banks settling 1880.9 billion RMB and selling 1518.3 billion RMB [1] - Cumulative foreign exchange settlements from January to September 2025 reached 13274.7 billion RMB, while cumulative sales totaled 12826.1 billion RMB [1] Summary by Category Foreign Exchange Settlements - In September 2025, banks settled foreign exchange amounting to 264.7 billion USD and sold 213.6 billion USD [1] - From January to September 2025, cumulative settlements were 1853.3 billion USD, with cumulative sales at 1790.1 billion USD [1] Customer-Related Foreign Exchange Income and Payments - In September 2025, banks recorded customer-related foreign income of 4840.9 billion RMB and payments of 4862.9 billion RMB [1] - Cumulative customer-related foreign income from January to September 2025 was 42062.8 billion RMB, while cumulative payments were 41202.9 billion RMB [1] Customer-Related Foreign Exchange in USD - For September 2025, customer-related foreign income was 681.2 billion USD, with payments at 684.3 billion USD [1] - Cumulative customer-related foreign income from January to September 2025 reached 5870.5 billion USD, and cumulative payments totaled 5750.8 billion USD [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed stable operation in September 2025, characterized by active and balanced cross-border capital flows and a relatively balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [1][2] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In September, the total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached 1.37 trillion USD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7% [1] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments continued to grow, indicating robust development in China's foreign-related economy [1] - There was a slight net outflow of 3.1 billion USD in September due to seasonal effects from the "National Day" holiday, but this trend reversed to net inflow in October [1] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand - In September, the bank's customer settlement and sales of foreign exchange both saw significant month-on-month growth, with a settlement surplus of 51 billion USD [1] - The net settlement was higher in the first half of September, while the latter half showed a trend towards balance in settlement differences [1] - Since October, the bank's customer settlement and sales have been roughly equal, indicating a basic balance in the foreign exchange market supply and demand [1] Group 3: Overall Foreign Exchange Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, China's total foreign-related receipts and payments reached 11.6 trillion USD, setting a historical record for the same period [2] - There was a net inflow of 119.7 billion USD in cross-border capital, and a settlement surplus of 63.2 billion USD, both exceeding levels from the previous year [2] - Overall, despite a complex external environment, China's foreign exchange market has shown resilience and vitality, with stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand [2]