[ 日本2024年经常项目顺差/GDP为4.5%，环比上升0.9个百分点；2025年前三季度该比例进一步升至 5.1%，连续两年超出国际警戒线。 ] 2025年，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币对美元汇率）逆势走强。尤其是自去年11月底起加速 升值，到年底境内外交易价先后升破7。一时间，结汇潮、重估之旅、新周期之说等又甚嚣尘上。有外 资投行提出，人民币汇率结构性低估，并直言人民币升值是2026年"最高确信度"的交易。国内也有人呼 应，人民币汇率重估将推动中国资产重估。然而，细究上述一系列重大判断，似乎均缺乏数据、事实或 理论的支持。 结汇潮迄今尚缺乏数据支持 2023年7月至2025年2月，人民币汇率总体承压。除2024年8~10月外，其他月份衡量境内主要外汇供求 关系的银行即远期（含期权）结售汇（下称"银行结售汇"）均为逆差。2025年3月起，银行结售汇转为 持续顺差，人民币升值迹象逐步显现，到11月累计顺差2733亿美元。同期，银行代客人民币涉外收付累 计净流出1115亿美元。鉴于涉外人民币外流后部分将通过跨境人民币清算渠道到境内银行间市场购汇平 盘，不纳入银行结售汇统计，故境内外汇实际供过于求缺口小 ...

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美元指数震荡回落，人民币汇率升值加快，但市场预期基本稳定 管涛 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 12月19日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年11月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对11月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 11月份，美联储降息预期大幅摇摆，美元指数结束上月反弹态势，在99至100区间维持震荡，全月回落0.3%至99.4。当月，人民币汇率补涨行情延续：中 间价继续保持渐进升值态势，累计升值91个基点至7.0789比1；在岸即期汇率（境内银行间市场下午四点半交易价，下同）升值加快，累计升值341个基点 至7.0794比1，创2024年10月中旬以来新高；离岸汇率更是较上月末升值了511个基点至7.0713。人民币汇率重回"三价"合一：在岸即期汇率与中间价日均 偏离幅度由上月+0.4%降至+0.3%，离岸与在岸汇率延续强弱互现格局，日均偏离幅度由上月+39个基点转为-2个基点，表明市场预期整体保持基本稳定， 并未积累较强的汇率升值预期（见图表1）。 11月份，滞后3个月环比的即期汇率均值连续第九个月升值，涨幅为0.9%，为近四个月以来新高；滞后5个月环比的即期汇率均值则是连续第七个月升 值，且升值幅度均超1% ...

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB [1] Currency Values - In USD terms, banks settled 2,095 billion USD and sold 1,938 billion USD in November 2025 [1] - From January to November 2025, banks cumulatively settled 22,769 billion USD and sold 21,804 billion USD [1] Foreign Exchange Income and Payments - In November 2025, banks recorded foreign income of 46,372 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,112 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks had foreign income of 511,208 billion RMB and foreign payments of 497,719 billion RMB [1] Foreign Exchange Income and Payments in USD - In USD terms, banks recorded foreign income of 6,545 billion USD and foreign payments of 6,367 billion USD in November 2025 [1] - From January to November 2025, banks had cumulative foreign income of 71,481 billion USD and payments of 69,594 billion USD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's foreign exchange market remains stable, with banks continuing to report a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, indicating resilience in foreign trade and foreign investment [1][5][6] - In November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB, maintaining a surplus with a narrowing gap [1][2] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB, achieving a surplus for seven consecutive months [2][4] Group 2 - In November, banks reported foreign-related income of 46,372 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,112 billion RMB, with a cumulative foreign-related income of 511,208 billion RMB and payments of 497,719 billion RMB from January to November [3][4] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached 1.3 trillion USD in November, with a month-on-month increase of 8%, resulting in a surplus of 17.8 billion USD [5][6] - The USD index weakened overall in November, with a decline of 0.29%, while the RMB appreciated against the USD, particularly in late November [6][7][8] Group 3 - The relationship between RMB appreciation and bank settlement and sales creates a positive feedback loop, supporting each other [8] - Experts suggest that the end of the year will see increased settlement activity due to corporate financial settlements, potentially expanding bank customer settlement scales and providing further support for RMB appreciation [9] - The complexity of factors influencing cross-border capital flows and RMB exchange rates is highlighted, indicating that monthly variations in bank settlement data should not be directly equated with capital flows or exchange rate changes [9]

Group 1 - In November 2025, banks in China reported a foreign exchange settlement of 209.5 billion USD and a foreign exchange sale of 193.8 billion USD, maintaining a stable balance in the foreign exchange market [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative foreign exchange settlement reached 2,276.9 billion USD, while the cumulative foreign exchange sale was 2,180.4 billion USD [1] - In November 2025, the foreign exchange income from non-bank sectors amounted to 654.5 billion USD, with foreign payments totaling 636.7 billion USD, indicating active cross-border transactions [1] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a basic balance in supply and demand, and a settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD in November, consistent with October's figures [2] - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase, with a surplus of 17.8 billion USD, lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD from September to October [2] - The primary source of net capital inflow continues to be merchandise trade, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable, indicating resilience in foreign trade and investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with balanced supply and demand, despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In November, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales remained stable, with a surplus of 15.7 billion USD, comparable to October [1] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] - The cross-border balance of payments recorded a surplus of 17.8 billion USD, lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD in September and October [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Flows - Goods trade continues to be the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [1] - Recent trends indicate that capital flows under securities investment have become more stable [1] - Overall, China's foreign trade and foreign investment show resilience, with stable cross-border capital flows and expectations in the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for November 2025, indicating significant activity in the currency market [1] Group 1: Bank Settlement and Sales Data - In November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB [1] - From January to November 2025, banks cumulatively settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB [1] Group 2: USD Valuation - In USD terms, banks settled 2,095 million USD and sold 1,938 million USD in November 2025 [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, banks cumulatively settled 22,769 million USD and sold 21,804 million USD [1]

Core Insights - In November 2025, banks in China reported a settlement of 14,840 billion RMB and a sale of 13,732 billion RMB, indicating a strong foreign exchange activity [1] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB, reflecting ongoing robust foreign exchange operations [1] Group 1: Bank Settlement and Sale Data - In November 2025, the bank's settlement in USD was 2,095 million, while the sale was 1,938 million [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative settlement in USD reached 22,769 million, with cumulative sales at 21,804 million [1] Group 2: Foreign Payment and Income Data - In November 2025, banks recorded foreign income of 46,372 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,112 billion RMB, showcasing significant international transaction activity [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, cumulative foreign income was 511,208 billion RMB, while cumulative foreign payments totaled 497,719 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Foreign Payment and Income in USD - In November 2025, the foreign income in USD was 6,545 million, and the foreign payments were 6,367 million [1] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, foreign income in USD amounted to 71,481 million, with foreign payments at 69,594 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with a balanced supply and demand, despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In November 2025, banks settled $209.5 billion and sold $193.8 billion in foreign exchange [1] - From January to November 2025, cumulative bank settlements reached $2,276.9 billion, while cumulative sales totaled $2,180.4 billion [1] - The foreign exchange settlement surplus in November was $15.7 billion, remaining consistent with October's figures [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors totaled $1.3 trillion in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] - The cross-border balance recorded a surplus of $17.8 billion, lower than the average surplus of $24 billion in September and October [1] - Goods trade continues to be the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [1]