华福证券 国内宏观和产业政策周观察（1117-1123） 策略定期研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 中电协推出磷酸铁锂成本定期披露制度 投资要点： 本周行业政策聚焦工业提质增效、民生住房保障、科创生态培育与金融 互联互通，全方位夯实经济高质量发展根基。国家及行业层面精准发力，如 商务部等七部门部署茧丝绸产业"东绸西固"、电源行业协会规范磷酸铁锂 市场秩序、财政部提前下达保障性安居工程补助资金，同时芯片设计业保持 高增长态势，中阿跨境支付合作实现突破，为产业升级与开放发展注入动 力。 本周A股各大板块以下跌为主。其中，跌幅前五的是工业贸易与综合 (- 12.10%)、电气设备 (-9.54%)、日常消费零售 (-8.88%)、化工 (-8.53%)、可 选消费零售 (-8.52%)。 本周热门概念中，涨幅排名前十的为水产 (+10.37%)、拼多多合作商 (+7.76%)、中船系 (+5.87%)、操作系统 (+4.94%)、WEB3.0 (+4.20%)、小 红书平台 (+4.16%)、多模态模型 (+2.33%)、虚拟人 (+2.19%)、Kimi (+1.84%)、百度平台 (+1.37%)。跌幅排 ...

Content: --------- <doc id='1'>金融工程日报 A 股单边下行，AI 应用逆势走强、锂电池产业链全线下挫</doc> <doc id='2'>核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251121 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。行业 指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好，综 合、有色金属、基础化工、通信、电子行业表现较差。中船系、水产、小红 书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电 隔膜、盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251121 收盘时有 33 只股票涨停，有 107 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，高开低走，收盘收益为-0.55%，昨日 跌停股票今日收盘收益为-5.58%。今日封板率 61%，较前日提升 10%，连板 率 24%，较前日下降 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251120 两融余额为 24917 亿元，其中融资余额 24744 亿元，融券余额 173 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.1%。</doc> <doc id='3'>折溢价：20251120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是创科技 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是芯 片 ETF 景顺。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 20 亿元，20251120 当 日大宗交易成交金额为 19 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.36%，当日折价率 为 7.71%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货主 力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.48%、3.39%、10.86%、13.39%，当日上 证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.00%，处于近一年来 29%分位点，当 日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 7.08%，处于近一年来 25%分位 点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.69%，处于近一年来 69% 分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.76%，处于近一年 来 80%分位点。</doc> <doc id='4'>机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是九号公司-WD、蓝思科 技、泰恩康、中航重机、沃尔德、超颖电子、宏昌科技、斯菱股份等，九号 公司-WD 被 179 家机构调研。20251121 披露龙虎榜数据中，机构专用席位净 流入前十的股票是天华新能、易点天下、安妮股份、久其软件、榕基软件、 古麒绒材、江龙船艇、荃银高科、华瓷股份、神农种业等，机构专用席位净 流出前十的股票是西藏城投、视觉中国、浪潮软件、德力佳、禾信仪器、中 水渔业、梦天家居、亚通精工、南侨食品、北方长龙等。陆股通净流入前十 的股票是天华新能、江龙船艇、英利汽车、国风新材、久其软件、久之洋、 荃银高科、西藏城投、南侨食品等，陆股通净流出前十的股票是华胜天成、 视觉中国、方大炭素、诺德股份、浪潮软件、易点天下、禾信仪器等。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险；本报告基于历史客观数据统计，不构成投资 建议。</doc> <doc id='5'> | 金融工程·数量化投资 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：张欣慰 | 联系人：李子靖 | | 021-60933159 | 021-60875177 | 021-60933159 021-60875177 zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn lizijing1@guosen.com.cn S0980520060001 相关研究报告 《金融工程日报-A 股高开低走，封板率创近一个月新低》 —— 2025-11-20 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡收红，水产股集体大涨、黄金股午后 拉升》 ——2025-11-19 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡走低，锂电产业链回调、互联网电商 概念逆势走强》 ——2025-11-18 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡下跌，锂矿题材逆势爆发》 —— 2025-11-17 《金融工程日报-沪指冲高回落，算力、半导体产业链领跌》 — —2025-11-14</doc> <doc id='6'>市场表现 宽基与风格指数表现 今日(20251121，下同) 市场全线下跌，规模指数中，上证 50 指数表现较好，上 证 50 指数下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.44%，中证 500 指数下跌 3.46%，中 证 1000 指数下跌 3.72%，中证 2000 指数下跌 3.99%。 板块指数中，上证综指表现较好，上证综指下跌 2.45%，深证综指下跌 3.43%，中 小 100 指数下跌 3.25%，创业板指下跌 4.02%，科创 50 指数下跌 3.19%，科创 100 指数下跌 4.04%，北证 50 指数下跌 4.71%。 风格指数中，沪深 300 价值指数表现较好，沪深 300 价值指数下跌 1.70%，沪深 300 成长指数下跌 2.47%，中证 500 价值指数下跌 3.30%，中证 500 成长指数下跌 3.16%。主要宽基、板块及风格指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='7'>图1：今日宽基、板块与风格指数表现 行业指数表现 今日行业指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好， 收益分别为-0.27%、-0.50%、-0.89%、-1.00%、-1.58%，综合、有色金属、基础 化工、通信、电子行业表现较差，收益分别为-5.41%、-5.30%、-5.26%、-4.59%、 -4.41%，中信一级行业指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='8'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='9'>图2：今日中信一级行业指数表现 概念主题表现 今日中船系、水产、小红书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，收 益分别为 3.51%、0.65%、0.47%、0.42%、0.22%，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电隔膜、 盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差，收益分别为-9.67%、-8.66%、-8.18%、 -8.08%、-7.99%，今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='10'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='11'>图3：今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='12'>市场情绪 日内涨跌停家数 我们统计上市满 3 个月以上的股票在今日盘中的实时涨跌停家数情况。今日盘中 最高有 33 只股票

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

债市方面，国债期货跌幅扩大，30年期主力合约跌0.41%，10年期主力合约跌0.09%，5年期主力合约跌0.05%，2年期主力合约跌0.02%。 商品方面，商品期货开盘多数下跌，黑色系跌幅居前，焦煤跌1.54%，航运期货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌1.19%，贵金属全部上涨，沪银涨 0.60%；化工品多数上涨，橡胶涨0.46%。 9：50 港股高开，恒指高开0.09%，科指涨0.37%。百度集团涨超2%，小鹏汽车涨近2%，小米集团跌近2%。软件类股、黄金股、锂电池股齐涨，航空 股、电力股、铝业股多数低迷。 A股低开，创业板跌0.13%。算力硬件题材走弱，存储器方向领跌；锂电电解液、氟化工、固态电池、SPD概念股走弱。锂矿、水产、黄金概念股 走强。 消息面，中信建投表示，需求的强劲导致碳酸锂月度级别短缺、去库，据Mysteel数据，11月碳酸锂月度供给约11.5万吨，需求12.8万吨，短缺约 1.3万吨，市场持续去库。同时淡季消费不淡，订单支撑可延续至明年，当前碳酸锂供需矛盾已经从供给施压转向为消费驱动。中长期看，储能需 求的持续走强，锂电全产业链迎来一轮涨价，碳酸锂供需基本面也得以大幅改善。静态预测，2026 ...

- The report does not contain any information about quantitative models or factors.

Group 1 - The new energy sector showed localized activity in the afternoon, with lithium battery electrolyte and solid-state battery concepts leading the way. The China Securities New Energy Index rose by 0.6%, while the National Securities New Energy Battery Index increased by 0.1%. Conversely, the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index fell by 0.8%, and the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index decreased by 1.3%. The Energy Storage Battery ETF (159566) saw a net subscription of nearly 100 million units throughout the day. According to Wind data, the Energy Storage Battery ETF (159566) experienced a net inflow of over 900 million yuan in the month leading up to the last trading day [1][4][5] - Huatai Securities indicated that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system, which includes significant development of new energy storage and expedited smart grid construction. The firm remains optimistic about the two core themes of new energy development and the increase in electrification rates, suggesting that companies in the energy storage, wind power, and grid sectors are likely to continue benefiting [1][4][5] Group 2 - The Carbon Neutrality ETF by E Fund tracks the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index, which focuses on the carbon neutrality sector. This index is composed of 100 stocks with significant market capitalization in low-carbon fields such as clean energy and energy storage, as well as high-carbon reduction potential in sectors like thermal power and steel. The index has seen a decline of 0.8% recently, with a rolling market rate of 25.3 times and a valuation percentile of 87.6% since its inception in 2021 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Haike Xinyuan has entered a "surge period" since late September, with its stock price experiencing significant volatility and an increase of over 100% in just eight trading days [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 13, Haike Xinyuan achieved a "20cm" limit-up, closing at 69.22 CNY per share with a turnover rate of 32.53% and a trading volume of 276,700 shares [1]. - The stock price continued to rise on November 14, reaching a historical high of 80.03 CNY during the day and closing at 72.7 CNY, up 5.03% [1]. - The company had been in a prolonged state of decline since its IPO in July 2023, where it was listed at an issue price of 19.99 CNY per share [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Haike Xinyuan reported a revenue of 3.615 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.49%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of -267 million CNY, a decline of 944.35% [6]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to intense price competition in the lithium-ion battery electrolyte solvent market, a decrease in product sales prices and gross margins, and high fixed costs due to low production load at a new facility [6]. - For the first three quarters of the year, the company reported a revenue of 3.653 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 43.17%, and a net profit of -128 million CNY, a reduction in losses by 40.06% [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Haike Xinyuan is recognized as a global leader in lithium battery solvents, with a stable competitive position and an improving industry supply-demand dynamic [7]. - The company is also developing its additives segment, which is beginning to gain traction, with potential for significant profit elasticity due to rising prices in this area [7].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery materials sector, particularly electrolyte materials, has become a focal point of market attention due to significant price increases and rising demand driven by long-term contracts and supply shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - On November 12, the price of vinyl carbonate (VC) surged by 14.81%, leading the price increases in the lithium battery materials sector [1]. - The Wind electrolyte sector saw a daily increase of 10.41% on November 13, with lithium battery stocks dominating the top performers [1]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) rose sharply from approximately 61,000 CNY/ton at the end of September to 107,500 CNY/ton by the end of October, marking a monthly increase of 76% [7][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicates that some electrolyte and battery manufacturers have depleted their VC inventories, leading to a demand surge for replenishment [2]. - Major companies like Tianqi Materials have signed long-term supply contracts, securing significant sales volumes for the coming years [11][12]. - The concentration of LiPF6 production capacity among a few companies (60% held by Tianqi Materials, Molybdenum, and Tianji) has heightened market expectations for price increases due to limited new capacity [9]. Group 3: Investment Outlook and Earnings Projections - Investment institutions have significantly raised their earnings forecasts for companies in the sector, with Tianqi Materials' 2026 profit estimate increased by 234% to 5.179 billion CNY [2][14]. - The Wind lithium battery electrolyte index has approached its 2021 cycle peak following the price increases in November [2][26]. - Despite the stock price surges, the overall supply-demand balance in the electrolyte sector has not yet returned to the levels seen in 2021 and 2022, indicating potential volatility in future earnings [24][29]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - From November 1 to November 13, the average stock price increase for companies in the Wind electrolyte sector was 43.76%, with some companies like Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source seeing increases of 149.53% and 90.95%, respectively [20][22]. - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for continued price increases in related materials, although the stock valuations may be high relative to current earnings [28][29].

11月12日，碳酸亚乙烯酯（VC,电池级）单日上涨14.81%，涨幅位于某行业机构追踪的数百种商品首位；11月13日，Wind电解液板块单日上涨10.41%，涨幅 靠前的行业几乎清一色是锂电股，锂盐、正极材料、负极材料、磷酸铁锂电池…… 无论是大宗商品市场，还是股票市场，以电解液为代表的锂电材料成为近期最受关注的热点行业。 这背后，是上下游企业之间不断签订的长协合同、快速攀升的开工率，与部分细分环节供应不足，所共同带来的行业景气度提升。 根据高工锂电，近期部分电解液和电池厂的VC库存已消耗至低位，出现厂商驻场要货的现象。 强烈涨价预期之下，投资机构对相关上市公司的盈利预期进行了大幅上调。 仅以行业龙头天赐材料为例，华泰证券便上修公司2026-2027年电解液业务出货量、价格和毛利率假设，并将其2026年盈利预期值上调234%至51.79亿元。 虽然业绩尚未兑现，但是包含天赐材料在内的Wind锂电电解液指数，经过11月的上涨后已经接近2021年的周期高点。 策源：六氟磷酸锂飙涨 电解液，由溶质、溶剂和添加剂三部分构成。 其中，溶质是电解液的导电核心，现阶段最常用的是六氟磷酸锂，还有四氟硼酸锂和双氟磺酰亚胺锂。 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis