最近空闲时间玩了无尽冬日，一个流水巨大、广告做得铺天盖地的小程序游戏。里面冷淡一点的服里活跃玩家只有 500 个左右（我基本觉得跟币圈和他一个服的玩家人数也差不多了）然而就这几百个人里，几个联盟围绕着资源和关键战略位的争斗都是比较激烈的，甚至打着打着还会有火气，里面夹杂着一些工作室、以及游戏托的存在在这些争斗和博弈中，由于资源是有限的，玩家往往是零和博弈，所以想赢得 PK 只有氪金。跟币圈现在的存量市场互卷情况有点像了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of the U.S. striving for independence from China in rare earth production while facing significant supply chain challenges, particularly in consumer goods like Christmas trees, which are heavily reliant on Chinese imports [1][10][24]. Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced the production of the first domestically made rare earth magnet in 25 years, attributing this achievement to previous government policies aimed at reducing reliance on China [3][12]. - Despite the announcement, the U.S. still lacks the necessary technology and infrastructure for large-scale rare earth production, with 80% of global processing capacity and 90% of magnet production still in China [12][16]. - The U.S. faces a long road ahead to achieve self-sufficiency in rare earths, with significant cost implications, as Chinese rare earth prices are approximately 25% lower [17][24]. Group 2: Consumer Goods and Supply Chain - The U.S. imports 90% of its Christmas goods from China, particularly from Yiwu, which has started redirecting its products to the EU due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [7][10]. - U.S. Christmas tree imports dropped by 58% in August and 70% in September compared to the previous year, leading to skyrocketing prices for consumers [7][10]. - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly increased costs for American consumers, with a Christmas tree that originally cost $1,000 now potentially costing $2,000 [10][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The tariffs have resulted in an estimated additional annual expenditure of about $800 per American household due to inflation caused by these trade policies [17][19]. - The article emphasizes that the push for "decoupling" from China has led to unintended consequences, affecting everyday consumers rather than achieving the intended political victories [24][25]. - The U.S. is caught in a structural anxiety, wanting to develop high-end industries while still relying on low-end manufacturing from China, highlighting the complexity of the supply chain dynamics [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The United States is using visa restrictions as a tool to exert political and economic pressure on Central American countries that maintain close relations with China, undermining international law and norms [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Reactions - The U.S. Ambassador to Panama stated that U.S. visas are privileges rather than rights, reflecting a condescending attitude [1]. - Panama's President, Laurentino Cortizo, expressed frustration, stating that U.S. actions contradict his desire for good relations with the U.S. [1]. Group 2: International Law and Sovereignty - The U.S. actions are seen as a violation of international law, particularly the principles outlined in the United Nations Charter, which prohibits interference in the internal affairs of sovereign nations [2][3]. - The U.S. is accused of undermining the principle of sovereign equality among nations by using its power to coerce Central American countries [3][4]. Group 3: China-Central America Relations - China's cooperation with Central American countries has been deepening, leading to various development projects that benefit local populations and contribute to regional stability [4]. - The U.S. is perceived as acting against its own interests by attempting to disrupt beneficial relations between China and Central America, which could help alleviate issues like illegal immigration [4]. Group 4: Historical Context - Historical references highlight past U.S. interventions in Panama, suggesting that current actions are part of a long-standing pattern of U.S. dominance and disregard for local sovereignty [5].

中美日前达成了"休战一年的贸易协议"，中方之所以与美方达成协议完全是为了两国百姓，但特朗普可不这么认为。 据外媒报道，特朗普在接受采访时骄傲的认为：中国之所以休战，是因为美国太强大，究竟是谁给特朗普的自信，他这番言论背后又有什么目的？ 特朗普那套"我赢了"的话术，听起来更像是一种心虚的呐喊。因为就在这份协议达成之前，他的后院早已火光冲天。 美国联邦政府刚刚经历了有史以来最长的一次停摆，超过四十天的瘫痪状态，让无数公共服务陷入停滞。这种混乱直接戳破了"让美国再次伟大"的美好愿 景，民众的支持率也随之下滑。 经济上的麻烦更是接踵而至。他引以为傲的关税政策，最终变成了普通家庭账单上不断上涨的数字，消费成本一路飙升。而那些依赖全球供应链的企业，更 是怨声载道，日子过得一天比一天艰难。 更要命的是，他的关税大权甚至在最高法院都面临着合法性的严峻审查。一旦被裁定违宪，政府可能需要退还天文数字般的税款，这将是政治和财政上的双 重灾难。 内外交困之下，急需一个能转移矛盾的"外交突破口"。于是，中美间的这次休战，就被他巧妙地包装成了一场"伟大的外交胜利"。"不是我搞砸了，而是中 国怕我了"，这个故事完美地掩盖了国内的烂摊子。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent news about 105 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experiencing continuous net buying through financing may appear positive, but it raises concerns about potential market manipulation and the risks for retail investors [1][16]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Many investors have a misconception that bull markets guarantee easy profits, but the reality is that the stock market operates as a zero-sum game where gains for some come at the expense of others [3][4]. - During bull markets, retail investors often develop two major illusions: the belief that their stocks will inevitably rise and that market corrections present buying opportunities [4][5]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors actively participate in the market, as indicated by the "institutional inventory" data, which shows that they continue to buy even during price declines [13][16]. - The disappearance of "institutional inventory" during a stock's final adjustment serves as a clear signal for institutions to exit, highlighting the importance of monitoring institutional behavior for retail investors [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Retail investors should avoid path dependence, as historical performance does not guarantee future results, and they must be cautious of relying solely on past trends to make investment decisions [17]. - Utilizing quantitative tools can help retail investors discern the true intentions of market participants and navigate the complexities of the market more effectively [16][17].

广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中国学者：AI这片蓝海容得下中美 也容得下所有想搭智能发展快车的国家 2025年世界互联网大会乌镇峰会日前在浙江乌镇举办。峰会期间，围绕在AI等高技术领域，中国应如 何突破美国试图构建的"小圈子"和"去中国化"生态，中国现代国际关系研究院科技与网络安全研究所所 长李艳在接受中新网采访时表示，当前，尽管中美两国在AI领域的竞争已成既定事实，但面对美国的 敌对政策，中国坚决反对美国主导的"零和博弈"。 她指出，AI代表着未来技术和应用的发展趋势，目前尚处在发展初级阶段，并且未来发展空间非常广 阔。她强调， AI这片蓝海足够宽广，不仅容得下中美两国，也容得下全球所有希望能搭上智能发展快 车的国家。(记者 薛凌桥) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：徐世明 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

Core Insights - The high number of losses in stock index futures trading is attributed to a combination of trading mechanisms and human psychological weaknesses [3][4][6] Group 1: Human Psychological Traps - Emotional decision-making leads to hesitation in stop-loss actions, with many traders holding onto losing positions in hopes of a market reversal, resulting in greater losses [3] - Anxiety over profits causes traders to close positions prematurely, missing out on larger trends [3] Group 2: Leverage Effects - Leverage amplifies mistakes; for instance, a 10x leverage can result in a 30% loss of capital with just a 3% adverse market movement [4] - Margin pressure from leveraged trading can lead to forced liquidation during market downturns, disconnecting traders from potential rebounds [5] Group 3: Market Characteristics - The nature of the market is a zero-sum game, where gains for some traders mean losses for others, often leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [6] - A significant portion of traders struggle to differentiate between ranging and trending markets, leading to frequent stop-loss executions in sideways markets and missed opportunities in trending markets [6] Group 4: Trading Costs and Strategies - Price volatility in futures markets can lead to discrepancies between expected and actual closing prices, contributing to losses [8] - Transaction costs, including commissions and fees, can erode profits and exacerbate losses [8] - Effective trading strategies and risk management are crucial; inadequate planning can lead to significant losses [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the evolving U.S.-China trade relations, particularly under Trump's administration, highlighting a shift from tariffs to temporary agreements while maintaining a confrontational stance towards China [1][3][4] - The U.S. has seen an increase in average tariffs to 50%, more than double the rates during Biden's presidency, indicating a more aggressive trade policy [3] - Trump's strategy appears chaotic but follows a consistent pattern aimed at countering China's rise, as evidenced by his 2017 National Security Strategy labeling China as a "revisionist power" [4][11] Group 2 - Trump's unpredictability is a key tactic, oscillating between friendly gestures and increased sanctions, which has led to a decline in trust among U.S. allies, particularly Japan [6] - The "America First" policy underpins Trump's actions, including imposing tariffs on allies and leveraging trade negotiations to boost domestic manufacturing [6][11] - Despite the aggressive tariff strategy, the U.S. trade deficit has increased from $760 billion in 2016 to $1.21 trillion in 2024, suggesting that the tariff war has not achieved its intended economic outcomes [6][9] Group 3 - The rise of the "losing out" narrative in the U.S. reflects a shift in perception regarding trade with China, as many believe that previous policies have undermined American manufacturing [8] - Trump's approach contrasts with traditional politicians who often seek long-term strategies, focusing instead on immediate trade victories and leveraging public sentiment against globalization [9][11] - The complexity of global economic structures challenges Trump's simplistic "zero-sum game" assumptions, as countries begin to respond more assertively to U.S. pressure [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tensions between the U.S. and China following a meeting in South Korea, highlighting China's willingness to make concessions while the U.S. responds with threats, indicating a lack of understanding and respect for diplomatic relations [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's threats against China after receiving concessions reflect a short-sighted tactical approach, undermining the potential for cooperation [3][4]. - The U.S. has labeled China as an "unreliable partner," revealing its own insecurities and lack of confidence in the negotiation process [3][6]. - The U.S. approach of issuing threats while receiving concessions creates discomfort and raises questions about China's commitment to fulfilling agreements [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Leverage - Traditional economic leverage, such as tariffs, is losing effectiveness as China's export markets diversify and U.S. industries become increasingly reliant on Chinese materials [6][9]. - The lack of a clear framework for what constitutes "fulfilling commitments" complicates trust-building and adds uncertainty to the execution of agreements [7][12]. - The U.S. dollar's dominance is facing challenges due to domestic economic pressures and a global trend towards "de-dollarization," with increasing use of the Chinese yuan [9][10]. Group 3: Technological and Financial Tools - U.S. attempts to block Chinese access to advanced technologies have inadvertently strengthened China's domestic industries, showcasing resilience and self-sufficiency [10][11]. - The U.S. has employed all available leverage tools against China's rare earth policies, indicating a shift in the balance of power in the ongoing competition [11][12]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - China's consistent record of fulfilling commitments since joining the WTO contrasts with the U.S.'s recent history of withdrawing from agreements, highlighting a credibility gap [12][13]. - The article suggests that future negotiations will depend more on stability and trust rather than coercive tactics, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to achieve mutual understanding [13].

中美经贸领域"合则两利、斗则俱伤"的特征十分突出。 中美经贸关系作为全球最重要的双边经济纽带之一，其本质是建立在资源互补与市场共享基础上的互利 共赢关系。中美经贸领域"合则两利、斗则俱伤"的特征十分突出。过去几年，由美国发起的对华贸易 战，从关税摩擦到技术封锁，从供应链"脱钩"到市场准入限制，让以往作为双边关系"压舱石"的经贸往 来成为了大国博弈的主战场，双边经贸关系经历了剧烈的摩擦，给双方以及全球经贸发展都带来巨大的 挑战。因此，不仅中美，全球都在关注中美经贸未来的走向。通过中美双方团队在吉隆坡经贸磋商中达 成的相关共识与安排，更让我们看到那些支撑"中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢"的论据依旧坚挺且值得 重视。 总之，中美经贸关系绝非"零和博弈"。过去几十年的发展已经说明，从宏观经济结构互补，到中观产业 链深度融合，再到微观消费市场相互依存，中美通过经贸合作，各自获得了巨大的发展红利，实现了真 正意义上的互利共赢。期待未来双方认真落实两国元首达成的共识，继续本着平等、尊重、互惠的原则 谈下去，不断压缩问题清单，拉长合作清单，让经贸继续成为中美关系的压舱石和推进器。 （本文作者为中国社科院美国研究所助理研究员 刘 ...