Industry Investment Rating - Neutral | Maintain [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall operating performance of listed banks improved significantly in the first half of 2025, driven by the expansion of interest-earning assets and a low base effect from the previous year. However, the decline in net interest margin was the only drag on net profit attributable to shareholders [5][13] - The growth rate of interest-earning assets for listed banks was 9.77% year-on-year, with stable credit growth and ongoing demand for bond allocation. City commercial banks showed the most significant expansion, while rural commercial banks faced some pressure in deposit collection [5][6] - The trend of declining net interest margin has stabilized, with a slight decrease of 1.4 basis points to 1.35% in the first half of the year. The overall trend is expected to stabilize, and pressure on net interest margin is anticipated to ease in the second half of the year [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery Driven by Scale, Net Interest Margin as Main Drag - In the first half of 2025, the overall revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks grew by 1.04%, 1.08%, and 0.80% respectively, showing a recovery compared to the first quarter [13] - City commercial banks outperformed other types of banks in terms of revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit [13] 2. Significant Growth in Interest-Earning Assets, Weak Loan Demand - The year-on-year growth rate of interest-earning assets for listed banks was 9.77%, with stable credit growth and ongoing demand for bond allocation [5][6] 3. Stabilization of Declining Net Interest Margin Trend - The net interest margin for listed banks decreased by 1.4 basis points to 1.35% in the first half of the year, but the overall trend is stabilizing [5][6] 4. Bond Market Fluctuations Affect Non-Interest Income, Net Fee Growth Turns Positive - Non-interest income for listed banks increased by 7.01% in the first half of 2025, with significant contributions from other non-interest income [6] 5. Overall Asset Quality Stable, Credit Costs Decline Year-on-Year - The non-performing loan ratio for listed banks remained stable at 1.23%, with a slight increase for rural commercial banks [6] 6. Investment Recommendations - Focus on banks with significant deposit maturity and potential for net interest margin improvement, such as Bank of Communications and Chengdu Bank [7] - Consider state-owned banks benefiting from consumer loan interest subsidy policies, such as China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [7]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxia Bank reported a decline in both operating income and net profit for the first half of 2025, highlighting significant operational challenges and compliance issues [1][2]. Financial Performance - Operating income for the first half of 2025 was 45.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86% [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.47 billion yuan, down 7.95% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 11.30 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.05% [1]. - Net interest income fell to 30.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 67.16% of total operating income [2]. Income Structure and Profitability - The net interest margin decreased from 1.61% to 1.54%, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability due to a narrowing interest spread [2]. - Non-interest income saw a significant decline, with investment income dropping by 22.64% to 8.69 billion yuan, largely due to losses in the fair value changes of financial investments [4]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained high at 1.60%, with a declining provision coverage ratio from 161.89% to 156.67% [6]. - Personal loans, particularly non-mortgage loans, exhibited increased risk, with a non-performing rate of 3.07% compared to 1.21% for mortgage loans [7]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratios showed a downward trend, with the capital adequacy ratio at 13.07%, down 0.37 percentage points from the beginning of the year [9]. Compliance and Regulatory Issues - Huaxia Bank faced significant regulatory penalties, including an 87.25 million yuan fine for various compliance failures, indicating systemic issues in internal controls [8][9]. - The bank's branches collectively faced penalties exceeding 11.80 million yuan, primarily related to inadequate credit management practices [8]. Strategic Outlook - The management plans to enhance asset quality management, optimize credit policies, and strengthen internal controls to address ongoing challenges [10]. - The bank's ability to adapt to the changing market environment and improve its risk management and compliance frameworks will be critical for restoring market confidence [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) is rated as "Buy" due to its optimized capital structure, strong non-interest income performance, and good asset quality [1][1][1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the optimization of the capital structure opens new space for capital replenishment [1] - It notes that the performance of non-interest income effectively offsets the pressure from interest margin [1] - The asset quality is described as excellent, with sufficient risk compensation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector's allocation value, suggesting continued investment interest in the sector [4][10]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of listed banks in the first half of 2025 shows a marginal improvement in revenue and profit margins, with year-on-year growth of 1.0% in revenue and 0.8% in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][5]. - The recovery in the bond market during the second quarter has alleviated some of the pressures on bond investment returns, contributing to the overall performance improvement [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector's revenue and net profit growth will remain around 1% year-on-year for 2025, despite ongoing pressures on the banking fundamentals [4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, listed banks experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.0% and a net profit growth of 0.8%, with quarter-on-quarter improvements of 2.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively [4][5]. - The growth in interest-earning assets was 9.7% year-on-year, with a stable credit growth of 8% and a significant increase in financial investments by 14.9% [4][11]. - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.33%, showing a year-on-year decline of 13 basis points, which is less than the decline seen in the same period last year [4][5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income showed a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in other non-interest income and a 3.1% increase in fee income [4][5][10]. - The report highlights that the recovery in the capital market has contributed to the improvement in non-interest income [4][10]. Asset Quality - The report notes that while the non-performing loan ratio remains stable, there is an increase in the generation rate of overdue and non-performing loans, particularly in retail banking [4][10]. - The provision coverage ratio remained stable, with an increase in provisioning efforts during the first half of 2025 [4][10]. Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, but signs of a potential turning point are emerging, with improved net interest margins and non-interest income [4][10]. - The report suggests that the demand for bank stocks will increase from long-term funds, driven by favorable policies encouraging investment in the banking sector [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with major indices falling significantly, while bank stocks showed resilience, particularly Agricultural Bank of China reaching a historical high [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25% to 3765 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.83%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.25%, and the STAR 50 Index declined by 6.08% [1] - Bank stocks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank, saw gains, with Agricultural Bank rising over 5% to a new historical high [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Bank ETFs and related funds saw increases of over 1%, with specific funds like Bank ETF and Bank ETF Fund rising by 1.04% and 1.02% respectively [3] - The Bank ETF tracks the CSI Bank Index, which includes 42 listed banks, focusing on high dividend opportunities and growth potential [4] Group 3: Financial Metrics - In the first half of 2025, listed banks reported a total operating income of 2.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.10 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [4] - The net interest margin for listed banks decreased by 14 basis points year-on-year to 1.41%, with expectations of a slight narrowing in the decline due to policy changes [4] Group 4: Asset Quality and Growth - Asset quality pressure has slightly increased, with rising overdue rates and non-performing loan generation rates, particularly in the retail sector [5] - Total assets of listed banks grew by 9.6% year-on-year as of the end of Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in growth rates [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to see a bottoming out in 2025, with potential for revenue and profit growth to turn positive in 2026, driven by policy support and improved asset quality [6] - The emphasis on long-term investment in the banking sector remains strong, with recommendations for diversified allocations focusing on banks with high dividend yields and solid asset quality [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the first half of 2025 will see listed banks' total operating income reach 2.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The growth rates for both income and net profit have rebounded compared to the first quarter, primarily due to a decline in market interest rates in the second quarter and a reduction in the drag from other non-interest income on net profit growth [1]. Income and Profitability - The overall net interest margin for listed banks decreased by 14 basis points year-on-year to 1.41%, a decline similar to the 13 basis points drop in the first quarter, but less than the 17 basis points decline in 2024. On a quarterly basis, the net interest margin fell by 4 basis points from the first to the second quarter. The company expects the net interest margin to continue to narrow for the year due to the impact of LPR cuts and weak credit demand, although the decline is expected to be slightly lessened by a drop in deposit rates in May [1]. Asset Quality - The pressure on asset quality is slightly increasing, primarily indicated by rising overdue rates and an increase in the rate of non-performing loans, particularly in the retail sector. Provisioning efforts have intensified, with the ratio of loan loss provisions to non-performing loans rising to 106%, although this remains at a historically low level [2]. Asset Scale - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total assets of listed banks grew by 9.6% year-on-year, with growth accelerating compared to the first quarter, particularly among the six major banks and city commercial banks [3]. Non-Interest Income - After three years of adjustment, net fee income has rebounded in the first half of this year. Other non-interest income saw a significant decline in growth in the first quarter due to rising market interest rates, but this growth rate has improved again following a decline in market interest rates in the second quarter [4]. Industry Outlook - The company believes that 2025 may mark the end of the current earnings downturn cycle for the banking sector. While net interest margin remains the largest source of pressure, asset quality is also facing slight challenges. With policy support for net interest margins and the impact of deposit rate adjustments in May, the decline in net interest margins is expected to narrow. Additionally, with the clearing of existing non-performing loans, 2026 may see a turning point in the generation of retail loan non-performing loans. Overall, 2025 is viewed as a year of bottoming out, with potential upward inflection points for revenue and profit growth in 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Changsha Bank reported steady growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 1.59% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 5.05%, marking the first interim dividend since its listing [2][3][10] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, Changsha Bank's operating income was 13.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.59%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.329 billion yuan, up 5.05% [3] - The bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.87%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, and net interest spread fell to 1.97%, down 0.30 percentage points [4] Income Structure - The contribution of net interest income to total revenue is declining, with net interest income at 9.659 billion yuan, down 1.74% year-on-year, accounting for 72.90% of total revenue, down from 75.37% in the same period last year [4] - Non-interest income reached 3.590 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, driven primarily by investment income and net commission income, which grew by 118.82% and 14.60%, respectively [4][5] Investment Income - Investment income accounted for 88.69% of non-interest income, totaling 3.184 billion yuan, a significant increase of 118.82%, mainly due to gains from trading financial assets and other debt investments [5][6] - The balance of trading financial assets increased by 65.07% year-on-year to 182.429 billion yuan, with investment income from these assets rising by 62.31% [6][7] Market Conditions and Strategy - Despite a challenging bond market characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, Changsha Bank aims to enhance both investment scale and returns through strategic fund management [8][9] - The bank's investment strategy has shifted significantly since its listing, with investment income growing from 0.407 billion yuan in 2018 to 3.184 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, increasing its revenue share from 2.92% to 24.03% [8] Dividend Announcement - Changsha Bank's board approved a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 804 million yuan, which represents 18.58% of net profit attributable to shareholders [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [8]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a recovery in performance, with revenue and net profit growth of +1.0% and +0.8% year-on-year for H1 2025, respectively, indicating an improvement compared to Q1 2025 [14][29]. - Key focus areas include accelerated non-loan driven expansion, stable credit issuance, a recovery in deposits from a low base, narrowing interest margin declines leading to a recovery in net interest income, improved growth in non-interest income, and ongoing retail risk clearance [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The banking sector has experienced a slight rebound with a +13.4% absolute return year-to-date as of August 29, 2025, although it slightly underperformed the broader market [13]. - The report anticipates a potential divergence in sector performance, favoring high-quality regional banks and high-dividend Hong Kong-listed banks for investment [13]. Profitability Breakdown - The net interest margin for listed banks was measured at 1.41% for H1 2025, showing a slight improvement from Q1 2025 [3][14]. - Non-interest income has seen a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in H1 2025, driven by a recovery in capital markets [3][15]. - The report highlights a need to monitor interest rate risks due to recent market volatility [3][15]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets and liabilities for listed banks grew by +9.6% year-on-year as of H1 2025, with significant contributions from non-loan driven growth [2][16]. - The report notes a recovery in deposits, with a year-on-year increase of +8.3% in H1 2025, attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [2][17]. Risk Assessment - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.23% as of H1 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 238% [4][18]. - The report indicates a slight increase in retail loan NPLs, suggesting ongoing monitoring of retail credit risks [4][18]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the narrowing of interest margin declines and reduced non-interest income volatility will support revenue and profit growth for banks in the near term [5][14]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying quality stocks with structural opportunities in the banking sector, particularly those with strong performance and growth potential [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major state-owned banks in China showed improvement in the first half of 2025, with total operating income exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan and net profit reaching 682.5 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in revenue growth [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The six major state-owned banks achieved a year-on-year increase in operating income, with non-interest income becoming increasingly significant in their revenue structure [1] - China Bank reported an operating income of 329 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.76%, with non-interest income growing by 26.43%, which was a key driver for its revenue increase [1] Group 2: Non-Interest Income Contributions - Non-interest income accounted for over 30% of total operating income, with contributions steadily increasing [2] - China Bank's non-interest income growth was attributed to wealth management, stable fee income, and financial market opportunities, with significant increases in various fee categories [2] - Construction Bank's non-interest net income reached 99.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.93%, with non-interest income making up 25.7% of total operating income [3] Group 3: Other Major Banks' Performance - Agricultural Bank's non-interest income grew by 12.1% to 87.3 billion yuan, with fee income increasing by 10.1% [4] - Postal Savings Bank's intermediary business income returned to double-digit growth at 11.59%, with significant contributions from non-interest income [4] - Industrial and Commercial Bank reported an operating income of 409.1 billion yuan, a 1.8% increase, with non-interest income contributing positively despite a slight decline in interest income [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the performance of listed banks has significantly improved in the first half of 2025, with total operating income exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan and net profit exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan [1][2] - Non-interest income has played a crucial role in supporting the improvement of bank performance, with notable growth in banks like Jiangyin Bank and Changshu Bank, which achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in both operating income and net profit [1][2][3] - The net interest margin (NIM) remains a concern for the banking sector, with management from various banks indicating that while there is still downward pressure on NIM, the rate of decline is expected to gradually stabilize [1][4] Group 2 - Major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China reported the highest operating incomes in the first half of the year, with figures of 427.09 billion yuan, 394.27 billion yuan, 369.94 billion yuan, 329.00 billion yuan, and 179.45 billion yuan respectively [2] - In terms of net profit, the top five banks were also led by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with a net profit of 168.10 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank at 162.08 billion yuan, Agricultural Bank of China at 139.51 billion yuan, Bank of China at 117.59 billion yuan, and China Merchants Bank at 74.93 billion yuan [2] - Jiangyin Bank and Changshu Bank reported impressive growth rates in their financial performance, with Jiangyin Bank's operating income growing by 10.45% and net profit by 16.63%, while Changshu Bank's operating income increased by 10.10% and net profit by 13.51% [2][3] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as an opportunity for banks, with expectations that it will help stabilize the decline in net interest margins [4] - The policy is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on asset yields in the banking sector, although it may also present challenges due to varying implementation across different regions and banks [4] - Long-term, the "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve supply-demand relationships, benefiting corporate profitability and driving financial resources towards high-end manufacturing and green economy sectors, which could help banks optimize their asset and client structures [4]