光伏反内卷进展更新 20250724 摘要 光伏行业反内卷主线正在形成，受益于产能接近出清、政策关注度高及 估值相对偏低等因素，光伏行业具备较高赔率，但需关注提振需求政策 的配合程度。 光伏消纳瓶颈并非电网建设不足，而是物理约束导致，需通过光储技术 或新型电力系统建设解决，否则将导致新增与现有容量的"内卷"竞争。 当前光伏反内卷与 2016 年供给侧改革存在差异，规格较低，民营企业 资本开支占比高，中央财政介入难度大，且光伏技改投入持续，整合难 度较大。 解决光伏行业库存和现场管理问题是缓解价格压力的关键，中国硅料占 全球市场主导地位，海外市场难以充分替代。 光伏未来发展方向在于通过光储/风光储一体化提高利用小时数，实现稳 定供电，降低成本，提升新能源在用户侧的经济性。 硅料价格受人民日报文章及限价措施影响波动，龙头企业报价与主流成 交价存在差距，期货市场筹码结构紧张，生产企业挺价意愿强烈。 光伏行业面临产能过剩、资金压力和技术迭代挑战，需收储或退出部分 产能，资金来源及估值成为难题，政策落地时间可能与市场预期存在偏 差。 Q&A 光伏行业当前面临消纳瓶颈，这与电网建设不足无关，而是由于物理约束导致。 当中国 ...

中国水力发电行业在能源安全、"双碳"目标实现及流域治理中地位关键。截至2025年初，水电总装机容量超4.2亿千瓦，抽水蓄能装机突破5500万千瓦，行 业从规模扩张转向存量优化与高质量发展。 产业链涵盖上游规划设计（由中国电建、能建旗下研究院主导）、中游装备制造（哈电、东电掌握百万千瓦级机组技术）、下游电站运营（长江电力等企业 为主体）。"西电东送"工程解决资源与负荷分布不均问题，但面临输电成本等挑战，电力市场化改革也影响着水电上网电价。 市场由央企主导，地方能源平台参与。区域布局集中在西南，金沙江、雅砻江等流域梯级开发成效显著，雅鲁藏布江下游开发成战略重点。常规水电聚焦增 效改造与生态保护，抽水蓄能因电网调节需求加速发展，2030年规划装机达1.2亿千瓦。 技术上，中国在高坝建设、巨型机组制造等领域全球领先，智能水电站和梯级水库调度技术应用广泛。企业积极拓展海外市场，但面临政治、经济等风险。 行业面临生态保护、移民安置等挑战，也迎来"水风光储"一体化、抽水蓄能扩张等机遇。报告建议政府完善政策，企业推进转型，投资机构关注相关领域机 会，共同推动行业发展。 MCR嘉世咨询 2025 中国水力发电行业现状报告 Re ...

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project marks a significant milestone in China's energy revolution and ecological development, with an estimated total investment exceeding 2 trillion yuan, making it the largest hydropower project in human history [3][6][16]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with potential additional investments bringing the total to over 2 trillion yuan [3][6]. - The project will consist of five hydropower stations with an installed capacity of 60-70 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [6][8]. - The project is expected to take 12-15 years to complete and will play a crucial role in China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategy [6][16]. Group 2: Key Beneficiaries - The China Three Gorges Corporation will be the largest shareholder of the newly established Yajiang Group, holding 35% of the shares, and is expected to be the primary beneficiary due to its extensive experience in hydropower construction and operation [7][8]. - China Huaneng Group is also positioned to benefit significantly, leveraging its established presence in the region and its extensive hydropower assets [8][9]. Group 3: Engineering and Construction - China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation are identified as the main engineering forces for the project, with expertise in large-scale hydropower construction [10][12]. - The project will utilize innovative construction techniques to address challenging geological conditions, including a total tunnel length exceeding 50 kilometers and a maximum depth of 3,000 meters [11][12]. Group 4: Supporting Infrastructure - The project will be complemented by the construction of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines, including the recently approved "Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area ±800 kV DC project," which will facilitate the long-distance transmission of electricity [14][15]. - The anticipated investment for the HVDC infrastructure could reach approximately 600 billion yuan, indicating significant future capital requirements for supporting the hydropower project [15][16].

7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式在西藏自治区林芝市举行。该工程位于西藏自治区林芝 市，将建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2万亿元。该工程电力以外送消纳为主，兼顾西藏本地自用需求。 努曼陀罗商业战略咨询创始人霍虹屹表示："雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程不仅是一项重大水利水电工程， 更是一项具有战略全局意义的国家级基础设施。该工程不仅有助于优化全国能源结构、提升非化石能源 占比，也将极大增强我国西南水电的战略调度能力，为构建'全国一张网'的统一电力市场提供强大支 撑。同时，该工程的实施将大幅拉动西藏及其周边区域的产业发展，创造大量就业机会，并有效提升西 藏自身能源保障水平与自我造血能力，它是一次真正意义上的'以大工程促大发展'。" 从产业经济方面来看，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程的开工建设将为多个行业的发展产生积极影响。 科技部国家科技专家库专家周迪向《证券日报》记者表示，工程建设将带动多个行业受益。首先是电力 设备制造业，包括水轮发电机组、变压器等需求将会激增；其次是工程建设行业，包括建筑施工、工程 机械等；最后是输变电行业，需要建设大规模电力外送通道。此外，该工程还将带动当地旅游、交通、 物流等配套产业发展，为西藏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a favorable water inflow at the Wudongde reservoir, with a total inflow of approximately 39.964 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, which is 9.01% higher than the same period last year [3]. - The total power generation from the company's six domestic hydropower stations reached approximately 126.656 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5.01% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company is actively investing in pumped storage projects and integrated renewable energy bases, with a total investment of no more than 7.739 billion yuan for the Jiangxi Xunwu pumped storage power station project [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35.102 billion yuan, 36.981 billion yuan, and 38.831 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 19.8, and 18.9 [4][6]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is 86.242 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2% compared to the previous year [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.43 yuan, with a steady increase in subsequent years [6].

为推动新一代煤电全方位升级，北仑电厂在一期改造项目中投入1.6亿元，开展1000兆瓦超超临界二次 再热机组低碳高效灵活协同关键技术研究，创新实施12级回热、烟气余热高效利用、新一代脱硫除尘一 体化等10余项技术，有效提升机组整体能效。同时，利用多能互补和储能耦合技术，实现火、风、光、 储多能协同和工业供热经济性的同步优化，厂内2台6.25兆瓦风电与47.57兆瓦光伏全部接入电网，实现 绿电100%消纳。试运行期间，8号机组平均负荷率达100.1%；各项性能指标优异；颗粒物、二氧化硫、 氮氧化物的平均排放浓度分别为0.6、5、16毫克每标准立方米，达到国内同类型机组领先。 北仑电厂是我国首家利用世界银行贷款建设的火电厂，首台机组于1991年建成投产，截至今年6月已累 计完成发电量超6700亿千瓦时。2009年起北仑电厂实施全厂对外供热，2011年完成国内首台背压机驱动 引风机改造，2012年完成国内首台600兆瓦机组增容提效改造，2020年完成国内首台1000兆瓦机组增容 提效改造，2021年全面完成7台机组汽轮机通流改造，2024年实现厂内"火风光储"多能联动。 记者6日从国家能源集团获悉，当日国能浙江北仑电 ...

2025 年 06 月 30 日 充电模块领先企业，探索新兴应用领域 —优优绿能（301590.SZ）公司动态研究报告 买入(首次) 投资要点 | 分析师：张涵 | S1050521110008 | | --- | --- | | zhanghan3@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：罗笛箫 | S1050122110005 | | luodx@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2 0 2 5-0 6-2 7 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 160.66 | | 总市值（亿元） | 67 | | 总股本（百万股） | 42 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 8 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 150.38-168.5 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 462.2 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 优优绿能 沪深300 相关研究 ▌充电模块领先企业，探索新兴应用领域 公司已推出 15/20/30/40kW 充电模块，是行业内较早提出上 述功率产品的一线充电模块厂商。目前，20/30KW 充电模块 ...

"宁波膜智信息科技有限公司"为势银（TrendBank）唯一工商注册实体及收款账户 势银研究： 势银产业研究服务 势银数据： 势银数据产品服务 势银咨询： 势银咨询顾问服务 重要会议： 2025势银绿氢产业大会（7月16-17日，江苏·无锡） 点此报名 重要会议： 2025势银（银川）长时储能产业大会（7月2日-3日，宁夏·银川） 点此报名 添加文末微信，加 长时储能 群 在"双碳"目标驱动下，全球储能市场正经历爆发式增长。国家能源局新闻发布会上提及，截至2024年 底，全国已建成投运新型储能项目累计装机规模达7376万千瓦/1.68亿千瓦时，约为"十三五"末的20 倍，较2023年底增长超过130%。 政策层面，至少11个省/市/自治区将新型储能纳入碳达峰方案，多省/市/区发布新型储能发展规划、实 施方案及指导意见。同时，随着容量电价补贴、现货市场参与规则等机制逐步完善，储能正从"辅助 角色"向"主体能源"转型。 当前，中国储能市场呈现鲜明的区域特征：东部沿海聚焦工商业储能与虚拟电厂，西北内陆则依托风 光资源打造"风光储氢"一体化基地。 这种差异化布局中，宁夏凭借独特的资源禀赋与政策创新，正成 为西部风光氢 ...

Core Viewpoint - Long Jiang Business News reports that Xinjiang Li New Energy Co., Ltd. has announced a significant fundraising plan, aiming to raise over 1.8 billion yuan for wind power project construction and working capital supplementation [1] Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Plans - The company plans to issue up to 280 million A-shares, raising a total of 1.829 billion yuan, with 75.78% of the funds allocated to the "Li New Energy Santanghu 200,000 kW/800,000 kWh storage scale + 800,000 kW wind power project" [3] - The total investment for the Santanghu wind power project is 3.117 billion yuan, with 1.386 billion yuan coming from the current fundraising [3] - The company will also invest approximately 1.258 billion yuan in three independent storage projects, totaling an investment of 1.25 billion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Company Growth and Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's total assets reached 15.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.13% [7] - The total installed capacity of the company reached 2.234 million kW by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.06% [2][7] - The company reported a revenue of 217 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.23% increase year-on-year, but a net loss of 9.364 million yuan, a decline of 166.51% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Huaneng Hydropower (600025) is focusing on clean energy development in Yunnan, with a strong growth outlook supported by ongoing reforms and operational improvements [1][2] Company Performance - In 2024, Huaneng Hydropower achieved a total electricity generation of 1,120.12 billion kWh, ensuring energy supply for economic development [2] - The company reported a reduction in financial expenses by 0.56 billion yuan year-on-year, and issued green bonds worth 6.14 billion yuan at low interest rates, enhancing capital management [2] - The water and wind power integration has improved operational efficiency, with over 80% of hydropower plants meeting first-class standards [2] Growth Prospects - The hydropower segment is experiencing steady growth, with a 2.72% year-on-year increase in electricity sales to 1,066.87 billion kWh in 2024, and an increase in on-grid electricity price by 1.11 yuan per MWh [3] - The company is actively developing hydropower and wind-storage projects in the upper reaches of the Lancang River, ensuring long-term growth potential [3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a significant increase in electricity generation, achieving 212.92 billion kWh, a 31.22% year-on-year increase [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain steady growth with projected revenues of 26.498 billion yuan, 27.272 billion yuan, and 28.227 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 8.896 billion yuan, 9.273 billion yuan, and 9.823 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.49 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.55 yuan [4] - The stock has received a "buy" rating from multiple institutions, with 14 out of 18 institutions recommending a buy in the last 90 days [5]