Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown strong performance, currently trading above $3,300, with a weekly increase of 3%, potentially marking the best weekly performance since early April [1] Short-term Situation - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $3,260.00 and $3,380.00, with key support levels at the ascending trend line of $3,260.00 and the Bollinger middle band at $3,301.24 [3] - If prices can maintain above these support levels, there is potential to test resistance at $3,380.00 and possibly reach the previous high of $3,420.00 [3] Medium to Long-term Situation - Fundamentally, gold is supported by favorable investment conditions, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation likely to drive prices higher in the coming months [4] - Technically, as long as prices remain above the long-term average of $3,120.64, the upward trend is expected to continue [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85% due to declining inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation has significantly decreased since peaking in 2022, as higher interest rates have aimed to balance total demand and supply [1] - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with increased volatility in financial markets over the past three months [1] - Recent statements regarding tariffs have led to a rebound in financial market prices, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding the final scope of tariffs and responses from other countries [1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties are evident, which are expected to negatively impact global economic activity [1] - There is a risk that households and businesses may delay spending while awaiting clearer economic prospects, contributing to a weak outlook for Australia's economic growth, employment, and inflation [1]

澳洲联储：地缘政治不确定性依然突出。 ...

澳洲联储：预计失业率截至2025年6月为4.2%，2026年6月和2027年6月均为4.3%。地缘政治不确定性依 然突出，在 "贸易战" 情景下，失业率或将攀升至近 6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) highlights ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, indicating that under a "trade war" scenario, the unemployment rate may rise to nearly 6% [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a significant concern for the Australian economy [1] - The RBA suggests that a potential "trade war" could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [1] - The projected unemployment rate under adverse conditions is close to 6% [1]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current price of gold T+D has surged to 752 RMB per gram, with an increase of 0.56%, while international gold futures in New York have reached 3228.5 USD per ounce, up by 1.30% [2] - Compared to last year, gold prices have risen significantly from around 480 RMB per gram to 645 RMB per gram, marking a remarkable increase of 25% [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices reflect international geopolitical tensions, with increased conflicts and upcoming elections in Europe and the US heightening market risk aversion, leading to a surge in demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - The relationship between the US dollar and gold is highlighted, where a strong dollar typically weakens gold prices, while a weaker dollar creates favorable conditions for gold price increases [3] Group 3: Young Consumers in the Gold Market - Young consumers aged 25 to 34 account for 55% of gold jewelry purchases, with those under 25 seeing a nearly ninefold increase in transaction volume [4] - Popular shopping destinations for young buyers include Beijing and Shenzhen, where social media has popularized gold buying as a trendy experience [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies in Gold - For conservative investors, bank gold bar products, such as ICBC's gold bars priced at 493 RMB per gram for 20 grams, are considered stable investment options [5] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to unique gold products, including collaborations with popular IPs, which, despite limited investment value, thrive in the emotional consumption market [5]

Short-term Downward Factors - International gold prices are under adjustment pressure, with potential for further declines in the short term [2] - Gold prices have broken below the key support level of $3200, with short-term support shifting to the $3150 - $3160 range [3] - If gold prices effectively drop below $3150, it may trigger programmatic selling, potentially reaching the psychological level of $3100 [3] Short-term Support or Rebound Factors - Despite the current bearish market sentiment, there is a possibility of short-term price recovery due to the Stochastic Oscillator being in the oversold region, indicating potential for a rebound [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing economic tensions between the US and China, may trigger safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices [3] - Central banks globally have shown a trend of net gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025, providing solid support for gold prices [3] Medium to Long-term Trend Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 for gold by the end of 2025, with an extreme scenario suggesting a rise to $4500 [2] - Morgan Stanley warns that if the US economy does not "land," gold prices could plummet to $2700 [2] - Citic Securities forecasts that COMEX gold will range between $3000 and $3250 for the entire year [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to stable demand driven by central bank purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a daily low of $3274.75 per ounce, closing up 0.63% at $3327.03 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures also rising 0.60% to $3326 per ounce, indicating a technical correction [1] - The market is experiencing mixed signals, with significant progress reported in the UK-US bilateral trade agreement, where the UK agreed to concessions on US agricultural imports in exchange for potential tariff reductions on UK car exports, which may temporarily weaken safe-haven demand [3] - Despite the trade agreement, global investors remain concerned about geopolitical uncertainties and recession risks, leading to continued inflows into safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The precious metals sector showed a mixed performance, with spot silver rising 0.10% to $32.486 per ounce, platinum increasing 0.08% to $982.48 per ounce, and palladium leading the sector with a 0.54% gain, closing at $978.30 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that the precious metals market may continue to experience range-bound fluctuations amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, with investors advised to closely monitor upcoming Federal Reserve speeches and next week's US CPI data for insights on future price movements [4]

咨询公司：特朗普关税冲击市场，华尔街奖金最多可下降20% 金十数据5月8日讯，薪酬咨询公司Johnson Associates的一份报告称，由于经济和地缘政治的不确定性阻 碍了交易，预计今年华尔街的奖金将出现下滑。由于企业推迟IPO和并购，投资银行业务今年已趋于枯 竭。在特朗普上个月宣布的关税令市场动荡之后，企业一直不愿采取行动。这家咨询公司预计，今年的 奖金最多将减少10%。"银行家们担心并害怕出现瘫痪，即客户活动冻结，公司不投资、不买卖，公司 无法产生它们赖以生存的费用。这是目前最大的担忧，"Johnson Associates创始人艾伦•约翰逊表 示。"不确定性持续的时间越长，影响就越大。"他说，在最坏的情况下，如果经济活动放缓，导致交易 停止，银行家的奖金可能最多减少20%。若关税问题更加明朗，以及地缘政治紧张局势的缓和，可能会 使奖金持平或略有增加。 ...