地缘政治的不确定性仍在持续发酵。拉美、中东以及俄乌局势的相关进展使避险资产在回调过程中展现 出一定韧性。此外，美国政府的强硬外交政策立场，也促使市场对潜在的地缘冲突保持警觉。尽管这些 因素尚未在短期内显著推升金价，但仍被视为黄金中期的重要支撑。 美国经济数据近期呈现出一定分化。ADP私营部门就业增长温和，JOLTS职位空缺回落至一年多来的低 位，这显示劳动力需求持续降温。然而，ISM服务业数据的回升使得经济信号出现分化。正因如此，周 五的非农就业报告被视为重新调整市场预期的关键事件，其结果将直接影响利率预期、美元走势以及贵 金属定价。 UNFX 1月8日讯（分析师 Simon）在关键宏观事件逐步浮现之际，全球市场的风险情绪依旧保持谨慎。 周四欧洲交易时段，黄金连续第二日回落，受到短期获利了结及观望情绪的影响，价格下探至三日低 位。与此同时，美国最高法院即将就特朗普关税案作出裁决，为后半周的市场定价增添了新的政策不确 定性。 周四交易时段，黄金（XAU/USD）一度回落至4415美元附近，延续此前的回调走势。市场普遍认为， 此次调整反映的是非农就业报告发布前的仓位调整，而并非基本面发生根本性变化。在缺乏有力催化 ...

装置检修动态: 西北一套120万吨PTA装置重启,该装置上周初停车。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2026- 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-09 2025-07 2025-11 05 01 09 05 09 01 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 ·DTY现金流 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2026- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

12月15日，黄金消息面解析：周一（12月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡上涨，目前交投于 4319.17美元/盎司附近。尽管美联储暗示在更多数据出炉前对进一步降息持谨慎态度，但投资者仍预计 明年将有两次降息机会，这为黄金提供了强劲的支撑。作为传统的避险资产，黄金在全球不确定性加剧 的背景下，继续吸引资金流入。上周五（12月12日）金价表现出色，现货黄金上涨0.48%，收报每盎司 4300美元附近，盘中最高触及4353美元/盎司，这是自10月21日以来的最高水平。美国期金也收涨 0.4%，结算价达到4328.3美元。这种上涨势头让黄金多头信心满满，尤其是在美联储上周第三次降息25 个基点后，市场对宽松货币政策的预期进一步升温。 黄金技术面分析：黄金周初大概率维持区间震荡整理，本周数据面迎来密集爆发，周二美国非农数据、 周四CPI数据及周五日本央行利率决议陆续登场，其中日本央行是否开启加息周期成为市场核心聚焦 点。多重重磅数据共振影响下，黄金行情波动预计显著加剧，消息面或触发单边行情，操作需严控风 险、灵活应对。回顾前期走势，金价曾于4380关口两次承压回落，形成经典"双顶"看空形态，随后价格 下探至3900 ...

贵金属日报 2025-12-05 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.09 %，报 958.46 元/克，沪银跌 1.91 %，报 13366.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4237.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 57.53 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.11%，美元指数报 99.07 ； 美国经济数据分化，宽松货币政策预期对于贵金属价格的驱动已出现明显的边际弱化，贵金属 需要注意短期剧烈的价格回调风险。 美联储 12 月份议息会议前的最后一份就业报告表现偏弱，美国 11 月 ADP 就业人口数下降 3.2 万人，低于预期的新增 1 万人和前值的新增 4.7 万人。数据理论上应增大市场对于联储后续宽 货币的预期，驱动金银价格走强。但在偏弱的 ADP 就业数据公布后盘面反应较小。随后公布的 美国 11 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 为 52.6，高于预期的 52.1 和前值的 52.4，具备一定韧性。而在 昨夜公布的当周初请失业 ...

美联储12月份议息会议前的最后一份就业报告表现偏弱，美国11月ADP就业人口数下降3.2万人，低于 预期的新增1万人和前值的新增4.7万人。数据理论上应增大市场对于联储后续宽货币的预期，驱动白银 价格走强。但在偏弱的ADP就业数据公布后盘面反应较小。随后晚间公布的美国11月ISM非制造业PMI 为52.6，高于预期的52.1和前值的52.4，具备一定韧性。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银和纽约银期现结构反转，适逢纽约和沪银交割期，供应短缺博弈火热，银价继续大幅走高。沪银溢 价收敛至340元/克，国内情绪强劲。美联储降息预期回归和俄乌和谈乐观预期共同影响，美联储会议 前，降息预期仍支撑银价。 面对就业数据的利多因素，白银价格未延续强势表现，当前转入观望状态，沪银主力合约参考运行区间 12639-14200元/千克。 周四(12月4日)午后盘，白银期货短线惊现跳水行情，沪银主力合约日内走低2.00%，现报13344.00元/千 克，截至发稿沪银主力最高触及13826.00元/千克，最低下探至13322.00元/千克，目前来看，白银期货 盘内短线偏向回调走势。 【要闻速递】 昨日所公布的美国经济数据分化，宽松货币政 ...

宽松预期持续巩固 贵金属价格高位震荡 贵金属日报 | 2025-09-10 2025-09-09，美国10年期国债利率收于4.088%，较前一交易日-0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.525%，较前一交易 日变化-0.4BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-09-09，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化314手，空头则是变化257手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为470523 手，较前一交易日变化6.97%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合约上，多头变动2手，空头变动-2手。白银合约上个交易 日总成交量1067357手，较前一交易日变化-24.09%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 市场分析 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为979.68吨，较前一交易日下降-2.29吨。白银ETF持仓为15069.6吨，较前一交 易日-67.78吨。 关税方面，美国和韩国就一项3500亿美元投资基金的细节问题陷入僵局，该基金是两国更广泛贸易协议的一部分。 韩方一直向美方强调，不能接受与日本5500亿美元投资承诺相同的条款；日本经济再生担当相赤泽亮正表示，美 国特朗普政府对日下调汽车关税以及减轻"对等关税"负担的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Compared with the current inflation and employment data, the setback of the Fed's independence is the main line of subsequent precious metal market trading. The expectation of loose monetary policy will drive the prices of gold and silver to strengthen further, and silver will benefit more from this expectation. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 779.28 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.02% to 9162.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.15% to 3354.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.02% to 38.13 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.46%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.32 [2]. - In terms of specific varieties, Au(T + D) fell 0.51% to 772.20 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.82% to 9109.00 yuan/kilogram; London Gold fell 0.64% to 3323.80 US dollars/ounce, London Silver fell 1.01% to 37.88 US dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.33% to 950.79 tons, SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.25% to 14819.29 tons [4]. Market Outlook - Last night, Fed Chairman Powell faced a "removal storm", and the independence of the Fed's monetary policy was once again severely impacted, which strongly supported the prices of gold and silver. Although Trump later said he had no plan to fire the Fed chairman, the issue of the Fed's independence still affects market expectations [2]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.71% to 3354.20 US dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 31.12% to 23.25 million lots, and open interest rose 1.25% to 44.31 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.48% to 776.66 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 14.60% to 33.05 million lots, and open interest fell 0.16% to 40.41 million lots [7]. - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 0.37% to 38.13 US dollars/ounce, open interest fell 0.47% to 16.28 million lots, and inventory rose 0.11% to 15464 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.79% to 9152.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 0.78% to 99.85 million lots, and open interest fell 3.52% to 96.73 million lots [7]. Price Structure and Spread - The report provides multiple price structure charts such as the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold spread, and the near - far month structure of Shanghai Gold, as well as internal and external spread statistics of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX spread and SGE - LBMA spread [21][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The erosion of the Fed's independence is the main theme for future trading in the precious metals market. Expectations of a loose monetary policy will drive the prices of gold and silver higher, and silver will benefit more from this expectation. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 2.38% to 9232.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.58% to 3383.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.41% to 39.12 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 97.97 [2]. - For other assets, the US 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.08 percentage points to 4.43%, the TIPS rose 0.05 percentage points to 2.06%, the US dollar index rose 0.28 to 97.8731, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fell 0.04 to 7.2545. Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, while the VIX index rose 0.62 to 16.40 [4]. Market Outlook - The divergence in the views of Fed voting members reflects not only their hawkish or dovish tendencies but also the significant interference of the Trump administration in the Fed's independence. Figures like Bowman and Waller, who support a July rate cut, are more influenced by Trump's stance on monetary policy than the current US inflation and economic situation. Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell and called for an immediate rate cut and even his resignation [2]. Gold and Silver Data Details - **Gold**: In COMEX, the closing price of the active contract rose 1.12% to 3370.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume rose 39.51% to 20.70 million lots, the open interest rose 1.25% to 44.31 million lots, and the inventory fell 0.09% to 1143 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract rose 0.03% to 773.56 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 9.26% to 29.02 million lots, the open interest fell 1.03% to 39.16 million lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 24.59 tons. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold decreased by 0.99% to 484.62 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver**: In COMEX, the closing price of the active contract rose 3.85% to 39.08 dollars/ounce, the open interest fell 0.47% to 16.28 million lots, and the inventory fell 0.12% to 15394 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract rose 1.36% to 9040.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 141.85% to 168.64 million lots, the open interest rose 9.41% to 95.70 million lots, and the inventory rose 0.50% to 1303.59 tons. The precipitation funds in SHFE silver increased by 10.90% to 233.59 billion yuan [6].