Gold (GC=F) futures jumped above $5,500 per ounce on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, while a weaker dollar fueled the debasement trade, pushing investors toward hard assets. The greenback (DX-Y.NYB) stabilized on Wednesday after sliding to its lowest level since early 2022, as President Trump shrugged off concerns about a weakening currency. "No, I think it’s great,” Trump said in Iowa on Tuesday when asked if he's worried about a declining dollar. Gold prices have rallied ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, driven by factors such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][5][7]. Price Movements - As of January 12, gold spot and futures prices surpassed $4600 per ounce, with spot gold at $4584.725 (up 1.68%) and COMEX futures at $4597.6 (up 2.15%) [1][2]. - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver reaching $84.059 (up 5.38%) and COMEX silver at $83.91 (up 5.76%) [1][2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a record high of 1031.3 yuan per gram, closing at 1026.28 yuan (up 2.57%), while silver futures reached 20998 yuan per kilogram (up 14.42%) [1]. Market Dynamics - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has increased demand for safe-haven assets [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny due to ongoing investigations, which may impact market expectations regarding monetary policy [5][7]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the latest data showing that domestic gold reserves reached approximately 2306.323 tons, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [5]. - Analysts suggest that if central banks increase their gold reserves by just 1%, it could push gold prices up by about $1000 [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals, with expectations that the current upward trend will continue, particularly in light of the political uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target for Q4 2026 to $4800, indicating strong confidence in gold's long-term value [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge on January 12, with both gold and silver prices reaching historical highs due to multiple influencing factors, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][6]. Price Movements - On January 12, London spot gold prices peaked at $4601.38 per ounce, marking the first time it surpassed the $4600 per ounce threshold, with a daily increase exceeding 2% [3]. - COMEX gold futures also reached a record high of $4612.7 per ounce, closing at $4601.9 per ounce [3]. - London spot silver prices hit $84.606 per ounce, breaking the $84 per ounce mark with a daily increase of over 6% [5]. - COMEX silver futures peaked at $84.69 per ounce, also showing a daily rise of over 6% [5]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures reached a high of 1031.3 yuan per gram, closing at 1026.28 yuan per gram, up 2.57% [5]. - Shanghai silver futures saw a remarkable increase, peaking at 20998 yuan per kilogram, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with a daily surge of 14.42% [5]. Driving Factors - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to three main factors: concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran [6][7]. - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has heightened market volatility and is seen as a warning signal regarding the future policy stance of the Fed [6][8]. - Expectations of loose monetary policy are expected to lower U.S. Treasury yields and market interest rates, thereby increasing investment demand for gold [7]. Market Outlook - While the long-term potential for gold prices remains, short-term volatility is anticipated, with analysts suggesting that the investigation into Powell may accelerate existing upward trends rather than create a temporary spike [8]. - Factors supporting long-term gold price increases include continued central bank purchases, the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed, and the erosion of dollar credit due to U.S. fiscal debt issues [9]. - Silver prices are expected to maintain upward momentum due to strong industrial demand, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, despite potential supply constraints [9]. Short-term Risks - Analysts caution that short-term price volatility may increase, with risks including uncertainty around the timing and pace of Fed rate cuts, crowded long positions in the gold market, and potential tightening of global liquidity [9][10]. - Specific risks for silver include tight short-term liquidity and potential underperformance in industrial demand [10].

Core Viewpoint - Global market risk sentiment remains cautious amid key macro events, with gold prices experiencing a pullback due to profit-taking and a lack of strong catalysts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices fell to around $4,415, reflecting a position adjustment ahead of the non-farm payroll report rather than a fundamental change [1]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in Latin America, the Middle East, and the Russia-Ukraine situation, provide some support for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which has kept the dollar from forming a sustained rebound, thereby alleviating some downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data shows divergence, with ADP private sector employment growth being moderate and JOLTS job openings falling to a one-year low, indicating a cooling labor demand [2]. - The ISM services data showed a rebound, contributing to mixed economic signals, making the upcoming non-farm payroll report a critical event for adjusting market expectations [2][3]. - The upcoming ruling on the Trump tariff case is expected to impose some limitations on presidential tariff powers but is not anticipated to fundamentally alter the existing trade framework [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is at a convergence of key events, with the non-farm payroll data expected to provide important insights into the Federal Reserve's policy path [3]. - The tariff ruling will introduce new uncertainties into the policy environment, potentially heightening market caution [2][3]. - In the short term, gold may experience a mix of high-level fluctuations and technical corrections, with changes in the dollar and interest rate expectations being core factors influencing precious metal prices [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The PTA market shows a slight increase due to the expectation of loose monetary policy despite the decline in crude oil prices. The PTA inventory is slightly reduced, and the spot basis strengthens. The PTA processing fee has increased. The PX market has experienced a sharp rise mainly driven by speculative funds, and its fundamentals are supported. The MEG market has a weakening basis, and the supply pressure is increasing due to new device production [2]. - The polyester load remains high due to the new polyester device production, and the PTA consumption is also high. The polyester demand is affected by the domestic season, but the reduction in production by polyester factories is not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price decreased from 428.2 yuan/barrel on January 7, 2026, to 416.3 yuan/barrel on January 8, 2026 [2]. - PTA主力期价 remained at 5150 yuan/ton, and the PTA现货 price increased by 20 yuan/ton. The PTA现货加工费 rose to 331.1 yuan/ton, and the 盘面加工费 was 381.1 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The spot price in Zhangjiagang's ethylene glycol market increased, and the futures price showed a strong - side shock. The basis negotiation continued to weaken [2]. Price Differences and Ratios - The PX - naphtha price difference was 366 dollars, and the PX - mixed xylene price difference reached 155 dollars [2]. - The PTA/SC ratio was 1.6550, and the PTA - SC was 86.48 yuan/ton [2]. Operating Rates - The PX operating rate was 87.87%, the PTA operating rate was 77.40%, the MEG operating rate was 60.87%, and the polyester load was 88.04% [2]. Cash Flows and Sales Ratios - POY150D/48F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, and its cash flow increased by 1.0. FDY150D/96F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price increased by 15 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY changed accordingly [2]. - The sales ratios of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chip varied, with the polyester staple fiber sales ratio increasing by 49% and the polyester chip sales ratio decreasing by 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted after parking at the beginning of last week [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is approximately $4319.17 per ounce, showing a slight upward trend [1][6] - Investors anticipate two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, providing strong support for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [1][6] - Last Friday, gold prices rose by 0.48%, closing around $4300 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4353 per ounce, marking the highest level since October 21 [1][6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation at the beginning of the week, with significant data releases scheduled, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI data [2][6] - Previous price action showed gold facing resistance at the $4380 level, forming a "double top" bearish pattern before stabilizing around $3900 [2][6] - The daily chart indicates a clear bullish trend, with gold successfully breaking above the previous consolidation range and maintaining above the $4200 level [3][7] Group 3: Short-term Trading Strategy for Gold - The short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with key resistance levels identified at $4350-$4370 and support levels at $4295-$4275 [3][7] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - The current price of WTI crude oil is around $57.53 per barrel, with a weekly decline exceeding 4% due to concerns over global supply surplus and geopolitical tensions [4][8] - Brent crude futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, while WTI crude futures closed at $57.44 per barrel, both showing a decrease of $0.16 [4][8] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart for oil indicates a secondary consolidation phase, with prices testing the previous low around $56 [5][9] - The short-term trend is characterized by a range-bound movement between $56.80 and $58.10, with MACD indicators showing a lack of strong bearish momentum [5][9] - The recommended trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $59.0-$60.0 and support levels at $56.5-$55.5 [5][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The driving force of the loose monetary policy expectation on precious metal prices has shown an obvious marginal weakening, and attention should be paid to the risk of short - term sharp price corrections in precious metals [1]. - After the release of the weak ADP employment data, the market reaction was small. The subsequent release of the US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, and the initial job - less claims data for the week announced last night was better than expected, causing the silver price to weaken [2]. - Given that gold and silver prices did not continue their strong performance in the face of the positive factors of this week's ADP employment data, and Hassett's "appointment hint" has exhausted the short - term driving factors of loose monetary policy, it is recommended to gradually liquidate existing long positions in gold and silver and enter a wait - and - see state [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.09% to 958.46 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.91% to 13366.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4237.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 57.53 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.11%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.07 [1]. Economic Data - The last employment report before the Federal Reserve's December interest - rate meeting was weak. The number of ADP employed people in the US in November decreased by 32,000, lower than the expected increase of 10,000 and the previous value of an increase of 47,000. The US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6, higher than the expected 52.1 and the previous value of 52.4. The number of initial job - less claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 191,000, significantly lower than the expected 220,000 and the previous value of 218,000 [2]. Strategy Suggestions - It is recommended to gradually liquidate existing long positions in gold and silver and enter a wait - and - see state. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 935 - 968 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract is 12639 - 14000 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Summary - For gold on December 4, 2025, the COMEX closing price (active contract) was 4237.90 US dollars/ounce (up 0.07% from the previous day), the trading volume was 155,200 lots (down 8.51% from the previous day), etc. For silver on the same day, the COMEX closing price (active contract) was 57.53 US dollars/ounce (down 2.38% from the previous day), the trading volume was 3,302,500 lots (down 10.43% from the previous day), etc. [5]

Group 1 - Silver futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping by 2.00% to 13,344.00 yuan per kilogram, after reaching a high of 13,826.00 yuan and a low of 13,322.00 yuan during the day [1] - The recent U.S. economic data showed mixed results, indicating a weakening marginal impact of loose monetary policy expectations on precious metal prices, which raises concerns about short-term price correction risks [2] - The U.S. ADP employment report for November showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, falling short of the expected increase of 10,000 and the previous increase of 47,000, which theoretically should increase market expectations for continued loose monetary policy [2] Group 2 - The silver futures market is currently experiencing a structural reversal between Shanghai and New York, with a strong domestic sentiment and a narrowing premium of 340 yuan per kilogram for Shanghai silver [2] - The expectations of a Fed rate cut and optimistic prospects for Russia-Ukraine negotiations are influencing silver prices, with the main contract expected to trade within the range of 12,639 to 14,200 yuan per kilogram [2] - Despite the positive factors from employment data, silver prices have not maintained a strong performance and have entered a wait-and-see state [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Loose policy expectations continue to consolidate, and precious metal prices fluctuate at high levels. The potential significant downward revision of US employment data may expose stagflation risks, pushing up the safe-haven premium of gold. Silver also benefits from loose expectations and its industrial attributes, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and South Korea are deadlocked over the details of a $350 billion investment fund. South Korea cannot accept the same terms as Japan's $550 billion investment commitment. The US is expected to implement special measures to lower auto tariffs and reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan by the 16th. The potential significant downward revision of US employment data in the 12 months up to March this year continues to consolidate expectations of loose monetary policy [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 827.50 yuan/gram and closed at 834.48 yuan/gram, a change of 1.41% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 832.60 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,867.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,846.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 526,614 lots, and the open interest was 223,011 lots. The night session closed at 9,760 yuan/kilogram, down 0.87% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.525%, down 0.4 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 9, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 314 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 257 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 470,523 lots, a change of 6.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,067,357 lots, a change of -24.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 979.68 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,069.6 tons, down 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On September 9, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -20.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -931.33 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 84.75, a change of 1.07% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 87.65, a change of 0.80% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 62,614 kilograms, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 384,540 kilograms, a change of -36.44% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 22,024 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 480 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Compared with the current inflation and employment data, the setback of the Fed's independence is the main line of subsequent precious metal market trading. The expectation of loose monetary policy will drive the prices of gold and silver to strengthen further, and silver will benefit more from this expectation. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 779.28 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.02% to 9162.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.15% to 3354.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.02% to 38.13 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.46%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.32 [2]. - In terms of specific varieties, Au(T + D) fell 0.51% to 772.20 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.82% to 9109.00 yuan/kilogram; London Gold fell 0.64% to 3323.80 US dollars/ounce, London Silver fell 1.01% to 37.88 US dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.33% to 950.79 tons, SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.25% to 14819.29 tons [4]. Market Outlook - Last night, Fed Chairman Powell faced a "removal storm", and the independence of the Fed's monetary policy was once again severely impacted, which strongly supported the prices of gold and silver. Although Trump later said he had no plan to fire the Fed chairman, the issue of the Fed's independence still affects market expectations [2]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.71% to 3354.20 US dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 31.12% to 23.25 million lots, and open interest rose 1.25% to 44.31 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.48% to 776.66 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 14.60% to 33.05 million lots, and open interest fell 0.16% to 40.41 million lots [7]. - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 0.37% to 38.13 US dollars/ounce, open interest fell 0.47% to 16.28 million lots, and inventory rose 0.11% to 15464 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.79% to 9152.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 0.78% to 99.85 million lots, and open interest fell 3.52% to 96.73 million lots [7]. Price Structure and Spread - The report provides multiple price structure charts such as the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold spread, and the near - far month structure of Shanghai Gold, as well as internal and external spread statistics of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX spread and SGE - LBMA spread [21][51].