Morning session notice 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 7 | 元至 | 1737 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | | | | | | 涨 | 20 | 至 | 1800 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 1517 | 手至 | 17.34 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2269 | 手至 | 19.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开工 | 85.79%，较去年同期 | 78.27%提升 | 7.52% ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250703: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 7月2日 | 7月1日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) 0.95% | | | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1698.00 1710.00 | 1682.00 1694.00 | 16.00 16.00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.94% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1739.00 | 1721.00 | 18.00 | 1.05% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1630.00 | 0.00 30.00 | 0.00% 1.84% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1780.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小額粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-03 农需旺季启动，尿素小幅反弹 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-02，尿素主力收盘1739元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：51 元/吨（-18）；河南基差：41元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：61元/吨（-18）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（+0），出口利润901 元/吨（+10）。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-07-02，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-02，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 农需旺季即将来临，北方农需旺季启动，下游采购量 ...

Market Overview and Quotes Review - On June 30, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 1,712 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1,727 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,000 lots, and the open interest was 224,000 lots [2]. - The latest price of the urea 2508 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.98%, with an open interest of 850 lots, an increase of 29 lots, and a trading volume of 224 lots. The latest price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,712 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.64%, with an open interest of 223,700 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots, and a trading volume of 218,328 lots [5]. - The overall price of urea in major regions remained stable. The representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,830 yuan/ton, Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,700 yuan/ton, Ruixing Group in East China at 1,770 yuan/ton, and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,780 yuan/ton [5]. Analysis of Influencing Factors - Overseas: India's RCF issued a urea import tender plan with a procurement target of 2 million tons, with 1 million tons allocated to each of the east and west coasts. The tender will open on July 7, be valid until July 17, and the final shipping deadline is set for August 22 [8]. - Policy: To promote the export self - discipline of circulation enterprises, the industry association coordinated to add a port legal inspection link, which is implemented by three state - owned enterprises: China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Sinochem Fertilizer, and China National Chemical Construction. It supplements the origin legal inspection system [10]. - Demand: The end of the Israel - Palestine conflict led to the消退 of its market impact, and the international urea price significantly回调. However, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and India's new tender, it supported the domestic market sentiment. Domestically, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots market was resistant to high - priced goods. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises declined from the high level, and their raw material procurement willingness was weak [10]. - Supply: The operating rate and daily output of the urea industry reached peak values in recent years, and the inventory showed small fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine in industrial demand continued to decline, and the agricultural demand expectation weakened again. The oversupply pattern in the urea market was still significant [10]. Conclusion and Outlook - India's large - scale tender will boost the market sentiment in the short term, and domestic policies guide self - disciplined exports. With the decline of international urea prices, weak domestic industrial and agricultural demand, and continuous high supply, the oversupply pattern in the urea market is significant. The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent, and export profit is the key variable. It is expected that the domestic urea price will face upward pressure in the short term and may continue to operate weakly [8].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250701: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | | 单位 | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) -0.12% | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 | 1682.00 | 1684.00 | -2.00 | | | | | | 元/吨 | 1696.00 | 1696.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1712.00 | 1717.00 | -5.00 | -0.29% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1800.00 1660.00 | 1810.00 1660.00 | -10.00 0.00 | -0.55% 0.00% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1800.00 | -20.00 | -1.11% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 18 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-01 需求支撑不足，尿素偏弱震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-30，尿素主力收盘1712元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：88 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：68元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：98元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（-10），出口利润885元 /吨（+225）。 供应端：截至2025-06-30，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.59 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-06-30，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.11）。 尿素装置临时停车增加，上游开工率走低，产量有所下降。下游需求不及预期，复合肥进入季节性淡季，开工率 仍在持续走低，预计7月中旬开始提升，三聚氰胺开工低位运行，其他工业需求亦偏弱。农 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：钢联 大越期货整理 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，国际尿素价格偏强，影响 部分传导至国内市场。供应方面，开工率及日产均为近年新高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工业需 求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。尿素整体供过于求仍 明显，出口政策未放开。交割品现货1880（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差168，升贴水比例8.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存112万吨（+14），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Agricultural demand for urea is steadily rising as downstream agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation continue, but industrial demand is weakening with declining capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and low - level operation of melamine [2] - Urea production is at a high level with few planned device overhauls, so supply pressure is large. However, due to the release of agricultural demand, factory pre - sales orders are increasing and enterprise inventories are decreasing [2] - In terms of exports, there is still port - collection demand, but the new export quota is unclear, and the export benefits are gradually weakening. Port inventories have increased significantly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report may use figures such as the Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, and Henan main - continuous basis to analyze the urea basis structure, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report likely uses figures on urea weekly production and urea device overhaul loss volume to analyze urea production, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report may analyze urea production profit and operating rate through figures including production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][21][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The report may analyze urea offshore price and export profit using figures such as the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][25][30] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report may analyze urea downstream operation and orders through figures including compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pre - order days of urea enterprises, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report may analyze urea inventory and warehouse receipts using figures such as upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][47][50]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - The core view is that the recent rumors of relaxed urea exports and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of current export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. So, the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad, and one can wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1] Group 3 Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 was 1682 yuan/ton on June 26, down 15 yuan or 0.88% from June 25 [1] - UR05 was 1691 yuan/ton on June 26, down 14 yuan or 0.82% from June 25 [1] - UR09 was 1724 yuan/ton on June 26, down 16 yuan or 0.92% from June 25 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - The price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 40 yuan or 2.27% from June 25 [1] - The price in Henan was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] - The price in Hebei was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 10 yuan or 0.56% from June 25 [1] - The price in Northeast was 1890 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price in Jiangsu was 1810 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 109 yuan/ton on June 26, up 54 yuan from June 25 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 9 yuan/ton on June 26, down 1 yuan from June 25 [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite price in Henan was 1080 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 820 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2520 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Shandong was 5083 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1741 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1698 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1724 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1720 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 233314 lots [1] Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR fluctuated in a range and closed at 1724. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...