Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. It suggests that the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of old equipment renovation, with about 20% of urea equipment over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate above 80%, leaving little idle capacity; on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Urea Price and Cost Data - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1737 yuan/ton with no change; UR05 was at 1779 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.11%); UR09 was at 1707 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.23%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 79 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5225 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1740 yuan/ton, the highest was 1763 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1733 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1737 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 223,981 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, especially focusing on the 01 contract, based on the low valuation of urea and the expected upward drivers in the second half of the year [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of exports on sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and trading has improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although production may decline slightly next week due to planned maintenance, future supply - demand remains loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and cost support is average. The export of urea continues in August, and port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market, and export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1737 yuan/ton (- 8). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (- 10). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+ 8), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Planned maintenance at companies like Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an next week may lead to a slight decline in production, but new capacity will be released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and cost support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1288 yuan/ton (+ 18). The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of August 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84% (- 2.64%), and that of melamine was 46.60% (- 3.22%). The number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (- 0.23). Industrial demand is weak [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+ 6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+ 3.70). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export expectations, has fallen as actual export demand has not improved significantly. The market is expected to remain volatile today, influenced by factors such as high domestic production and inventory, weak domestic demand, and strong international prices, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward recently. The previous rise in futures prices due to rumors of improved China - India relations and increased export expectations did not materialize in actual export demand, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. Although export profits have declined, they remain strong, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons (-2.0), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. With the domestic supply still significantly exceeding demand, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Operating rates and daily production are at high levels, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand are the main influencing factors [5]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 1737 (-8), the price of the 05 contract is 1777 (-12), and the price of the 09 contract is 1703 (-11). The basis of the UR01 contract is 73 (up 8) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 89.6 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.1 million tons, all unchanged [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown varying degrees of change. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

【冠通研究】 弱势整理 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内震荡承压。期现市场均呈现弱势状态，上游工厂降价 吸单后，市场成交氛围未见明显好转，山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂价格范围在 1640-1690 元/吨。基本面来看暂无过分波动，日产维持 19 万 吨左右，本周河南心连心及山西潞安有检修计划，预计本周产量环比上周减 少。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升 高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影响，复合肥工厂出现限产减产情况，开工 负荷略有下调。成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平，目前暂未到秋季肥 高需求阶段，无集中备肥压力；其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停 车。尿素库存表现为累库，且目前位于近五年高位，大量库存压制行情上涨空 间，市场可流通货源多。整体来说，目前尿素处于弱势整理阶段，目前市场暂 无驱动，前期出口利多已消化，后续印标价格需关注是否超市场预期，短期反 弹沽空，后续秋季备肥及淡储支撑市场，且东北备肥也或将逐渐开始，下方有 支撑，空间相对有限。 【期现行情】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格， ...

尿素日报 | 2025-08-26 厂家降价吸单，下游采购谨慎 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-25，尿素主力收盘1745元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-45 元/吨（-46）；河南基差：-35元/吨（-46）；江苏基差：-35元/吨（-36）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（-40），出口利润1270 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-08-25，企业产能利用率83.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.39 万吨（+6.65），港口样本 库存量为50.10 万吨（+3.70）。 需求端：截至2025-08-25，复合肥产能利用率40.84%（-2.64%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为46.60%（-3.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.06日（-0.23）。 近日受出口影响情绪减弱，厂家降价吸单，下游跟进谨慎，现货跌至前低成交有好转。下游农需淡季，工业需求 复合肥进入秋季肥生产季节，但受阅兵影响，开工率下降，三聚氰胺、板厂开工也 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1810 | 1 0 | 01合约 | 1745 | 6 | 仓 单 | 5123 | 1050 | | 山东现货 | 1810 | 1 0 | 基 差 | 6 5 | 4 | UR综 ...

机构 核心观点 国投安信期货 尿素短期行情受市场情绪及出口影响较大 8月25日盘中，尿素期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至1735.00元。截止收盘，尿素主力合约报1745.00 元，跌幅0.17%。 尿素期货主力小幅下跌0.17%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 五矿期货：预计尿素价格下方空间已较为有限 日产高位，企业利润低位供应压力仍存。需求端复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工降至同比低位，农业需 求进入淡季，国内需求整体缺乏支撑，出口持续推进，港口库存再度走高，当前需求变量主要在出口。 整体来看国内尿素面临低估值弱供需格局，在缺乏实质性利好出现之前价格仍将维持区间运行。鉴于煤 炭价格已逐步见底回升且尿素生产利润低位，预计价格下方空间已较为有限，建议逢低关注多单为主。 中原期货：尿素盘面或震荡偏弱运行 近期装置检修与复产并存，尿素行业日产维持19-20万吨附近波动。库存方面，上游尿素企业库存延续 累积状态，港口货源已环比增加至50.1万吨。需求端，受环保以及成品库存压力影响，复合肥企业开工 环比小幅下滑，成品库存延续增加趋势。但随着备肥时间的逐步缩短，预计月底前后下游提货存边际改 善预期。短期来看，出口情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the urea industry is bearish [1] Report's Core View - The urea futures market showed a downward trend on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. The fundamentals had no significant fluctuations, and short - term bearish sentiment prevailed due to insufficient domestic demand and high inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The daily output remained around 190,000 tons, with a narrow - range fluctuation. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the inventory of urea factories was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The participation in the Indian tender was unclear, and the market sentiment was cautious. The short - term outlook was bearish [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1767 yuan/ton, closed at 1739 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92%. The trading volume was 209,301 lots, an increase of 3584 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4237 lots, and short positions increased by 4251 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market declined continuously, and the trading atmosphere was cold. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1720 - 1740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4073, an increase of 500 compared to the previous trading day, with 500 additional receipts from Jilin Yuyuan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.81% [11]

一德期货：短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 中金财富期货 内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 一德期货 短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 创元期货 尿素操作区间1650-1850 中金财富期货：内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 目前来看，持续攀升的印标价格反映出海外尿素货源紧缺，理论测算出口利润丰厚，然而这一利好在短 期内难以兑现。参考历史经验，2023年三季度尿素供需紧张引发结构性行情，到年末国内尿素价格暴涨 至高位，致使承储企业亏损严重，全面放开印标有违稳供保价的宗旨。接下来，关注9月中国尿素企业 可能向印度供货的情况，短期消息面对市场情绪扰动较大。我们认为，内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空 间，但价格过高易触发管制措施，法检政策调整以官宣为准。 8月22日盘中，尿素期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1737.00元。截止发稿，尿素主力合约 报1742.00元，跌幅1.75%。 尿素期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 尿素主流现货1660-1740区间，收单一般；供应端，检修逐渐复产，日产19.27万吨，-0.25；需求端，复 合肥开工转下降 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go short on the 01 - 05 spread when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent export expectations have boosted the urea futures market, making it fluctuate on the strong side, and the spot price has followed suit. However, the new order transaction is average. There is still a large export space in July, and the subsequent implementation needs attention. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, with new capacity coming on - stream, the future urea supply - demand remains loose if the export does not exceed the 2023 level. The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will affect the international market, and the export dynamics should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - As of August 22, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1764 yuan/ton (-12). The small - particle ex - factory prices in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1760 yuan/ton (0), 1760 yuan/ton (-10), and 1760 yuan/ton (-20) respectively. The Shandong basis was - 4 yuan/ton (+2), the Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8), and the Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of August 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Although Jiujiang Xinlianxin (520,000 - ton capacity) and Xinjiang Yihua (600,000 - ton capacity) started maintenance on August 20 for over 20 days, new capacity is being released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 22, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-10), and the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 22, 2025, the export profit was 1249 yuan/ton (-42). In July, 570,000 tons of urea were exported, and there is still large export space. The Indian NFL issued a urea import tender, which will affect the international market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 22, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak due to the military parade [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 22, 2025, the sample enterprise total inventory was 1.0239 million tons (+66,500), and the port sample inventory was 501,000 tons (+37,000). The upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]