1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with fundamental pressure in the medium term. The upside is limited due to the gentle release of domestic top - dressing demand, high inventory of mid - stream traders, and the export policy that curbs speculation. The downside is supported by the opening of the export channel. In the long - run, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains high, and the price center may gradually decline, but there may be multi - stage price rebounds due to export releases [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea主力: Closing price was 1,761 yuan/ton (down 12 from the previous day), settlement price was 1,774 yuan/ton (down 4), trading volume was 178,534 lots, open interest was 231,078 lots (up 5,951), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,619 tons (down 235). The turnover was 633.582 million yuan (down 56.772 million) [2] - Basis: Shandong region basis was 109 (up 12), Fengxi - disk was - 31 (up 12), and Dongguang - disk was 69 (up 12) [2] - Month spread: UR09 - UR01 was 65 (down 5) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,860 yuan/ton, 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,840 yuan/ton, 1,730 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,880 yuan/ton respectively. Trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also remained unchanged at 1,870 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 90.16% (up 0.57 percentage points), and the daily output was 207,310 tons (up 1,300) [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 980,600 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons (6.89% YoY) from the previous week. The inventory is expected to continue rising this week due to weakened speculative trading by traders [2]

【冠通研究】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，震荡收跌。6 月 1 日氮肥协会对 6 月的各区 域的尿素出厂指导价建议为 5 月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导价基础 上浮 100 元。受消息影响，今日盘面高开。端午节假期内上游工厂降价吸单， 收单相对顺畅，今日期货盘面影响市场情绪，下游根据转为谨慎。基本面来 看，供应端端午节假期小幅波动，龙华出现临时检修情况，今日华锦复产，总 体供应表现充足。需求端，农业经销商备肥逐渐开启，对尿素行情提供支撑， 复合肥端走货预计持续至本月中旬，但开工率将转弱。上游工厂继续累库，主 要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，今日受氮 肥协会指导价的影响，盘面高开，但目前需求处于空档期，盘面转为下跌，但 是目前仍有农业需求的预期，以及后续出口的影响，盘面预计不会深跌，但供 需相对宽松，农需时期带来的行情反弹上方空间或为不足。 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1800 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1761 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.96%，持仓量 231078 手（+5951 手）。前二十 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The industrial and agricultural demand is tepid, and the enterprise inventory continues to increase. Some factory inventories are reserved for export as export factory inspections are carried out. The operating rates of coal - based and natural - gas - based urea production have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in a loose market supply. The costs are stable as coal and natural gas prices change little. The urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to rise, leading to a month - on - month increase in port inventory. The downstream agricultural demand is growing steadily, with wheat fertilization demand ending in some areas and rice fertilization demand in the southern regions set to increase. The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,790 yuan/ton (-24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (+20). The Shandong basis was 90 yuan/ton (+44), the Henan basis was 70 yuan/ton (+34), and the Jiangsu basis was 110 yuan/ton (+44) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of May 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 980,600 tons (+63,200), and the port sample inventory was 203,000 tons (+40,000) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 507 yuan/ton (+5). The upstream coal - based and natural - gas - based urea operating rates have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The urea export legal inspection information is clear, the urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to increase, with the port inventory rising month - on - month [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of May 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (-2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (-8.33%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 5.88 days (-0.06). The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The port inventory has increased month - on - month due to the expected increase in export demand [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of urea is stable with narrow fluctuations. The supply is in a loose pattern due to high - level production and new capacity release. The cost is stable as coal and gas prices change little. The export window is open, and the port inventory has increased. The agricultural demand is growing steadily, while the industrial demand is weakening, and the factory inventory has slightly increased. The urea market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It shows information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate are provided [19][30][32] 4. Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - The report includes data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit [27][31][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Information about the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and urea enterprises' advance order days are presented [1][44][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume are provided [47][50][53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a neutral state overall. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today. The high daily production and new device commissioning on the supply side, along with marginal changes in demand, are the main logics. The change in export policy is the main risk point [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After a recent rebound, the urea futures price has oscillated and declined. The operating rate and daily production remain at a high level, with new devices being commissioned recently, and the inventory is fluctuating in the short term. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, while that of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is weak in the short term. The international urea price is strong, and the export profit is high but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was announced on May 15 - 16, the price lacks upward momentum. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 23, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.05 million tons (+10), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract price oscillates and declines. With high daily production and short - term inventory decline, agricultural demand is gradually improving. After the export policy is announced, the price tends to be stable. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other data have also changed accordingly. The import dependence of PP has generally shown a downward trend. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1850, the Shandong spot price is 1860, the Henan spot price is 1850, and the FOB China price is 2587 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR09 contract is 1827, the basis is 23, and the prices of UR01 and UR05 are 1753 and 1762 respectively [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7548, the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.05 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 917,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 133,000 tons [6].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250526:回落空间有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1753.00 1880.00 | 1766.00 1880.00 | -13.00 0.00 | -0.74% 0.00% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1762.00 | 1772.00 | -10.00 | -0.56% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1827.00 | 1849.00 | -22.00 | -1.19% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | -1.14% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1880.00 | 1890.00 | -10.00 | -0.53% | | 河北 | (小顆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The restriction on urea exports has been lifted, and manufacturers are exporting in an orderly manner with self - discipline. The willingness to ship goods to ports for export has increased, leading to a rise in urea port inventories. Urea production facilities that were shut down have restarted, and the operating rates of both coal - based and gas - based production have increased. The supply side remains at a high level. The operating rates of downstream compound fertilizers and melamine have decreased month - on - month, and the rigid demand from downstream industries has weakened. Due to drought and high temperatures in the north and heavy rainfall in the south, agricultural demand is lukewarm, and inventories in urea factories have accumulated. There are expectations of an increase in short - term downstream agricultural and export demand for urea [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes charts of Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][16][18] 2. Urea Production - It involves charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It contains charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [20][25][26] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It consists of charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [28][33][41] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It has charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [47][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes charts of upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei's urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [46][48][51] Market Data - **Price and Basis**: On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,849 yuan/ton (- 6); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,890 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+ 0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (- 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 31 yuan/ton (+ 6); the basis in Henan was 41 yuan/ton (+ 6); the basis in Jiangsu was 51 yuan/ton (- 4). The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the export profit was 447 yuan/ton (- 6) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of May 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.74 million tons (+ 10.02), and the inventory of port samples was 20.30 million tons (+ 4.00) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of May 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (- 2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (- 8.33%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.35) [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-21 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：钢联 大越期货整理 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 坐标轴标题 U R期现价格及基差 基差 主力收盘 现货 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹后震荡运行。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装 置投产，库存短期快速回落。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工显著回落，复合肥 ...

价格与基差：2025-05-19，尿素主力收盘1847元/吨（-30）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1910 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1900元/吨（-30）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1930元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：53 元/吨（+0）；河南基差：63元/吨（+20）；江苏基差：83元/吨（+20）；尿素生产利润433元/吨（-30），出口利润419 元/吨（-16）。 供应端：截至2025-05-19，企业产能利用率86.40%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为81.72 万吨（-24.84），港口样本 库存量为16.30 万吨（+3.00）。 需求端：截至2025-05-19，复合肥产能利用率40.26%（+2.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为74.82%（-0.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.47）。 前期尿素出口利好情况释放完毕，尿素盘面偏弱运行。尿素停车装置重启，同时部分装置停车检修，整体开工率 窄幅波动，供应端维持高位运行。尿素出口放松预期，下游接货积极性提升明显，工农业均增加采购，工厂订单 量增加，上游工厂库存逐渐下降，港口库存明显增加。当前 ...