交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，综合库存显著累积。需求端，工业 及农业需求均偏弱，农需受天气影响需求偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较 大但对国内价格支撑有限。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1550（+10），基本面整 体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-54，升贴水比例-3.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存185.9万吨（+17.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强 ...

截至2025年10月17日当周，尿素期货主力合约收于1602元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持25118 手。 本周（10月13日-10月17日）市场上看，尿素期货周内开盘报1590元/吨，最高触及1617元/吨，最低下探 至1578元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.06%。 消息面回顾： 10月17日，山西兰花尿素汽提大颗粒出厂报价上调5元/吨至1610元/吨；安徽红四方尿素出厂报价稳定 至1570元/吨；宁夏和宁尿素执行1510元/吨，装置停车检修，该厂产能70万吨。 截至10月15日，国内尿素企业总库存量161.54万吨，较上周增加17.15万吨，环比增加11.88%。 北方近期连续降雨，农业需求推后，尿素流向下降；复合肥企业装置减负荷停车进一步增多，短期企业 继续清降库存，装置开工率或多维持低位。 机构观点汇总： 一德期货：供应端，日产18.12万吨，-0.34，突发故障，供给回落较多；需求端，复合肥开工低位，以 销定产，消化库存阶段，三聚氰胺开工持平，出口离港为主，短期供需维持宽松；关注宏观面、小麦肥 启动采购托底，出口消息等；印标开标，投标量366万吨，计划购买量200万吨；短期01暂看1580-165 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-17 港口库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-16，尿素主力收盘1604元/吨（+4）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-44 元/吨（+6）；河南基差：-54元/吨（+6）；江苏基差：-44元/吨（-4）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（+10），出口利润989 元/吨（+3）。 供应端：截至2025-10-16，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-16，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，山西及内蒙低价成交延续。目前部分地区农业秋季 肥进行中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多，今 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by low downstream demand despite some improvement in purchasing due to better weather. The market is expected to remain in a short - term low - level oscillation, with attention on winter storage. Although the upstream factories are holding up prices, the demand is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation and weak market performance [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and ended up closing slightly higher. Upstream factories are trying to maintain prices, but downstream demand is low and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. - India's RCF urea import tender on October 15 received 25 offers, with a total bid volume of about 3.7019 million tons, including 1.9532 million tons for the west coast and 1.7487 million tons for the east coast [1]. - The daily urea production is around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. Next week, more enterprises are expected to be under maintenance than resuming production, so production may slightly decrease. Demand is weak, with agricultural dealers being cautious in stockpiling, compound fertilizer factories reducing their operating rates, and other industrial demands affected by rainfall [1]. - Domestic demand is sluggish, and urea inventories in factories are accumulating at an increasing rate. Although the purchasing situation has improved with better weather, the market is still weak and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [1]. Futures Market - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1599 yuan/ton, went down during the session, and closed at 1604 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The trading volume was 315,491 lots, a decrease of 7,195 lots [2]. - On October 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,438, a decrease of 55 from the previous trading day. Among them, Heilongjiang Longxin decreased by 15 and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 40 [2]. - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2,762 lots and the short positions decreased by 4,873 lots. For example, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 2,552 lots, and CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 5,911 lots [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories are holding up prices, but downstream demand is low, and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [6]. - On October 16, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.14% [7]. - From October 10 to October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week [9].

尿素日报 | 2025-10-16 厂内库存继续累积，印标投标数量公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-15，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（+3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-3）；河南基差：-60元/吨（-3）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（+0），出口利润986元/ 吨（-30）。 供应端：截至2025-10-15，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-15，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，山西及内蒙低价成 交延续。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Spot prices are weakly stable, and attention should be paid to the bidding situation of Indian tenders - Enterprises have recently lowered their quotes, and low - price transactions have improved. The transactions in the mainstream regions have improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes, the transactions cooled down. Low - price transactions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia continued - Some areas are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has decreased. The compound fertilizers required for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to late October. Recently, the weather in the autumn harvest areas has improved, and the shipment of compound fertilizers is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment - The operating rate of melamine has rebounded, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to long - term - The current inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in Northeast China - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still the export window periods. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to the subsequent dynamics of urea exports [1][2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - Include figures such as Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][17] Urea Production - Include figures such as urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [20][25] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures such as production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][32][35] Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Include figures such as urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][39][42] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Include figures such as compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and days of orders to be delivered [49][50][51] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include figures such as upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][57][61]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, the current valuation of urea is low, and further short - selling is not recommended. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On October 14, it was 1597.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan (-0.81%) from October 13 [1] - UR05: On October 14, it was 1671.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan (-0.42%) from October 13 [1] - UR09: On October 14, it was 1707.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 13 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule Urea) - Shandong: On October 14, it was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.31%) from October 13 [1] - Shanxi: On October 14, it was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan (0.69%) from October 13 [1] - Henan: On October 14, it was 1540.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.32%) from October 13 [1] - Hebei: On October 14, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from October 13 [1] - Northeast: On October 14, it was 1620.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan (-0.61%) from October 13 [1] - Jiangsu: On October 14, it was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.96%) from October 13 [1] Spreads - Shandong Spot - UR01: On October 14, it was - 121.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan from October 13 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On October 14, it was - 74.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from October 13 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite Coal Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Anthracite Coal Price (Shanxi): On October 14, it was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 2900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 2500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 5084.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Jiangsu): On October 14, it was 5100.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan (-1.92%) from October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1606 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1592 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1602 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 321992 lots. [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The current urea market has weak supply and demand with prominent supply pressure. Affected by continuous rainfall, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, enterprise shipments are poor, and inventory continues to accumulate. Although the daily output and operating rate have slightly declined, the daily output of 199,400 tons is still at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to be weak [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 10, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined. The closing price was 1,597 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,614 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,593 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 161,000 lots, a decrease of 83,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 339,000 lots, an increase of 72,000 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price - Urea 2510: The latest price was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 1.06%. The open interest was 2,610 lots, a decrease of 125 lots, and the trading volume was 315 lots [6] - Urea 2511: The latest price was 1,573 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.26%. The open interest was 20,231 lots, a decrease of 780 lots, and the trading volume was 6,130 lots [6] - Urea 2601 M: The latest price was 1,597 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 1.36%. The open interest was 338,864 lots, an increase of 28,175 lots, and the trading volume was 161,077 lots [6] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of urea in major domestic regions remained generally stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,580 yuan/ton (basis - 17 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,510 yuan/ton (basis - 87 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1,500 yuan/ton (basis - 97 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,610 yuan/ton (basis 13 yuan/ton) [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industrial Information - Demand: Affected by continuous rainfall in many places, the demand for urea in the industrial and agricultural fields has weakened. Most enterprises' inventories are overstocked as product shipments and flows are not as expected [8][9] - Supply: The domestic urea supply pressure is large, and the problem of weak domestic demand is still prominent. Although the daily output level and operating rate have slightly declined recently, they are still at a relatively high level, with the daily output of the urea industry at 199,400 tons. It is expected that the inventory of upstream production enterprises will continue to accumulate, and the market pressure will be large in the near future [9] 3.4 Market Outlook - The short - term urea futures market may maintain a weak operation due to the current supply - demand imbalance and supply pressure in the urea market [10]

尿素日报 | 2025-10-14 现货成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-13，尿素主力收盘1610元/吨（+13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1520 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-80 元/吨（-33）；河南基差：-90元/吨（-33）；江苏基差：-80元/吨（-43）；尿素生产利润0元/吨（-10），出口利润982 元/吨（+11）。 供应端：截至2025-10-13，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-13，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交情绪较好，部分厂家小幅上调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥 进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多，今年冬小麦用肥需 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-10 节后厂内库存高位累库 市场分析 策略 单边：中性 跨期：UR01-05逢高反套 跨品种：无 价格与基差：2025-10-09，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（-61）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1570 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1570元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-49 元/吨（+21）；河南基差：-39元/吨（+41）；江苏基差：-39元/吨（+31）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（-40），出口利润1083 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-09，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-09，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 国庆期间尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌。本周期内内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续 累积，本周较国庆 ...