事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 拓普集团（601689）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 业绩承压，机器人+液冷业务加速布局 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度营收 209.3 亿元、同比+8.1%，归母净利 19.7 亿元、同比-12%，扣非归母净利 18.2 亿元、同比-10%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 26,600 | 30,157 | 35,150 | 42,669 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.0% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 21.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,001 | 3,064 | 3,751 | 4,724 | | 同比增速(%) | 39.5% | 2.1% | 22.4% | 25.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.73 | 1.76 | 2.16 | 2.72 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 39 | 32 | 25 | | 市净率( ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.03 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.24 billion yuan, up 40.9% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.77 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.132 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.8% growth [1] Business Segments - **Refrigeration Components**: The growth is driven by global low-carbon energy policies and expanding overseas demand, with expectations for stable growth in air conditioning component exports. The company is increasing investments to meet future product demand changes [1] - **Automotive Parts**: The company has improved its operational status by adjusting the pace of previous personnel and equipment investments [1] - **Robotics**: The establishment of a robotics division in 2025 and ongoing construction of overseas production bases are expected to support future capacity expansion [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, while the period expense ratio improved to 12.1%, down 3.7 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin increased to 14.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, and the net profit attributable to shareholders margin rose to 14.6%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points [2] - The company implemented cost-reduction measures under the "精兵强将" initiative, which has led to improved efficiency and profitability, indicating a positive trend that is expected to continue [2] Investment Outlook - The company is diversifying its business, with strong growth in the home appliance sector and benefits from the rapid development of the liquid cooling industry. The automotive parts business is expanding its customer base and global orders [2] - Future growth is anticipated in new business areas such as energy storage and robotics, which will contribute to a diversified growth trajectory [2] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.28 billion, 4.94 billion, and 5.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 45.8x, 39.7x, and 33.9x [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations on November 6, with notable performance in the electric grid equipment and solid-state battery sectors, while humanoid robots and AI hardware stocks showed weakness [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.2 billion yuan compared to Thursday [1] Competition Insights - The 77th session of the simulated stock trading competition, "掘金大赛," began on November 3, with participants starting to engage actively [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate trading with a capital of 500,000 yuan, running from November 3 to November 14, with registration open until November 14 [1] Prize Structure - The pre-tax cash rewards for each competition session include: 688 yuan for the 1st place, 188 yuan for 2nd to 4th places, and 88 yuan for 5th to 10th places, with remaining profitable participants sharing a total of 500 yuan [3] - Monthly leaderboard prizes include: 888 yuan for the 1st place, 288 yuan for 2nd to 4th places, and 188 yuan for 5th to 10th places, with additional smaller rewards for lower ranks [3] Market Sentiment - Some experienced participants believe that the upward trend of the Shanghai Composite Index is continuing, indicating potential for further gains [3] - There is a shift in market focus, with suggestions to explore opportunities in lower-performing sectors such as waste incineration power generation, electric grid equipment exports, and the silver economy [3] Sector Opportunities - Participants are optimistic about the liquid cooling and humanoid robot industries, despite short-term declines in humanoid robot stocks, as the long-term outlook remains positive [4] - The electric grid equipment sector was highlighted prior to the market opening on November 5, with specific mention of Hongfa Co., Ltd. reaching its daily limit [5] Additional Resources - Participants in the competition gain access to a tailored market commentary service, "火线快评," for six trading days, which includes insights on market trends and investment logic [7] - Registration for the competition can be completed through the Daily Economic News App, with specific steps outlined for participants [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.19%, and a net profit of 399 million yuan, up 13.13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The single-quarter revenue for Q3 was 1.45 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.34%, while net profit for the same period was 183 million yuan, up 8.35% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 29.4%, with a net margin of 12.92%. Although the gross margin decreased by 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, it showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.43 percentage points [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI wave and the increasing penetration of liquid cooling solutions, with a cumulative delivery of 1.2 GW in the liquid cooling chain by March 2025 [4]. - The company has strong domestic clients and is gradually making breakthroughs in overseas markets, including a partnership with Intel [5]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 600 million yuan, 1.02 billion yuan, and 1.43 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 112, 66, and 47 [6][10]. - The total revenue is expected to grow from 3.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.82 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.23% [10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 5.09 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.58 billion yuan by 2027 [12]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of cooling solutions and equipment, continuously enhancing its R&D and expanding its client base both domestically and internationally [6]. - The increasing capital expenditure from internet companies is expected to drive strong business growth for the company [4]. - The company has established strong relationships with major domestic clients such as Tencent and Alibaba, while also making strides in international markets [5].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the value of liquid cooling components for NVIDIA's next-generation AI servers will approach 400,000 RMB [2][5] - The cooling component value for the GB300 NVL72 system is approximately 49,860 USD (around 36 million RMB), representing a 20% increase compared to the GB200 NVL72 system [2][3] - The total cooling component value for the upcoming Vera Rubin NVL144 platform is expected to rise by 17%, reaching about 55,710 USD (approximately 40 million RMB) [2][3] Industry Trends - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is surging due to the exponential increase in data center computing density and the rising power consumption of CPUs and GPUs [3][4] - NVIDIA's GPUs are projected to have a maximum thermal design power (TDP) of 2,300W by the time the Vera Rubin platform is launched in late 2026, and 3,600W for the VR300 platform in 2027, making cooling capabilities a critical bottleneck for performance [4] Market Growth - The liquid cooling industry is entering a phase of explosive growth, with IDC forecasting that China's liquid cooling server market will reach 3.39 billion USD by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.6% [5] - From 2025 to 2029, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to remain at an impressive 48%, with the market size potentially exceeding 16.2 billion USD by 2028 [5] Stock Performance - Several liquid cooling concept stocks have seen significant price increases this year, with companies like Siyuan New Materials, Yinvike, and Kexin New Source doubling their stock prices [7] - Many of these companies reported strong performance in the first three quarters, with net profits for several firms, including Yimikang and Tongfei Co., doubling year-on-year [7] Company Developments - Companies such as Ice Wheel Environment and Silver Wheel Co. have been actively involved in providing cooling equipment for data centers and liquid cooling systems [7][8] - Silver Wheel Co. has outlined a strategic plan for liquid cooling development, anticipating that thermal management will surpass 50% of its overall business scale in the long term [7]

Core Viewpoint - Runze Technology (300442) is actively advancing its 200MW intelligent computing center project in Langfang B District, which is designed according to liquid cooling standards, with a strategy to quickly respond to customer demands as liquid cooling needs are expected to scale up [1] Company Summary - The company is currently in the process of orderly advancing the construction of its intelligent computing center project [1] - The core strategy at this stage is to prepare for a rapid response to customer needs when liquid cooling demand is significantly released [1]

Core Insights - Sichuan Chuanrun Co., Ltd. and Siemens (China) Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement during the 8th China International Import Expo, focusing on AI computing power, data centers, zero-carbon energy solutions, and industrial AI integration to promote high-quality development in the green digital industry [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Focus - The collaboration will leverage the explosive growth in global AI computing power demand and the acceleration of zero-carbon energy initiatives under the "dual carbon" goals, aligning with current market development directions [2] - The partnership aims to create high-performance, low Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) green computing solutions and replicable zero-carbon benchmark projects, enhancing economic solutions for the industry [2][3] Group 2: Three Key Areas of Cooperation - The first focus area is green computing infrastructure, where Chuanrun will utilize its liquid cooling technology (with a PUE as low as 1.05 and reliability of 5000 insertions without leakage) combined with Siemens' smart microgrid and AI algorithms to address high energy consumption in AI data centers [3] - The second area involves the large-scale implementation of zero-carbon parks, integrating Chuanrun's energy power system capabilities with Siemens' energy carbon management platform to create efficient and energy-saving zero-carbon park models [3] - The third area is AI innovation applications, where both companies will establish a joint laboratory for smart microgrids and zero-carbon technologies to develop predictive maintenance and carbon management services, tapping into the digital market potential [3] Group 3: Long-term Value Enhancement - Siemens' Digital Empowerment Center manager expressed enthusiasm for collaborating with Chuanrun, highlighting the impressive potential and speed of the Chinese market in green computing and zero-carbon energy transition [4] - Chuanrun's president noted that the partnership will accelerate the company's strategic upgrade in green energy equipment and digital services, aiming to create a first-mover advantage in emerging sectors like AI computing liquid cooling and green energy [4] - The collaboration is expected to strengthen Chuanrun's position in high-end energy equipment and provide a certain momentum for long-term growth through joint technological innovations and benchmark project implementations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company faced performance pressure in Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 8.1% year-on-year to 20.93 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.0% to 1.97 billion yuan, primarily due to declining sales of key customer pickup models, new factory constructions in Mexico and Thailand, and increased R&D investments [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue rose by 12.1% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter to 7.99 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 13.7% year-on-year and 7.9% quarter-on-quarter to 670 million yuan [4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 19.2%, while the selling, general, and administrative expenses ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points to 8.9% [5]. Business Segment Performance - Automotive electronics continued to drive revenue growth, with a 52.4% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.97 billion yuan. Interior functional components also saw steady growth, with a 14.0% increase to 6.87 billion yuan [5]. - The robotics segment is expected to contribute positively to profits, with the company having sent samples of linear and rotary actuators to clients. The gross margin for the electric drive system business was 30.6% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The liquid cooling segment has achieved self-research on core components and is extending its technology to various fields, with initial orders of 1.5 billion yuan from data center providers like Huawei and Nvidia [5]. Global Strategy and Platform Development - The company is accelerating its global layout, planning to increase closed-loop air suspension production capacity to 1.5 million sets per year by 2025, with new factories in Mexico and Thailand [6]. - The dual-platform strategy for smart vehicles and robotics is being developed, with the company supplying high-value components to major clients such as Tesla and BYD [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is actively seizing opportunities in artificial intelligence and expanding its overseas market presence, with a focus on three main areas: intelligent computing centers, smart energy solutions, and clean energy [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.706 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 344 million yuan, up 44.71% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.973 billion yuan, representing an 18.65% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 711.41% [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters reached 348 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 102.94% [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the integration of three key areas: AI, liquid cooling, and energy solutions, to create a robust platform for heterogeneous computing power [2]. - The company is also developing products tailored for overseas markets and has established deep collaborations with leading domestic companies [4]. Product Development - The company has launched a full lifecycle service for liquid cooling data centers and has developed high-density liquid cooling products to address the energy consumption challenges of high-performance GPUs [3]. - The company is preparing for the transition to 800V high voltage direct current (HVDC) as a mainstream power supply solution for future AI data centers [4]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 556 million yuan, 913 million yuan, and 1.270 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 50, 30, and 22 times [5].

Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 240.29 billion and net profit at 32.42 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.86% and 40.85% respectively [2][4] - The company is optimistic about the robotics sector, establishing a dedicated robotics division and building overseas production bases to enhance global competitiveness [3] - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company positioned as a global leader in key components, benefiting from the demand expansion driven by AI data centers [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 240.29 billion, up 16.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 32.42 billion, up 40.85% year-on-year [2] - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 77.67 billion, reflecting a 12.77% increase, while net profit reached 11.32 billion, up 43.81% year-on-year [2] Profitability Drivers - The increase in gross margin is attributed to a shift in product mix towards high-margin competitive products, economies of scale, and cost reduction strategies [2] - The net profit growth is a result of the "精兵强将" strategy implemented since the second half of the previous year, aimed at improving overall operational quality [2] Robotics Sector Development - The company views robotics as a core future industry, anticipating a transformation in the global economic landscape with traditional labor-intensive jobs being replaced by efficient, intelligent robots [3] - A robotics division has been established, and overseas production bases are under construction to optimize supply chain and support future capacity expansion [3] Liquid Cooling Industry Positioning - The company is a leader in the liquid cooling sector, benefiting from the rapid development of AI data centers [4] - Current product focus includes components for external and refrigerant sides, with plans to extend offerings to server-side products as a new growth driver [4] Capacity Utilization - The company has adjusted its investment strategy to match production capacity with order demand, avoiding overcapacity issues [6] - Current capacity utilization rates are aligned with market demand, and the company is committed to maintaining efficient production management [6] Capital Expenditure Plans - Future capital expenditures will focus on global capacity layout, ongoing R&D investment, and digital transformation to support long-term growth in core businesses [7] - Ongoing projects include capacity construction in Poland, Thailand, Mexico, and various locations in China [7]