近日有专家对我们提到，杭州一家公司通过冷镦（也可称为冷精锻）技术，将人形机器人丝杠的运行寿命提升 到了真正可用级别，成本公摊也有望降到可用范围。 目前，人形 机器人有两个 部位主要 用 到 丝杠 ，分别是 腿部线性执行器 和 灵巧手 ，前者多采用 反向行 星滚柱丝杠， 后者则多 用微型滚珠丝杠， 两者 精度要求 都 不 算 低， 在原先，市场上大多 灵巧手用的微 型滚珠丝杠， 多是由磨床制造，设备要求较高， 精密加工和装配的要求也高 ，大多企业单位生产时间达数 十分钟，能保证余量、精度、效率都能满足的企业少之又少，大多最终生产的丝杠产品运行 寿命普遍就 仅 20 万次 ，对于落地而言成本过高，因为这意味着如果人形 机器人每天在工厂干 12 小时，每分钟抓放 10 次工件，一天 约拉升约 7200 次， 20 万次 最晚 1 个月 就会报废更换 。 反向行星滚珠丝杠运行架构是螺母带丝杠运行，因此设计上难度在于需要紧凑适配机器人关节、制造公差小、 可传大载荷扭矩，而且球轴承随着磨损精度衰减问题较为明显，动态响应滞后，加之加工慢、产量低，行星滚 柱丝杠的精度等级从 P0 到 P7 ， P0 最高，人形机器人大多得需 ...

Investment Highlights - The company is covered for the first time by CICC with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 38.60, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to FY2026 at 13x P/E [1] - The company is a leading player in the high-end CNC lathe market, with strong internal competitiveness [1] Business Performance - Established in 2003, the company is rooted in China's manufacturing sector, with a stable growth in its main business. The company is primarily focused on lathes (Swiss-type lathes) and supplemented by machining centers and grinding machines [1] - For FY2025 (Q2 2024 to Q1 2025), the company expects revenue of CNY 4.262 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 780 million, representing year-on-year growth of 36.6% and 63% respectively [1] Market Position and Expansion - The metal cutting machine tools are long-lasting general-purpose equipment, with demand influenced by capital expenditures in the automotive and general manufacturing sectors. The cumulative growth rate of metal cutting output in China from January to August 2025 is 14.6%, indicating a recovery in the industry [1] - The CNC machine tool market in China is projected to be CNY 71.5 billion in 2024, with the company holding a market share of 4.1% (by revenue), ranking first in the lathe market [1] - In March 2025, the company announced the construction of its sixth factory in Pinghu, which is expected to add approximately 3,000 units of assembly capacity per year [1] Profitability and Dividends - The company has shown significant growth in profitability, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 40% since FY2023, reflecting stable operational quality [2] New Growth Areas - Since 2024, the company has actively expanded into AI liquid cooling connector processing and humanoid robot components, such as lead screws and reducers [2] - The market has not fully recognized the incremental potential of liquid cooling and robotics, but the company remains optimistic about the opportunities these sectors present [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS of CNY 2.6 and CNY 3.1 for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with a CAGR of 22%. The target price of HKD 38.60 corresponds to a P/E of 13x for FY2026, with current prices reflecting P/E ratios of 11x and 10x for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% [2]

1）金属切削机床为长寿命通用设备，景气受汽车、通用制造业等资本开支影响。2025M1-8月我国金属 切削产量累计增速14.6%，较2024年景气修复，该行认为 2026 年行业需求有望持续。2）根据MIR， 2024年我国数控机床市场715亿元，津上市占率为4.1%（按营收），为车床市占率第一名。 2025年3月 公司宣布建设平湖第六厂区，公司预计新增组装产能约3,000台/年。 盈利能力大幅增长，高分红回馈投资者 智通财经就APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预计津上机床中国(01651) FY2026/2027年EPS分别为2.6/3.1 元，CAGR为22%，给予公司目标价38.6港元，对应FY2026年P/E为13x，现价对应FY2026/2027年P/E为 11/10x，对应涨幅空间17.1%，，公司是中高端数控车床领军企业，内生竞争力突出，首次覆盖给予"跑 赢行业"评级。市场暂未充分重视液冷、机器人的增量潜力，而该行坚定看好其带来的机会。 中金主要观点如下： 扎根中国制造业，主营增长稳健 公司2003年成立，控股股东为日本津上集团，形成车床（走心机）为主，加工中心、磨床为辅的产品矩 阵。2025FY（20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Zhaofeng Electromechanical Co., Ltd. held a conference call on August 29, 2025, with 25 institutions, discussing the company's operational performance and core competitiveness. Group 1: Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 344 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.88% [1] - The main business segment, which includes the production of automotive hub bearing units, is expected to grow by about 40% in 2025, with the current revenue contribution from this segment at 35% [2] Group 2: Core Competitiveness - The company is recognized as a high-tech enterprise specializing in automotive hub bearing units, with significant core competencies including: 1. **Technological Innovation**: The company has a comprehensive R&D and production system, covering various vehicle hub bearing units, and has over 100 valid patents [1] 2. **Production Line Layout**: The company is advancing intelligent and flexible transformations to meet diverse business needs and is actively expanding its industrial chain [1] 3. **Product Differentiation**: With years of experience, the company has developed nearly 5,500 types of bearing products, providing full lifecycle services to enhance added value [1] 4. **Strategic Transformation**: The company is adapting to automotive industry trends by promoting electric control business expansion, with small batch supply of electric control products already initiated [1] 5. **Research Collaboration**: The company has established multiple research centers and collaborates with overseas institutions, bringing in postdoctoral researchers to enhance R&D innovation [1] 6. **Intelligent Production**: As a model enterprise for "integration of informatization and industrialization" in Zhejiang Province, the company has implemented fully automated production lines since 2014 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (initial coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a leader in automotive wheel hub bearings, with a stable growth in its core business and strategic investments in humanoid robot manufacturers and screw production capacity [6][11] - The company has a competitive advantage with a gross margin exceeding 30%, driven by its focus on high-end products and intelligent manufacturing [6][11] - The company is expanding its business into automotive electronics and high-end industrial bearings, with significant growth potential in these emerging sectors [6][11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 665 million - 2025E: 757 million (+13.7%) - 2026E: 973 million (+28.6%) - 2027E: 1,287 million (+32.3%) [2] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2024A: 140 million - 2025E: 169 million (+20.7%) - 2026E: 204 million (+20.8%) - 2027E: 248 million (+21.7%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 2.0 in 2024 to 3.5 in 2027 [2] Business Development - The company has established a dual-driven strategy focusing on both aftermarket and OEM markets, with significant growth in the wheel hub bearing unit [11][12] - The aftermarket business is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the European and American markets, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and aging [6][11][22] - The OEM business is poised for high growth, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with production expected to ramp up significantly [6][11][30] Emerging Business Areas - The company is actively investing in automotive electronics, with a project for 300,000 sets of vehicle-mounted electronic controls expected to launch by the end of 2025 [6][11] - The company is also developing high-end industrial bearings, with several products in the research and testing phases [6][11] Investment and Profitability - The company has seen a significant increase in investment income, contributing to a 20% year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 2025 [6][11][48] - The company is building an "automotive + robotics" ecosystem through strategic investments in various companies, enhancing its growth potential [6][11][54] Production Capacity and Industry Trends - The company has established a subsidiary to focus on humanoid robot screw production, with a project for 1 million sets of humanoid robot ball screws approved for production [6][11][61] - The domestic market for ball screws and planetary roller screws is expected to grow significantly, with the company positioned to capture a larger market share [6][11][64]