Stock Market Performance - The stock market rebounded quickly this week, recovering from last week's losses, with the CSI 2000 rising by 4.0% and the CSI 1000 by 3.8%[1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 5.6%, reaching a three-year high, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 8.4%[1] - Among 31 primary industries, only 5 sectors experienced declines, with metals, military, computer, and media sectors all rising over 5%[1] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume decreased to 1.7 trillion CNY, a 15% drop from last week's 1.99 trillion CNY[1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 stood at 12.6, with a Z-Score of -0.1, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E of 39.6 and a Z-Score of -0.3[1] - The computer industry is the only sector with a P/E Z-Score exceeding 1, currently at 1.3[1] Bond Market Trends - The bond market showed weakness this week, with yields rising significantly due to various factors, including policy adjustments and market expectations[1] - The overall funding environment was balanced but slightly loose, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 195.5 billion CNY on Monday[1] - The market's interest rate expectations shifted, leading to an increase in yields, particularly in the interbank certificate of deposit rates[1] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by 3.4% to 103.9, while the euro appreciated by 4.3%, marking its largest weekly gain in nearly a decade[1] - Offshore RMB strengthened by 0.7% against the dollar, closing at 7.24[1] - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to 2909 USD/ounce, while Brent crude oil and WTI saw declines of 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively[1]

首席点评: 集运领涨 橡胶下跌 近期美国制造业活动陷入停滞，通胀压力持续升温，1月消费者支出环比下降0.2%，贸易赤字扩大 至982亿美元，初请失业金人数突破23万大关。而亚特兰大联储模型显示，美国一季度GDP或萎缩 2.825%，创2019年以来最差表现。美国供应管理协会3月3日公告，美国2月ISM制造业PMI回落至 47.1（低于荣枯线），创2024年6月以来新低。国务院关税税则委员会3月4日发布公告称，经国务院 批准，自2025年3月10日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税：对鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花 加征15%关税；对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关税。3月7日 收盘集运指数（欧线）涨超4%。 重点品种： 集运、原油、黄金 原油 ： 周五夜盘上涨1.9%。中国国家统计局数据显示，2月份PMI为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分 点，制造业景气水平明显回升。美国总统特朗普根据一项北美贸易协定豁免了来自加拿大和墨西哥 的商品一个月，使其免受他本周实施的25%关税的影响。伊拉克将宣布恢复通过伊拉克-土耳其输油 管道从半自治的库尔德斯坦地区出口原油。但在库尔德斯坦地区运营的八家 ...