自10月1日新财年开始以来，国会与特朗普总统之间的对峙已持续34天，导致范围广泛的联邦项目停 摆。这场僵局冻结了约1.7万亿美元的政府可自由支配资金，占美国年度总支出的三分之一。数千名联 邦雇员被强制休假或无薪工作，从低收入家庭援助、军人薪资到机场运营等关键服务均受到影响，为立 法者带来了巨大的政治压力。 在长达一个多月的政治僵局导致美国联邦政府部分停摆后，华盛顿终于出现了解冻的初步迹象。国会两 党资深议员开始释放谨慎乐观的信号，暗示可能存在打破僵局的路径，为市场对美国经济和政治稳定性 的担忧带来一丝缓解。 两党高层谨慎表态 据路透报道，最新的积极动态来自参议院共和党高层。参议院多数党领袖John Thune周一向记者表示， 他对结束政府停摆感到"乐观"，并认为"我们正接近一个'出口'"。这被视为一个虽小但意义重大的语气 转变，打破了此前数周的绝对僵局。 结束停摆的希望主要源于国会山高层人士态度的微妙变化。参议院多数党领袖John Thune在表达乐观的 同时也告诫称"别操之过急"，暗示谈判仍处在脆弱阶段。他的言论被视为一个重要的风向标，表明共和 党领导层可能正积极寻求解决方案。 然而，民主党方面虽也感知到进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].

另据美国政府3日表示，在法官裁决要求食品援助计划继续实施后，美国联邦食品救济项目"补充营 养援助计划"将获得部分资金。一份法庭文件显示，美国农业部将动用应急资金，部分支付11月份的"补 充营养援助计划"食品福利金。作为美国社会保障体系的重要组成部分，该项目覆盖全美总人口约八分 之一。 央广网北京11月4日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，美国航空协会3 日表示，自10月1日美政府"停摆"以来，由于空中交通管制人员配备问题，已有超过320万名美国航空旅 客受到航班延误或取消的影响。 美国航空协会表示，10月份延误的航班中，有16%是由于人员配备问题引发的，仅10月31日一天， 就有超过30万旅客受到影响，这是自政府"停摆"开始以来受影响最严重的一天。 ...

张尧浠：基本面风向有待明确、金价短期仍具调整走低风险 上交易日周一(11月3日)：国际黄金低开后，震荡走盘收线，维持后市仍有再度筑底转强的倾向，但走势仍处于中轨下方，附图指标仍处于空头信号发展 阶段，故此，除非重回中轨上方才能加大看涨力度再刷新高，否则将有继续维持震荡调整或再度走低的预期。 具体走势上，金价自亚市低开至3990.81美元/盎司，先行走低录得日内低点3962.57美元，之后触底回升，维持在3995-4030美元区间来回震荡，并在美盘 录得日内高点4030.12美元，最终有所回撤走低，收于4001.34美元，日振幅67.53美元，相对于上周五收盘价4003.59美元，收跌2.25美元，跌幅0.056%。相 对于开盘价收涨10.53美元，涨幅0.26%。 影响上，受周末黄金税收成本上升加剧投机资金的短期抛压，再加上美国民主党参议员敦促特朗普直接参与结束政府关门的谈判，令其金价低开走弱，但 由于逢低买盘，以及美国10月份制造业活动连续第八个月萎缩，各美联储官员对12月降息持开放态度而最终维持震荡波动而收线。 展望今日周二(11月4日)：国际黄金亚市早盘先行偏弱运行，受到技术压力和美元走强的影响，但美元 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant disconnect between economic growth and consumer confidence, indicating structural issues in the economy [6][8][24] - It discusses the implications of recent economic data, including GDP growth, employment figures, and asset price movements, suggesting a shift in capital towards tangible assets [10][12][22] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for Q3 remains at 3.9%, but the consumer confidence index has dropped to 53.6, marking a five-month low [6] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1, while the services PMI is at the critical threshold of 50.0 [7] Employment Situation - The unemployment rate is estimated at approximately 4.34%, with ADP data showing a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September [9][14] - Historical patterns indicate that when private employment turns negative while GDP remains positive, at least one economic indicator is misaligned with reality [9] Asset Movements - Gold prices have surpassed $4,003, reflecting a year-to-date increase of about 45%, while the dollar index has decreased by approximately 10% since the beginning of the year [10] - Bitcoin is hovering around $110,000, with a concentration of short positions in the market [11] Market Signals - The article suggests that capital is moving from paper assets to physical safe havens, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [12] - The Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in December is estimated at 69.8%, amidst a backdrop of significant economic uncertainty [18] Future Observations - Key upcoming data points include the ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment figures, and services PMI, which will be critical in assessing economic health [22] - If manufacturing PMI remains below 50 and ADP job growth is under 50, the likelihood of a recession could increase significantly [22] Broader Implications - The article notes that past government shutdowns have led to stock market rebounds, but the current debt situation is concerning, with projections of federal debt reaching $38 trillion by 2025 [20] - The impact of artificial intelligence on productivity is noted, but it is suggested that this may be masking underlying weaknesses in the manufacturing sector [21]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a pullback last week, hitting a two-week low of $3,886 on October 28, but rebounded significantly on October 30, despite a slight decline on October 31, closing at $4,003 per ounce. October saw a cumulative increase of 3.7%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials on October 31 reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, leading to a three-month high in the US dollar index, which put pressure on gold prices. However, market sentiment remains cautious due to the impending longest government shutdown in US history and ongoing international geopolitical tensions, providing some support for gold [1] - The North American region officially transitioned to standard time on November 2, affecting trading hours for major financial instruments, including gold and silver, which will now open at 7:00 AM Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy on gold, which may have a short-term negative impact on gold prices but could provide long-term support [2] - The ongoing conflict in Israel has resulted in over 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries, complicating the ceasefire situation between Israel and Palestine [2] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are in an overbought state, suggesting potential for a significant pullback. Historical data indicates that similar overbought conditions often lead to deep corrections, as seen in November 2024 with a maximum monthly fluctuation of $225 [2] - The current fundamental landscape is mixed, with both bullish and bearish factors at play, contributing to the expectation of significant volatility in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Aggressive trading strategies suggest entering short positions in the $4,005-$4,010 range with a stop loss at $4,015, targeting a reduction to $3,980-$3,970 [3] - Conservative strategies recommend waiting for a rebound to test the $4,030-$4,040 range before entering short positions, with a stop loss at $4,050 and targeting a reduction near $4,000 [3]

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 922.58 | 0.66 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11455 | 14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151373 | -5518 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 261467 | -17774 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104455 | -1274 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 93562 | 2032 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 87816 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 658851 | -6693 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 917.5 | 0.9 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11350 | -120 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.08 | 0.24 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

11 月 3 日亚市尾盘，现货黄金呈现震荡回升态势，当前价格徘徊在 4016 美元 / 盎司左右，较日内盘中低点反弹幅度接近 54 美 元，避险资金的回流为金价提供了有力支撑。 不过，随着避险情绪升温，金价快速收复失地并再度向 4000 美元 / 盎司关口发起冲击。当前投资者普遍关注美国政府停摆的潜 在影响，若此次停摆持续时间延长，可能对美国经济运行产生连锁反应，进一步推动避险资金向黄金市场流动。 后续市场焦点将集中于美国经济数据表现。北京时间 11 月 3 日 23:00，美国 10 月 ISM 制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）将正式公 布，市场普遍预期该数值为 49.1。业内分析认为，这一数据的表现将直接影响美元短期走势，进而作用于黄金价格：若数据优 于预期，可能助力美元走强，对金价形成压制；若数据不及预期，美元或面临调整压力，为金价反弹提供更多动能。 值得注意的是，在美联储上周完成谨慎降息操作后，市场对后续货币政策走向的预期持续调整。芝加哥商品交易所集团的 "美联 储观察工具" 显示，当前市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 69%，较一周前 91.7% 的概率出现明显回落，这一预期 变化也 ...

本周周一，黄金早盘低开走弱，美元指数高开走强，受上周五美联储多名官员反对12月降息，以及黄金 税收成本上升加剧投机资金的短期抛压，再加上美国民主党参议员敦促特朗普直接参与结束政府关门的 谈判等等，减弱了金价看涨需求； 本周将迎来重磅数据密集周，多国制造业与服务业PMI集中亮相、央行利率决议落地、大小非农就业数 据重磅登场，叠加中美欧等核心经济体贸易帐、消费信心指数等数据，再加上美联储官员密集发声。金 价的波动风险将会加大。 同时，预计新换任的美联储主席，下一任美联储主席的第二轮面试即将开始，相关人选可能会在圣诞节 前确定。市场预期特朗普将选择更加鸽派的人员。也将会增强后市的更加宽松的环境，也将利好金价。 所以即便是12月11日凌晨美联储不降息，也难以结束次轮降息周期，难以对金价造成持续打压；如进一 步降息，将会大大增强后续看涨前景。 但个人认为都只是短期压力，长期未来一年左右，金价仍具看涨前景和很大空间，一方面，虽然多名美 联储官员反对12月降息，但概率上，12月降息仍然较高，并且10月的政府停摆，势必将影响经济和就业 数据，也将推升降息预期；也将令11月金价走势处于经济数据疲软的利好助力之中，故此，本周利空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].