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美联储FOMC声明及主席鲍威尔新闻发布会要点总结:年内第三次维持利率决议不变 鲍威尔重申美联储无需急于降息
news flash· 2025-05-07 19:26
美联储FOMC声明及主席鲍威尔新闻发布会要点总结:年内第三次维持利率决议不变 鲍威尔重申美联 储无需急于降息 ②鲍威尔表示,美联储不需要急于调整利率。 ③鲍威尔表示,美联储的政策是适度限制的。 ④鲍威尔表示,特朗普要求降息的呼吁完全不影响美联储的工作。 ⑤被问及3月预期两次降息时,鲍威尔表示,现在不能做出预测,要等到6月份。 二、通胀方面 ①FOMC声明显示,委员会判断失业率和通胀上升的风险已经加剧。 ②FOMC声明显示,通胀仍然处于略高企水平。 ③鲍威尔表示,通胀已经大幅度下降。 ④鲍威尔表示,短期通胀预期有所上升,长期通胀预期与目标保持一致。 ⑤鲍威尔表示,美联储有义务稳定通胀预期。 ⑥鲍威尔表示,失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经上升,但还没有出现在数据中。 三、美国经济 ①FOMC声明显示,美国经济前景不确定性进一步增加。 ②FOMC声明显示,经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。 ③鲍威尔表示,经济处于稳健状态。 ④鲍威尔表示,贸易的异常波动使衡量GDP变得复杂。 ⑤鲍威尔表示,经济路径的不确定性极高,下行风险已增加。 ⑥鲍威尔表示,GDP数据的波动不会真正改变美联储的处境。 四、金融市场 ①FOMC声明显示, ...
5月8日讯,分析师评美联储利率决议:很明显,美联储现在既担心通胀率上升,又担心失业率上升,这对一个美联储来说并不是一个很好的问题,这也为一场有趣的新闻发布会埋下了伏笔。鲍威尔很可能会被问到哪个风险更大。
news flash· 2025-05-07 18:19
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently concerned about both rising inflation and increasing unemployment, presenting a challenging situation for the central bank [1] Group 1 - Analysts anticipate that Jerome Powell will be questioned about which risk, inflation or unemployment, poses a greater threat [1]
美联储利率决议公布前主要品种行情一览。
news flash· 2025-05-07 17:57
美联储利率决议公布前主要品种行情一览。 ...
0507:这一局我已出牌,美联储阁下准备如何应对?!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 15:23
点击下方关注许亚鑫,加★星标★,充值鑫仰! 晚上的直播课,我分别从"美联储利率会议与中美会谈","巴印冲突与欧佩克+加速增产","清迈倡议与文明之鹰2025","财新PMI与三巨头发布会"四个方 面解读了基本面的一些信息,并结合美联储,中美,瑞士,巴基斯坦,印度,欧佩克,金银油,10+3,中埃,人民币,A股,港股等给出了接下来的布局 思路。 今天的基本面发生了很多事,包括巴印冲突,美国与胡塞武装达成停火协议,中美计划在5月9日-12日瑞士举行会谈,欧佩克+计划加速增产,以及三巨头 的重磅发布会,这些内容我已经在今夜的直播课上为大家作了跟踪与解读。 这里重点说一下, 美联储今夜明晨的利率决议。 | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.8% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.1% | 25.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 3.2% | 35.6% | 54.8% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 96.8% | 63.3% | 19 ...
黄金日内震荡走弱,美联储利率决议能否迎来转折点?立即观看超V研究员Alex多品种实时分析>>>
news flash· 2025-05-07 12:30
黄金日内震荡走弱,美联储利率决议能否迎来转折点?立即观看超V研究员Alex多品种实时分析>>> 相关链接 ...
解析美联储利率决议对黄金的影响,领峰贵金属专题课程实时聚焦
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 07:42
3.避险需求升温:地缘冲突与全球经济复苏的不确定性,持续支撑黄金的避险买盘。2025年初至今,央行购 金规模同比增加12%,创历史新高。 在全球经济舞台上,美联储议息会议一直扮演着举足轻重的角色。每一次利率决议的公布,都如同投入平 静湖面的巨石,在全球金融市场激起千层浪。黄金作为非息资产,其价格对美联储利率决议尤为敏感。加 息通常提升持有黄金的机会成本,而降息则降低这一成本。 美联储利率决议对全球金融市场的影响 1.资金流动层面:美国利率的升降会引发国际资金的大规模流动。当美联储加息时,国际资金受高收益吸 引流入美国,新兴市场资金则面临流出压力,导致新兴市场股市、债市动荡,货币贬值。 2.利率路径影响:若美联储暗示降息,实际利率下行将直接提振黄金吸引力。历史数据显示,降息周期中金 价平均年涨幅达15%。 3.专业策略与教育:每天线上课程,由资深分析师解读全球市场行情动向与金价走势。 随着美联储未来可能在2025年下半年启动降息周期,黄金或迎来新一轮上行空间。高盛预测年内金价有 望触及3700美元,并在2026年中挑战4000美元关口。 领峰贵金属交易平台作为专业的贵金属交易平台,为投资者提供了优质的交易服务和 ...
A股高开低走,今晚美联储利率决议来袭,明天会怎么走?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 07:20
我们再来看看板块的情况:军工板块涨幅居前。有机构在研报中表示,2025年一季度主动型基金前十大 军工股持有流入总市值绝对值的前十中,军工电子板块标的占80%。过去三年军工电子板块较其他军工 子板块超跌较多,在长尾效应下周期反弹锐度或将凸显,板块景气度修复时或成为先选。 房地产板块开盘冲高,一度大涨。消息面上,"央妈"在发布会上公布,降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25个百分点,5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%,其他期限的利率同步调整。再加上五一假期多 地楼市活跃度提升,在一定程度上反映了市场信心的修复情况,也表明在政策利好叠加效应下,住房需 求得到进一步的释放。 化工股震荡走强。有研报表示,2024年以来行业固定资产投资增速明显放缓,综合整治"内卷式"恶性竞 争写入2025年工作报告,供给端逐步迎来边际改善。 A股高开低走,今晚美联储利率决议来袭,明天会怎么走?今天市场的走势,还是没有脱离"魔咒",但 凡高开幅度大的,低走就是大概率事件,又一次演绎了高开低走。盘面上看,军工股震荡走强,化工板 块再度活跃,地产板块开盘冲高后震荡回落。昨天领涨的科技股方向陷入分化,机器人方向局部活跃, AI概念股集体 ...
凌晨两点,鲍威尔“硬刚”特朗普
news flash· 2025-05-07 06:58
美联储利率决议前瞻:按兵不动,静待政策明朗化 美联储5月议息会议重磅来袭, "硬数据"与"软数据"分化加剧,鲍威尔或坚持"观望"立场。 凌晨两点,鲍威尔"硬刚"特朗普 金十数据5月7日讯,美联储本次不降息几成定局,但这或许是关税阴霾下最后一次预测结果笃定的会议,市场翘首以盼 后续利率走向,料吃定"闭门羹"的特朗普又会否卡点"上线对轰"鲍威尔?查看更多... ...
国际黄金连续强势反弹 预计美联储将维持利率不变
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-07 03:04
Group 1 - International gold prices rose on May 6, closing at $3431.54 per ounce, an increase of $97.35 or 2.92% from the previous day, with a daily high of $3434.80 and a low of $3323.14 [1] - As of May 6, the gold ETF holdings were reported at 937.96 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in market bullish sentiment towards gold [2] - The total value of gold ETF holdings on May 6 was approximately $102.23 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous day's value of about $98.11 billion [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has advanced the nomination of Michelle Bowman for the position of Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lead to more lenient banking regulations compared to her predecessor [2] - Market expectations suggest that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may not provide clear guidance in his upcoming press conference, as uncertainties regarding tariffs and their impact on inflation and the economy persist [3] - Analysts predict that this uncertainty will continue until the Federal Reserve's June meeting unless significant changes occur [3] Group 3 - Recent trading analysis indicates that gold prices have shown a strong rebound, supported by a reversal signal and mid-line support, suggesting a bullish trend remains intact [4]
贵金属日报:维持低多策略-20250507
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a low-buy strategy for precious metals [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market rose strongly on Tuesday, influenced by factors such as strong domestic buying demand after the May Day holiday, concerns about potential US tariffs on imported drugs, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the escalation of the India-Pakistan situation. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield also boosted precious metal valuations, while the slowdown of the US stock market rally reflected a decrease in risk appetite. The market focus has shifted to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. In the short term, precious metals may remain volatile at high levels but are expected to be in an upward-trending pattern. The medium to long term is also expected to be bullish [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Gold 2506 contract closed at $3441.8 per ounce, up 3.6%; US silver 2507 contract closed at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.96%. SHFE gold 2506 main contract closed at 797.2 yuan per gram, up 1.39%; SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8235 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% [2]. - SHFE gold main continuous contract was at 794.8 yuan per gram, up 1.86%; SGX gold TD was at 792.87 yuan per gram, up 1.72%; CME gold main contract was at $3441.8 per ounce, up 2.94%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was at 8235 yuan per kilogram, up 0.65%; SGX silver TD was at 8221 yuan per kilogram, up 0.71%; CME silver main contract was at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.33%. SHFE - TD gold was at 1.93 yuan per gram, up 141.25%; SHFE - TD silver was at 14 yuan per kilogram, up 5.56%. CME gold - silver ratio was at 102.94, up 0.6% [5]. Fund Holdings and Inventories - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.43 tons to 937.96 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 13958.7 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 959.8 tons; as of the week ending April 25, SGX silver inventory decreased by 42.8 tons to 1640.1 tons [3]. - SHFE gold inventory was 15648 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1263.0356 tons, down 0.69%. SHFE gold position was 127407 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold position was 937.96 tons, down 0.15%. SHFE silver inventory was 959.785 tons, up 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15592.713 tons, up 0.13%. SGX silver inventory was 1640.07 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position was 232016 lots, unchanged; SLV silver position was 13958.73495 tons, unchanged [15][16]. This Week's Focus - New Fed journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that the Fed will be more inclined to "control inflation" in the face of the dilemma of economic recession and inflation pressure and may not cut interest rates without clear signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and an increase in the unemployment rate. Investors are turning their attention to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Although this interest rate decision is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged, investors are concerned about Powell's forward - looking guidance on future interest rate cuts at the press conference. This week's data is generally light. There will be a series of events including the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference early Thursday, the Bank of England's interest rate decision and related reports in the evening, and several speeches by Fed officials on Friday. Also, pay attention to the progress of global trade war negotiations [3]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, it may be bullish. Gold's monthly chart remains strong, and the daily chart has turned strong. In the short term, London gold should focus on the resistance at $3430. If it breaks through, it can be further expected to reach $3500, with support at $3350 and strong support at $3200. London silver's trend is slightly weaker than that of gold, and it is short - term range - bound, with support at $32 and resistance at $33.7. If it breaks through, it can be expected to reach $34 and $34.5. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [4]. Other Market Indicators - The US dollar index was at 99.2342, down 0.56%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.2097, up 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 41218.83 points, down 0.24%. WTI crude oil spot was at $59.09 per barrel, up 3.43%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9356 per ton, up 1.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.36%, up 0.69%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 2.04%, down 1.92%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 6% [21].