丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 公司研究丨点评报告丨厦门银行（601187.SH） [Table_Title] 分红比例新高，利息压力改善 ——2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 厦门银行 2024 全年分红比例同比提升近 1pct 至 31.5%（占归母净利润比例），2024 年度股息 率 5.38%，在 A 股上市银行中位居前列。从长期角度，考虑厦门银行目前的资产规模基数并不 庞大，且底层资产质量没有历史包袱，新一届董事长履新后，有望在未来提升扩表速度，具备 成长空间。短期一季度业绩下滑主要受到投资收益波动影响，今年后续关注负债成本及利息净 收入改善趋势，以及银行业整体零售风险改善节奏。目前估值仅 0.57x2025PB，维持"买入" 评级。 分析师及联系人 厦门银行（601187.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 分红比例新高，利息压力改善 2] —— ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the Q1 performance of three banks (China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, and Industrial Bank) from five perspectives: asset quality, liability structure and interest rate, asset structure and yield, profitability, and valuation and margin of safety [1]. Asset Quality - The focus is primarily on loan quality, with detailed statistics provided for each bank's normal, attention, and non-performing loans [2][3][4][5]. - China Merchants Bank has a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, while Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank have ratios of 1.06% and 1.08%, respectively, indicating that China Merchants Bank maintains better asset quality [3][4][6]. - The 90-day delinquency rate is lowest for Ping An Bank (0.68%), followed by China Merchants Bank (0.73%) and Industrial Bank (0.92%), suggesting that Ping An Bank has the most robust asset quality [8]. - The attention loan ratio is lowest for China Merchants Bank (1.36%), while Ping An Bank's ratio has decreased by 15 basis points, indicating an improvement in asset quality [9][10]. - The unified caliber non-performing loan ratio shows Ping An Bank at 1.35%, China Merchants Bank at 1.46%, and Industrial Bank at 1.83%, further confirming Ping An Bank's stronger asset quality [11]. Liability Structure and Interest Rate - China Merchants Bank has a significantly lower average interest rate on deposits (1.29%) compared to Ping An Bank (1.81%) and Industrial Bank (1.79%), indicating a substantial cost advantage [20][21][26]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities' interest rate for China Merchants Bank is also lower than that of its peers, reinforcing its competitive edge in funding costs [22][26]. Asset Structure and Yield - Ping An Bank's yield on interest-earning assets is 3.61%, which is higher than China Merchants Bank's 3.23% and Industrial Bank's 3.49%, indicating better asset yield management [33]. - The article notes that Ping An Bank's retail loan yield has shown positive growth, although the reasons remain unclear due to lack of disclosure from competitors [27][33]. Profitability - In Q1 2025, the net interest margin for Ping An Bank is 1.83%, China Merchants Bank is 1.91%, and Industrial Bank is 1.80%, with Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank benefiting from a faster decline in funding costs [37]. - The total assets and liabilities of Ping An Bank have not expanded significantly, but its deposit growth is strong, indicating a stable liability structure [35]. - China Merchants Bank shows synchronized growth in total assets and liabilities, reflecting a robust performance [36]. Valuation and Margin of Safety - The article does not provide specific details on valuation metrics or margin of safety for the banks, focusing instead on the operational performance indicators discussed above.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Bank, with a target price of 8.23 CNY / 6.78 HKD [2][6]. Core Views - CITIC Bank's core revenue growth remains stable, with a balanced development strategy. The bank reported a revenue of 51.77 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.72%. However, operating profit increased by 4.22% to 22.805 billion CNY, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 1.66% to 19.509 billion CNY. The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.16%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 207.1% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In Q1 2025, CITIC Bank's core revenue showed a decline of 3.72% year-on-year, with net interest income and net fee income still achieving positive growth of 2.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The net profit growth of 1.66% indicates effective cost management, with business and management expenses down by 3.3% [6][7]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively. The growth in corporate loans was particularly strong, with general corporate loans increasing by 10.6% [6][7]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.16%, with improvements noted in corporate loans. However, retail loan quality faced some pressure, particularly in credit card loans [6][10]. - **Future Projections**: The report adjusts the revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.6%, 4.1%, and 5.7%, respectively, and net profit growth to 1.5%, 3.0%, and 5.0%. The target price reflects a price-to-book ratio of 0.62X for 2025E [6][7][8].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the nine A-share listed joint-stock banks in the first quarter is generally unsatisfactory, with four banks experiencing a decline in both revenue and net profit, while only Shanghai Pudong Development Bank achieved growth in both metrics [1][2][3] - Among the banks with declining performance, Huaxia Bank reported the largest drop in both revenue and net profit, with declines of 17.73% and 14.04% respectively, contrasting sharply with its previous year's growth [2][3][4] - The decline in Huaxia Bank's performance is attributed to a significant drop in other non-interest income, which fell by 78.9% due to the bond market's downturn and a high base from the previous year [4] Group 2 - In terms of interest income, six banks reported a year-on-year increase, while Huaxia Bank, Ping An Bank, and Everbright Bank saw declines in net interest income [7] - The net interest margin and net interest spread continued to narrow, further compressing profit margins, although some banks managed to maintain positive growth in interest income through increased credit issuance and cost control [7] - Fee and commission income showed significant variation, with some banks like Huaxia Bank experiencing an increase of 11.45%, while others like Zheshang Bank saw a decline of 13.15% [8] Group 3 - Asset quality remained resilient, with most banks reporting a stable or declining non-performing loan (NPL) ratio compared to the end of the previous year, except for Huaxia Bank and Industrial Bank, which saw slight increases [9] - Huaxia Bank had the highest NPL ratio among the nine banks at 1.61%, exceeding the 1.5% threshold [9] - The provision coverage ratio decreased for seven banks, with Ping An Bank experiencing the largest drop of 14.18 percentage points, indicating potential adjustments in provisioning strategies [10]

4月25日，沪农商行（601825）2024年度业绩说明会在全景网成功举行。首席风险官朱卫对银行资产质 量状况及未来展望进行了深入阐述，他将银行整体资产质量概括为"总体稳健""挑战加大""风险可控"。 2024年末，沪农商行不良贷款率维持在0.97%，与2023年末持平，除一季度有小幅波动外，全年保持稳 定；拨备覆盖率高达352%，处于行业较高水平。这一稳定局面得益于银行长期稳健经营策略， 然而，外部经济环境的复杂性也不容忽视。朱卫指出，当前国内外经济形势给银行资产质量带来一定挑 战。国外关税及国际贸易不利变化冲击外向型企业及国内产业链，国内需求不足导致部分企业经营困 难、群众就业增收压力增大，风险隐患增多。尽管如此，朱卫强调，银行资产质量风险仍在可控范围 内。 对于风险可控的信心来源，朱卫从多个方面进行了说明。一方面，基于对中国经济基本面的长期信心， 中国经济的广阔市场、强韧性和潜力为银行稳健发展提供了有力支撑。另一方面，银行自身的稳健展业 模式也发挥了关键作用。 具体来看，在审批架构上，作为本地法人银行，授信审批层级少、效率高，对重点产品设置专业集中审 批，确保风险偏好有效执行。投向政策方面，坚持服务实体 ...

Core Insights - Qilu Bank's revenue growth for 2024 is projected at 4.6%, with a net profit growth of 17.8%, indicating strong financial performance [1] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.19% at the end of 2024, down from the beginning of the year [1][5] Financial Performance - For 2024, interest income growth is at 1.7%, recovering from a decline of 2.1% in the first three quarters, while non-interest income growth is at 12.7% [2] - The bank's net interest margin for 2024 is reported at 1.51%, with a decrease of 23 basis points year-on-year [4] - The bank's total loans grew by 12.3% in 2024, with corporate loans increasing by 15.5% and retail loans by 3.2% [3] Asset Quality - The bank's NPL generation rate decreased to 0.63%, reaching a new low since its listing, indicating improved asset quality [5] - The corporate loan NPL ratio has decreased, while the real estate sector shows an increase in NPLs, although its impact is limited due to its small proportion of total loans [5] Capital and Dividends - The bank's dividend payout ratio for 2024 is set at 26%, with an expected dividend yield of 4.5% [5] - The bank's valuation is currently at 0.71x 2025 price-to-book ratio, suggesting potential for capital growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ruifeng Bank [6]. Core Views - Ruifeng Bank's Q1 2025 performance shows revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million yuan, up 6.69% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio at the end of Q1 2025 were 0.97% and 326.08%, respectively, remaining stable and improving by 5.2 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [1][2]. Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: In Q1 2025, operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 5.12% and 6.69% year-on-year, with respective declines of 10.2 percentage points and 4.6 percentage points compared to 2024. The net interest income increased by 2.68% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.46%, down 4 basis points from the previous year [2]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio remained at 0.97%, while the attention loan ratio increased by 9 basis points to 1.54%. The provision coverage ratio improved by 5.2 percentage points to 326.08% [3]. - **Asset and Liability Growth**: Total assets and loans at the end of Q1 2025 were 229.3 billion yuan and 136.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.07% and 11.67%. Deposits increased by 13.83% year-on-year, primarily driven by personal time deposits [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit growth rates for 2025 are projected at 9.98% and 8.24%, respectively. The report anticipates continued stable growth in loans within the region and an increase in market share for Ruifeng Bank, alongside improvements in asset quality, which may enhance profit potential [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" [7] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the core revenue of Hangzhou Bank showed a year-on-year growth rate of 9.3%, benefiting from high growth in scale and a recovery in middle-income [2][6] - The bank's revenue increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while profit rose by 17.3%, although both growth rates slowed compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank's net interest income, middle-income, and other non-interest income changed by +6.8%, +22.2%, and -18.0% respectively, compared to 2024 [2][6] Revenue and Profit Overview - Q1 2025 revenue was 9,761 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a slowdown of 7.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5,133 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [12] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% [4] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The interest margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 3 basis points to 1.32%, primarily due to a larger decline in asset yield compared to the improvement in liability costs [3] - The asset yield fell by 25 basis points to 3.17%, while the cost of liabilities decreased by 16 basis points to 1.85% [3] - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, 0.54%, and 0.69% respectively [4] Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 16 basis points to 9.01% as of Q1 2025, supported by strong internal capital generation [5] - The total amount of convertible bonds converted reached 4.36 billion, accounting for 29.1% of all convertible bonds [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 15.02%, 11.35%, and 10.73% respectively [6] - The target price is set at 20.16 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 1.00, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 38.38 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with a notable acceleration in growth compared to previous quarters [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 16.98 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year growth, maintaining a high growth trajectory [1] - The company's return on average equity (ROAE) for 2024 is 16.00%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability compared to peers [1] - Non-interest income grew significantly by 20.2% year-on-year, with other non-interest income surging by 35.3%, benefiting from a substantial decline in interest rates [1] - The company has a high provision coverage ratio of 541.45%, providing ample room for future profit growth despite a slight decline from previous periods [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, interest income increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.41%, showing stability despite a slight decrease [2] - Total assets reached 2.1 trillion yuan, with total loans and deposits growing by 14.7% and 21.8% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a slight improvement in overdue rates, indicating effective asset quality management [2] - The company has increased its write-off efforts, with approximately 5.5 billion yuan written off in 2024, which is 3 billion yuan more than the previous year [2] Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 20.43 billion yuan, 24.42 billion yuan, and 28.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 19.6%, and 17.0% [4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 0.73x, 0.63x, and 0.54x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 2.81 yuan in 2024 to 4.72 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [12] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 66.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.1 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [4][7] - The annualized weighted average ROE for 2024 was 13.59% [4] - The company has increased its cash dividend proposal to 5.943 billion yuan, accounting for 22.77% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net interest income grew by 17.3% year-on-year, while non-interest income saw a decline of 9.9% [7] - The net interest margin at the end of 2024 was 1.86%, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter [7] - Total assets increased by 15.3% year-on-year, with loans and deposits growing by 17.8% and 17.2% respectively [7][11] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% at the end of 2024, with a projected annualized NPL generation rate of 1.17% [8][10] - The company’s provision coverage ratio was 389%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [8][10] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 4.38 yuan in 2025, 4.83 yuan in 2026, and 5.34 yuan in 2027, with corresponding profit growth rates of 6.5%, 10.3%, and 10.7% [7][11] - The projected growth rates for total assets, loans, and deposits are 13.3% to 17.0% over the next few years [11]