大家好，我是卫明。 特朗普发起的关税战影响正在加深显现。今天聊聊最新情况，全文尽量无废话。 4月29日，美国市场一些最大的鞋类品牌请求特朗普暂缓加征关税。 这次不是一个品牌，而是美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会（FDRA）牵头，耐克、阿迪达斯、斯凯奇、安德玛等76个品牌联署写信请求豁免"对等关 税"政策，避免企业倒闭。 这封联名信里强调，平价鞋类公司无法承受高达150%-220%的综合关税（原有税率已为20%-37.5%），且无法转嫁成本；而且很多订单也因为关 税不确定性而搁置，导致鞋类库存未来几个月可能会面临短缺。 这等于是堵住了商品分散包裹避税的正规路子。 此举导致一些外国品牌停止发货，一些中小企业选择退出美国市场，而一些电商平台被迫重组物流体系，提高商品售价，并加速在美国建设本地 仓库，以避免高关税的直接冲击。 有消息说，洛杉矶港口出现"集装箱堆积但仓库无货"现象，34%订单被迫暂停。同时，根据联合早报报道，香港货运代理业正遭受中美关税战的 冲击，从5月12日起的一周内，从香港到北美西海岸的集装箱班轮有高达41%被取消。 随着时间推移，关税战对中美双方的影响会越来越明显，美国消费者会感受到高价和更慢的物流，而 ...

中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 关注5月关税战对上游原材料的影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月制造业PMI回落。 1）4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制 造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1 和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 服务行业：五一假期旅游消费增长较多。 1）据工信部，一季度，我国规模以上互联网和相关服务企业完成互联 网业务收入4118亿元，同比增长1.4%；规模以上互联网企业研发经费增速加快，共投入研发经费204.5亿元，同比 增长4.6%。2）据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假期5天全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游 总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-05-07 上游：1）能源：国际油价假期受关税影响回落较多。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、 ...

Market Overview - On May 7, A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.64% to 3337.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.19% to 10101.18 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.40% to 1994.38 points [1] - The total market saw 3481 stocks rise and 1712 stocks fall, with 99 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets reached 965.8 billion [1] Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - A policy interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points was also announced, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] Real Estate Sector - Following the policy announcements, the real estate sector showed initial strength, with stocks like Sanxiang Impression and Tianbao Infrastructure hitting the daily limit up [3] - A report from Huatai Securities indicated that the real estate industry is entering a phase of incremental policy support, with a focus on core cities, particularly first-tier cities, for recovery [3] Military and Transportation Sectors - The military sector experienced significant gains, with stocks such as Tongyi Aerospace and Chenxi Aviation hitting the daily limit up [3] - The intelligent transportation and ride-hailing sectors also performed actively, with stocks like Dazhong Transportation and Jinjiang Online reaching the daily limit up [4] Underperforming Sectors - The film and cinema sector lagged, with Shanghai Film dropping over 5%, and other stocks like Happiness Blue Sea and Ao Fei Entertainment also declining [5] - AI applications and semiconductor stocks saw declines, with companies like Runze Technology and Data Port experiencing varying degrees of downturn [5] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the market's reaction to the central bank's policies was largely in line with expectations, indicating that the anticipated monetary easing had already been priced in [5] - The continuation and strengthening of policies are expected to alleviate concerns regarding economic weakness and stabilize the capital market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the erratic behavior of U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs on China, highlighting the inconsistency in his statements and actions, which reflects a broader issue of U.S. arrogance in international relations [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S.-China Tariff Issues - Trump's fluctuating stance on tariffs has included proposals to reduce tariffs by over 50%, followed by a refusal to lower them unless China makes concessions [1][3]. - The U.S. economy is reportedly facing challenges, with a 0.3% contraction in GDP compared to the previous year, and economists warn of a potential 4% decline if the trade war continues [3][5]. - The imposition of tariffs has disrupted normal international trade, harming both U.S. and Chinese businesses and consumers, necessitating the unconditional removal of unreasonable tariffs [5][7]. Group 2: U.S. International Conduct - The U.S. has been accused of spreading false information in international matters, such as the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline incident, undermining global order and stability [3][5]. - There is a call for the U.S. to engage in fair and transparent investigations into international incidents rather than evading responsibility [5][7]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. must abandon its hegemonic mindset and treat other countries equally to foster genuine cooperation and respect on the international stage [5][7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold entered an adjustment phase in late April after a strong rally, and this adjustment is a response to the continuous sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and have a significant range, and it may span the entire month of May. However, after the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [2][6]. - The Sino - US tariff war has entered a stalemate. Although there is a glimmer of hope for a resolution, it will be a long - term, complex process of re - balancing and re - dividing based on each side's strength. The outcome of the tariff negotiation will have a significant impact on the global financial market and gold prices [5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased after the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data [5][6]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - On April 2, after Trump announced a large - scale global tariff policy, gold initially fell with other risk assets, and the comex2506 contract once fell below $3000 per ounce. Then, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, it rebounded strongly and reached the key level of $3500 per ounce in just two weeks. Subsequently, it has been in an adjustment phase for two weeks. This adjustment is a response to the impact of market expectation changes and Trump's actions on the financial market since December 19, and it is expected to last for several weeks with a significant adjustment range [2]. b) Fundamental Analysis - During the Sino - US tariff war stalemate, the price movement of gold in different trading sessions has changed. In the early and middle of April when gold was rising rapidly, the Asian trading session was more likely to push up the price, while the European and American sessions might see a slight decline. During the adjustment period, the situation is reversed [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is evaluating high - level tariff negotiations with the US. China has set clear conditions for the negotiation, emphasizing that the US should show sincerity by correcting wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is a long - term and complex process, and it is unlikely to be resolved within a few weeks as the US hopes [4][5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts to bring manufacturing back to the US. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data on Friday, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased [5][6]. - Looking ahead to May, gold is in an adjustment phase after a rapid and sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and may cover the whole month of May. After the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the continuous gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [6]. c) Futures Monthly K - Line - The report provides the monthly K - line charts of Shanghai Futures Gold weighted price and comex Gold weighted price, but no further analysis is given [7].

晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱震荡。美国关税的不确定性导致美国消费者信心数 据恶化，美联储主 ...

Group 1 - The recent sharp appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) against the US Dollar has raised significant concerns among various industries in Taiwan, particularly those reliant on exports, which contribute 60% to the GDP [2][3] - The NTD appreciated by 1.247 NTD to 31.064 NTD per USD on May 2, marking a single-day increase of 3.07%, the highest in 36 years [1][2] - The rapid appreciation of the NTD is expected to severely impact low-margin industries, potentially leading to layoffs and business closures [2][3] Group 2 - The semiconductor giant TSMC is projected to face a revenue gap of 70 to 86.4 billion NTD due to the current exchange rate [2] - The NTD's volatility has caused a direct impact on the Taiwan stock market, with a drop of over 400 points recorded on May 5 [5] - The government has acknowledged the challenges posed by the NTD's appreciation, with officials admitting it could significantly affect the high-tech sector's net profits by 4% to 6% for every 1 NTD increase [7][8] Group 3 - The current situation has led to a "currency defense battle" in Taiwan, as market anxieties grow over the stability of the economy [3] - Public sentiment is increasingly critical of the government's handling of the situation, with accusations of mismanagement and failure to protect the economy from external pressures [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the recent fluctuations in the NTD are unprecedented and may not stabilize in the near future, complicating the economic outlook for Taiwan [2][3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The main contracts show a bearish sentiment with 23 contracts rising and 50 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - Significant declines were observed in crude oil (-3.69%), rubber board (-3.51%), and fuel oil (-3.40%), likely influenced by macroeconomic concerns or changes in supply-demand fundamentals [6] Group 2: Key Commodity Movements - Leading gainers included the China Securities 1000 (+2.39%), No. 20 rubber (+2.16%), and urea (+1.95%), suggesting strong interest in these commodities [5] - The most significant inflows were seen in China Securities 1000 (30.84 million), indicating a strong focus from major funds [8] Group 3: Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for apple (+40.06%), caustic soda (+16.87%), and焦炭 (+13.02%), suggesting new funds entering the market [11] - Conversely, significant reductions in open interest were noted for short rice (-6.59%) and rubber board (-23.08%), indicating potential fund withdrawals [11] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities - China's imports of Brazilian soybeans are expected to reach 12 million tons in May, improving domestic soybean supply significantly [12] - The oil factory operating rate is anticipated to rise, with a projected soybean crushing volume of 8.3 million tons in May, driven by high supply pressure and increased processing [12] Group 5: Global Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1%, indicating increased economic downward pressure, with the index remaining below 50% for two consecutive months [15] - China's manufacturing PMI also decreased to 50.4, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion [13] Group 6: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 24.62% in April, with total production reaching 1.73 million tons, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [16] - The palm oil market is expected to face downward pressure due to increased production and weak demand, with prices closing at 7974 yuan/ton [29]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9175 (-25) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1000 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (+0) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2850 (-250) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 285 (-235) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, down 5.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.39 million units, down 7.2% month-on-month, and down 0.77% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.08 million units, down 4.5% month-on-month, and down 3.4% year-on-year [2] - As of May 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed divergence: butadiene industry operating rate was 68.9%, down 2% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 71.9%, up 5.8% month-on-month; semi-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 66.7%, down 7.8% month-on-month; full-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 59.5%, down 9.5% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 2, butadiene port inventory was 36,500 tons, up 1,700 tons month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,850 tons, down 1,790 tons, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month; traders' inventory was 5,100 tons, up 1,490 tons, an increase of 41.3% month-on-month [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on May 6, Maoming Petrochemical's 5,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is scheduled for maintenance starting May 7, lasting approximately 20 days; downstream SBS units will also undergo maintenance [4] Market Analysis - On May 6, crude oil rebounded from low levels, boosting BR slightly, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2506 closing at 11,315 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Tariff issues have led to a decline in demand, and the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to increase significantly in May, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance. The butadiene supply-demand situation remains challenging due to simultaneous maintenance and production ramp-up in domestic facilities, with no significant contraction in domestic supply. Despite many Asian ethylene facilities undergoing maintenance in May, tariff issues may lead to a severe decline in orders for the automotive and tire manufacturing industries in Japan and South Korea, impacting the demand for butadiene in these regions and potentially leading to oversupply, which could increase imports to China or decrease Asian butadiene prices. Therefore, the cost support for BR is limited. In the natural rubber sector, smooth tapping in domestic and foreign production areas is pushing the supply side into seasonal weakness, putting pressure on natural rubber prices. On a macro level, the unresolved "tariff war" continues to create uncertainty in the market. Overall, cost support is limited, and with increased supply and weak demand for styrene-butadiene rubber, BR is expected to face downward pressure [5]

财新观察｜有序推进服务业开放 来源于 《财新周刊》 2025年04月28日第16期 服务业持续开放是经济转型必经之路，也是提升消费水平和生活质量的题中之义 中国服务业规模在三大产业中稳居第一，增加值占GDP的比重不断攀升。图：视觉中国 服务业开放正在提速加力。近日，国务院批复《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方 案》（下称《工作方案》），要求赋予新一轮服务业扩大开放综合试点新内容新任务，主动对 接国际高标准经贸规则，大胆试、大胆闯。《工作方案》从重点服务领域开放、产业创新发展 等多个维度，提出155项具体试点任务，其中多数来自经营主体的日常经营、跨境投资等活动 的实际需要。另外，在既有试点省市基础上，将大连、宁波、厦门、青岛、深圳、合肥、福州、 西安、苏州等9个城市纳入试点范围。 在应对内外部经济挑战，尤其是特朗普发动的关税战的背景下，服务业扩大开放综合试点 彰显了中国扩大高水平对外开放的决心和诚意，是以实际行动维护多边贸易体制。这并非应急 之策，而是一个有序推进的进程所取得的新进展。实际上，自2015年以来，国务院分三批先后 批准了北京等11个省市开展试点。服务业的持续开放符合中国经济发展方向，是经济转型 ...