Economic Development Focus - The upcoming five years will emphasize high-quality economic development, with a renewed focus on building a modern industrial system, moving it ahead of technological innovation in priority[3] - The meeting highlights the importance of optimizing traditional industries while fostering emerging and future industries, indicating a balanced approach to industrial transformation[3] External Environment and Security - The meeting acknowledges a more complex external environment, recognizing both strategic opportunities and risks, marking a shift from previous assessments of a favorable strategic opportunity period[4] - A new emphasis on national security is introduced, with goals expanded to include significant improvements in economic, technological, defense, and international influence by 2035[4] Industrial and Technological Advancements - The construction of a modern industrial system will include a focus on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, enhancing supply chain resilience and security[5] - The meeting stresses the need for original innovation and tackling key core technologies, promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation[5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The strategy will leverage new demands to guide new supply, emphasizing the importance of improving livelihoods and promoting consumption, while ensuring effective investment in both material and human resources[5] - The meeting calls for breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market, highlighting the need for a robust domestic circulation[5] Agricultural and Regional Development - There is a strong push towards building an agricultural powerhouse and improving rural living conditions, which is expected to drive rural housing upgrades[5] - The meeting emphasizes strategic coordination in regional development, advocating for the integration of various regional strategies to enhance overall economic growth[5]

大家好，我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，现在专做中长线投资。最近好多圈里朋友问我，刚开完的二十届四中全会定了十五五规划的调子，里头全是大 词儿，到底跟咱们普通人的钱袋子有啥关系？其实我跟大家说，五年规划从来不是遥远的文件，当年"十一五"提电商、"十三五"讲创新，踩对节奏的都吃到 了红利，这次也一样，藏着能拿好几年的机会。 先给大伙说个我跑线时的老故事，"十四五"刚开始那会，我去安徽采访过一家叫埃夫特的机器人企业，那时候他们还在跟外资拼核心部件的国产化。可就在 这五年里，人家不仅搞定了控制器、减速机这些"卡脖子"的东西，还搞出了智能技术底座，甚至用"以租代售"的模式，让中小厂也用得起机器人。现在再看 十五五规划，明确说要"优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业"，这不就是这家企业的路子嘛？所以别觉得"现代化产业体系"太虚，它就在这些能让传统制 造变聪明的企业里。 这次规划里，"新质生产力"提得特别重，而且不是只盯着新兴产业。我前阵子去无锡，看到一家叫紫微科技的公司，把老厂房改成了商业飞船制造厂，他们 的货运飞船马上要发射，还能帮企业做太空育种、生物制药的试验。还有上海那家峰飞航空，已经用电动航空器给海上石油平台送 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, which aligns with the primary task of Chinese-style modernization [3][5] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry and constructing a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [8] - The focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is on economic construction, with key areas including technology, new industrial chains, domestic markets, consumption, and people's livelihoods [10] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic and innovative measures to build a strong domestic market, accelerate agricultural modernization, enhance social welfare, and promote a comprehensive green transition [12] - The plan highlights the need to combine investments in physical assets and human capital, emphasizing that expanding domestic demand and investing in people are two sides of the same coin [15][17] - The future five years will see a push for high-level opening-up, encouraging high-quality enterprises to enter China while supporting Chinese companies in forming their own industrial chains [20][22] Group 3 - The plan aims to accelerate self-reliance in high-level technology and lead the development of new quality productivity, seizing opportunities from the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [30] - It stresses the importance of original innovation and tackling key core technologies, promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [32] - The plan calls for breaking down barriers to market flow and optimizing resource allocation to create a virtuous cycle of demand and supply [39] Group 4 - The plan identifies key areas for technological breakthroughs, particularly in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced nuclear energy technologies, which are expected to see explosive growth in the next five years [45][49]

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining China's development blueprint for the next five years [1][2] - The session emphasized the importance of unity under the leadership of Xi Jinping and the need to implement the spirit of the meeting to achieve socialist modernization [1][2] - Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period were highly praised, highlighting significant advancements in economic strength, technological capabilities, and overall national power [1][2] Group 2 - The approved document serves as a guiding framework for the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a new mobilization for advancing Chinese-style modernization [2] - The session's top-level design and strategic planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan provide clear direction and pathways for the Chinese modernization endeavor [2][3] - Emphasis was placed on building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy, which boosts confidence in traditional manufacturing sectors [2][3] Group 3 - There is a call for innovation-driven development, industrial upgrading, and the integration of technology and industry to enhance the quality and efficiency of the modern industrial system [3] - The session highlighted the need for agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, focusing on specific industries such as wine production and cultural tourism [3][4] - Local governments are encouraged to align their actions with the central government's decisions, fostering a collective effort towards achieving Chinese-style modernization [3][4]

Group 1: Government Initiatives and Plans - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, viewing it as a mobilization for advancing Chinese-style modernization, particularly in Liaoning [1][2] - The provincial Industrial and Information Technology Department aims to integrate technological and industrial innovation, focusing on new industrialization and the construction of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [1] - The provincial Transportation Department plans to enhance the transportation infrastructure and logistics systems, targeting nine key tasks to improve the efficiency and quality of transportation services [2] Group 2: Market Regulation and Quality Improvement - The provincial Market Supervision Administration is committed to enhancing market order and promoting economic development by focusing on quality improvement and regulatory compliance [3] - The administration will strengthen competition reviews and anti-monopoly measures to facilitate the construction of a unified national market [3] - The agency aims to ensure food safety through comprehensive regulatory measures and to support high-quality economic development [3] Group 3: Statistical and Economic Development - The provincial Statistics Bureau plans to focus on statistical modernization and economic monitoring to provide scientific data for development decisions [4] - The bureau will conduct major national surveys to enhance the understanding of economic conditions and inform future planning [4] - The Liaoning Consulting Group aims to transition from traditional consulting to comprehensive strategic consulting, emphasizing digital transformation and resource integration [4] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - Liaoning Wuyi Eight Internal Combustion Engine Parts Co., Ltd. expresses confidence in future growth, aligning with the call to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and develop a modern industrial system [5] - The company plans to leverage new strategic opportunities to enhance its competitiveness in the international market [6] - The Jinzhou Economic Development Zone focuses on optimizing the business environment and enhancing the value chain in metallurgy and new materials [6] Group 5: Innovation and Talent Development - The Shenyang-Fushun Demonstration Zone aims to become a hub for technological and industrial innovation, focusing on high-end manufacturing and emerging industries [7] - The Northeast Pharmaceutical Group is committed to a talent-driven innovation strategy, planning to recruit high-level talent to support its R&D efforts [7] - The emphasis on technology and innovation is seen as a critical factor for driving high-quality development in the region [7]

Core Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of unifying thoughts and actions to ensure the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the scientific planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for economic and social development [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development - The session highlights the need to consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy, promoting the renewal of traditional industries and the development of emerging and future industries [2][4] - The focus is on enhancing green development momentum and creating a new quality of productive forces [2][4] - The session calls for a comprehensive deepening of reforms and expansion of opening-up to better leverage the role of economic system reforms [2][4][5] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The session identifies accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and strength as a strategic task, reflecting the central government's emphasis on technological innovation [3] - The goal is to build a high-level technology province by 2035, focusing on original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs [3] Group 3: Industrial System - The session stresses the construction of a modern industrial system and the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing [4] - It aims to create a modern industrial system with Jiangsu characteristics, integrating various technological and industrial innovations [4] Group 4: Financial and Market Regulation - The financial system is directed to serve the real economy and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovations [6][10] - The market regulation authority aims to enhance service for the construction of a modern industrial system and ensure safety in food, drugs, and industrial products [9] Group 5: Social Governance and Development - The session emphasizes the importance of social governance and the need for a comprehensive approach to enhance the effectiveness of social governance [11] - It highlights the role of various departments in promoting high-quality economic and social development through targeted actions and community engagement [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak this week, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating downward. At the macro - level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee set "high - quality development" as the core task for the 14th Five - Year Plan period, which may bring new impetus to steel consumption. The demand structure of steel will shift from traditional real - estate construction to high - end manufacturing, green infrastructure, and new - quality productivity. In terms of fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability rate of steel mills declined significantly, and the molten iron output dropped notably, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the long run, the logic of the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but in the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly [10][11] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Cost End - The blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils was - 56 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace gross profit continued to shrink. The spot price was about 90 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7] Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The daily average output of molten iron was 2.399 million tons this week, with a significant decrease, and the supply - side pressure decreased marginally. The output of hot - rolled coils was moderately high, and attention should be paid to whether the output can decrease in the future [8] Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The demand rebounded significantly, but the inventory reduction was slow. The export increased week - on - week, and the demand level was neutral [9] Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1492 million tons. The inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still high [10] Strategy Recommendation - The recommended strategy was to wait and see [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presented multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, futures contract price differences, and price differences between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, coated coils, and galvanized sheets [17][21][36] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report showed charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces, and the inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated sheets [56][57][62] 4. Cost End - The report included charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, the price of scrap steel, the daily average molten iron output, the cost of molten iron, and the prices of steel - making pig iron and billets [77][78][82] 5. Supply End - The report presented charts of the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils in different regions and samples, as well as the weekly output of coated and galvanized sheets and their capacity utilization rates [90][91][104] 6. Demand End - The report showed charts of the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the production and sales of automobiles, the production of agricultural machinery, household appliances, metal containers, railway locomotives, and other products related to steel demand [107][108][111]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee established "high - quality development" as the core task during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, which may provide new impetus for steel consumption. From a fundamental perspective, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. In the long - term, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - world demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.16%. The long - process output was 1.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%. The short - process output was 0.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.22%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, with a significant decrease. The supply - side pressure was gradually reduced [6]. - **Demand Side**: This week, the apparent rebar demand was 2.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%. The demand showed a slight week - on - week increase and was neutral [7][8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social rebar inventory was 4.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. The total inventory was 6.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 45.7%. The rebar inventory has been continuously decreasing after the holiday, and the inventory contradiction has been gradually alleviated [9]. - **Profit**: The hot metal cost was 2,646 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 153 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9% [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Rebar Futures and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was 36 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 50 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 86 yuan/ton [20][22]. - **Roll - Rebar Spread**: The Beijing roll - rebar spread was 230 yuan/ton (last week: 240 yuan/ton), the Shanghai roll - rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (last week: 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou roll - rebar spread was - 10 yuan/ton (last week: - 20 yuan/ton) [25]. - **North - South Spread**: The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai rebar spread was - 37 yuan/ton (last week: - 56 yuan/ton) [28]. - **Disc - Coil Premium**: The Beijing disc - coil premium was 230 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), the Shanghai disc - coil premium was 160 yuan/ton (last week: 150 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou disc - coil premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [30]. - **Rebar - Billet Spread and Domestic - Foreign Spread**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3,070 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3,100 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 456 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of Southeast Asian rebar was 468 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of US rebar was 985 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of EU rebar was 570 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of UAE - produced rebar in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton [33]. - **Rebar - Coke Ratio and Rebar - Ore Ratio**: The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,107 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 917 yuan/ton [36]. 3. Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 153 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2,226 yuan/ton, the hot metal cost was 3,293 yuan/ton, and the average hot metal cost of 64 steel mills was 2,646 yuan/ton [39][47] 4. Supply Side - **Weekly Output**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%, and the cumulative output was 91.381 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The long - process output was 1.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The short - process output was 0.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [51]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52% (previous value: 53%) [54]. - **Hot Metal Output**: This week, the average daily hot metal output was 2.4 million tons (previous value: 2.41 million tons) [59]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.45 million tons (previous value: 0.42 million tons), in the southern region was 0.78 million tons (unchanged from the previous value), in the eastern region was 0.85 million tons, in Jiangsu was 0.39 million tons, in Shandong was 0.08 million tons, in Anhui was 0.13 million tons, in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.06 million tons [62][65][68] 5. Demand Side - **Building Materials Trading Volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of Shanghai building materials was 18,800 tons (unchanged from last week). The trading volume of building steel in the northern region was 21,195 tons, in Beijing was 7,900 tons, in the eastern region was 44,478 tons, in Shanghai was 5,100 tons, in Hangzhou was 8,100 tons, in the southern region was 39,650 tons, in Guangzhou was 4,700 tons, in Chengdu was 3,110 tons, in Chongqing was 4,700 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,600 tons [71][73][74] - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly rebar consumption was 2.26 million tons, the weekly rebar consumption in the eastern region was 0.97 million tons, in the southwestern region was 0.34 million tons, in the southern region was 0.32 million tons, in the northern region was 0.2 million tons, in the central region was 0.18 million tons, in the northeastern region was 0.16 million tons, and in the northwestern region was 0.16 million tons [79][81][84] - **Cement Price and Net Exports/Imports**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton [86] 6. Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the social rebar inventory was 4.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, with no week - on - week change, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. The total inventory was 6.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0%, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%. The Tangshan billet inventory was 1.29 million tons (previous value: 1.3 million tons) [89][91] - **Regional Inventory**: The social rebar inventory in 132 cities was 6.24 million tons, in the eastern region was 3.03 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.82 million tons, in Shanghai was 0.31 million tons, in the southern region was 0.7 million tons, in the northern region was 0.86 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.17 million tons, in Beijing was 0.39 million tons, in the central region was 0.51 million tons, in the northwestern region was 0.43 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.22 million tons, in Xi'an was 0.2 million tons, in the southwestern region was 0.61 million tons, in the northeastern region was 0.41 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.25 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.16 million tons [94][97][103]

受访券商首席表示，在党的二十届四中全会结束之后，按照惯例在会后一周左右公布中央关于"十五 五"规划的建议稿，2026年3月份的两会按惯例将审议并对外发布"十五五"规划《纲要》。 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊：关于科技创新，需要注意的两个细节是"抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革 的历史机遇"和"要加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关"。目前处于新一轮技术革命的关键历史阶段，加 强"原始创新"将有助于中国在全球科技创新中建立先行优势。 中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛：五年规划总体思路的演变，体现了政策理念的与时俱进。增速目标 逐渐柔性化，而创新、生态、安全等领域的约束则更突出。经济发展更加重视"质的有效提升和量的合 理增长"，把"坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合"写入原则。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟：会议提出要"坚持以经济建设为中心"，主要目标突出"高质量发展取 得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高"。在必须遵循的原则方面，会议新增"坚持以经济建设为中 心"，并将其置于"以推动高质量发展为主题"之前，进一步凸显对经济发展的重视。 方正证券首席宏观经济学家燕翔："十五五"时期，中国资本市场将大有作为。一方面，资本市场在服务 实体 ...

Core Insights - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining the guiding principles and main objectives for China's economic and social development over the next five years [1][3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving basic socialist modernization, linking the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with the long-term goals set for 2035 [3][4] - The plan emphasizes high-quality development as the primary goal, with a focus on building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy [4][6] Economic Growth and Development - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion RMB by 2025, with an expected increase of over 35 trillion RMB, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1] - The upcoming five years are expected to create an additional market space of about 10 trillion RMB through the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, while new and emerging industries are anticipated to generate a scale equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry over the next decade [6] International Cooperation and Openness - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes a dedicated section on expanding high-level openness, emphasizing the creation of a win-win cooperation landscape and promoting trade innovation and bilateral investment [6] - China's approach to openness is shifting from "catching up" to "leading," aiming to provide more stable development expectations for the world [6][7] Strategic Vision - The plan reflects a long-term vision with consistent goals, indicating that China will continue to focus on its development despite external uncertainties [7] - The international community is increasingly interested in understanding the "secrets" behind China's governance and its potential as a pillar of global growth and stability [3][4]