证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 09 年 月 日 12 月 PPI 同比下降 1.9%，环比上涨 0.2%，有色、煤炭行业仍然拉动 较大。输入性因素仍然影响国内有色金属相关行业，有色金属矿采选业、 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比分别上涨 3.7%和 2.8%。产能治理及 季节性需求因素下，煤炭开采和洗选业、煤炭加工价格环比分别上涨 1.3% 和 0.8%，均连续 5 个月上涨。需求季节性增加也带动燃气生产和供应业、 电力热力生产和供应业价格分别上涨 1.2%和 1.0%。全国统一大市场建设 纵深推进，相关行业价格同比降幅持续收窄，新质生产力相关行业价格同 比上涨。提振消费专项行动深入实施背景下，文体类、品质类消费较快增 长，工艺美术及礼仪用品制造价格上涨 23.3%。12 月生活资料 PPI 同比 下降 1.3%，降幅相比上月缩窄 0.2 个百分点。 物价回升受短期、单一商品因素影响大，对融资需求影响有限。本月 CPI 同比涨幅扩大主要由食品价格涨幅扩大拉动，其中鲜菜和鲜果尤为明显， 但这属于供给端的短期、季节性因素，且 12 月中下旬以来菜价已有所回 落，后续物价 ...

中国PPI连续3个月环比上涨 中新社北京1月9日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局9日公布，2025年12月，中国工业生产者出厂价格指 数(PPI)环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析称，供需结构改善带动部分行业价格上涨。重点行业产能治理 与市场竞争秩序综合整治持续显效，去年12月，煤炭开采和洗选业、煤炭加工价格环比分别上涨1.3% 和0.8%，均连续5个月上涨；新能源车整车制造价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为上涨0.1%。 与此同时，需求季节性增加带动燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业价格环比分别上涨1.2%和 1.0%，羽绒加工、毛纺织染整精加工价格也环比上涨。 去年12月，中国PPI同比下降1.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。随着各项宏观政策持续显效，部分行 业价格呈现积极变化。 董莉娟提到，市场竞争秩序不断优化，煤炭开采和洗选业、锂离子电池制造、光伏设备及元器件制造价 格同比降幅比上月分别收窄2.9个、1.2个和0.4个百分点，已分别连续收窄5个月、4个月和9个月。 新质生产力培育壮大，也带动相关行业价格同比上涨。如外存储设备及部 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the highest increase since August 2023[2] - The cumulative CPI for January to December 2025 was 0.0%, indicating a stagnation in price growth over the year[1] - The main drivers for the December CPI increase included rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather, consumer promotion policies boosting appliance and vehicle prices, and an increase in international gold prices[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.2% decline in November, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% for the year[1] - The December PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of rising prices[6] - Key factors contributing to the PPI changes included improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific increases of 3.7% and 2.8% in mining and refining respectively[7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 was characterized by weak demand and a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, leading to a continued decline in PPI[10] - Looking ahead to January 2026, the CPI is expected to drop to around 0.2% year-on-year due to a higher base effect from the previous year and seasonal price fluctuations[5] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a continued low inflation environment, with an expected annual CPI of approximately 0.4%[5]

据国家统计局网站，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.8%。 其中，城市上涨0.9%，农村上涨0.6%；食品价格上涨1.1%，非食品价格上涨0.8%；消费品价格上涨 1.0%，服务价格上涨0.6%。 12月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2%；食品价格上涨 0.3%，非食品价格上涨0.1%；消费品价格上涨0.3%，服务价格持平。 2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年12月份CPI和PPI数据 12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商 品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 一、CPI环比由降转涨，同比涨幅继续扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2% CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，环比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。扣除 能源的工业消费品 ...

国家知识产权局信息显示，广东省建筑工程集团股份有限公司取得一项名为"一种耐磨耐腐蚀螺旋桩"的 专利，授权公告号CN223766811U，申请日期为2024年12月。 专利摘要显示，本实用新型属于光伏支架安装设备技术领域，具体涉及一种耐磨耐腐蚀螺旋桩。包括桩 体，所述桩体的插入端设有圆锥体，所述桩体上设有螺旋叶片；所述桩体表面设有第一涂层，所述第一 涂层外表面设置第二涂层。所述第一涂层为镀锌层，所述第二涂层为聚偏二氟乙烯涂层。本实用新型能 够增加螺旋桩的耐磨耐腐蚀性能，延长螺纹桩使用寿命。同时还能够保护桩体金属表面，防止导电性能 下降，确保接地性能稳定，保障光伏系统安全运行。降低维护成本。 广东水电二局集团有限公司，成立于2013年，位于广州市，是一家以从事建筑安装业为主的企业。企业 注册资本150000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，广东水电二局集团有限公司共对外投资了23家企 业，参与招投标项目584次，财产线索方面有商标信息15条，专利信息149条，此外企业还拥有行政许可 21个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 天眼查资料显示，广东省建筑工程集 ...

Economic Performance Overview - Beijing's economy showed positive trends in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and consumer spending from January to November, with industrial added value increasing by 6.6% year-on-year [1] - The sales output of large-scale industries reached 24,819.3 billion yuan, growing by 6.7%, with domestic sales accounting for 22,893.1 billion yuan, also up by 6.7% [1] Industrial Growth - Key industries such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew by 22.3%, while automotive manufacturing increased by 17.1% [1] - Strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing added value rose by 16.5% and 8.4% respectively, with significant production increases in new energy vehicles (150%), lithium-ion batteries (110%), wind power generators (37%), and service robots (21.7%) [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.8%, with equipment purchase investment for expanding production capacity surging by 67.6%, representing 30.9% of total fixed asset investment [1] - Investment in high-tech industries grew by 43.2%, driven primarily by information transmission, software, and IT services, as well as scientific research and technical services [1] Consumer Market Improvement - The total consumption market in Beijing improved, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [2] - The average growth of retail sales of consumer goods in October and November was 5.3%, marking the highest level of growth for the year [2]

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in November have shown positive effects, with a focus on strengthening domestic circulation, leading to stable economic growth and a favorable environment for achieving annual targets [1] Economic Performance - Industrial production maintained steady growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in November, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - The service sector also saw growth, with a production index increase of 4.2%, particularly in information transmission and business services, which grew by 12.9% and 8.4% respectively [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating a slight acceleration in growth [2] - Foreign trade showed resilience, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 4.1% year-on-year in November, a significant acceleration compared to the previous month [2] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, while consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of increase [2] Energy Supply and Investment - Energy supply has been strengthened to meet winter demands, with industrial crude oil, natural gas, and electricity production increasing by 2.2%, 5.7%, and 2.7% respectively in November [3] - Investment in accommodation, catering, wholesale, and retail sectors grew by 7.1% each, and electricity and heat production and supply saw a 12.5% increase [3] New Production Capacity and Industrial Upgrades - The development of new productive forces has accelerated, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% from January to November, and smart consumer equipment manufacturing growing by 7.6% [4] - Traditional industries are undergoing transformation, with biomass fuel processing value added rising by 15.6%, contributing to the growth of the petroleum processing industry [4] - The digital economy is also on the rise, with the value added of large-scale digital product manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [4] Consumption and Investment Potential - Consumption potential continues to be released, with retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment growing by 11.7% and 20.6% respectively in November [7] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards new consumption models [7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but project investment excluding real estate development grew by 0.8% [7] - Investment potential remains significant, with ongoing measures to promote investment growth in various sectors, including education, healthcare, and public services [8]

21世纪经济报道 记者周潇枭 见习记者张旭 北京报道 12月15日，国家统计局公布了11月经济数据。1-11月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比下降2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资， 全国固定资产投资增长0.8%。 值得注意的是，今年1-11月，信息服务业、航空航天器及设备制造业、汽车制造业投资同比分别增长29.6%、19.7%、15.3%，高于全部投资 32.2、22.3、17.9个百分点。 北京大学经济学院教授、国民经济研究中心主任苏剑向21世纪经济报道记者表示："技术含量相对较高的高技术产业投资逆势增长，投资增速 相对较高。反映出高技术含量产业投资集中，产业结构变化，产业升级的趋势。" 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，从未来看，我国投资潜力和空间依然巨大，推动新质生产力发展，促进城乡区 域协调发展，强化教育、医疗、住房、基本公共服务等民生保障，满足人民美好生活需要，都需要持续加大投入。"对于投资下降，近期相关 部门推出了不少促进投资增长的措施，尤其是注重提高投资效益、注重激发民间投资的活力，相信相关政策逐步显效，有利于投资稳步回 升。" 从数据来看，民生保障被放在 ...

全年粮食稳定在1.4万亿斤以上 数据显示，2025年全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤 以上。 付凌晖表示，今年我国夏粮稳产丰收，早稻实现增产，秋粮产量增加，全年粮食再获丰收，为民生保障 和居民增收打下坚实基础。 与此同时，各地加大能源保供力度，有力保障冬季生产生活用能需求。居民出行、购物等新业态新场景 加快建设，民生基础设施不断完善。据统计，1—11月份，住宿和餐饮业、批发和零售业、电力热力生 产和供应业投资同比分别增长7.1%、7.1%和12.5%。 权威解读。 12月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会。国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计 司司长付凌晖在会上对11月经济运行情况进行介绍，并回答媒体记者提问。 付凌晖表示，11月份生产增势平稳、市场销售扩大、外贸韧性彰显、就业物价稳定、民生保障有力，经 济延续了稳中有进的发展态势。值得注意的是，"两重""两新"等政策措施深入实施，促进了市场需求释 放，拉动相关产品生产，带动工业生产增长，也支持了产业升级。同时，居民出行、购物等新业态新场 景加快建设，民生基础设施不断完善，民生投入也在持 ...