本报讯(记者李晞)记者11月20日从省统计局获悉，今年以来全省坚守稳中求进工作总基调，持续加力稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动各项宏观政策落地见效，前10月经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进， 工业、消费、服务业等关键领域呈现诸多亮点。 工业经济延续稳健增长态势。1—10月，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，工业生产韧性持续显 现。10月当月，规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，其中高端制造领域表现亮眼：装备制造业、高技术制 造业、数字核心产品制造业分别增长8.0%、11.7%、9.4%，增速高于整体水平；计算机通信和其他电子 设备制造业、铁路船舶航空航天和其他运输设备制造业分别实现12.3%、18.1%的增长，彰显江苏工业 转型升级的坚实成效。 消费市场持续回暖，内需潜力稳步释放。1—10月，全省社会消费品零售总额达38816.8亿元，同比增长 4.0%。10月当月，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长7.4%，计算机及其配套产品类 更是增长48%，升级类、数码类消费需求旺盛。从累计数据看，1—10月全省限额以上批发业、零售业 销售额分别增长5.1%、7.6%，限额以上住宿业、餐饮业营业额分别增长 ...

消费需求加快释放，升级类商品销售快速增长。10月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2673.23亿元、同比 增长4.1%，增速比上月加快0.2个百分点，高于全国1.2个百分点、领先幅度扩大0.3个百分点。1—10 月，全省社会消费品零售总额23723.16亿元、同比增长6.0%，增速高于全国1.7个百分点。 高质量发展扎实推进，现代化产业体系加快形成。制造业转型升级加快。10月份，全省规模以上高技术 制造业、工业战略性新兴产业增加值同比分别增长19.0%、16.5%，比上月分别加快2.2个、2.4个百分 点。新兴动能培育壮大。1—10月，全省高技术制造业投资同比增长6.7%，高于全省固定资产投资增速 2.2个百分点。绿色发展步伐稳健。10月份，全省规模以上节能环保产业增加值同比增长9.0%，高于规 模以上工业增加值增速1.1个百分点；规模以上工业清洁可再生能源发电量同比增长10.2%。（记者 胡 舒彤） 责任编辑： 何山 11月15日，记者从省统计局获悉，10月份，全省主要经济指标增速加快、持续高于全国平均水平且领先 优势扩大，经济运行保持稳中向好持续向好态势，经济发展实现质的有效提升、量的合理增长、势的蓄 积壮大。 ...

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of the year, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The GDP growth rates for each quarter were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3 [1] - The total economic output in Q3 was 35.5 trillion yuan, surpassing the projected total for the world's third-largest economy in 2024 [1] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 3.0% [1] - Industrial investment increased by 6.4%, contributing 2.1 percentage points to overall investment growth [2] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 6.1%, with information service investment growing significantly by 33.1% [2] Sectoral Performance - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to total investment growth [2] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 4.6%, with notable growth in food processing (14.3%) and food manufacturing (10.8%) [2] - Investment in electricity and heat production and supply surged by 17.9% [2] Innovation and Policy Support - The development of new productive forces, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, saw an increase in value added by 9.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots and service robots grew by 29.8% and 16.3%, respectively [3] - Macro policies have been effectively implemented to stabilize economic operations, with recent measures aimed at expanding service consumption [3][4] Future Outlook - The foundation for achieving annual economic targets is solid, but continued efforts are necessary [4] - The focus remains on balancing short-term growth with long-term development, enhancing internal economic dynamics, and deepening reforms in key areas [4]

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter [2] - The total economic output in the third quarter was 35.5 trillion yuan, surpassing the projected total for the world's third-largest economy in 2024 [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [3] - Excluding real estate development, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0% [3] - Industrial investment increased by 6.4%, contributing 2.1 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with a slight decrease in September [5] - The per capita disposable income for residents was 32,509 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.1% year-on-year [6] - The growth rate of rural residents' income continued to outpace that of urban residents [6] Policy and Economic Support - The government has implemented supportive macroeconomic policies to stabilize economic performance [8] - New quality productivity is being cultivated, contributing to high-quality development and innovation [7] - Positive indicators, such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rebounding for two consecutive months, suggest accumulating favorable conditions for the economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the recent increase in M1 growth cannot be fully explained by the low base effect from "manual interest supplementation" and "debt reduction" factors, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for M1 growth due to real improvements in the liquidity of certain enterprises [1] Industry Analysis - The report highlights significant improvements in liquidity for industries such as electricity and heat production and supply, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing, which may lead to a more optimistic outlook for the continued prosperity of these sectors [1] - The resilience of M1 growth further supports the likelihood that the PPI turning point has been confirmed, indicating a more favorable price transmission from upstream to downstream industries, particularly for those with significant improvements in liquidity [1]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment in Jiangsu - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu province decreased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to August [1] - Infrastructure investment showed growth, increasing by 2.5% year-on-year, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] - Large-scale infrastructure projects (over 1 billion) saw a 6.5% increase in investment, driving infrastructure growth by 3.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The electricity, heat production, and supply sector grew by 34.2%, while railway transportation and water transportation sectors increased by 17.4% and 19.3%, respectively [1] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with investment declining by 4.3% year-on-year, although 14 out of 31 major industries experienced growth [1] - Notable growth in automotive manufacturing (13.5%), textile industry (29.7%), and rubber and plastic products (3.9%) [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in Jiangsu decreased by 18.2% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The sales area of commercial housing also fell by 7.6% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating by 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 4: Equipment Investment and Consumer Spending - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 4.1% year-on-year, accounting for 19.3% of total investment, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in the wholesale and retail sector (33.4%) and information technology services (43.8%) [2] - In August, retail sales of major goods under the "old for new" policy increased by 2.2%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall retail growth [2]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The rise in core CPI is attributed to effective consumption-boosting policies, with the industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy also seeing an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][4] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease, as the supply of food remained ample [3][5] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of 2.9%, the first reduction in the decline since March, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - Prices in key industries such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing experienced a reduction in year-on-year decline, reflecting better market conditions due to the ongoing construction of a unified national market [5][6] - Emerging industries and technological innovations are positively impacting prices, with specific sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing seeing a year-on-year price increase of 1.1% [7][8]

Group 1 - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after a 0.2% decline in July, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to July [1][2] - The improvement in core CPI signals a positive consumption recovery, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1][4] Group 2 - The PPI's month-on-month stabilization and narrowing year-on-year decline are attributed to improved supply-demand structures and the effects of policy measures [2][4] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, experienced price increases, contributing to the stabilization of the PPI [2][3] - The overall positive changes in price dynamics are expected to lay a solid foundation for future economic recovery, with ongoing effects from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In August, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [1][2] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases, with the tail effect from last year's price changes contributing approximately -0.9 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with significant contributions from gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 36.7% and 29.8%, respectively [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline was narrower by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction in the decline since March [4] - The month-on-month PPI change shifted from a decline of 0.2% to flat, influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain energy and raw material sectors, with coal processing prices rising by 9.7% [4] - The narrowing of the PPI decline was also supported by the ongoing optimization of domestic market competition, with significant reductions in price declines for coal processing and black metal smelting industries [5] Group 3: Service Price Trends - Service prices have shown a gradual increase since March, with an August rise of 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the CPI, driven by stable price increases in domestic services such as housekeeping and hairdressing [3] - Medical and educational service prices also saw year-on-year increases of 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, indicating a broader trend of rising service costs [3] Group 4: Emerging Industry Trends - New growth drivers in emerging industries are contributing to price increases in specific sectors, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 1.1%, and shipbuilding prices increasing by 0.9% [5][6] - The demand for upgraded consumer goods is also driving price increases in various manufacturing sectors, such as a 13.0% rise in the prices of arts and crafts products [6]

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]