Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the implications of Trump's tariff war on the global economy, particularly focusing on the strategies and responses of various economic entities, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the broader international context [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Psychological Bottom Line - Trump's key demands in the tariff negotiations include a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and specific measures targeting China, Canada, and Mexico [5][6][8]. - The 10% baseline tariff is seen as a potential concession point for Trump, aimed at preventing trade loopholes and increasing fiscal revenue [6]. - Protective tariffs on industries such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles are intended to limit competition and protect American jobs, with tariffs already set at 25% for steel and aluminum [7]. Group 2: Trump's Game Strategy - The U.S. holds a strategic advantage in the tariff war due to its position as the largest global demand-side economy, allowing it to dictate terms to other economies [10]. - Trump's unpredictable behavior in tariff announcements serves to increase the decision-making costs for opponents, maintaining strategic flexibility [11]. - The U.S. is shifting from multilateral frameworks like the WTO to bilateral negotiations, using tariffs as leverage to reshape trade relationships [10]. Group 3: China's Response - China has demonstrated a strong and rapid response to U.S. tariffs, indicating both the necessity and capability to counteract U.S. measures [15][16]. - The trade conflict is characterized as a repeated prisoner's dilemma, where mutual cooperation is beneficial, but unilateral concessions would disadvantage China [15]. - China's economic resilience and strategic reforms are expected to mitigate the impacts of the tariff war, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency [18]. Group 4: Responses from Other Economies - Canada has taken a firm stance against U.S. tariffs, leveraging its economic ties with the U.S. to push back effectively, while Mexico has shown a more passive response due to its dependency on the U.S. [22][23]. - Other economies like the EU, Japan, and India have exhibited a tendency to negotiate rather than retaliate, reflecting their reliance on the U.S. and a lack of unified response strategies [25][26]. - The EU's delayed response to U.S. tariffs highlights internal divisions and a lack of cohesive strategy compared to China's swift actions [26].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's claim that China will lose 10 million jobs due to tariffs is criticized as exaggerated and unfounded, with actual calculations suggesting a maximum of 600,000 jobs based on U.S. labor statistics [1][3] - The U.S. manufacturing jobs have significantly decreased from 17.3 million in 2000 to 12.3 million, while productivity has increased by 60%, indicating that automation and offshoring are the real culprits behind job losses, not China [3][5] - The imposition of tariffs has led to increased prices for American consumers, with specific examples showing price hikes of 38% for bicycles and 52% for fans in Walmart, highlighting the immediate impact on the retail sector [5][7] Group 2 - The trade surplus between China and the U.S. reached a record high of $382.9 billion in 2023, demonstrating the resilience of China's export economy despite tariffs [5][7] - The U.S. attempts to decouple technology from China have backfired, as China's semiconductor imports fell by 27% while domestic chip production surged by 40%, indicating a shift in the global supply chain dynamics [7][8] - The narrative of job threats from China is seen as a reflection of U.S. hegemonic anxieties, with the U.S. struggling to balance its financial empire with the need for a robust manufacturing base [7][8]

每经记者 叶晓丹 每经编辑 张海妮 据央视新闻，4月下旬，有美国CNN记者采访义乌小商品城一商户老板娘聂自勤，面对"对等关税"下如何处理美国客户的退单，她坚定果决的回应在社交媒 体上走红，也因此被网友称为"义乌最牛老板娘"。 高峰期，聂自勤经营的万圣节礼品批发业务一年可达到6000万元体量，其中50%的采购客户来自美国。 "如果美国（客户）不要，那我就给南美客户。"聂自勤接受CNN记者采访当天，恰好有南美客户在店里采购产品，一周时间过去了，之前给聂自勤下订单的 美国客户并没有取消订单，而是选择了观望，等待转机的到来。 4月底，《每日经济新闻》记者从相关进出口协会了解到，国内部分供应商已接到沃尔玛恢复供货的通知，且关税成本由美国客户承担。聂自勤一边等美国 客户的通知，一边也在想办法"主动出击"，通过开拓多元市场和加大内销等渠道，来减轻因货物积压带来的影响。 2007年跟随父亲从河南来义乌创业，聂自勤在义乌一待就是18年，14平方米的店铺如今价值千万元。她从做代工起家，高峰期一度拥有上千名员工。国际经 贸的波动，在这一爿小小的批发店铺里，总能给她带来最直接的影响。聂自勤坦言，市场会洗出去一些掉队的人，但这是义乌市 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the unilateral tariff measures announced by the United States are reckless and detrimental to global markets, disrupting trade and supply chains, particularly affecting underdeveloped economies [2][3] - The U.S. is attempting to hinder the economic development of China and other emerging market countries, which is seen as a futile effort that ultimately harms the global economic system [2] - The imposition of tariffs and the disruption of supply chains will complicate the global economic recovery process, with negotiations for new agreements likely to be challenging and frustrating [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government's claims that its tariff measures are "fair" and "reciprocal" are dismissed as absurd, ignoring the realities faced by many underdeveloped economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [3] - The actions of the U.S. are characterized as a brutal attack aimed at obstructing the emergence and development of new production centers, despite the U.S. having a significant advantage in wealth and power over these countries [3] - In contrast, China is taking calm measures to respond to U.S. tariffs, focusing on building stronger trade and communication networks with economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which are expected to grow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's CEO compares the current tariff war to the COVID-19 pandemic, expressing optimism that the company will emerge stronger from this situation, similar to its performance during the pandemic [2][5]. Financial Guidance Expanded - To address tariff uncertainties, Amazon has widened its operational profit guidance for Q2 to between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, while market expectations were around $17.8 billion [5][4]. - The CFO noted that ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade policies have led to this broader guidance range [5][6]. Maintaining Low Prices - To mitigate the impact of tariffs and maintain low prices, Amazon has preemptively removed certain products from its platform [7][9]. - The CEO emphasized the company's focus on keeping prices low, despite the unpredictable outcomes of tariffs [9][10]. AWS Capacity Expansion - AWS has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit margins increasing, driven by the rapid growth of generative AI and accelerated cloud migration [12][21]. - The CEO mentioned that AWS's AI business is running at a multi-billion dollar annual revenue rate, growing at triple-digit percentages [12][27]. Advertising Growth - Amazon's advertising revenue reached $13.9 billion in Q1, marking a 19% year-over-year increase, indicating strong demand for its advertising services [20][33]. - The company continues to invest in expanding its advertising capabilities to support brands of all sizes [20][33]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its delivery and transportation network productivity through a redesigned inbound network, which optimizes inventory layout and increases shipping volume [31][32]. - Amazon's focus on enhancing its logistics infrastructure aims to reduce delivery costs and improve service efficiency [32][35]. Customer Trust and Market Share - During uncertain market conditions, customers tend to choose trusted suppliers, and Amazon's extensive selection, low prices, and fast delivery have helped it gain market share [19][2]. - The company believes that its diverse seller base allows it to better navigate challenges and maintain competitive pricing [19][47].

金十数据5月2日讯，Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir指出，货币政策现在可能会根据今天报 告的强度来制定，但如果考虑到修正值和一些细节，该报告并不完全是很好的。在我看来，最大的风险 是，这份非农报告可能鼓励特朗普政府在他们的关税策略上更加激进，因为这可能被视为他们的关税策 略正在发挥作用并正在创造就业机会（尽管制造业就业减少了1千个）。考虑到市场对贸易局势缓和的 积极反应，任何加倍关税（而不是达成交易）都不会是好事。 机构：这份报告可能助涨特朗普政府关税战的气焰 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent trading pattern for gold shows a consistent decline during the Asian session, followed by a rebound in the US session, with a significant drop of $88 to a low of 3202 before recovering [1][3] - The breaking of the downward trend since reaching a peak of 3500 indicates a potential reversal, with a short-term support level established around 3200 [1][5] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is expected to be favorable for gold, with a market consensus predicting an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly lower than the previous 228,000, which could lead to a short-term rally in gold prices [3][4] Group 2: Market Indicators and Predictions - The US dollar index has shown a rebound but is expected to face resistance, with the focus on the non-farm payroll data for further direction [4] - The overall sentiment in the gold market suggests that excessive bearishness may not be warranted, as a rebound is anticipated before any further declines [5] - The S&P futures have broken through resistance levels, indicating potential upward movement towards historical highs unless significant resistance is encountered at the 5750 level [6][7] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on buying on dips, particularly around the support levels of 58.5 and 56.5, with a target of 65 for the upside [9]

Core Viewpoint - The negative impacts of the U.S. tariff policy have exceeded market expectations, causing troubles for the U.S. economy and increasing uncertainty in the global economy, reminiscent of the disastrous effects of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s [1][7]. Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, initiated in 1929, aimed to protect U.S. agricultural interests by significantly raising tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, with rates reaching as high as 60% [2][3]. - The act faced strong opposition from academia and business but was signed into law by President Hoover, leading to retaliatory tariffs from other countries and igniting a global trade war [2][3]. Economic Consequences - Following the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, U.S. imports from Europe plummeted from $1.334 billion in 1929 to $390 million in 1932, while exports dropped from $2.341 billion to $784 million, resulting in a 67% decrease in trade volume [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate soared to 25.1% by 1933, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 89% from its peak in 1929 [3][4]. - The global trade volume and industrial output also suffered, with a 66% decline in global trade and a 33% drop in industrial output by 1934 [3][4]. Modern Implications - The current U.S. tariff policies, initiated under the Trump administration and continued by the Biden administration, have not achieved their intended goals of manufacturing return or trade deficit reduction, instead causing economic damage and loss of credibility [7][8]. - The U.S. agricultural sector faces estimated annual losses exceeding $12 billion due to these tariffs, which are ultimately passed on to consumers, exacerbating inflation risks [7][8]. Global Trade Dynamics - The persistence of high tariffs distorts price signals and hinders global productivity, leading to long-term economic damage [8]. - In today's highly specialized and integrated global economy, the negative impacts of protectionism spread rapidly, disrupting global supply chains and hindering economic growth [8][9].

特朗普（资料图） 其实，清醒的人早就看清，特朗普的"关税战"本质上是借助关税武器剥削全世界，给"美国优先"买单。 特朗普在就职演说里赤裸裸地表示，他收外国的关税是为了增加美国一家之利，哪管他国洪水滔天。在 国际分工深度融合、各国利益紧密相连的全球化时代，这种自私自利、损人而肥的行为，严重损害了全 球各国包括美国自身的利益，不仅让"美国反对美国"，更让"世界反对美国"。 特朗普和贝森特（资料图） 据报道，美国总统特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室举行的记者会上表示，对中国商品加征的高关税将"大幅 下降"。当被问到是否会对中国采取"强硬态度"时，特朗普称："不，我不会说'我要对中方强硬'。我们 会以非常友好的态度对待他们，他们也会友好相待，然后我们拭目以待会发生什么。"在谈到高达145% 的对华关税时，他称，"145%的税率非常高，它不应该这么高。它会大幅下降，但不会为零" 。 特朗普当天的表态虽有软化，却依旧拧巴。一方面，他明确对华释放友好谈判的信号，"我们以非常友 好的态度对待中方，他们也会友好相待。"在记者追问是否维持强硬立场时，他明确否认："不，我不会 说'要对中方强硬'。"但同时，他仍不忘虚张声势，声称若谈判失败 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations, emphasizing the short-term economic impact on China and proposing three strategies to mitigate these effects: expanding domestic demand, encouraging companies to go global, and reducing production capacity [1][6][12]. Group 1: Short-term Economic Impact - The tariff war poses a significant short-term challenge to the Chinese economy, with potential GDP impact estimated at 1.5 to 2 percentage points [8][12]. - There is a concern that some narratives downplay the impact on China, which may not be based on objective analysis [3][6]. Group 2: Proposed Strategies - **Expanding Domestic Demand**: It is suggested to increase the fiscal deficit by an additional 1 to 1.5 trillion RMB to stimulate consumption, alongside long-term reforms to enhance social welfare [6][7]. - **Encouraging Global Expansion**: Companies are encouraged to explore international markets, with many planning IPOs in Hong Kong to raise capital for expansion beyond Southeast Asia [7][8]. - **Reducing Production Capacity**: The article highlights the challenges of reducing production capacity due to historical reliance on supply-side policies and the need for a shift in development focus [7][8]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - Most countries are unlikely to reach quick agreements with the US, which could prolong the global trade downturn and its effects on China [11][12]. - The complexity of US-China negotiations suggests that any reduction in tariffs will take time, with expectations for some tariffs to decrease by mid-year but more significant reductions possibly not occurring until late in the year [12][14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The article notes a shift in investor sentiment towards China, with increased interest from global investors, although concerns remain about China's ability to maintain a role in global free trade [8][18]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform relatively well, supported by government interventions, despite concerns from overseas investors regarding the underlying economic fundamentals [14][15].